Tag: nfl picks

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FANTASY Uncategorized

BRADY VS BELICHICK

SETTLE DOWN FANS!

Everyone is getting excited about the return of Brady and Belichick. Only this time they are on opposite sides. Tom Brady the leader of the Superbowl champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Bill Belichick the leader of the New England Patriots who failed to reach the playoffs.

Lets just look at my previous sentence for a second. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are defending Superbowl champions. In fact they have a chance to repeat with the exact same roster they had last season. That’s right they did the almost impossible feat of resigning everyone from their Superbowl winning team. The Patriots didn’t make the playoffs their first year without Tom Brady. In fact they didn’t even have a winning season. It’s also a problem when the individual on a football team that gets the most attention from the media is the coach. The true leader of a successful NFL team should be on the field playing.

The Buccaneers only loss was last week against the L.A. Rams. A team I picked to go to the Superbowl this season. The Patriots only win so far was against the N.Y. Jets. The Jets are arguably the worst team in the entire league. Does anyone actually believe this is going to be a competitive contest? I definitely don’t!

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have one of the best pass rushes in football. The Patriots have rookie quarterback Mac Jones starting against them. Take the over on 2.5 sacks for the Bucs on Sunday night.

Sure it might be interesting to see how Tom and Bill greet each other before the game. They are both professionals though so don’t expect anything disrespectful. When it actually comes to the game though. This should be an absolute blow out for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. It’s possible the game could be out of reach at halftime.

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FANTASY FOOTBALL STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE

QUARTERBACKS

THE BEST

  • 49ers
  • Rams
  • Patriots
  • Dolphins
  • Saints
  • Jaguars

THE WORST

  • Chargers
  • Raiders
  • Cowboys
  • Chiefs
  • Browns
  • Bengals

RUNNING BACKS

THE BEST

  • Broncos
  • Steelers
  • Ravens
  • Browns
  • Chargers
  • Chiefs

THE WORST

  • Buccaneers
  • Saints
  • Cowboys
  • Eagles
  • Panthers
  • Seahawks

WIDE RECEIVERS

THE BEST

  • 49ers
  • Rams
  • Saints
  • Patriots
  • Falcons
  • Dolphins

THE WORST

  • Chargers
  • Raiders
  • Chiefs
  • Browns
  • Bengals
  • Seahawks

TIGHT ENDS

THE BEST

  • Dolphins
  • Patriots
  • 49ers
  • Saints
  • Steelers
  • Cardinals

THE WORST

  • Cowboys
  • Browns
  • Bills
  • Titans
  • Panthers
  • Vikings

Observations
-Matt Stafford and the LA Rams Receivers look to have an optimum situation. The Rams have the second easiest strength of schedule at both positions. Matt Stafford is a veteran signal caller with multiple 5000 yard seasons already in the books. With the season ending injury to Cam Akers. I expect Sean McVey to lean on the pass more.

-The LA Chargers have the toughest strength of schedule for Justin Herbert and his wideouts. Justin Herbert has been a popular pick in drafts just after the Top Tier of Quarterbacks come off the board. Coming off his outstanding rookie performance. Fantasy Managers are obviously expecting his success to continue. That might not be the case for the sophomore QB.

-The Broncos look like they will begin the season with a two RB platoon of Melvin Gordon III, and Javonte Williams. This has scared off a few Fantasy Managers. With the easiest strength of schedule for Running Backs. A platoon approach could still produce two 1000 yard Running Backs with plenty of TDs to go around. Don’t be afraid to draft either back as an RB3 with huge upside.

-The 49ers and the Patriots look poised to have a lot of production from their Tight Ends no matter who they have throwing the ball.

  • A lot of people are predicting a breakout season for Irv Smith jr. With a difficult strength of schedule for Tight Ends that might not be the case.
  • If you are struggling deciding who to pick when your turn approaches. Let the Strength of Schedule guide be the tie breaker whenever possible.

Corbert de Ronde

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FANTASY

NFL WILD CARD WEEKEND 2020

Houston Texans vs Buffalo Bills

This game required overtime to finally decide the winner. In the end the Home team Houston Texans won. I picked the Texans to win, but with Will Fuller out I knew it could be close. Without Will Fuller the Texans aren’t able to attack down field. When they are unable to stretch the field the intermediate routes get taken away by the safeties. This forced the Texans to play a very conservative short pass offense. Their running game is mediocre so play action wasn’t much of an option either. They would have to grind it out to win.

The Buffalo Bills were the lucky recipients of one of the easiest schedules in the NFL this Season. In order to finish with a 10-6 regular season record. They only had to beat 1 team with a winning record. This was the biggest factor that contributed to my pick of the Houston Texans. Their inexperience against quality opponents had me thinking that costly mistakes would be made. If the Texans play like that next week they will get thumped.

New England Patriots vs Tennessee Titans

As soon as I saw this match up I knew what would happen. The Patriots were the recipient of the absolute easiest schedule in football. They were also coming off a loss to the Miami Dolphins! Vegas still had them as the favourite which was ridiculous. I predicted that Derrick Henry was going to run all over them, and he did. The Patriots Defense was so ineffective against the run, that the Titans continued to run the ball during the 2 minute offense at the end of the first half. Vrabel even used a Belichick trick, and took multiple delay of game penalties to burn the clock. The Patriots won’t have the benefit of such an easy schedule next Season. It remains to be seen if this was Tom Brady’s last game as a New England Patriot.

New Orleans Saints vs Minnesota Vikings

The Saints were my pick to win the Superbowl so obviously I got this one wrong. This was a game decided by mistakes. It required overtime to decide the winner, but in my opinion it was over before that. Most people, myself included probably expected the Minnesota Vikings to be the team that made the big mistakes. Kirk Cousins record in big games is far from exemplary. Drew Brees on the other hand generally plays his best on a big stage. Not in this game. Drew Brees made one of the ugliest fumbles I’ve seen in quite some time. Generally speaking a Quarterback shouldn’t fumble the ball when they are fully aware of where the pressure is coming from. With the New Orleans Saints in scoring position Drew Brees fumbled the ball, and that was pretty much the game.

Seattle Seahawks vs Philadelphia Eagles

I am a huge Seahawks fan so that factored into my pick of them to win a little bit. Really though it was the injury depleted Eagles that gave me confidence. I didn’t expect Carson Wentz to get knocked out of the game at the end of the first quarter though. That pretty much spelled the end of them. Honestly if Carson Wentz had come back after half time I think the Seahawks would have lost. Josh McCown couldn’t convert two fourth down attempts. I’m certain Carson Wentz would have converted at least one. The real standout in this game was rookie DK Metcalf. He finished with 7 receptions for 160 yards, and a touchdown. Not bad for a Wide Receiver that every team passed on.

All in all it was a great Wild Card Weekend. The real games begin next week.

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FANTASY

THE AFC EAST CONSPIRACY

Sure it’s a sport, but it’s also a business

So another NFL Season is in the books, and to no one’s surprise the New England Patriots have won the Superbowl… Again. Chants of them being the greatest dynasty ever, Belichick a coaching genius, and Brady as the goat can be heard in every sports bar. Seems like the second you begin to doubt their dominance, they suddenly get that much better. The truth of the matter is that the sudden performance increase has nothing to do with the Patriots themselves. It has everything to do with their competition.

Last Season the sudden increase in performance began in Week 12 after their Bye Week. The final six weeks of the Season they would face AFC East rivals 4 times. They would go on to win three of those games, and lose to the Pittsburgh Steelers, but beat the Minnesota Vikings. This would prove to be just enough to earn them the Bye going into the playoffs. If you are at all like me, you might be wondering how the New England Patriots have easily defeated their division rivals for a decade? This has always puzzled me. How can an NFL franchise be so inept at developing a team that’s competitive for ten years? A friend of mine, and I were discussing this the other day, and he had an interesting theory.

Maybe the Buffalo Bills, Miami Dolphins, and New York Jets have accepted that the cost to build a team that can challenge the Belichick/Brady combination is just too costly. Why spend the money to acquire quality free agents, or sign your star players to long lucrative contracts. If all you will get back in return is a slim chance to make it into the playoffs as a Wild Card team. Probably the most obvious attempt to have a losing Season came when the Buffalo Bills didn’t keep Tyrod Taylor as their starting Quarterback. The Player who stepped up, and practically willed his team into the Playoffs. In the end it’s possible The Buffalo Bills saw that as an unfortunate loss of Draft capital.

Remember this is just a theory

There have been other Teams, or individuals that have had to deal with this same conundrum. Imagine how F1 Drivers for Williams felt when Michael Schumacher was driving for Ferrari. How do you think Ernie Els felt when Tiger Woods was at the top of his game? Imagine being a Player for the Utah Jazz during Michael Jordan’s run? Would you have spent millions of dollars to marginally improve an individual or teams chances to defeat any of them? The answer is probably not. What’s even more difficult when it comes to the situation in the NFL AFC East, is that in order to unseat the Patriots as favourites. You would have to not only improve your own team, but expect the other teams in the Division to do so as well. It doesn’t help to split your Season series with the New England Patriots if they can just steam roll the other two teams for four wins.

So what is a Franchise Owner to do?

The answer might be to play the long game. How many more years will The Patriots have their Star Power? Will Brady play three more years? Maybe, but I honestly doubt it. What does he have left to play for? He now owns more Superbowl rings than any other Player in NFL history. He is a multiple winner of the League MVP award. He’s over 40, and although the league keeps making it safer for Quarterbacks it only takes one awkward hit to get seriously injured. One of Tom Brady’s favourite targets won’t be around much longer. If Gronkowski doesn’t call it quits this Season, he probably won’t be around for the next one. Who’s willing to bet that if Brady retires, then Belichick will call it quits right after. I’ll make that bet right now. Lets assume that all three are gone in three Seasons. If that’s the case then drafting Quarterbacks that require a bit of coaching up like say Josh Allen, and Sam Darnold seems like a great idea. While they are developing you probably won’t post too many winning Seasons, and you can build a strong group of skill Players around them through the Draft. If they don’t pan out in time, then you should have a lot of Cap space to go out and get a Playoff ready Quarterback in Free Agency.

The point is that when the time comes you’ll be ready, and you won’t have wasted too much money getting there. For fans of these three storied Franchises that can remember what it was like to have Powerhouse teams lead by the likes of Joe Namath, Dan Marino, and Jim Kelly it can’t be easy watching them lose year after year. All I can say to them is that there is light at the end of the tunnel. For the first time in a long time you can begin to see it.

OF COURSE THIS IS JUST A THEORY