Tag: NFL

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All Mocked out – Sports Fanatics play Fantasy SF-41

I’ve had enough already!

One week left to the NFL draft and I’ve probably seen 30 mock drafts by now.  It’s actually more than 30 but eventually you just stop counting.  It’s bad enough that every online NFL News website has at least 3 mock drafts posted by now.  When you factor in that the NFL Network has a show that’s been running all month that’s dedicated to analyzing each and every analyst’s personal mock.  The subtle differences become lost, and essentially meaningless when you’ve heard so many reasons why Cleveland should take Josh Allen, or maybe Sam Darnold.  Maybe  Saquon Barkley is the right choice, or Josh Rosen looked really good at his pro day.  Definitely one of those guys should be the first player taken in the draft.  Unless you are in agreement with the analysts that believe Baker Mayfield is the sure thing.

Hopefully I wasn’t being too subtle

Who knows how many more mock drafts I will have the unfortunate opportunity to experience before the actual draft puts an end to it.  If you actually believe that any one of the mocks you’ve had the displeasure of seeing is right?  Well then I have a mint condition numbers matching frame off restoration 1952 Chevrolet Corvette for sale that you might be interested in.

Really!  No not really.

In case you aren’t an afficionado of classic American automobiles.  It might interest you to know that the first Chevrolet Corvette was unveiled in 1953.  There’s no such thing as a 1952 Chevrolet Corvette.  Just as there’s no such thing as a correct mock draft.  That’s why they are called MOCK drafts!

MOCK adjective : not authentic or real, but without the intention to deceive.

In layman’s terms it means some totally made up crap.  It’s purpose isn’t really to educate.  The primary purpose of a mock draft is to entertain.   If that truly is the case then I just have to say.  The majority of analysts are doing a pretty poor job.

Don’t focus on the Player.  Focus on the situation.

When you are making predictions that you admit aren’t authentic or real.   It wouldn’t hurt you to make predictions like Baker Mayfield third overall to the New York Jets.  Then extrapolate that his youthful exuberance, and competitive spirit will win him the starting job.  Teddy Bridgewater will be cut, but signed almost immediately when Sam Bradford gets injured in the preseason.  Bridgewater goes from being the third string Quarterback in New York to leading the Arizona Cardinals back to the playoffs.  Now that’s a mock draft pick that I would be interested in hearing about.  Unfortunately that’s not going to happen because the NFL analysts are afraid of making mock predictions that are too far from being possible.  The irony is that none of their mock drafts really are.

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Free Agent Fantasy Fallout – Sports Fanatics play Fantasy SF-40

My how things have changed

Quite a few Players have found themselves in new surroundings.  Some will become Fantasy Football relevant, while others… Well I’ll let you decide.

(Cobe Life has recently switched to a new Subscription service.  I strongly advise current Subscribers to resubmit their follow request)

Arizona Cardinals –  

Sam Bradford:  I see the addition of Sam Bradford as a good one.  Still this is first and foremost David Johnson’s team.  I wouldn’t draft Sam Bradford.

Baltimore Ravens – 

Michael Crabtree: he should establish himself as the true #1 Wide Receiver.  I would definitely draft him.

John Brown: should see an increase in targets, but still remain the third option in Baltimore. I wouldn’t draft him.

Buffalo Bills –

A.J. McCarron: totally unproven as a starter.  Minimal weapons available to him in Buffalo.  I wouldn’t draft him. Worth keeping an eye on if Buffalo picks up some targets in the draft.

Chris Ivory: just acquired to be McCoy’s backup.  Do not draft him.

Carolina Panthers – 

Torrey Smith: should be a more featured part of the offense in Carolina.  If Cam connects with him in the offseason I’d draft him.

Chicago Bears – 

Allen Robinson: could have a breakout Season as the new #1 Receiver in Chicago.  Underutilized in 2017 could have him fall in drafts.  I’d draft him if he falls to me after the 50th pick.

Taylor Gabriel: speedster that can keep defences honest.  Potential big play ability, but I see him as more of a decoy. I won’t be drafting him.

Trey Burton: sure to become Mitchell Trubisky’s safety net.  Potentially great in PPR formats.  I will take a late Round flyer on him.

Cleveland Browns – 

Tyrod Taylor: Cleveland is where many Quarterbacks have gone to die.  Not Tyrod Taylor though.  I think Tyrod can have his best Fantasy Season yet.  He could become a sneaky good Top 10 QB this Season.  I’m drafting him as a capable backup QB with upside.

Carlos Hyde: veteran leadership with 3 down ability.  Duke Johnson is still there so he won’t be asked to carry the load by himself.  Still Hyde will get plenty of opportunity to shine in Cleveland.  I expect him to have a decent Season but see him as a mid Round pick.

Jarvis Landry: if you play in a PPR league then you know what Landry is capable of.  His targets could actually increase in Cleveland. Draft him in PPR before someone else does.

Denver Broncos –

Case Keenum: the Broncos could have picked up any of the available QBs in free agency and upgraded at the position.  Case Keenum goes from one great situation to another one.  To me though Denver is still a Defence first team.  Keenum won’t be asked to put up huge numbers.  I won’t be drafting him.

Detroit Lions –

LeGarrette Blount: the move to Detroit isn’t an advantageous one.  The Running game hasn’t been anything to brag about since Barry Sanders retired.  Blount should end up being their short yardage back, and that’s about it.  I won’t draft him.

Green Bay – 

Jimmy Graham: I love Jimmy Graham’s ability.  I don’t like the move to Green Bay though.  Most QBs look for their Tight Ends or Running Backs when they are forced to scramble.  Aaron Rodgers actually prefers to look downfield for his Wide Receivers.  Jimmy Graham will still be a Top Tight End, but I wouldn’t draft him before Gronkowski, Kelce, Ertz, or Kyle Rudolph.

Jacksonville Jaguars –

Donte Moncrief: if Moncrief can adjust to the Jacksonville system quickly enough.  He should see an increased workload, and produce solid numbers.  Still there are many Wide Receivers in better situations.  I won’t be drafting him.

Austin Seferian-Jenkins: Seferian-Jenkins could be the surprise pick of your draft next Season.  Exactly the kind of target Blake Bortles needs to get back to the playoffs.  While other fantasy Managers burn early Round picks on Gronkowski, Ertz, and Graham.  You can wait and grab Seferian-Jenkins a couple Rounds later.  You can thank me after.

Kansas City Chiefs –

Sammy Watkins: everyone expects Watkins to be a Top tier talent year after year.  While the move to Kansas City has improved his situation.  He still shouldn’t be seen as a WR1.  I do see him as a solid WR2, and I’ll draft him as such.

Miami Dolphins – 

Danny Amendola: don’t expect him to repeat the Season he had last year.  Honestly I don’t expect him to play a full Season.  Somebody will draft him but it won’t be me.

Albert Wilson: looks like the Dolphins intend to copy their division rivals, and create a quick strike offence.  I just don’t see it happening right away.  As such I won’t be drafting any of them.

Minnesota Vikings – 

Kirk Cousins: the big offseason acquisition goes to Minnesota.  By all accounts his situation has improved with the move.  Cousins will have a better group of Wide Receivers to throw to.  An improvement at Running Back.  Plus the Vikings Defence should have him playing with a lead quite often.  I would be surprised if he didn’t finish the Season as a Top 5 QB.  I’ll definitely draft him.

New York Giants – 

Jonathon Stewart: Stewart is still a decent short yardage Running Back.  I see him as more of a complimentary Back to whomever the Giants draft this year.  I wouldn’t waste a draft pick on him.

New York Jets –

Teddy Bridgewater: Teddy will battle Josh for the starting job.  Until we know who will start I wouldn’t advise drafting either.

Isaiah Crowell: it seems like every year the Jets bring in another RB to replace Bilal Powell.  I wouldn’t be surprised if they end up in a timeshare.  I wouldn’t draft either of them.

Oakland Raiders – 

Doug Martin: with the addition of Doug Martin the Raiders could wear down defences by splitting carries with Beast mode.  I expect that will be the case.  Both backs should have Fantasy value as RB2s.  That’s where I will draft them.

Jordy Nelson: would you trade Aaron Rodgers for Derek Carr?  I wouldn’t.  If Jordy had a choice he probably wouldn’t either.  Nelson is no longer a WR1 in my books. I’d still draft him as a low end WR2 with upside though.

San Francisco 49ers –

Jerick McKinnon: for the first time in his career McKinnon should begin the Season as his team’s #1 Running Back.  He deserves the position, and touches that go along with it.  San Francisco is on the rise, and so is McKinnon.  I see him as a low end RB1. I would definitely draft him.

Seattle Seahawks –

Jaron Brown: overlooked in Arizona, Jaron Brown will have the opportunity to shine in Seattle.  A great route runner with impressive physical ability.  Brown should be a great replacement for Richardson.  I expect decent WR2 numbers.

Ed Dickson: I don’t see Dickson as a replacement for the departure of Jimmy Graham.  I believe that Seattle will use him as more of a blocking Tight End.  I wouldn’t even remotely consider drafting him.

Tennessee Titans – 

Dion Lewis: it’s hard not to expect an increase in touches as a Running Back leaving New England.  Lewis has the kind of game that makes PPR managers smile.  I know I am.  He has high end RB2, maybe even borderline RB1 potential. I will definitely draft him.

Washington Redskins –

Alex Smith: Alex won’t have the all star cast he got used to in Kansas City.  Still Alex is a veteran that knows how to win.  He will probably put up decent QB numbers in Washington.  Definitely worth drafting as a backup.

Paul Richardson: Paul had a handful of highlight reel plays in Seattle.  The move to Washington could provide him with the opportunity to become their #1 Wide Receiver.  If he wins the job it would be a mistake not to draft him.  Keep a close eye on him during the offseason.

can’t say I didn’t tell you

If your favourite team isn’t in my Recap.  It’s because they haven’t made a significant Fantasy relevant acquisition yet this offseason.  Now for those of you that like to draft a Defence before the last 3 Rounds of a draft.  Don’t be afraid to spend that mid Round pick on the L. A. Rams, or Jacksonville Jaguars.  Good luck in 2018.

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Quarterback Carousel – Sports Fanatics play Fantasy SF-38

Should I stay or Should I go?

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There are a lot of Free Agent QBs available this off season, and a couple interesting backups that could find themselves as trade bait during the draft.  Last Season was one of the greatest years in NFL history for backup Quarterbacks.  They performed so well that there are teams like the Minnesota Vikings that don’t rightly know who their starter actually is.  Then you have situations where you can argue that a team has two starting Quarterbacks.  The Superbowl Champion Philadelphia Eagles come to mind.  Even though Superbowl MVP Nick Foles has a year left on his contract.  Can you really keep him as a backup who will ride the bench all Season, and significantly reduce his value?  Then you have teams with starting Quarterbacks that just don’t seem to want them.  The Buffalo Bills benched Tyrod Taylor, and all he did was get them to the playoffs for the first time in 17 years.  The New York Giants benched Eli Manning ending his consecutive games started run.  I guess two Superbowl rings only buys you a little patience.  What i find especially amusing are the number of teams that will probably let their current starter leave in Free Agency, and potentially just sign another.

Top Targets

Drew Brees – Drew Brees has been the face of the New Orleans Saints franchise for what feels like forever now.  His current contract has come to an end.  The New Orleans Saints can’t simply franchise tag him because a clause in his last contract prevents it.  So if the Saints want to keep him they’ll probably have to offer him a great two or three year deal.  Even if another team offers him a huge money deal.  I don’t expect Brees to take it.  He has already said that he wants to end his career as a Saint.  I’m sure that’s what he’ll do.

Prediction : Signs with Saints

Kirk Cousins – the Kirk Cousins Washington Redskins fiasco is finally over.  The Redskins have already signed Alex Smith.  So Kirk Cousins will have begun packing his bags.  Over the last few Seasons his numbers have been excellent.  Although there are some who believe that performance without results is misleading.  I prefer to look at what he was able to achieve with so little.  Most people would be hard pressed to tell you who his number 1 Wide Receiver was last Season.  Anyone know who the number 1 Tight End is in Washington?  Whoever it is, they’re probably injured.  Kirk Cousins made the most out of what was available to him.  At times it felt like the Washington Redskins were doing everything in their power to make him fail so they might sign him at a discount.  Well Kirk Cousins didn’t fail, and there will be a huge amount of interest from a few teams to sign him.  The three teams i see making the greatest push are the Denver Broncos, Jacksonville Jaguars, and New York Jets.  Who he eventually signs with will be about whether he’s after the money, or a Superbowl Championship.

Prediction : Signs with Broncos

Case Keenum – The first of the three Minnesota Vikings Quarterbacks on this list, and definitely the most successful.  Case Keenum proved that he can be a starting Quarterback in the NFL.  His poor performance in the NFC Championship game will give some people pause.  There will be a lot of speculation about what he’s worth in the current Quarterback market.  I’m certain that many General Managers will decide that it’s too much.  Guaranteed that he will be the highest paid of the three Minnesota Vikings Quarterbacks in 2018, but who will pay him?  Well if the Broncos aren’t able to sign Cousins, I can see them make a play for Keenum.  They already have a great Defence, and that’s one of the reasons Keenum had success in Minnesota.  Truth be told though I think helhe end up elsewhere.

Prediction : Signs with the Browns

Sam Bradford – If only he could stay healthy.  Sam Bradford could be getting the kind of attention Kirk Cousins is right now.  When healthy he’s one of the most accurate passers in the NFL.  There are more than a few fans that thought he should be starting in last Season’s playoffs.  He has had such an injury riddled career that any team interested in Sam Bradford needs to also have a quality backup.  It’s this requirement that seriously limits the amount of teams that will be interested.  Among them i see Arizona, Jacksonville, and Buffalo as the most likely to make an offer.  I just don’t expect them to offer very much.  A one year contract, that’s heavily performance incentivized for high end backup money sounds about right.  That’s why I don’t think he will accept any of those offers.

Prediction : Signs with the Vikings

Teddy Bridgewater – The charismatic signal caller that showed great promise before going down with a Season ending injury.  He was drafted by the Minnesota Vikings to become their Quarterback of the future.  Now at the end of his rookie contract with only a small sample size of how his recovery effected his abilities.  I expect that he will remain as the Minnesota Vikings Quarterback of the future.  Between him and Bradford they will have two good Quarterbacks that are fully versed in their system.

Prediction : Signs with the Vikings

Josh McCown – Is it just me or does it seem like a lot of NFL Quarterbacks are getting better with age?  Josh McCown had arguably his best Season in the NFL with one of the most talent poor teams.  Throwing to a group of unwanted castoffs from other teams.  Guys you would have no problem picking up off your Fantasy Football League waiver wire.  Josh McCown had almost 3000 yards with 18 Touchdowns against only 9 interceptions, and a 67% completion rate.  Imagine what he might have accomplished with a roster that included a couple star players!  At this point in his career he won’t cost whichever team signs him a lot of cap space.  Given his age I would expect a team that believes that they can win right now to make a play for him.  That list includes Arizona, Buffalo, and Denver.  I’ve already picked Denver to sign Cousins.

Prediction : Signs with the Cardinals

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Superbowl 52 analysis – Cobe Life Predictions

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The numbers don’t lie, or do they?

New England Patriots vs Philadelphia Eagles

If you were to strictly judge these two teams based on their total potential. The Philadelphia Eagles would win Superbowl 52 rather easily. The Patriots only surpass them in two categories, and one of them is debatable. Obviously Tom Brady is the superior Quarterback so the Pats have the edge there.

Advantage – Patriots

Rob Gronkowski would be considered a better Tight End than Zach Ertz by most. Although the actual numbers aren’t much different. They both caught 8 touchdowns during the regular season. Although Gronk has more receiving yards, Ertz has more receptions. I would argue that they are actually even when you evaluate them on paper. Still to keep things from falling into too much of a grey area. I will give the edge to the Patriots at Tight End.

Advantage – Patriots

Now here’s where things begin to get a little one sided. I’m going to begin at the line of attack and work outwards.
When comparing the two Offensive lines the average fan might assume that the group protecting Brady would be the stronger group. Well you would be wrong. One of the reasons why Nick Foles can step in and have immediate success is the strength of the Eagles offensive line. The Patriots have a very good offensive line as well, and are especially good at protecting their franchise Quarterback. They just aren’t as good at all aspects of the game.

Advantage – Eagles

When comparing the two Defensive lines it becomes far more obvious which team is better. Even the casual fan can see the dominance of the Eagles defensive line. They are numero uno against the run. In comparison the New England Patriots are ranked 31rst overall against the run. Sure they have shown an improvement in their last few games. The stats are a bit skewed though because they were playing from behind against teams that were content trying to run out the clock. When you really analyze the numbers though. There’s no team better than the Philadelphia Eagles at controlling the line of scrimmage.

Advantage – Eagles

When comparing the Linebacker units the official depth charts don’t really tell the full story. Injuries have reduced the overall strength of the Eagles group, and recent acquisition James Harrison has been utilized more than his third string ranking would suggest. If you look at which players are actually performing on the field. The unit that will be making more individual plays should be the New England Patriots. Sorry Steelers fans.

Advantage – Patriots

The Running Back comparison was a lot closer before the Eagles signed Jay Ajayi. Used correctly, and Ajayi could end up being the difference in this game. The Patriots are well aware of what LeGarrette Blount can do in short yardage or goal line situations. If it wasn’t for the amount of attention defences focus on Tom Brady. Their group of Running Backs wouldn’t have the space they require to get meaningful yards. There isn’t a top quality Running Back among them.

Advantage – Eagles

When comparing the cornerback units the first thing that stands out is the two former Bills Players that have made an immediate impact. Stephon Gilmore and Ronald Darby are a couple of ball hawks that can make plays. They both have capable corners opposite them. Based upon individual talent the edge would go to the Patriots. Although things aren’t so cut and dry when you analyze the schemes they usually employ. I’ll get to that later.

Advantage – Patriots

Testing those cornerbacks will be two of the more underrated Wide Receiver groups in football. Both of these teams place a premium on spreading the ball around, and utilize their Tight Ends, and Running Backs in the passing game more than most. As a result the actual reception, yards, and touchdown numbers for their Wide Receivers are relatively low. That’s not to say that they don’t play an important role though. Brandin Cooks might be the most talented Wide Receiver on the field on Sunday, but his fellow Patriots Wide Receivers leave a lot to be desired. The Eagles have a great group of Wide Receivers that would be a huge advantage in this category if Tom Brady didn’t make the Patriots WRs perform better than expected.

Advantage – Eagles

When comparing the Safety units it’s difficult to ignore scheme, but I will. If you are only looking at the statistics. Especially big play statistics both for, and against. The Eagles safeties led by Malcolm Jenkins is marginally better. I’m not saying that the New England Patriots are outclassed, because they aren’t. The stats are more a result of the complete Defence as a whole.

Advantage – Eagles

On paper vs on the field

So by my calculations the overall Advantage goes to the Eagles by a score of 5 to 4. That’s really that much of an advantage right? Especially when you could argue that Tom Brady should be worth an additional point. Thus making the two teams even. Well here’s why I believe that the Eagles should be seen as strong favourites to win Superbowl 52. The Eagles should control the line of scrimmage throughout the game. By doing so their superior Running Backs should be more productive than the Patriots group. This will force the Patriots to play a pass heavy offence. Having Tom Brady under center makes this an appealing option except when you factor in the Eagles Defensive scheme. The Eagles play a lot of Nickel defense allowing their Safeties to effectively become free Safeties. Brady makes a living off of reading defences, but when there are more zone defenders than receiving options it becomes a gamble. I expect the turnover advantage will be in the Philadelphia Eagles favour, and turnovers lead to Superbowl Championships.

I expect the Philadelphia Eagles to be leading at half-time like many of the Patriots opponents have. Unlike many of those opponents though, I expect the Philadelphia Eagles Offence to keep the pressure on so their Defence doesn’t have to try and win the game on their own.

Advantage – Philadelphia Eagles

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Cobe Life 2018 NFL Playoff Predictions Divisional Round

 

Saturday’s Games

Atlanta Falcons at Philadelphia Eagles

Are the Eagles flavoured in this one?  I haven’t actually checked the betting line.  Considering their Season they probably are, but in my opinion they shouldn’t be.  As much as I like Nick Foles, he doesn’t run this offence as effectively as Carson Wentz.  The Eagles have a tonne of weapons at their disposal, but they all suffer a slight decrease in value with Foles under center.  Their Running game is formidable.  The tandem of Jay Ajayi and LeGarrette Blount can pound the rock.  A heavy dose of those two might be the Eagles best path to victory.  The only problem is that the Atlanta Falcons have a lot of speed on Defence.  So don’t expect Blount or Ajayi to break for any long runs.  If the Eagles win this game I would expect the  MVP to be Zach Ertz.  The Atlanta Falcons Defence can at times be a little soft across the middle. If Philadelphia has some success running the ball early.  The Falcons may pull a linebacker up into the box, opening up enough space for a top Tight End like Ertz to exploit the space.  Ertz matches up well against any Linebacker or Safety in single coverage so he could have a huge game.

All that being said, the Atlanta Falcons should really be licking their chops heading into Philadelphia.  At no time last week did they look like they might lose to the Rams.  Matty Ice was definitely in playoff form, and Julio Jones finally found the end zone.  For those of you who are paying attention I predicted a big game from Jones last week.  Losing the way they did in the Superbowl last year.  A Superbowl in which Julio Jones wasn’t targeted nearly enough, and he still had one of the best catches in Superbowl history.  The Falcons have learned their lesson, and leaned on their stars last week.  Well I would expect more of the same in this game.  Ryan, Jones, and Freeman will be expected to earn their pay on Saturday, and I don’t see why they won’t.  The Eagles don’t have a total wrecking ball like Aaron Donald to give Matt Ryan fits.  Fletcher Cox is a handful but he doesn’t possess the every down dominance of Donald.  Matt Ryan should have even more time to go through his progressions, and find the open man.  I expect this to be a very up and down game, but I expect Matt Ryan to be the better clutch performer down the stretch.

Atlanta Falcons by 4

Tennessee Titans at New England Patriots

I have to give credit where credit is due.  The Tennessee Titans beat a Kansas City Chiefs team that was packed full of talent, in their house, and showed late season form.  I didn’t give them a chance to win.  I don’t think anyone except hardcore Titans fans did.  Well congratulations Tennessee!  Enjoy the victory because it was your last.  Lets be honest here.  They will be traveling to Foxborough heavily outmatched.  Once again the New England Patriots have parlayed winning the weakest division in football being the top seed in the AFC, and “earning” themselves the easiest path to the Superbowl.  The Patriots key to victory is simple.  Protect Tom Brady so that he can effectively deliver the ball.  That’s been their plan all Season long.  They have an amazing offensive line, and to make matters worse for opposing teams utilize their Running Backs as quick toss receivers better than any other team.  That means that you have very little time to get to Tom Brady before he becomes an ineligible target.  It’s so frustrating for opposing Defensive Ends, and Linebackers that Brady draws a lot of roughing the passer penalties for late hits.  Now given all that can the Tennessee Titans get to Brady?  Shit no!  If you actually think that they can you’re deluded, or from Tennessee.  This game could end up being so lopsided that I might tune out at half-time.  Although there could be some garbage time heroics.

New England Patriots by 13

Sunday’s Games

Jacksonville Jaguars at Pittsburgh Steelers

You can almost taste the anticipation.  The Jacksonville Jaguars scrambled their way to their first playoff win in what feels like forever last week.  That earned them a trip to Pittsburgh home of the terrible towel to face a team they embarrassed earlier this Season.  You don’t need to be a fan of either team to know that they intercepted Ben Roethlisberger five times (two for touchdowns) the last time they played.  People were questioning whether Roethlisberger should consider retirement after that beating.  Well he didn’t retire, and if not for another controversial call that went the Patriots way again.  The Steelers would be playing the lowly Titans this week instead.  Obviously the Steelers are favoured, and despite what happened earlier in the Season they should be.  For the Steelers to win this game they only need to limit their mistakes.  So I expect a heavy dose of Le’Veon Bell in this game.  Allowing Ben Roethlisberger to get the ball out of his hands quickly with minimal risk.  Don’t count Antonio Brown out of this game though.  I expect that he will be recovered enough to make a serious impact.  People forget that he isn’t just a deep threat. He gains a lot of his yards after the catch on short passes.  Juju Smith Schuster has the ability to gain chunks of yards after the catch as well.  It’s this combination of quick strike weapons that should keep the Jacksonville Jaguars Defence in check.  Don’t fool yourself though. Big Ben will get sacked. Pittsburgh will be forced into a turnover or two.  This game will be a war.  Jacksonville could have the right tools to get the upset.  Except they don’t!  Bortles threw for a grand total of 87 yards against the Buffalo Bills last week.  That kind of production just won’t do against the high powered Steelers.

Pittsburgh Steelers by 9

New Orleans Saints at Minnesota Vikings

This could very well be the game of the week.  These two teams are pretty evenly  matched on paper.   Of course I’d give the nod to Drew Brees over Case Keenum.  I mean who wouldn’t?  Of course I’d give the advantage to the Vikings Defence over the Saints.  Nobody should think otherwise.  If you are a fan of the Running Back position you are in for a fantastic show.  Mark Ingram, Alvin Kamara, Latavius Murray, and Jerick McKinnon will all have opportunities to showcase their talents in this one.  If I had to pick just one as the Running Back to watch I’d go with Alvin Kamara.  The Vikings are so strong on the Defensive line that I expect Kamara to find the most success receiving passes out of the backfield.  Of all the games this weekend this game has the highest scoring potential because it’s being played in a dome.  The kickers will definitely play a role in deciding who wins, and expect a few deep passes to find their targets.  Of all the games I found this one to be the most difficult to predict.  In that case I have to give the advantage to the home team.

Minnesota Vikings by 3

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Cobe Life 2018 NFL Playoff Predictions

Bet on the Home Team

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This Season it’s particularly difficult to bet against the home team in the first Round.  That’s not to say that the visiting squads don’t have a chance.  Lets take a look at each match, and see where the keys to victory for each team lie.

Buffalo Bills at Jacksonville Jaguars

After an unlikely turn of events the Buffalo Bills find themselves back in the Post Season.  Predicted by most to be irrelevant this Season, the Bills surprised everyone with their exceptional Defensive play, and game breaking performances by LeSean McCoy and Tyrod Taylor.  They will need all three of those elements to be functioning at 100% if they expect to get by Jacksonville.  There lies the issue.  LeSean McCoy will definitely be less than 100% on Sunday.  Without LeSean McCoy at full strength to take some of the pressure off of Tyrod Taylor, the Jacksonville Jaguars’ pass rush will declare open season on the Bills’ QB.  That leaves the Buffalo Bills Defence as their only path to victory.  Their first job will be to contain rookie sensation Leonard Fournette.  If they are able to do that then forcing Blake Bortles into making key mistakes is what it will take to win.

Another surprise team in the Post Season, the Jacksonville Jaguars actually have all the tools necessary to go deep into the Playoffs.  A very strong Defence, a featured Running Back, weapons at all levels of the Offence, and some veteran leadership.  The only knock against them is the inconsistent play of their signal caller Blake Bortles. Don’t make the mistake of dismissing them for that reason.  Quarterbacks have won Superbowls with far worse play than Bortles has showcased this Season.  The old adage is that Defence wins championships.  Well if that is the case then the Jacksonville Jaguars could be on their way to the Superbowl.  In order to beat the Buffalo Bills, all Jacksonville will have to do is limit their mistakes.  Protecting the Ball will be their path to victory.  Fournette is such a Beast of a Running Back that the Bills won’t be able to totally contain him.  I don’t expect this to be a high scoring affair, but I expect Jacksonville to score Touchdowns when they get into the Red zone, and be able to limit the Buffalo Bills to only Field Goals.  In the end I expect that to be the difference.

Jacksonville Jaguars by 6

Tennessee Titans at Kansas City Chiefs

Now here is a match between two teams that are about as difficult to predict how they’ll play, or who will win.  If I were to ask you to describe what type of team the Tennessee Titans are.  What would your answer be?  Are they a hard Running clock control Offence?  Sometimes they are.  Is Mariota an elusive Quarterback that can go downfield and take over a game?  Well he’s done it before, but he’s also a competent game manager.  Their Defence is built to stop the Run but does it?  Honestly figuring out how the Titans might approach this particular game is difficult, and that’s what makes them dangerous.  You just don’t quite know what to expect when you face them.  There is one thing that they lack that the Kansas City Chiefs have plenty of though and that’s…       Star Power

At times this Season the Kansas City Chiefs appeared to be the best team in football.  Then again there were a few games they played this year that made them seem totally disorganized.  Which team will show up at Arrowhead stadium on Saturday remains to be seen.  One thing is for sure.  All eyes will be on Star Players Tyreek Hill, Kareem Hunt, Travis Kelce, and Alex Smith.  Each and every one of those players have proven that they can take over a game.  If just two of them step up Saturday’s game could end up as a blowout.  What Kansas City does best is strike hard and fast when you least expect it.  A delayed draw play to Kareem Hunt can quickly turn into 20+ yards.  A screen pass to Tyreek Hill in a third and long situation can suddenly become a trip to the endzone.  Try to limit the Kansas City Chiefs perimeter Offence, and you end up getting burned by Kelce across the middle.  Oh and just in case you thought you might be able to turn the game into a shootout.  The Kansas City Chiefs Defence is none too shabby either.  In other words the only way I can see the Kansas City Chiefs losing is if they beat themselves.  The thing is they’ve done it quite a few times this Season.  The thing is I don’t see them doing it at home.

Kansas City Chiefs by 10

Atlanta Falcons at Los Angeles Rams

“Embrace the suck” has been the Falcons motto this Season.  Well they’re back in the Post Season after their Superbowl meltdown last year.  There’s no denying that the Atlanta Falcons are excellent on paper.  They have a franchise Quarterback in Matty Ice.  Julio Jones is probably the most physically dominant Wide Receiver in the NFL.  Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman are a potent one two punch at Running Back.  They have veterans at every level of the Defence.  It shouldn’t really be a surprise that they are back in the playoffs.  Then why does it feel that way?  Things just haven’t clicked for the Atlanta Falcons this Season.  Something seems a little off.  Could it be that the team we watched in awe last Season was a total fluke?  I don’t think so.  What I believe is that it’s rare to have all of your Star Players playing to their full potential at the same time.  If the Atlanta Falcons want to win this game it’s going to be in Julio’s hands to do it.  When he has a great game, so does the entire team.  Double covered or not, just throw him the ball.  There aren’t too many Cornerback/Safety tandems that can effectively cover him.  Unfortunately for the Los Angeles Rams they don’t have one of those tandems.

So the Los Angeles Rams are not only in the Post Season, but they are playing at home.  They have who I would consider to be the Offensive Player of the year in Todd Gurley.  Jared Goff is playing like the first pick overall this Season.  The Rams Defence is still the dominant Defence it’s always been, but now gets to play with a lead at times.  5 times this Season they put up 40+ points so you know this Offence can score.  If there’s a weakness it’s whether or not they are ready for the Post Season.  Obviously the Falcons are ready.  They have got to be chomping at the bit to get back to the Superbowl.  This game will come down to who stops who’s Star Player.  Will the Falcons be able to contain Todd Gurley, or will the Rams be able to contain Julio Jones?  As much as I want to see the Rams advance I’m going to go with the experience here.

Atlanta Falcons by 3

Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints

Superman is in the building.  The success of this Season’s Carolina Panthers begins and ends with their charismatic signal caller Cam Newton.  Injuries and inconsistencies have plagued their usually dominant Defence.  This Season the wins came through the strength of Cam’s arm, and at times his legs.  Having Greg Olsen back is a huge boost, but will it be enough?  The Panthers lack a legitimate deep threat to help keep the New Orleans Saints Defence honest.  You can almost guarantee that the Saints will dedicate at least a linebacker to keep close tabs on Cam, and I would expect a few Corner or Safety blitzes as well.  I know I’m supposed to be campaigning on Carolina’s behalf during this paragraph but it’s difficult to do so.  Cam will have to be almost perfect to win this game.

The New Orleans Saints resemble the team that won the Superbowl.  Drew Brees is still one of the Top Quarterbacks in the NFL.  They have the best tandem of Running Backs in football with Mark Ingram, and Alvin Kamara.  Michael Thomas has quietly become one of the Top Wide Receivers in the NFL.  Their Defence which has been their Achilles heel in recent Seasons is playing at a very high level.  Home field advantage is absolutely huge for the Saints.  Losing at home is a rarity for them.  The Superdome is easily in the Top 5 of Home field advantage stadiums.  Player to Player the New Orleans Saints are just better than the Carolina Panthers.  Of all the games this weekend, this is the one I’m most certain of.  It would be a travesty if the Saints lost this game.

New Orleans Saints by 11

Categories
FANTASY Uncategorized

Sports Fanatics play Fantasy SF-13 QB Draft

Drafting a Quarterback

Choosing when to draft a Quarterback is one of the most important decisions you will make.  The top Running Backs will be off the board within the first two rounds.  After they’re all gone second, and third tier Running Backs are plentiful.  Other than a handful of marquee Wide Receivers.  There are plenty of useful options at Wide Receiver that can be had all the way through your draft.  The Tight End position even simpler.  Outside of taking Gronkowski early.  The difference in quality between the majority of Tight Ends is insignificant.

Things are far different when comparing Quarterbacks.  The difference in fantasy production from tier to tier is far greater.  A top tier Quarterback can earn you an extra five to ten fantasy points over your opponent if they have a third tier Quarterback.  In a twelve team league at least a third of the teams will have a third tier Quarterback.  This is a disadvantage that you shouldn’t take lightly.

When preparing for your draft it’s important to pay attention to which teams are in your division.  Many leagues including mine automatically get you into the playoffs if you win your division.  My leagues are twelve teams with three divisions.  You play each team in your division twice.  Obviously how my team performs against my division rivals is extremely important.  So how do I make sure my team keeps pace?  I pay close attention to who my division rivals are picking during the draft.  This is especially true when deciding when to draft my Quarterback.  Lets say my plan going into the draft is to pick a Quarterback with big play potential like Eli Manning, or Carson Palmer.  Third tier Quarterbacks with an eighth Round value in my opinion.  This allows me to top load my team with Running Backs and Wide Receivers.  What happens if somebody in my division drafts Aaron Rodgers with their first pick?  Suddenly any Quarterback I pick is at a serious disadvantage against this division rival.  Of course I had previously decided not to waste an early Round pick on the best Quarterback in Fantasy.  I knew somebody was going to take him.  Unfortunately he landed in my division.  Still  I’m not too worried because I got A.J. Green with the 10th pick, and he will be better than any Wide Receiver that Manager drafts.  Fast forward to the third Round, and another Manager in my division picks Tom Brady.  It’s at this point that my original plan suddenly appears sorely insufficient.

Considering that I will have to play each Manager in my division twice.  I’m now faced with a twelve game regular season that includes a third of the season against two of the best Quarterbacks in Fantasy.  Selecting either one of my targeted Quarterbacks would leave me at a major positional disadvantage.  At this point I was forced to adjust my draft Strategy, and target a second tier Quarterback.  I quickly checked the board to see who was available.  I placed all of the second tier Quarterbacks in my queue.  Then I continued to follow my draft Strategy until only two was left.  When my next pick came around there was only one left so I snatched him up.

On a draft Application like nfl.com it’s always a good idea to fill your queue with potential picks.  This is especially true if you aren’t emotionally attached to any specific Player.  For me that means Quarterbacks, and Tight Ends tend to clog up my queue.  I won’t reach for a top tier Quarterback, or Gronkowski.  So who I get at either position just needs to be a competitive Fantasy Player.

To help you decide which Quarterbacks to target going into your draft.  I’ll quickly go over three categories of Quarterbacks I’ve identified.

Top tier Quarterbacks

Aaron Rodgers: honestly Aaron Rodgers could be in a category all by himself.  The most dominant Quarterback in Fantasy Football.  His situation in Green Bay is a Fantasy Manager’s wet dream.  He’s so important to the offence, and so successful.  Green Bay seems disinterested in finding a quality Running Back for him to hand off to.  He’s really the only Quarterback that could be drafted in the first Round.  If you want him on your team you had better be ready to pay up.

Drew Brees: a threat to break 5000 yards passing every single Season.  That about says it right there.  You are practically guaranteed at least 30 touchdowns.  It’s also a benefit to whoever drafts him that the New Orleans Saints Defence couldn’t stop the Toronto Argos from scoring.  Brees finds himself playing from behind all too often.  Getting the ball down field fast, and in to the end zone is a necessity.

Tom Brady: as long as he is healthy,  Tom Brady will continue to put up huge numbers.  As an added bonus the Patriots like to run up the score against weak opponents.  With teams like the Bills, and the Jets in their division.  You are practically guaranteed to get some huge Fantasy weeks out of Brady.

Andrew Luck: Andrew Luck can be considered a borderline top tier/second tier Quarterback.  There’s the concern surrounding his recent shoulder surgery.  There’s also the concern surrounding his offensive line.  If he comes back healthy?   There’s no guarantee that he will remain healthy for long.  If the Offensive line can prevent Luck from looking like he just went 10 rounds with Mike Tyson every game?  Then Andrew Luck could become the Top Quarterback in Fantasy Football.  He’s that good.

Second tier Quarterbacks

Marcus Mariota: he has had a lot of success in Fantasy Football already.  Considering that he hasn’t had top level receiving targets.  His Fantasy numbers are really based on his talent alone.  The Titans rewarded him with three new offensive targets in the Draft.  If even one of them pan out.  Expect Mariota to have a great Season.

Kirk Cousins: another great Season, and what does he get?  One more year under the franchise tag.  He could have accepted a contract that would have made him the second highest paid Quarterback.  Instead he chose to gamble on himself.  If he puts together another great Season.  He stands to become the highest paid Player in the league.  He could also end up at the helm of a true contender.  All of this is music to a Fantasy Manager’s ears.  He lost Pierre Garcon, and DeSean Jackson in the off season.  Honestly though with what is at stake for Cousins.  I’m not worried.

Jameis Winston: not only does he keep improving every year.  The Bucs did him a huge favour by signing DeSean Jackson in the off season.  Read my full Jameis Winston analysis on the Starting from Scratch post SF-7.

Derek Carr: a young talented Quarterback, on one of the most star packed teams.  Sounds like a great situation for success right.  What many people overlook is how a great Defence adds value to their Quarterback.  The more three and outs they get.  The more opportunities their Quarterback will have to earn you points.  Derek Carr will have a great Season.

The last category consists of a group of Quarterbacks that could surprise many people in Fantasy Football.  Matt Ryan’s ridiculous Season last year was an example.

Top 5 potential breakout Quarterbacks

Cam Newton: new offensive Weapons, only one Season removed from an MVP.

Eli Manning: addition of Brandon Marshall makes the Giants Wide Receiver tandem brutally difficult to defend.

Tyrod Taylor: always a threat on his feet, a healthy Sammy Watkins greatly increases his ceiling, needs to prove to the Bills that he’s their future.

Ben Roethlisberger: deep threat Martavis Bryant is back, will have Le’Veon Bell for a full Season.

Andy Dalton: the addition of Joe Mixon and John Ross, a healthy Tyler Eifert, needs to rebound from a statistically poor Season.

Hopefully this will help you put a plan in place to draft the best possible Quarterback.  Even if the unexpected happens in your draft.