Offensive Explosion
A decade of subtle changes have lead to this. Touchbacks being brought out to the 25 yard line. Adding rule after rule to effectively build an iron cage around quarterbacks. Eliminating those bang-bang plays that saw safeties knock wide receivers right out of the game. Every year the game gets a little easier for offences, and a little more difficult for defenses. It was only a matter of time before we began to see teams make the adjustment to teams that are totally dedicated to offense.
Offense wins games, but Defense wins Championships
This was the old adage that defined NFL football. Does it still hold true? I’d have to say that I seriously doubt it. We may have seen that last Defensive juggernaut to win a Superbowl with the Denver Broncos. I expect the majority of Superbowls going forward to be offensive shootouts, or total blowouts. My prediction goes way beyond the recent rule changes. You have to also factor in the number of new super stadiums that have been built, or are in development. Chances are you won’t see any more Superbowls in adverse weather conditions. Which brings up another question. What about all the NFL performance records?
Should new records count?
I don’t know how many times I’ve had this argument. When people ask me who the greatest Quarterback of all time was I don’t choose Tom Brady. They get this stunned look on their faces, and ask me why not. There are three distinct reasons why I don’t believe that Tom Brady is the G.O.A.T. Reason number 1: he doesn’t have the physical skills of some of the other greats. This is the most minor of my three reasons but it does factor in. Reason number 2: he has had the pleasure to play in not only the weakest conference, but the weakest division in that conference for a decade. Now you might argue that this is by no means any fault of his. Still having the luxury of knowing you will win your division every year with ease, and essentially beginning every season with 6 automatic wins helps inflate your numbers. How many more Superbowls would some of the other great quarterbacks have if their division was a total joke? Reason number 3: he has played in an era that has done everything save making quarterbacks completely untouchable. This is the biggest reason of all in my opinion. How many more years could Steve Young, Joe Montana, or John Elway have played if the league had decided to protect them as well? In the new NFL Tom Brady is so well protected that he could play until he’s 50 if he so pleases. Of course people will point to the rings, and his impressive numbers. Well I’ve already covered the rings by explaining how easy his division has been, but what about the passing numbers?
The end of the workhorse Running Back
With all of the recent changes that have been made to protect Quarterbacks and Wide Receivers. There hasn’t been any real changes to protect Running Backs. In fact one of the most recent changes actually makes their job even harder potentially. According to one of the new rules it is a penalty to lead with the helmet whether you are attempting to tackle the ball carrier or as the ball carrier himself. So gone are the days where a Running Back would put his head down and plow through the line in order to get that much needed first down. If this rule had been applied years ago. Some of your favourite Running Backs would have had Ho-Hum careers. Another reason workhorse backs are becoming a rare commodity is because they just aren’t needed. Having a solid Running game was necessary before because it was one of the only ways to keep Safeties honest. Throw the ball too often, and you were likely going to get one of your Wide Receivers killed. Team owners new that every pass across the middle came with significant risk, so they generally invested in only one top level Wide Receiver, and a couple secondary options. The money you saved went into a workhorse back. Why do you think the Pittsburgh Steelers weren’t interested in making a long term deal with Le’Veon Bell? The main reason is that this has become an increasingly pass friendly league. As great as Le’Veon Bell is, the future of the Steelers is with Antonio Brown and JuJu Smith-Schuster.
Which brings me back to Brady’s passing numbers. Given the state of the league, those numbers are obviously inflated as a result. If the other great Quarterbacks were playing now they’d statistically be throwing 15 to 20% more passes. Average that across their careers, and the numbers become far more appealing. Every passing or receiving record that falls now should have an asterisk beside it because of how difficult those records were to set originally.
Fantasy has Won
So why did the league end up this way? Was it the pressure they felt after concealing the inherent dangers of playing football finally came out? Was it the increasing popularity of Fantasy Football, and it’s newfound hold on sports betting? Was it just the fan friendly appeal of higher scoring big play games? Most likely it was the continuous decrease in market share to the NBA that made them react. Why do you think endzone celebrations came back.
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