Tag: Statistics

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FANTASY Uncategorized

Sports Fanatics play Fantasy SF-13 QB Draft

Drafting a Quarterback

Choosing when to draft a Quarterback is one of the most important decisions you will make.  The top Running Backs will be off the board within the first two rounds.  After they’re all gone second, and third tier Running Backs are plentiful.  Other than a handful of marquee Wide Receivers.  There are plenty of useful options at Wide Receiver that can be had all the way through your draft.  The Tight End position even simpler.  Outside of taking Gronkowski early.  The difference in quality between the majority of Tight Ends is insignificant.

Things are far different when comparing Quarterbacks.  The difference in fantasy production from tier to tier is far greater.  A top tier Quarterback can earn you an extra five to ten fantasy points over your opponent if they have a third tier Quarterback.  In a twelve team league at least a third of the teams will have a third tier Quarterback.  This is a disadvantage that you shouldn’t take lightly.

When preparing for your draft it’s important to pay attention to which teams are in your division.  Many leagues including mine automatically get you into the playoffs if you win your division.  My leagues are twelve teams with three divisions.  You play each team in your division twice.  Obviously how my team performs against my division rivals is extremely important.  So how do I make sure my team keeps pace?  I pay close attention to who my division rivals are picking during the draft.  This is especially true when deciding when to draft my Quarterback.  Lets say my plan going into the draft is to pick a Quarterback with big play potential like Eli Manning, or Carson Palmer.  Third tier Quarterbacks with an eighth Round value in my opinion.  This allows me to top load my team with Running Backs and Wide Receivers.  What happens if somebody in my division drafts Aaron Rodgers with their first pick?  Suddenly any Quarterback I pick is at a serious disadvantage against this division rival.  Of course I had previously decided not to waste an early Round pick on the best Quarterback in Fantasy.  I knew somebody was going to take him.  Unfortunately he landed in my division.  Still  I’m not too worried because I got A.J. Green with the 10th pick, and he will be better than any Wide Receiver that Manager drafts.  Fast forward to the third Round, and another Manager in my division picks Tom Brady.  It’s at this point that my original plan suddenly appears sorely insufficient.

Considering that I will have to play each Manager in my division twice.  I’m now faced with a twelve game regular season that includes a third of the season against two of the best Quarterbacks in Fantasy.  Selecting either one of my targeted Quarterbacks would leave me at a major positional disadvantage.  At this point I was forced to adjust my draft Strategy, and target a second tier Quarterback.  I quickly checked the board to see who was available.  I placed all of the second tier Quarterbacks in my queue.  Then I continued to follow my draft Strategy until only two was left.  When my next pick came around there was only one left so I snatched him up.

On a draft Application like nfl.com it’s always a good idea to fill your queue with potential picks.  This is especially true if you aren’t emotionally attached to any specific Player.  For me that means Quarterbacks, and Tight Ends tend to clog up my queue.  I won’t reach for a top tier Quarterback, or Gronkowski.  So who I get at either position just needs to be a competitive Fantasy Player.

To help you decide which Quarterbacks to target going into your draft.  I’ll quickly go over three categories of Quarterbacks I’ve identified.

Top tier Quarterbacks

Aaron Rodgers: honestly Aaron Rodgers could be in a category all by himself.  The most dominant Quarterback in Fantasy Football.  His situation in Green Bay is a Fantasy Manager’s wet dream.  He’s so important to the offence, and so successful.  Green Bay seems disinterested in finding a quality Running Back for him to hand off to.  He’s really the only Quarterback that could be drafted in the first Round.  If you want him on your team you had better be ready to pay up.

Drew Brees: a threat to break 5000 yards passing every single Season.  That about says it right there.  You are practically guaranteed at least 30 touchdowns.  It’s also a benefit to whoever drafts him that the New Orleans Saints Defence couldn’t stop the Toronto Argos from scoring.  Brees finds himself playing from behind all too often.  Getting the ball down field fast, and in to the end zone is a necessity.

Tom Brady: as long as he is healthy,  Tom Brady will continue to put up huge numbers.  As an added bonus the Patriots like to run up the score against weak opponents.  With teams like the Bills, and the Jets in their division.  You are practically guaranteed to get some huge Fantasy weeks out of Brady.

Andrew Luck: Andrew Luck can be considered a borderline top tier/second tier Quarterback.  There’s the concern surrounding his recent shoulder surgery.  There’s also the concern surrounding his offensive line.  If he comes back healthy?   There’s no guarantee that he will remain healthy for long.  If the Offensive line can prevent Luck from looking like he just went 10 rounds with Mike Tyson every game?  Then Andrew Luck could become the Top Quarterback in Fantasy Football.  He’s that good.

Second tier Quarterbacks

Marcus Mariota: he has had a lot of success in Fantasy Football already.  Considering that he hasn’t had top level receiving targets.  His Fantasy numbers are really based on his talent alone.  The Titans rewarded him with three new offensive targets in the Draft.  If even one of them pan out.  Expect Mariota to have a great Season.

Kirk Cousins: another great Season, and what does he get?  One more year under the franchise tag.  He could have accepted a contract that would have made him the second highest paid Quarterback.  Instead he chose to gamble on himself.  If he puts together another great Season.  He stands to become the highest paid Player in the league.  He could also end up at the helm of a true contender.  All of this is music to a Fantasy Manager’s ears.  He lost Pierre Garcon, and DeSean Jackson in the off season.  Honestly though with what is at stake for Cousins.  I’m not worried.

Jameis Winston: not only does he keep improving every year.  The Bucs did him a huge favour by signing DeSean Jackson in the off season.  Read my full Jameis Winston analysis on the Starting from Scratch post SF-7.

Derek Carr: a young talented Quarterback, on one of the most star packed teams.  Sounds like a great situation for success right.  What many people overlook is how a great Defence adds value to their Quarterback.  The more three and outs they get.  The more opportunities their Quarterback will have to earn you points.  Derek Carr will have a great Season.

The last category consists of a group of Quarterbacks that could surprise many people in Fantasy Football.  Matt Ryan’s ridiculous Season last year was an example.

Top 5 potential breakout Quarterbacks

Cam Newton: new offensive Weapons, only one Season removed from an MVP.

Eli Manning: addition of Brandon Marshall makes the Giants Wide Receiver tandem brutally difficult to defend.

Tyrod Taylor: always a threat on his feet, a healthy Sammy Watkins greatly increases his ceiling, needs to prove to the Bills that he’s their future.

Ben Roethlisberger: deep threat Martavis Bryant is back, will have Le’Veon Bell for a full Season.

Andy Dalton: the addition of Joe Mixon and John Ross, a healthy Tyler Eifert, needs to rebound from a statistically poor Season.

Hopefully this will help you put a plan in place to draft the best possible Quarterback.  Even if the unexpected happens in your draft.

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GOLF

Track your statistics – Beginner’s guide to Golf

Here is a bit of advice I wish someone had given me when I first started testing my ability on actual Golf courses.

KEEP TRACK OF YOUR SCORE AND STATISTICS!

The key statistics being the total number of Fairways hit per round, and your success percentage.  The total number of Greens in Regulation per round, and your success percentage.  The total number of Putts taken per round, and the average number of Putts per hole.  Figuring these statistics out is easy.  You’d be amazed how few Golfers actually bother to do it though.

In case you aren’t familiar with these terms I’ll go over them with you.  A Fairway hit is any tee shot on a Par 4 or Par 5 that ends up in the Fairway. So if you play a course with eight Par 3s, eight Par 4s, and two Par 5s.  Then you could have a maximum of 10 Fairways hit.  If you only hit 5 of them, your success percentage would be 50%.  A Green in Regulation is any shot that lands on the Green, and leaves you at least two Putts for Par.  So your tee shot would have to land on the Green to count as a Green in Regulation on a Par 3.  Your first, or second shot would have to land on the Green to count as a Green in Regulation on a Par 4.  Your first, second, or third shot would have to land on the Green to count as a Green in Regulation on a Par 5.  Every hole provides a potential Green in Regulation, so if you got 6 Greens in Regulation on an eighteen hole Golf course.  Your success percentage would be 33.3%.  In order to figure out your putting proficiency.  Just count the total number of Putts you made in the round.  Then divide that by the number of holes you played.  That will give you your Putts per hole average.

Knowing these statistics will enable you to set reasonable goals.  Beginning with something attainable like 3 Fairways hit, 3 Greens in Regulation, and 45 total Putts will help build confidence.  These goals aren’t as simple as you might think.  Depending on the course it could be extremely difficult to hit the Fairway, or have your approach shots hold the Green.  Greens with a lot of break can turn into four Putts.  Setting goals will help you develop one of the most underrated aspects of Golf.  The mental Game.  Before I began keeping track of my Statistics.  My Club selection on the Tee became a simple process of which club can I hit furthest towards the hole without going past it?  More often than not I was pulling my Driver out of the bag for every Par 4, and Par 5.  There’s a reason why PGA tour Pros don’t do that.  It isn’t because they hit it so much further than we do.  It’s because they take into account the locations of hazards.   I’m not just talking about Bunkers, and Water.  A narrow Fairway is a hazard.  A poor angle to the Green is a hazard.  Before I began tracking Fairways hit.  Missing the Fairway was less important to me than getting as close to the Green as possible.  Which more often than not meant landing in the rough.  Being 50 yards away from the Pin in deep rough seemed better than being 100 yards away from the Pin on the Fairway.  I was completely wrong.  You know what to expect from a good lie.  You’ve hit so many shots from a perfect lie at the Range.  You can practically predict what will happen when you strike that ball.  I know that I hit my Pitching Wedge around 100 yards from a nice lie.  I couldn’t give you an educated guess how far I hit it, or any club for that matter out of the deep rough.  So being half the distance to the PIN but in the rough leaves me with a total gamble of an approach shot.  I don’t know how far it’s going to go. If it’s going to come out straight, or if it’s going to come out at all.  The amount of stress that single shot can put you through isn’t worth the extra 50 yards.  This takes me to the next statistic you should be tracking.  Your Greens in Regulation.  Taking aim at the Green from the Fairway provides you with a reasonable chance for success.  Trying to get there from the rough, a bunker, or through some trees is a snowballs chance in hell unlikely.   Consequently this will adversely effect your putting.  For example you are playing a Par 4.  You reach the Green in 4 after a series of poor shot selections.  How desperately do you want to sink that first putt?  Get away with a Bogey on what was a brutally frustrating hole.  You’d want to sink that first putt really bad.  Try to imagine how rattled you would already be just having reached the Green in 4.  Then add the additional stress to one putt.  In this situation it wouldn’t surprise me if you finished that hole with a triple bogey.  The mental focus and skill required to make that putt can be too much for a beginner to handle.  Now what happens if you played that same hole cautiously, and chipped up on to the Green in 3?  You still didn’t get yourself the Green in Regulation, but you reached the Green stress free.  Your first putt is relatively stress free.  If you make it you save Par, and a miss will probably leave you a tap in Bogey.  As a Beginner a Par is awesome, and I’ll gladly take tap in Bogeys all day.  In this situation I would consider a double Bogey highly unlikely, and your chances for Par pretty good.  That’s what happens when you concentrate on reaching the Fairway safely off the Tee.   It then provides you with a decent chance of reaching the Green in Regulation.  Which in turn gives you an opportunity to two putt for Par, or Bogey.

As a Beginner I play a lot of shorter courses.  I might only pull out the Driver once, or twice in a round.  In some cases not at all.  The result is that my scores have greatly improved.

Green in Regulation

There is a hole on one of the courses I play often where I used to pull Driver every time.  I averaged a double Bogey on that hole teeing off with the Driver.  Now on that same hole I tee off with a 6 hybrid instead.  I give up around 75 yards on average off the Tee.  I now average just a little over Par.  I play it almost a full two strokes better.  Simply because I rarely miss the Fairway, and reach the Green in Regulation half the time.  If that doesn’t make you a believer in hitting the Fairway, and reaching the Green in Regulation.  Then I don’t know what else will.

Beginner’s guide to Golf