Category: FANTASY

I’ve been playing, and winning at Fantasy Sports since the very beginning.  Pay close attention to my analysis, and win big.

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MOST IMPORTANT PICKS OF THE 2019 NFL DRAFT

Kyler Murray – Arizona Cardinals – Round 1 Pick 1

The Arizona Cardinals did what I expected and selected Kyler Murray with the first pick. This would come as a surprise to some because they already had Josh Rosen who they picked 10th overall last season. What this means is that the hiring of Kliff Kingsbury was a calculated gamble to not only switch to his Air Raid Offensive scheme, but acquire Kyler Murray to run it as their Quarterback of the future. Kyler Murray is a two sport athlete and had already been selected by the Oakland Athletics in the first Round of the Major League Baseball draft. This adds a considerable amount of risk to selecting him first overall. What if the Arizona Cardinals aren’t a success? What if Kliff Kingsbury’s system doesn’t work in the NFL? Kyler Murray is significantly undersized as NFL quarterbacks go, so there will always be injury concerns. What if Kyler Murray decides that baseball is a better fit? Lastly what if Josh Rosen, now a Miami Dolphin goes on to have a hugely successful career? That’s a lot of what ifs when you are talking about the number 1 pick in the NFL draft.

Clelin Ferrell – Oakland Raiders – Round 1 Pick 4

The Oakland Raiders, and in this case more specifically Mike Mayock selected Clelin Ferrell 4th overall. What makes this a particularly important pick for the Oakland Raiders is that practically every analyst including myself expected them to select somebody else. Somebody better to be honest. Clelin Ferrell wasn’t as highly rated as a number of other players in the draft so his selection came as a surprise to everyone. Josh Allen went after him. Ed Oliver went after him. Devin White went after him. That’s three players that were seen as potential stars on whichever team selected them. Mike Mayock and especially Clelin Ferrell will be judged by how well he performs in comparison to the players selected after him. Mayock has gone on record as saying that Clelin Ferrell has not only the skill but the character to be a leader on the field for the Oakland Raiders. Now that’s either a clever way of saying that he might not be the best player at his position, but he will make up for it with leadership, or that they had concerns about potential character flaws with the other players available. Whatever it may be Clelin Ferrell was a risky pick at 4th overall.

Daniel Jones – New York Giants – Round 1 Pick 6

As surprising as the Raider selection of Ferrell was. The selection of Daniel Jones by the New York Giants two picks later was totally shocking. Aspirin sales probably spiked in New York the next day because fans woke up with a headache. When ranking Quarterbacks before the draft I had Dwayne Haskins first, Kyler Murray second, Drew Lock third, and then who cares. The remaining Quarterbacks I saw as second round or later selections. Most analysts did, although Daniel Jones had become somewhat relevant leading up to the draft. By relevant I mean it was looking like depending on what happened early Daniel Jones could sneak into the first Round. He did more than sneak. He was selected 6th overall! Even Daniel Jones was shocked to be selected so early. He will be compared to every Quarterback selected after him, and it was obvious that he considers at least a few of them to be better Quarterbacks. Talk about a pick that Giants fans deserve to feel worried about.

Montez Sweat – Washington Redskins – Round 1 Pick 26

Was this pick a total steal, or have the Washington Redskins been duped? Montez Sweat has the size and skill to become a dominant pass rusher in the NFL. Before the draft there was conflicting information regarding his health. Specifically a heart condition which could limit his time on the field. Early reports were that teams should be concerned about the situation but news surfaced on the day of the draft that early reports were incorrect or at least overblown. As Montez Sweat continued to fall in the first Round while other pass rushers quickly came off the board. The Washington Redskins decided to trade back into the first Round to grab him at 26th overall. I have a feeling that they got an absolute steal but it remains to be seen.

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TOP 10 NFL FREE AGENCY ACQUISITIONS 2019

1 – ODELL BECKHAM JR.

CLEVELAND BROWNS

Adding Odell Beckham Jr. instantly makes the Cleveland Browns Receiving Duo of Beckham and Landry one of the most dangerous tandems in the league. It will allow Jarvis Landry to line up in the slot position where he is more naturally suited. I would argue that Julian Edelman and Jarvis Landry are the two best Slot Receivers in the league. Both OBJ and Landry are difficult to cover with one on one. You can’t double cover both so Baker Mayfield should find one of them open quite often.

2 – NICK FOLES

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

Jacksonville never really seemed like a legitimate threat with Blake Bortles under center. They gave us a glimpse of what was possible with just average Quarterback play in 2017. They finished the season 10 – 6, won the AFC South, beat Buffalo in the Wild Card game, then defeated Pittsburgh in the Divisional game, to finally lose to the New England Patriots in the AFC Championship game. They actually had the lead going into the fourth quarter of the AFC Championship, but Bortles choked under the pressure. You know who doesn’t choke under pressure? Superbowl MVP Nick Foles. Foles brings a lot of confidence, and a little bit of swagger to a team that could really use some. With Foles as their Quarterback I believe that the Jacksonville Jaguars will go from being a team that hopes to win, to a team that begins games expecting to win.

3 – ANTONIO BROWN

OAKLAND RAIDERS

Jon Gruden took over as the Oakland Raiders Head Coach and has systematically deconstructed the team. Gone are all of it’s Star Players except for the one he chose to keep, Quarterback Derek Carr. With three picks in the first Round of this year’s draft the Oakland Raiders look ready to rebuild. Their first move came before the draft, and that was to acquire the number 1 Wide Receiver in the league Antonio Brown. I can guarantee you that David Carr is happy. After watching Amari Cooper get traded to the Cowboys, Jared Cook get signed by the Saints, and Jordy Nelson announce his retirement. Derek Carr could use a reliable target. As great as he is Antonio Brown isn’t enough. The Raiders will have to find another quality Wide Receiver to compliment him.

4 – JUSTIN HOUSTON

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

The Indianapolis Colts were sneaky good on Defense last Season with a relative bunch of unknowns on their roster. Adding a veteran like Justin Houston is exactly what that young group of Linebackers, and Defensive Lineman need. With the kind of quick starts Andrew Luck is capable of Justin Houston will be able to do what he does best. That’s make things very uncomfortable for opposing Quarterbacks.

5 – LE’VEON BELL

NEW YORK JETS

The time is finally approaching for the return of Le’Veon Bell to the football field. For the first time in his NFL career he won’t be in a Steelers uniform. He will be wearing New York Jets Green and White. Will it prove to be a good fit? This is one of the more difficult moves to predict. How much of Le’Veon Bell’s success was his own ability, and how much was the Pittsburgh Steelers’ great Offensive line, and high powered Offense? It’s hard to stack the box when Antonio Brown is lined up against you. Who is the number one Wide Receiver on the New York Jets? I couldn’t tell you, and I’m a Fantasy Football analyst. That’s how mediocre their squad is. Can Le’Veon Bell carry this team into relevance? Honestly I hope so, but in order for him to do it they will need Offensive Line help and a solid Wide Receiver.

6 – DEE FORD

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS

The 49ers spent last off season acquiring offensive weapons to provide Quarterback Jimmy Garropolo with the best chance of success. This off season has been about the defense. They added what I believe to be the best pass rusher in Free Agency in Dee Ford. With Dee Ford alongside DeForest Buckner the San Francisco 49ers have the capability or overwhelming one side of the Offensive Line, or crashing the middle. Opposing offenses had better have a solid run game, or it’s going to be open season on their Quarterbacks.

7 – CJ MOSLEY

NEW YORK JETS

Just like the Indianapolis Colts Justin Houston acquisition. The New York Jets needed a true leader on the defensive side of the field. CJ Mosley should prove to be the Leader they were looking for. His ability is unquestioned, and he should make an immediate impact. It remains to be seen if the New York Jets can finally challenge the New England Patriots, but at least it appears as though they are trying.

8 – JARED COOK

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

In case you hadn’t noticed, and I’m sure a lot of you didn’t. Jared Cook had a very impressive season at the Tight End position on the very unimpressive Oakland Raiders. The Oakland Raiders practically began the season trying to lose. Still Jared Cook was a Top 5 Tight End in Fantasy Football despite that. Imagine what he can achieve as a New Orleans Saint with Drew Brees throwing him the ball. The Saints have an impressive offense, and Sean Payton has proven throughout his career that he knows how to utilize Tight Ends. Jared Cook could have an even better Season as a New Orleans Saint. If he does, expect the Saints to once again challenge for a Superbowl.

9 – EARL THOMAS III

BALTIMORE RAVENS

Is he the best Safety in the NFL? When he is healthy, he probably is. That’s the real question here. The way Earl Thomas plays, it can be difficult to remain on the field. There’s no question that he is a perfect fit for the Baltimore Ravens Black and Blue Defense. Honestly I see Earl Thomas as a great fit anywhere. He brings a phenomenal skill set, leadership, and ball hawking ability that very few possess. Still when you play in one of the most brutal divisions in the NFL, health is always a concern. I for one hope he plays the full season.

10 – OLIVIER VERNON

CLEVELAND BROWNS

So my list began with the Cleveland Browns, and ends with another Cleveland Brown acquisition. Olivier Vernon is a merc, plain and simple. The thing about mercs is that they aren’t always a great fit. In this case I expect Olivier Vernon to fit right in. The Cleveland Browns are assembling a motley crew of talented Players who I believe will compliment each other instead of trying to outdo one another. They have the right amount of veterans, and youngsters to gel as a solid unit. Olivier Vernon was the final piece they needed on defense. The rest of the AFC should probably take notice.

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LET THE NFL OFFSEASON HYPE BEGIN!

IT STARTS WITH THE OBVIOUS

The Offseason hype always begins with the most valuable Free Agents, and the projected Top Quarterbacks in the NFL Draft. This year that includes Kyler Murray, Dwayne Haskins, Drew Lock, Le’Veon Bell, Earl Thomas III, and Nick Foles. Two of these Players will most likely land in predictable spots. Kyler Murray has become the obvious number 1 pick of the draft as determined by the poll of popular opinion. Nick Foles will most likely be starting for the Jacksonville Jaguars this season. It’s an obvious fit, and Jacksonville is already begun the process of clearing some Cap room. The remaining Players on the list have some uncertain landing spots. Before I get into that I’ll begin with the single most talked about Player right now …

KYLER MURRAY

Will Kyler Murray go number 1 overall in the draft? I’d say that there is about a 90% chance of that happening. The real question is which team will select him? As of the writing of this article the Arizona Cardinals have the first pick of the NFL Draft. Some NFL insiders have gone on record proclaiming that the Cardinals have already decided to take him with the first pick. There are plenty of reasons to doubt it though. The Arizona Cardinals selected Josh Rosen with the 10th pick overall in the 2018 NFL Draft. Last Season wasn’t a success but that can’t be attributed to Josh Rosen’s play. The first half of the season was a total failure because of poor decisions made by the coaching staff. It took an overhaul of the coaching staff to actually open up the playbook, and provide Josh Rosen with an opportunity to showcase his skills. The Arizona Cardinals looked like a much better team the second half of the season. Josh Rosen wasn’t considered as a reach at the 10th pick either. He was touted by most analysts as the most NFL ready Quarterback. In that same draft people expected the Cleveland Browns to select Sam Darnold with the first pick. I didn’t mind you. I had Baker Mayfield as my number 1 and the Cleveland Browns agreed with me. So just because the masses have chosen Kyler Murray as the top Quarterback, doesn’t necessarily make it so. Another reason there is reason to believe the Arizona Cardinals might pass on Kyler Murray is the plethora of other needs they currently have. Keep in mind that unless you see Josh Rosen as a total bust, then Quarterback isn’t one of their most pressing needs. If I was Steve Keim (General Manager of the Arizona Cardinals) I would be looking to trade down and acquire more picks. Theoretically the more darts you throw in the draft, the better your chances are of hitting the bullseye. Steve Keim’s most recent acquisitions haven’t been very successful. That could be why he might give up on Josh Rosen after only one season, and stake his reputation on what appears to be a safe bet in Kyler Murray. How would it look if he traded down and acquired another four picks, and missed on all of those? Trust me a lot of the decisions being made by General Managers and Coaches in the NFL are motivated by fear.

Is Kyler Murray a safe bet? What constitutes a safe bet at Quarterback in the NFL these days? I really liked Baker Mayfield last year, but did I consider him a safe bet? The answer would be no. I can tell you that I was more secure about Baker Mayfield being the first pick in the NFL Draft in 2018, than I am about Kyler Murray as the first pick this year. You know who entered the league as safe bets? Peyton Manning, Eli Manning, John Elway, Cam Newton, and Troy Aikman. Everyone was certain that those five Quarterbacks would make a significant impact. Obviously they were right because they have 9 Superbowl rings as Quarterbacks between them. The only one that hasn’t won a Superbowl is Cam Newton. Which brings up an important point. Cam is at his best when he can threaten opposing defenses as a runner with the ball as well as a passer. As the league has implemented additional rules to protect Quarterbacks. Those rules become moot when they are running with the ball. Cam Newton might be the most physically imposing Quarterback in the league, but he is also one of the most often injured. There have been some incredibly dynamic Running Quarterbacks, but all of them have had mostly limited success due to injury. Much has been said about Kyler Murray’s lack of size. At only 5’10” tall he has made use of his mobility to create angles to passing lanes, and buy himself extra time in the pocket. That’s fine at the college level but in the NFL it only takes one full shot from a 275 pound linebacker to significantly reduce a Quarterback’s mobility. Look what Von Miller did to Cam Newton in Superbowl 50. Cam Newton wanted the game to be over by the third quarter. Cam Newton is 6’5″ 245 pounds and he had enough. How would 5’10” 195 pound Kyler Murray handle it? Is he a safe bet? I don’t think so.

WHERE WILL LE’VEON BELL BE?

People have been asking this question since November of last year. We still aren’t any closer to figuring it out. The first obstacle to overcome is the cost of acquiring him. Le’Veon Bell is asking for 25 million dollars a year. That’s a hefty price for a Running Back. That’s a high price for a Quarterback. If you look at his numbers and judge his worth based solely on that, then yes he is worth every penny. Unfortunately there is a lot more to it. He just sat out an entire season of football. Which means he could be a problem if he ever disagrees with your Head Coach. He has had some injuries in the past, and plays in one of the most precarious positions in football. There’s no guarantee that he won’t get injured after just a few games. His numbers were excellent with the Pittsburgh Steelers. How much of that was his own ability, and how much of it was attributed to being on one of the most dynamic offenses in football?

Which teams would be the best fit for Le’Veon Bell? He would prefer to go to a contender so that really limits the possible teams. Of course he might just go wherever the money is. Lets begin with the win win scenarios. Maybe the best possible landing spot for Le’Veon Bell is the Indianapolis Colts. Andrew Luck is a Superbowl quality Quarterback. T.Y. Hilton can keep Defenses from stacking the box. The Colts Defense is better than most people give them credit for. They also have a tonne of Cap Space so they could actually afford him. Do they actually want him though? The early indications are that they don’t. A number of teams have looked into Le’Veon Bell already and the Colts aren’t one of them. The Houston Texans are an up and coming team that could benefit from acquiring Le’Veon Bell. They would probably be interested but not at the amount he’s looking for. They just don’t have the Cap Space with quite a few key Players approaching Free Agency. The Baltimore Ravens would be an interesting place for Bell to move to because of the long standing rivalry with the Pittsburgh Steelers. Ozzie Newsome isn’t in the habit of taking on high cost risky Free Agents. He generally builds teams through the draft and develops players. So that appears to be a no go as well. Washington could sign him but they have Derrius Guice coming back from injury at quite a bargain in comparison. You would assume that they would want to see what they have there first. Are you beginning to see a pattern emerge? If Le’Veon Bell wants to be the highest paid Running Back in the NFL. He will probably have to do it with a team that’s currently rebuilding.

AND SO IT BEGINS…

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THE AFC EAST CONSPIRACY

Sure it’s a sport, but it’s also a business

So another NFL Season is in the books, and to no one’s surprise the New England Patriots have won the Superbowl… Again. Chants of them being the greatest dynasty ever, Belichick a coaching genius, and Brady as the goat can be heard in every sports bar. Seems like the second you begin to doubt their dominance, they suddenly get that much better. The truth of the matter is that the sudden performance increase has nothing to do with the Patriots themselves. It has everything to do with their competition.

Last Season the sudden increase in performance began in Week 12 after their Bye Week. The final six weeks of the Season they would face AFC East rivals 4 times. They would go on to win three of those games, and lose to the Pittsburgh Steelers, but beat the Minnesota Vikings. This would prove to be just enough to earn them the Bye going into the playoffs. If you are at all like me, you might be wondering how the New England Patriots have easily defeated their division rivals for a decade? This has always puzzled me. How can an NFL franchise be so inept at developing a team that’s competitive for ten years? A friend of mine, and I were discussing this the other day, and he had an interesting theory.

Maybe the Buffalo Bills, Miami Dolphins, and New York Jets have accepted that the cost to build a team that can challenge the Belichick/Brady combination is just too costly. Why spend the money to acquire quality free agents, or sign your star players to long lucrative contracts. If all you will get back in return is a slim chance to make it into the playoffs as a Wild Card team. Probably the most obvious attempt to have a losing Season came when the Buffalo Bills didn’t keep Tyrod Taylor as their starting Quarterback. The Player who stepped up, and practically willed his team into the Playoffs. In the end it’s possible The Buffalo Bills saw that as an unfortunate loss of Draft capital.

Remember this is just a theory

There have been other Teams, or individuals that have had to deal with this same conundrum. Imagine how F1 Drivers for Williams felt when Michael Schumacher was driving for Ferrari. How do you think Ernie Els felt when Tiger Woods was at the top of his game? Imagine being a Player for the Utah Jazz during Michael Jordan’s run? Would you have spent millions of dollars to marginally improve an individual or teams chances to defeat any of them? The answer is probably not. What’s even more difficult when it comes to the situation in the NFL AFC East, is that in order to unseat the Patriots as favourites. You would have to not only improve your own team, but expect the other teams in the Division to do so as well. It doesn’t help to split your Season series with the New England Patriots if they can just steam roll the other two teams for four wins.

So what is a Franchise Owner to do?

The answer might be to play the long game. How many more years will The Patriots have their Star Power? Will Brady play three more years? Maybe, but I honestly doubt it. What does he have left to play for? He now owns more Superbowl rings than any other Player in NFL history. He is a multiple winner of the League MVP award. He’s over 40, and although the league keeps making it safer for Quarterbacks it only takes one awkward hit to get seriously injured. One of Tom Brady’s favourite targets won’t be around much longer. If Gronkowski doesn’t call it quits this Season, he probably won’t be around for the next one. Who’s willing to bet that if Brady retires, then Belichick will call it quits right after. I’ll make that bet right now. Lets assume that all three are gone in three Seasons. If that’s the case then drafting Quarterbacks that require a bit of coaching up like say Josh Allen, and Sam Darnold seems like a great idea. While they are developing you probably won’t post too many winning Seasons, and you can build a strong group of skill Players around them through the Draft. If they don’t pan out in time, then you should have a lot of Cap space to go out and get a Playoff ready Quarterback in Free Agency.

The point is that when the time comes you’ll be ready, and you won’t have wasted too much money getting there. For fans of these three storied Franchises that can remember what it was like to have Powerhouse teams lead by the likes of Joe Namath, Dan Marino, and Jim Kelly it can’t be easy watching them lose year after year. All I can say to them is that there is light at the end of the tunnel. For the first time in a long time you can begin to see it.

OF COURSE THIS IS JUST A THEORY

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Why I love Keeper Leagues – Sports Fanatics play Fantasy SF-49

Player Appreciation

I’ve been playing Fantasy Football from the very beginning of it’s development.  I always enjoyed it, but it wasn’t until the advent of Keeper Leagues that it became a true love of mine.  Being a part of a league that allows you to retain a couple players from season to season provides you with a small taste of what it feels like to be a general manager in the NFL.  How long do you continue to keep that Star Player that’s done so well for you year after year?  When is it time to let go, and grab a young hungry player with talent looking to make a name for themselves?  What if your Star Player gets hurt and misses the second half of the season?  Do you trust that he will come back healthy, or do you trade him while there’s still some Managers willing to gamble?  These are all questions that you will have to answer at some point if you are in a Keeper League.

Draft Pick Value

Another key aspect to Keeper Leagues that make them far more appealing to me is the ability to trade Draft Picks.  Each year leading up to the Fantasy Football Season you can find loads of information on the perceived Draft Value of each Player.  What you won’t find is how much each of your future Draft Picks could be worth during the Regular Season.  This makes understanding how many Star Players are about to enter the NFL at each Fantasy relevant position next Season.  It’s also important to know how many top level Fantasy Football Players there are in the League.  To make it easier to understand why I’ll provide you with an example.

Lets assume that there will be one Star rookie Running Back, and one Star rookie Wide Receiver entering the league.  Currently there are 30 Top level Fantasy Football Players in the NFL already.  There are also 2 Star Players returning from injury.  Now assume that you are in a 12 team league that allows you to keep 2 Players.  That would mean that 24 of the Top 32 projected Stars are already spoken for.  Depending on how much you trust Players returning from injury.  It would only leave a possible 10 Star Players remaining.  Once those Players have been selected the remaining Players available are Second level Players, and you estimate that there are at least 30 of them.  This means that your 2nd Round Pick has a similar value to your 3rd, and maybe even your 4th Round Pick.  It also means that the last two Picks in the first Round actually only have a 2nd or 3rd Round value to them.   

Now what does this mean to a Manager in a Keeper League?  Well if you have already secured a Playoff spot in this League, but 1 or 2 more wins will guarantee you a First Round Bye.  It might be worth it to trade your 1rst Round Pick and a Player off your bench for a 3rd Round Pick and a Star Player.  Provided you make the Final in this League your 1rst Round Pick will be one of the last two.  In other words the 11th or 12th.  This means that it’s actual value isn’t much better than a 3rd Round Pick anyways.  If you don’t trust Players returning from injury than you could get knocked out in the Semifinals, and still feel good about your trade.  It also provides you with one more option of who to keep for next Season.

Division Rivalry

It’s possible to develop rivalries in Redraft Leagues.  It’s just not the same as having Divisional  Rivalries in Keeper Leagues though.  In a Redraft League it wouldn’t bother me to make a fair trade with a Manager that defeated me last Season.  In my Keeper Leagues though I’m wary of trading a potentially dangerous Player to a Manager in my division.  I’ve actually accepted worse offers from Managers playing against my Rivals in order to hopefully provide them with a win over my divisional opponent.  If a Star Player on a Rival’s team gets injured.  I check the waiver wire to see how many decent replacement Players are available.  If there’s only 1 or 2 I’ll try to snatch them up.  That way my Rival is forced to either make a trade from a position of weakness, or accept having a very weak spot on their team.  No way I go to that extent in Redraft Leagues.

Bragging Rights

There’s nothing worse than joining a Redraft League when there are only 4 ridiculously obvious Fantasy Football studs and you unfortunately get the 5th Pick.  Ultimately when one of the Managers who were lucky enough to get a pick in the first four wins.  They can’t resist bragging about how much of a Fantasy genius they are.  Well in Keeper Leagues winning requires a lot more than luck.  Your draft position is determined by the Season before.  You had better have made the necessary moves to ensure your next Season isn’t a losing one.  That could mean trading for a fantastic young Player to fill a Keeper position for years.  It could mean trading out of the first or second Round to get more middle Round Picks in order to build a team with a lot of depth.  If you really want to be successful in a Keeper League, moves must be made.  If that’s not your thing?  By all means join a Redraft League.

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54-51 Monday Night Madness – Sports Fanatics play Fantasy SF-48

Offensive Explosion

A decade of subtle changes have lead to this.  Touchbacks being brought out to the 25 yard line.  Adding rule after rule to effectively build an iron cage around quarterbacks.  Eliminating those bang-bang plays that saw safeties knock wide receivers right out of the game.  Every year the game gets a little easier for offences, and a little more difficult for defenses.  It was only a matter of time before we began to see teams make the adjustment to teams that are totally dedicated to offense.

Offense wins games, but Defense wins Championships

This was the old adage that defined NFL football.  Does it still hold true?  I’d have to say that I seriously doubt it.  We may have seen that last Defensive juggernaut to win a Superbowl with the Denver Broncos.  I expect the majority of Superbowls going forward to be offensive shootouts, or total blowouts.  My prediction goes way beyond the recent rule changes.  You have to also factor in the number of new super stadiums that have been built, or are in development.  Chances are you won’t see any more Superbowls in adverse weather conditions.  Which brings up another question.  What about all the NFL performance records?

Should new records count?

I don’t know how many times I’ve had this argument.  When people ask me who the greatest Quarterback of all time was I don’t choose Tom Brady.  They get this stunned look on their faces, and ask me why not.  There are three distinct reasons why I don’t believe that Tom Brady is the G.O.A.T.  Reason number 1: he doesn’t have the physical skills of some of the other greats.  This is the most minor of my three reasons but it does factor in.  Reason number 2: he has had the pleasure to play in not only the weakest conference, but the weakest division in that conference for a decade.  Now you might argue that this is by no means any fault of his.  Still having the luxury of knowing you will win your division every year with ease, and essentially beginning every season with 6 automatic wins helps inflate your numbers.  How many more Superbowls would some of the other great quarterbacks have if their division was a total joke?  Reason number 3: he has played in an era that has done everything save making quarterbacks completely untouchable.  This is the biggest reason of all in my opinion.  How many more years could Steve Young, Joe Montana, or John Elway have played if the league had decided to protect them as well?  In the new NFL Tom Brady is so well protected that he could play until he’s 50 if he so pleases.  Of course people will point to the rings, and his impressive numbers.  Well I’ve already covered the rings by explaining how easy his division has been, but what about the passing numbers?

The end of the workhorse Running Back

With all of the recent changes that have been made to protect Quarterbacks and Wide Receivers.  There hasn’t been any real changes to protect Running Backs.  In fact one of the most recent changes actually makes their job even harder potentially.  According to one of the new rules it is a penalty to lead with the helmet whether you are attempting to tackle the ball carrier or as the ball carrier himself.  So gone are the days where a Running Back would put his head down and plow through the line in order to get that much needed first down.  If this rule had been applied years ago.  Some of your favourite Running Backs would have had Ho-Hum careers.  Another reason workhorse backs are becoming a rare commodity is because they just aren’t needed.  Having a solid Running game was necessary before because it was one of the only ways to keep Safeties honest.  Throw the ball too often, and you were likely going to get one of your Wide Receivers killed.  Team owners new that every pass across the middle came with significant risk, so they generally invested in only one top level Wide Receiver, and a couple secondary options.  The money you saved went into a workhorse back.  Why do you think the Pittsburgh Steelers weren’t interested in making a long term deal with Le’Veon Bell?  The main reason is that this has become an increasingly pass friendly league.  As great as Le’Veon Bell is, the future of the Steelers is with Antonio Brown and JuJu Smith-Schuster.

Which brings me back to Brady’s passing numbers.  Given the state of the league, those numbers are obviously inflated as a result.  If the other great Quarterbacks were playing now they’d statistically be throwing 15 to 20% more passes.  Average that across their careers, and the numbers become far more appealing.  Every passing or receiving record that falls now should have an asterisk beside it because of how difficult those records were to set originally.

Fantasy has Won

So why did the league end up this way?  Was it the pressure they felt after concealing the inherent dangers of playing football finally came out?  Was it the increasing popularity of Fantasy Football, and it’s newfound hold on sports betting?  Was it just the fan friendly appeal of higher scoring big play games?  Most likely it was the continuous decrease in market share to the NBA that made them react.  Why do you think endzone celebrations came back.

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Play the Percentages or Trust your Gut – Sports Fanatics Play Fantasy SF-47

Draft Capital

Every Fantasy Sports website, or Fantasy Football analyst prepares for each Season by making a list.  Some like myself make many lists, but they all have the same purpose.  The goal is to arrange each and every fantasy relevant Player from the most valuable to the least.  Then we presume to decipher where the optimum position to draft them is.  Now maybe you choose to rely on our analysis or you don’t.  Most likely you take what the most popular websites decide, and then make slight adjustments due to personal bias.  However you choose to make your draft board.  Each Player you end up selecting has a perceived value attached to the Round you selected them in.  So what happens when you are setting your line up for the week, and the Running Back you selected in the first Round is facing the Top Run Defense in the league?

That Gut Feeling

How often should we trust our Gut when it comes to Fantasy Football?  To arrive at a suitable answer I’ll use both a top level Running Back from last season, and a top level Wide Receiver.

Todd Gurley – Last Season Todd Gurley finished as the Top Player in Fantasy football.  In the PPR league I run he finished the Season with a little over 400 fantasy points.  He averaged a little over 25 fantasy points per game.  Of course that’s what he averaged.  There was that game against the Seattle Seahawks Legion of Boom defense where he only gained 50 yards, lost a fumble, and didn’t score a touchdown.  He finished that game with 6 points.

So obviously you need to pay close attention to what your Gut tells you right?  I’ll get back to that question in a moment.  First lets take a look at the Wide Receiver from last year.

Julio Jones – For the past few Seasons Julio Jones has continually been drafted as a top 3 Wide Receiver.  Last season was a bit of a down year for him but he still averaged a little over 16 points per game.  Of course there was that game against the Minnesota Vikings where he had top cornerback Xavier Rhodes shut him down to the tune of 2 catches for 24 yards and no touchdowns.  4.4 measly Fantasy points for the game.  So once again your Gut might have been right. So obviously you should listen to your gut right!

Actually you shouldn’t

What I left out of my analysis of both Players is when they went on to have huge Fantasy games against top defenses.  Sure on occasion your best Players that cost you early Round picks will have bad games.  The reason you picked them so early is because more often than not they have good games.  Even when they are faced off against top defenses.  It helps to understand floor and ceiling probabilities as well.  A top tier Wide Receiver is always going to get targeted with a few passes, and have a reasonable opportunity to receive a touchdown.  The third Wide Receiver on the depth chart can play an entire game and not even get one ball thrown their way.  I don’t care who is covering each receiver.  The opportunity is still greater with the top tier pick.

There are exceptions

I actually had Julio Jones on my Fantasy team for a portion of last season.  If you are wondering if there were any games that I chose to sit him.  Well the answer would be yes.  Sounds like I’m going against my own advice right.  Well before you label me as a hypocrite.  You need to know a little bit about my roster.  I was fortunate enough to have 3 excellent Wide Receivers on my roster.  In order of their value from first to last they were Antonio Brown, Julio Jones, and Jarvis Landry.  I started Antonio Brown for every game.  My league requires two Wide Receivers to start so sometimes I would sit Julio Jones to start Jarvis Landry I drafted 2 Rounds after him.  The starting lineup also has a flex position so sometimes I started all three.  The point I’m trying to make is if you have another option that’s almost as good as your primary choice in a far more favourable match up?  Then choosing to follow your Gut makes total sense.  Your second option will have a far safer floor, with only a slightly lower ceiling.

Good Luck in Week 1

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The Truth about Fantasy Football Drafts – Sports Fanatics Play Fantasy SF-46

The 50/50 Rule

If you have been playing Fantasy Football for a few years you’ve probably heard of the 50/50 rule.  Basically half the Players you draft won’t be on your roster by season’s end.  This isn’t necessarily a fact but you can bet that your final roster will look different if you plan on remaining competitive.  As an example I won my Fantasy Football league last year with three key Players on my Roster I didn’t draft.  I picked up Alvin Kamara, Jerick McKinnon, and Alex Collins during the Season.  On most teams in a 12 team league that Running Back trio would have been amazing.  Did I mention that I had drafted Leonard Fournette in the first Round last year as well!  Now you should also know that this is in a PPR Keeper League and my Keepers were Antonio Brown and Julio Jones.  How could I lose?  Well I did trade Julio Jones away midseason.  It would be impossible to draft a team that strong.  I just made the right trades and waiver wire picks when the opportunity arose.

This year’s draft has already been completed. You can see the condensed online draft with all of my selections on the Cobe Life YouTube channel.

Already my roster has gone through some significant changes.  I felt pretty good about landing Jerick McKinnon with my only pick in the first two Rounds.  That was until he went down with a torn ACL during San Francisco’s last practice of the preseason!  I took a flyer on Martavis Bryant because Oakland gave up a third Round pick to acquire him.  Well I guess Oakland is in the habit of giving away third Round picks because they cut him on final cut day.  In case you haven’t already figured it out, so did I.  I also drafted Dez Bryant, planning on stashing him on my Bench for up to 4 weeks with the hopes a decent team would sign him.  Unfortunately with the injury to McKinnon and my best Running Back on the bench being Mark Ingram (In case you weren’t aware Ingram begins the season on a four game suspension) I was forced to abandon my plan and drop Dez so I could pick up McKinnon’s potential back up Matt Brieda.  With my initial draft strategy in shambles I also decided to hedge my bets at Quarterback by replacing Martavis Bryant with Alex Smith.

So before the season has even begun I’ve already changed 3 of my players from a total of 15 on the roster.  What are the odds that I end up switching four more players over the course of the season?  Pretty damn good.

Safe floor vs High ceiling

There are many Fantasy Football pundits that will talk about the importance of choosing Players with a High ceiling.  Now there are a number of Players with exceptionally high ceilings that are guaranteed to score you a fair amount of points every week.  The more of those Players on your team the merrier.  But what about the Players with High ceilings and seriously low floors?    It’s great when your Flex Player gets you 15 points, but it isn’t much of a picnic when they get you 1.3 points.  This is where Safe Floor Players come in.  In order to understand what your mix of Players should be in your league you need to understand how many points are required to win on average each week.  In my PPR Keeper League it usually takes about 125 points to have a decent chance to win each week.  Your starting roster requirements are 1 Quarterback, 2 Running Backs, 2 Wide Receivers, 1 Tight End, 1 Flex (RB, WR, TE) 1 Kicker, and 1 Defence.  Breaking it down by position the average amount of points you are looking for are QB-20pts, RB-15pts, WR-15pts, TE-10pts, K-7pts, DEF-8pts.  So a totally average week would net you 120pts. So somebody on your roster needs to exceed their weekly average to help guarantee your victory.  Of course some of your players could under perform as well.  So what is the best way to prepare for the inevitable?  The answer is having two thirds of your starting roster as Safe Floor Players.  I would rather a Running Back or Wide Receiver that gets me 10 to 12 guaranteed points every week as my number 2 or Flex than a Player that gets me over 20 points once every four weeks, and less than 10 points the others.  Just cause they have a high ceiling doesn’t mean they are Fantasy gold.  The rest of your roster should be filled with High Ceiling hopefully Safe Floor Players.  A great example of a Safe Floor Player is the Number two Slot Receiver on any team with a decent offense in a PPR league.  They might not catch many touchdowns but they generally catch around 5 passes minimum every week for over 50 yards.  A good High ceiling Player to target is the deep threat Wide Receiver or Bell cow back on a High scoring team.

Don’t Stream just Target

People preach streaming Defenses, Kickers, and even Quarterbacks.  I won’t knock their choice because I’ve done it myself.  It can work provided you find yourself in the right situation to do it.  First of all you won’t have success streaming a particular position if two or more other Managers are streaming that position as well.  You don’t want to find yourself fighting to claim Ryan Tannehill off of waivers because he happens to be playing the New York Jets.  Secondly you need to temper your expectations.  Just because somebody is playing in a favourable match up doesn’t necessarily mean they will finish with a favourable result.  Especially if they aren’t a Top tier talent.  Thirdly it’s sometimes a lot more work thsn it’s worth.  While you are trying to decide which Defense to stream that week your opponent noticed that Carlos Hyde pulled a Hamstring during practice and quickly snatched Nick Chubb as a free agent.  There’s enough to think about during a Fantasy Football season.  Why give yourself more?

Some positions don’t matter

This is one of the most idiotic beliefs in Fantasy Football.  Don’t worry about which Kicker you draft because you can always pick one up in Free Agency.  That’s total horse shit!  Wait until you lose because your kicker on that high scoring offense finds himself in a heavy snowfall in November and finishes with 1 point, while your opponent was laughing his way into the winners column with New Orleans Kicker playing at home inside the Superdome.   Just wait on a Defense because they are too unpredictable from year to year.  Another totally daft statement.  You want to talk unpredictable?  Lets talk about starting Running Backs!  I won my league last year because a number of Top Running Backs got injured.  The Dalvin Cook injury made Jerick McKinnon a marquee starter. Mark Ingram wasn’t at 100% so Alvin Kamara progressed faster than anticipated.  The Top Team in my league on paper lost their considerable advantage when David Johnson injured his wrist in the first game of the season.  You would think that might be enough to scrap the entire season for that team.  Well she still made the Playoffs and won her division.  You know how she did it?  She did it by dominating on Defense.  That’s right!  Not only did she spend a mid Round pick on the Jacksonville Jaguars.  She also picked up the Minnesota Vikings when another Manager dropped them because he was streaming Defenses.  For the rest of tbe season she switched back and forth between the two Defenses depending on which one had the better match up and averaged WR2 numbers!  When did you draft your WR2?  I doubt if it was in the 10th Round!  While everyone else in the league was getting 6 to 10 points per week from their Defense, she was getting 11 to 15.  She drafted Carlos Hyde as her third Running Back because he was undoubtedly the number 1 in San Francisco (safe floor) and he was a serviceable replacement for David Johnson.  So what did that all add up to?  Fantasy Football victories!

Don’t listen to the “Experts”, just use common sense and you’ll do fine.

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Questions that need answering – Sports Fanatics Play Fantasy SF-45

Changes are afoot

There were a number of surprises in Fantasy Football last year.  Rookie Running Backs were flying off the waiver wire every week.  The Quarterbacks that went late in the draft became some of tthe Top performers.  Injuries to key Players happened early and often.  Fantasy Football was simply fantastic last Season.  So what should we expect this Season?

Plenty of Comeback Candidates

There are a few Players that missed a lot of time or even the whole Season last year that are primed to have huge Seasons this year.

Deshaun Watson – If you follow Cobe Life on YouTube, you will already know that Deshaun Watson is the highest QB on my draft board.  That’s right, I’m predicting him to be the Top QB in Fantasy Football.  He was already on his way to achieving that last year before he went down to injury.  I expect him to come back fully healthy and well rested.  Draft him with confidence.

David Johnson – David Johnson missed all but one game last Season with a wrist injury.  Before that he was considered to be the number 2 Running Back in the league by my rankings.  Wrist injuries generally heal well, and have very little effect on future performance.  David Johnson is the Arizona Cardinals offense.  I don’t expect a drop in touches.  Actually after being off the field for practically a full Season, he should be raring to go.  He’s my number 3 Running Back on my draft board.

Dalvin Cook – The Minnesota Vikings are a powerhouse team in a powerhouse division that’s in the powerhouse conference.  Dalvin Cook has already proved that he fits their powerhouse offense quite nicely.  Coming back from injury to a team that actually upgraded at Quarterback in the off-season.  Dalvin Cook is sure to find a lot of running room this year.  Snag him in your draft when the opportunity arises.

Julian Edelman – If you take a really good look at the New England Patriots roster you’ll notice something somewhat strange.  You won’t find many star players on it.    That’s what makes the return of Julian Edelman so huge.  On the offensive side of the ball there are three obvious stars.  Two of which (Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski) will be extremely difficult to draft unless you don’t mind reaching.  That leaves the returning Edelman as the only star on the Patriots that could fall below his true draft value.  I’m not even close to being a fan of the Patriots, but if Edelman falls in my draft.  I’m taking him.

Rookie Breakouts

Saquon Barkley – Saquon Barkley is for real.  I don’t take what I see in the preseason too seriously.  What I have seen from him will definitely carry over into the regular Season.  He’s elusive, has a great burst of speed through the hole, runs hard, runs fast, and has sure hands.  Barring a complete New York Giants breakdown, Saquon Barkley should finish as a Top 5 Running Back.  In most drafts he’s the 8th Running Back off the board.  Go ahead and reach.

Royce Freeman – Nobody really knows what to expect from Denver.  With Case Keenum ar Quarterback and the stacked Defense they already have, they could look a lot like last year’s Minnesota Vikings.  If that’s the case Royce Freeman could be in line for a lot of fantastic opportunities.  He has the potential to be one of those Rookie Running Backs that helps you reach the Fantasy playoffs.  There is some risk here, but if the Broncos can get a few leads in games Freeman will have an amazing season.

Calvin Ridley – First off I should mention that I generally don’t draft rookie Wide Receivers. It takes a while to learn a new offense, than get in sync with the team’s quarterback.  The calibre of cornerback they face from week to week is significantly higher.  It just takes awhile for Wide Receivers to adjust.  There is the odd exception though.  In this case it’s in the form of a pedestrian number 2 Wide Receiver, and a number 1 Wide Receiver that demands double coverage.  Calvin Ridley could serve as a decent bye week replacement or flex starter during the season.  If either Sanu or Jones gets hurt then he becomes highly valued.  I might draft him as insurance or trade bait when the time is right.

Wild Cards

There are a few key changes at the most important position that could flip this fantasy Season on it’s head.

Patrick Mahomes II – What will the Kansas City Chiefs offense look like in 2018?  I’ll tell you what it won’t be, boring.  Watching Mahomes play is like watching high school football.  He seems to hold on to the ball too long for the NFL but somehow gets away with it.  I’ve watched him ignore the easy dump off to his Running Back to attempt a deep throw downfield and let his Wide Receiver attempt to make a play.  Alex Smith he is not!  Now is that a good thing for the Fantasy Players you drafted on the Kansas City Chiefs?  I really don’t know.  I’ll tell you one thing.  I don’t expect Kansas City to win as many games as they did last year.  I wouldn’t be surprised if they didn’t make the playoffs.

Kirk Cousins – I expect Cousins to eclipse 4000 yards passing and throw for at least 30 touchdowns.  In other words he will be a Top 5 Quarterback this year.  His receiving corps is significantly better than who he had in Washington.  He got a huge contract and will be expected to earn it.  Look at the season Case Keenum had behind that offensive line.  Just imagine what Cousins will do.  As a result of his signing I’ll draft Vikings offensive players every chance I get.

The Countdown is on.

The first week of the season is drawing near.  I hope you’ve done your research because it’s sure to be another wild and crazy Fantasy Football year.

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The New look of Fantasy Football – Sports Fanatics Play Fantasy SF-44

How times have changed

If you have been playing Fantasy Football for the last decade then you have probably noticed a few changes.  Some of these changes can have a dramatic effect on how your Fantasy Football team performs from week to week.   Despite these changes, many Fantasy Football analysts refuse to adjust their strategies.  Well I can admit that I was resistant to change as well, and held steadfast for a couple of Seasons.  It took missing the Playoffs in my Keeper League for the first time in years to make me adjust my strategy.  The end result speaks for itself, I’m league Champion!  So what changes am I referring to?  In this article I’ll cover the three most important changes that you should be aware of.

Concussion Protocol

If you aren’t aware of how the NFL Concussion Protocol can effect the overall performance of your Fantasy Football team?   You need to pay close attention to this portion of the article.  For many years both the NFL and Players have misrepresented how often Players get concussed.  What was once considered a mild concussion that would have a Player miss a snap or two, can now cause them to miss the rest of a game.  I’ve already had this occur to key Players on my Fantasy teams in the first quarter of games.  Imagine what your chances of victory would be if your top Running Back was knocked out in the first quarter.  I remember when Players were considered tough if they got knocked out in the first half, and returned to play in the second half.  Nowadays those same Players would be considered foolhardy.  In reality those Players can no longer exist because the NFL Concussion Protocol has already removed them from the game, and quite likely the next game as well.  Something you should be aware of is that the more concussions a Player has had, the more likely that they will be susceptible to another.  Treat the brain like any other part of the human body that can sustain injury.  Some Fantasy Football Managers refuse to draft anyone that’s had an ACL injury.  I’m not one those but I do take injuries into consideration.  If two equally skilled Players are available to draft, and one of them has a history of injuries or concussions then I’ll draft the other Player.  The reality is that injuries are a part of the game.  Most injuries are manageable.  Players will play through minor injuries, and modern medicine has made recovery from major injuries relatively quick.  Concussion Protocol on the other hand is now governed by it’s own set of rules.  It’s because of this that you should be well aware.

Rookie Impact

Rookies have always had a place in Fantasy Football.  The temptation to draft a Rookie was always there, but more often than not didn’t pan out.  Every year the NFL media hype machine would latch on to a couple Rookies and have you believing that they were the second coming.  Very rarely did any of these Players reach their potential in their first Season.  Well like I said in the beginning, times have changed.   Rookies have become far more NFL ready over the last few years.  Especially positions that require more individual skill then scheme recognition.  Fantasy Football Managers shouldn’t be afraid to draft highly skilled Running Backs, or Quarterbacks.  Don’t make the mistake of underestimating the effect a top level rookie linebacker will immediately have on a Defense.  The coaching and Player development at the College level is at an all time high.  The only position that I remain wary of is Wide Receiver.  There are some complex timing routes in the NFL that can take more than a season to master.

Who’s Number 1?

I remember the days when NFL teams had a definitive number 1 Running Back, Wide Receiver, and Tight End.  Draft position was proportional to a Player’s ranking on their team’s depth chart.  Some Managers still approach their draft preparation with that archaic system in mind.  If that was you last Season then you probably missed out on Players like Adam Thielen, or Davante Adams.  If I asked 10 Fantasy Football Managers who they felt would finish with more fantasy points this Season between Diggs and Thielen, Thomas and Sanders, Ingram and Kamara, or Nelson and Cooper.  I bet no two Managers would give the same answers.  What this means to you is that Players that are second on their team’s depth chart could easily out perform top tier Players on other teams.  It’s also worth noting that having two Wide Receivers or Running Backs from the same team on your roster can make total sense.

 

Get with the times

There are a number of other things that have changed but I haven’t drafted yet so you will have to wait to find out.  If you take the three factors I’ve mentioned in this article into consideration this season you should be fine.  Good luck this Season, unless you are in a league against me of course. 😉