Tag: NFL football

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FANTASY

FANTASY FOOTBALL TIER VALUE DRAFT STRATEGY

TIER VALUE DRAFT SYSTEM

  • some Fantasy Football Analysts suggest you use ADP as your guide to determining Draft Value. Do yourself a favour and stop taking their advice!
  • there are another school of Fantasy Football Analysts that believe you should use their Top 200 ranking system. Then select your players based on the highest ranked player available and fill your roster positions. If your goal is to finish in the middle of the pack? Then by all means do that.
  • if you actually want to win then you need to be getting more VALUE with your draft picks than your opponents are. That’s it. It’s that simple! So how do you achieve that? Which position do you draft when? Are there specific Players you need to target?
  • the TIER VALUE DRAFT SYSTEM is extremely effective, and even more importantly easy. The real beauty of it is that it’s totally reactive. Essentially your opponents selections are setting you up to win your draft. The only choices you make are based upon positional preference. The system begins before the draft. You need to organize the players by their position (QB, RB, WR, TE) into Tiers. Tier 1 being the most valuable, Tier 2 the second most, Tier 3 the third, and so on. Some Positions will have more Tiers than others. Generally I include the very best Players at their position in Tier 1. Tier 2 includes Players that could score as many Fantasy points as the Tier 1 players but aren’t as certain. Tier 3 players have a high ceiling as well but come with some risk. Tier 4 and below are usually safe backups, Rookies, and total Wild Cards I might draft late. How many players are in each Tier is up to you. This season I have seen Fantasy Football Analysts have as few as 4 Top Tier Running Backs, or as many as 6. It doesn’t matter what they think. It only matters what you believe. Depending on where you pick in the first Round. That Top Tier of RBs could be important. In the TIER VALUE DRAFT SYSTEM you don’t want to be the first or even second person to draft a Tier 2 player when there are Tier 1 players available at another position. Lets say you have decided that there are 5 Tier 1 RBs in the draft. If you draft 6 then your first pick shouldn’t be an RB. Your choice should be the Player you believe will provide you with the greatest advantage at another position. Tight End is an attractive choice at this point. The Tier 1 Tight Ends scored an average of 8 points per game more than Tier 2 Tight Ends in 2020. That’s a greater advantage than QBs or WRs. Plus there are only 3 or 4 Tier 1 Tight Ends. So you would have a significant advantage over most of your league. In Round 2 you could probably still draft a Tier 2 RB. The same perceived VALUE at a lower price.
  • your goal is to fill your positions by paying less than your opponents, and to maximize your average points per game. In traditional PPR formats with 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, and 1 FLEX. You should rank the importance of the positions in this order.
    RB – TE (Tier 1 only) – WR – QB – TE ( Tier 2+)
  • so whenever possible you should aim to draft one of the last players available from each tier to fill out your roster. For example if there are only a few Tier 2 Running Backs left in your draft when your selection arrives. Grab one then. That way you have paid less for your Tier 2 RB than everyone who picked a Tier 2 RB ahead of you. The only time you pay more is when a higher Tier position you require to fill your roster is still available.

EXAMPLE OF TIER VALUE DRAFT SYSTEM

  • these are my current Quarterback Tiers for 2021.

Tier 1
Patrick Mahomes 2020 #5
Kyler Murray 2020 #2
Josh Allen 2020 #1
Dak Prescott 2020 Injury
Lamar Jackson 2020 #9
*Aaron Rodgers 2020 #3

  • Obviously if you are able to draft one of the Tier 1 QBs for a decent value you should. Just remember that perception isn’t necessarily reality. Most people would assume that Patrick Mahomes was the Top QB last season but actually finished 5th overall in Fantasy points. Utilizing my Tier Value Draft System last Season. I drafted Kyler Murray in the 4th Round and finished with a higher scoring Fantasy Football QB than Patrick Mahomes who went in the 2nd Round of my draft. Any of the QBs in Tier 1 could finish as the best Quarterback in Fantasy Football this Season. Don’t pick favourites, pick VALUE!
  • It still isn’t a guarantee that Aaron Rodgers will play this Season. If you aren’t sure by the time of your Draft then avoid him.

Tier 2 (-4 points per game average)
Tom Brady 2020 #7
Russell Wilson 2020 #6
Ryan Tannehill 2020 #8
Justin Herbert 2020 #8
Joe Burrow 2020 Injury
*Deshaun Watson 2020 #4

  • If I miss out on a Tier 1 QB I make it a priority to draft a Tier 2. You should expect them to perform at a slightly lower rate than the Tier 1 Quarterbacks. Any of these QBs could potentially outperform a Tier 1 QB though, so these are great Value targets in a Draft. In most Fantasy Football drafts I usually land a Tier 2 QB as my starter. The reason for this is because the obvious Top QBs tend to go too early for my liking. Usually you are still able to draft a Tier 2 Quarterback at least 3 Rounds after the last Tier 1 Quarterback gets drafted. That means you have at least 4 Rounds of picks to make up an average of 4 points per game on the Teams that drafted a Tier 1. That could have happened in the second Round if your opponent drafted a QB in the first, and you landed a Top 10 Fantasy Running Back.
  • DeShaun Watson could end up sitting out in Houston, or he could get traded to a contender. Of course he has criminal charges to deal with as well. Best case scenario he ends up in Denver and is a total steal as a Tier 2 QB. Worst case scenario he doesn’t play at all.

Tier 3 (QBs with upside)
Matt Ryan
Matthew Stafford
Daniel Jones
Ryan Fitzpatrick
Jameis Winston

  • Tier 3 has a number of Quarterbacks that could breakout in 2021. If you are a gambler, and lets be honest. If you love Fantasy Football you probably are. Then Tier 3 QBs are very tempting draft targets. They can be drafted relatively late in drafts after you have stocked up on quality RBs, WRs, and a Top Tier TE. I used to have a system I called the Dallas Clark Draft. Dallas Clark was the Travis Kelce equivalent back in the day. If I didn’t have a Top 5 pick in the draft. My first Round target was always Dallas Clark. Then I would draft best player available RB or WR until all of the Tier 1 and Tier 2 QBs were gone. Then I would target whichever Tier 3 QB was in the most favourable position. My team had an advantage at TE against my league, plus it was practically injury proof at RB and WR. In this group the NFC East QBs are the most interesting to me. It’s a weak division, and both QBs have great new targets to throw to.

Tier 4 (wildcards and safe floors)
Trevor Lawrence
Justin Fields
Zach Wilson
Derek Carr
Ben Roethlisberger
Baker Mayfield
Tua Tagovailoa

  • If you have drafted a Tier 4 QB as your starter you might be in trouble. That doesn’t mean you should avoid them entirely though. I am a strong believer in drafting a backup QB. A lot of Fantasy Football analysts would disagree with me but they’re wrong. First of all there’s always a serious QB injury early in the season. Having a backup QB like Roethlisberger or Carr provides piece of mind. Even if your QB goes unscathed. Limiting what’s available off the waiver wire is strategic as well. You also won’t have to scramble during your Starter’s bye week. I have also spot started my Backup against really weak defenses to good effect. If you are really lucky your backup becomes your starter. That happened on quite a few winning teams in Lamar Jackson’s MVP season.

RECENT QUARTERBACK MOCK DRAFT POSITION AVERAGE FROM FANTASY FOOTBALL CALCULATOR WEBSITE

QB1 – Patrick Mahomes 22nd pick
QB2 – Josh Allen 37th pick
QB3 – Kyler Murray 44th pick
QB4 – Lamar Jackson 51rst pick
QB5 – Dak Prescott 58th pick
QB6 – Justin Herbert 63rd pick
QB7 – Aaron Rodgers 66th pick
QB8 – Russell Wilson 70th pick
QB9 – Tom Brady 79th pick
QB10 – Matthew Stafford 88th pick
QB11 – Jalen Hurts 97th pick
QB12 – Ryan Tannehill 100th pick
QB13 – Joe Burrow 107th pick
QB14 – Matt Ryan 124th pick
QB15 – Trevor Lawrence 128th pick
QB16 – Deshaun Watson 130th pick
QB17 – Baker Mayfield 140th pick
QB20 – Ben Roethlisberger 169th pick
QB21 – Justin Fields 179th pick
QB22 – Ryan Fitzpatrick 191rst pick
QB23 – Derek Carr 192nd pick
QB25 – Tua Tagovailoa 198th pick
QB26 – Jameis Winston 207th pick

  • personally I play in 12 team leagues with 15 or 16 Round drafts. So even in a 16 Round draft a number of the QBs I listed in my Tiers wouldn’t get drafted.
  • now examining the Tier 1 QBs from my list. The most expensive Quarterback this season is once again Patrick Mahomes. In a 12 Team league he is going at the end of the second Round. The best buys in Tier 1 are Dak Prescott and Lamar Jackson going in the fifth Round. I am ignoring Aaron Rodgers for now because of his uncertain situation. How much better would Patrick Mahomes need to be to justify picking him 3 Rounds earlier? Chances are he won’t perform significantly better enough. Using the Tier Value Draft System there’s a good chance that any Team that drafted in Round five had a chance at a Tier 1 QB. IT PAYS TO WAIT!
  • Always be aware of which teams picking ahead of you have filled roster positions. If the teams picking ahead of you have already drafted a QB then you should be good to land the next QB on your list.
  • looking at the Tier 2 Quarterbacks, Herbert went in the early 6th Round. That’s a heavy price to pay for a Tier 2 QB. The fact that 2 of my Tier 1 QBs went just one Round earlier increases how valuable those picks were. Both Ryan Tannehill and Joe Burrow fell to the 8th Round. I would say that’s a competitive price for a Tier 2 QB. You gain 3 Rounds of VALUE against the cheapest Tier 1 QBs, and an enormous 6 Rounds of VALUE against the Team that selected Patrick Mahomes in the second Round! Try to imagine how much better Patrick Mahomes would have to be than Tannehill or Burrow to justify the cost? 12 points per game maybe? Is that a realistic ask?
  • once again considering that Tannehill and Burrow went near the beginning and end of that Round. Any of the Teams involved in those drafts had a fair shot of waiting until the rest of the Tier got picked to select them. IT PAYS TO WAIT!

MAKE YOUR TIER LISTS
SCRATCH OFF EACH PLAYER AS THEY GET SELECTED
WHEN THERE ARE ONLY A FEW LEFT PICK ONE!
WHEN A TIER EMPTIES – PICK YOUR FAVOURITE PLAYER FROM ANOTHER POSITION YOU REQUIRE AT A HIGHER TIER!
WIN YOUR DRAFT

Corbert de Ronde
Fantasy Football Expert
Pro Sports Podcasters

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NFL AFC WINNERS AND LOSERS IN THE 2020 OFF SEASON

OLD NAMES NEW HOMES

Since the modern free agency era in the NFL began back in 1993. The addition of unrestricted free agents has allowed talented “mercs” to switch teams every Season. They were either looking for a bigger pay day, or the possibility of signing with a Superbowl bound team. The 2020 off season has had it’s share off NFL stars sign with new squads.

High profile signings in the AFC

Philip Rivers – signed to a 1 year deal with the Indianapolis Colts

Stefon Diggs – acquired by the Buffalo Bills via trade with 4 years remaining on his contract

Melvin Gordon – signed with the Denver Broncos for 2 years

Brandin Cooks – acquired by the Houston Texans via trade with 4 years remaining on his contract

David Johnson – acquired by the Houston Texans via trade with 1 year remaining on his contract

Jordan Howard – signed with the Miami Dolphins for 2 years

Austin Hooper – signed with the Cleveland Browns for 4 years

Byron Jones – signed with the Miami Dolphins for 5 years

Chris Harris Jr – signed with the Los Angeles Chargers for 2 years

Kyle Van Noy – signed with the Miami Dolphins for 4 years

Shaq Lawson – signed with the Miami Dolphins for 3 years

Linval Joseph – signed with the Los Angeles Chargers for 2 years

Vic Beasley – signed with the Tennessee Titans for 1 year

Mario Addison – signed with the Buffalo Bills for 3 years

Derek Wolfe – signed with the Baltimore Ravens for 1 year

Calais Campbell – acquired by the Baltimore Ravens via trade with 1 year remaining plus a 1 year extension

WINNERS AND LOSERS OF EACH DIVISION

https://youtu.be/15k6Jbv4Dps
https://youtu.be/V2xmyXVa7cY
https://youtu.be/jYtWzJYjmCM
https://youtu.be/-69T-C4jCq8

The biggest winner

If I had to select one team in the AFC that had the most successful off season. It would have to be the Miami Dolphins. They made some of the absolute best Free Agent signings in the entire league. They had a tonne of Cap room space and spent it wisely. They have the makings of an all star Defense in place with their new acquisitions. They then followed that up by convincing the league they weren’t interested in the most dynamic player in the draft Tua Tagovailoa. Allowing them to patiently sit at their fifth pick draft position and take him there. Keeping all of that additional draft capital to spend on key positional players. The Miami Dolphins might take a Season or two to properly develop. They should be seen as a legitimate challenger to the AFC East crown.

The biggest loser

This shouldn’t come as a surprise. It ends up being a team from my winner’s division the AFC East. It’s of course the New England Patriots. The dynasty has come to an unfortunate end. Tom Brady has decided to finish his career elsewhere. Leaving the New England Patriots with a total unknown at Quarterback. Their Offense was abysmal with Brady at Quarterback last season. Try to imagine how it will be now. They have one of the oldest teams in the league by average age. To add insult to injury former star Tight End Rob Gronkowski agreed to come out of retirement. Only if the Patriots agreed to trade him to Tampa Bay so he can play with Brady. The New England Patriots didn’t make any key acquisitions in Free Agency. They also had a very uninspiring draft. Looks like they are hoping to find their Quarterback of the future next season or the season after.

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FANTASY

NFL WILD CARD WEEKEND 2020

Houston Texans vs Buffalo Bills

This game required overtime to finally decide the winner. In the end the Home team Houston Texans won. I picked the Texans to win, but with Will Fuller out I knew it could be close. Without Will Fuller the Texans aren’t able to attack down field. When they are unable to stretch the field the intermediate routes get taken away by the safeties. This forced the Texans to play a very conservative short pass offense. Their running game is mediocre so play action wasn’t much of an option either. They would have to grind it out to win.

The Buffalo Bills were the lucky recipients of one of the easiest schedules in the NFL this Season. In order to finish with a 10-6 regular season record. They only had to beat 1 team with a winning record. This was the biggest factor that contributed to my pick of the Houston Texans. Their inexperience against quality opponents had me thinking that costly mistakes would be made. If the Texans play like that next week they will get thumped.

New England Patriots vs Tennessee Titans

As soon as I saw this match up I knew what would happen. The Patriots were the recipient of the absolute easiest schedule in football. They were also coming off a loss to the Miami Dolphins! Vegas still had them as the favourite which was ridiculous. I predicted that Derrick Henry was going to run all over them, and he did. The Patriots Defense was so ineffective against the run, that the Titans continued to run the ball during the 2 minute offense at the end of the first half. Vrabel even used a Belichick trick, and took multiple delay of game penalties to burn the clock. The Patriots won’t have the benefit of such an easy schedule next Season. It remains to be seen if this was Tom Brady’s last game as a New England Patriot.

New Orleans Saints vs Minnesota Vikings

The Saints were my pick to win the Superbowl so obviously I got this one wrong. This was a game decided by mistakes. It required overtime to decide the winner, but in my opinion it was over before that. Most people, myself included probably expected the Minnesota Vikings to be the team that made the big mistakes. Kirk Cousins record in big games is far from exemplary. Drew Brees on the other hand generally plays his best on a big stage. Not in this game. Drew Brees made one of the ugliest fumbles I’ve seen in quite some time. Generally speaking a Quarterback shouldn’t fumble the ball when they are fully aware of where the pressure is coming from. With the New Orleans Saints in scoring position Drew Brees fumbled the ball, and that was pretty much the game.

Seattle Seahawks vs Philadelphia Eagles

I am a huge Seahawks fan so that factored into my pick of them to win a little bit. Really though it was the injury depleted Eagles that gave me confidence. I didn’t expect Carson Wentz to get knocked out of the game at the end of the first quarter though. That pretty much spelled the end of them. Honestly if Carson Wentz had come back after half time I think the Seahawks would have lost. Josh McCown couldn’t convert two fourth down attempts. I’m certain Carson Wentz would have converted at least one. The real standout in this game was rookie DK Metcalf. He finished with 7 receptions for 160 yards, and a touchdown. Not bad for a Wide Receiver that every team passed on.

All in all it was a great Wild Card Weekend. The real games begin next week.

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FANTASY

The NFL Collapse

What has happened?

As you all know, I am a huge fan of the NFL. Football is easily the greatest spectator sport. Whether you are watching it on television, or live at the stadium. It is an amazing experience.

As a dedicated fan of a couple teams. Part of what makes football so special is the parity created by the Salary Cap, and NFL draft. Even if your team finishes last in a Season. It might only take a couple of Seasons to be back in the Playoffs if you have a smart General Manager. Some teams have suffered due to poor management, or just a poor situation that prevents them from improving. Fortunately for me my two favourite teams have always been relevant.

Generally each Season there are about four teams that lack the necessary talent to compete. This happens for a number of reasons. Some teams are in a rebuilding phase with a number of rookie Players at key positions. Some teams suffer due to injuries to key players. Some teams have issues adjusting to a new coaches scheme. Whatever it might be the reason is obvious and understood by both the fans, and the rest of the league.

This Season there are much more than the usual three or four teams that can’t cut it. In no particular order they are the New York Jets, Cincinnati Bengals, Miami Dolphins, Cleveland Browns, Washington Redskins, Denver Broncos, Arizona Cardinals, Atlanta Falcons, New York Giants, and Chicago Bears. That’s right 10 teams in the NFL are basically irrelevant. Keep in mind that there are only 32 teams in the entire league. So what has happened this Season?

A few of the 10 teams were expected to be bad. The Miami Dolphins, Cincinnati Bengals, and Washington Redskins began the Season with very little expectations for success. The Arizona Cardinals started the Season with a new Head Coach, and Rookie Quarterback so they are doing about as well as can be expected. I think everyone expected Daniel Jones to take over from Eli Manning at some point, so the New York Giants are rebuilding as well. That makes 5 teams everyone can accept are uncompetitive. What about the other 5? The Cleveland Browns were supposed to finally compete. The addition of Odell Beckham Jr., to an already strong receiving corps. Nick Chubb at Running Back, and of course cocky Baker Mayfield at Quarterback. People were picking the to win their division. Not anymore! I honestly feel bad for the Browns fans. This was finally going to be their time to shine. The New York Jets looked like they might actually challenge the Patriots with the off season addition of Le’Veon Bell, and CJ Mosley. Well that’s not happening. The Denver Broncos thought they could resurrect Joe Flacco’s career. To be honest as a Broncos fan I didn’t think it was possible. Turns out I was right. The Atlanta Falcons look like a solid team on paper. Too bad for them this game isn’t played on paper, because on the field they have been horrible. The Chicago Bears were 12-4 last season, and won their division. To be fair I felt their record was a bit deceiving last season. They won a few games through incredibly strong Defensive play. The NFL has done all it can to limit Defenses. You can’t expect a team to continue to get by on great Defense alone. The Chicago Offense is garbage. Watch any of their games and I am sure you’ll agree. In today’s NFL that isn’t a recipe for success. Defensive coaches should take notice.

What can be done?

First of all bet against any of the 10 teams I mentioned above, unless they are playing against each other. Strike while the iron is hot. Another side effect of such lopsided divisions is the reduced number of games worth watching. I have never skipped watching this many NFL games before. Maybe if we all ignore the truly horrendous mismatches the NFL will take notice. Nobody wants to say it but for at least a decade the NY Jets, Miami Dolphins, and Buffalo Bills have been tanking it. Why, because they don’t want to invest in players while Belichick and Brady are in their division. It’s not coincidental that both the Buffalo Bills and New York Jets are developing their Quarterbacks of the future now. Most people would predict that Brady is maybe two years from retirement. In fact one more Superbowl could be enough for him to call it quits. When he leaves the division is there for the taking. They are finally beginning to build a team that would stand a chance. The Collective Bargaining Agreement is coming to an end. Hopefully the league will address some of the current issues, and make changes that will prevent non competitive seasons like this in the future.

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FANTASY

HONEST FANTASY FOOTBALL ADVICE

I PRACTICE WHAT I PREACH !!!

If you follow me on my various Social Media channels?

YouTube – Cobe Life

Instagram – Cobesports

Twitter – Cobeness

Then you will know what my Fantasy Football philosophies are. I use a Tier based Fantasy draft value selection process. I place additional importance on Running Backs over every other position. I prefer to draft a Quarterback in the middle Rounds, and then draft a QB with upside late. I usually wait as long as possible to draft a tier two Tight End. I stock up on Players in high powered Offenses. I will draft a Defense in a weak Division over a highly ranked Defense that’s in a tough Division.

MY EXPERT LEAGUE TEAM

The Gridiron Pros League has been running for over a decade. It is a 12 Team PPR Experts League that allows you to Keep two Players to carry over into the next Season. There is no cost to your Keeper selections so it makes sense to keep whichever two Players you believe are the most valuable. All touchdowns earn the Player 6 points whether it’s a Run, Catch, or Pass.

Quarterbacks get 1pt/30yrds, -1pt/sack, -2pt/interception. There is a 5pt bonus for throwing for over 400yrds.

Rushing is scored at 1pt/10yrds. There is a 5pt bonus for rushing for over 100yrds, and an additional 5pts if they break 200yrds.

Receiving is scored at 1pt/10yrds. There is a 5pt bonus for receiving for over 100yrds, and an additional 2pts if they break 200yrds.

With that in mind here is my current roster to begin Week 5.

QB Carson Wentz – acquired via trade for Aaron Jones I drafted in the 3rd Round (gained 2020 3rd)

QB Josh Allen – Drafted

QB Baker Mayfield – Free Agent

RB Alvin Kamara – Keeper

RB Mark Ingram – Keeper

RB Chris Carson – Drafted

RB Ronald Jones – Waivers

WR Robert Woods – Drafted

WR Alshon Jeffrey – Drafted

WR Courtland Sutton – Drafted

WR DeSean Jackson – Drafted

WR A.J. Green – Drafted

TE Evan Engram – Drafted

TE Chris Herndon – Free Agent

DST L.A. Chargers – Drafted

K Eddy Pineiro – Free Agent

THINGS OF NOTE

I told my Followers to Trade Jarvis Landry, Frank Gore, or Aaron Jones at the beginning of this week. What did I do in my single most important league? I TRADED AARON JONES! Proving once again that I practice what I preach.

Usually I wait on a Tight End, and draft one of the last Tier 2 Players available. In this particular draft I ranked Evan Engram as a tier 1 Tight End. The other 3 Tier 1 Tight Ends went off the board fast. Allowing me to Draft Engram at a considerable value so I did.

The only reason I currently have three Quarterbacks is because Baker was a Free Agent. He showed some promise in his last game. I can see what he does this Week and decide what to do with him. I had space on my bench so why not.

My Wide Receivers are thin due to injury. If DeSean Jackson, or A.J. Green aren’t back soon? I will be forced to see what’s available on waivers, or make a trade. I specifically picked up Chris Herndon in Free Agency as potential Trade bait later.

THERE ARE A NUMBER OF NOTABLE ABSENCES ON MY ROSTER. THINGS THAT OTHER ANALYSTS WILL TELL YOU THAT YOU CAN’T GO WITHOUT.

David Montgomery was being aggressively hyped by quite a few Fantasy Football analysts. I could have drafted him but I didn’t. The reason was simple. The hype made his price too high. You know who I got instead? Chris Carson in the fourth Round. David Montgomery’s ADP in 2019 was in the middle of the 3rd Round. Tell me which Running Back you would rather have goung into Week 5?

I don’t have a Top Tier Wide Receiver! The variance in Fantasy points from week to week with Wide Receivers is far greater than Running Backs. It’s not because they have a greater breakout potential either. Running Backs and Wide Receivers have about the same odds to breakout. The variance comes from the significantly lower floor Wide Receivers have the potential of hitting. Starting Running Backs always get touches. Touches are what create opportunities. Wide Receivers will have games with little to no touches. No touches means no opportunities. So I don’t see the need to draft high value Wide Receivers. Instead I load up on Wide Receivers in high powered Offenses. In this case the Philadelphia Eagles, and Los Angeles Rams. I also added number 1 Receivers on bad teams that I could draft really cheap. Those would be Courtland Sutton, and A.J. Green. Teams playing from behind have to throw the ball, and in those cases their number 1 Wide Receiver usually gets touches.

If you want honest Fantasy Football advice designed to help you actually win then…

FOLLOW ME !!!

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FANTASY

NFL WEEK 1 RECAP

So Week 1 of the 2019 NFL Season is in the books. There are a lot of questions left without definitive answers, but we do know a few things.

Here is a list of what we know.

THE AFC EAST IS A JOKE

The New England Patriots will once again continue to have the easiest path to the Superbowl. The Miami Dolphins aren’t just bad. They are definitely the worst team in the entire NFL. Watching the Baltimore Ravens steamroll them to a 59-10 win reminded me of watching the Harlem Globetrotters toy with the Washington Generals as a kid. It didn’t seem fair. The only reason the Buffalo Bills get to begin the Season with a win is because they didn’t play quite as bad as the New York Jets. There was talk of Josh Rosen working on his accuracy during the Off season. It sure didn’t look like it to me. The Jets lost 17-16 after having a 16 point lead. That should about tell you how well organized that team is. Unless the Patriots are feeling charitable that’s 6 wins in the bag. Add their win against Pittsburgh and they are already 7-0 on the Season. Sounds like a pretty easy road to the Superbowl.

PATRICK MAHOMES IS STILL MVP

Mahomes continued from right where he left off. Took him less than two minutes to throw his first TD of the Season. His top playmaker Tyreek Hill got hurt early in the game, and it didn’t even slow him down a little. Instead he helped Sammy Watkins have the best game of his career. It wouldn’t surprise me if the AFC comes down to Brady vs Mahomes again.

RUNNING BACKS AREN’T OBSOLETE

The NFL has done everything possible to make it a passing league. Dalvin Cook, Austin Ekeler, Christian McCaffery, Derrick Henry, and Chris Carson proved that a strong running game can still compete. McCaffery and Cook accounted for the majority of their team’s offense. You can make it almost impossible to hit a Quarterback, increase the catch window to four times the size it used to be, make it illegal to tackle Wide Receivers if they can’t see you, and only allow Quarterbacks to be tackled between the shoulders and thighs provided they still have the ball – aren’t in the process of passing – and you don’t land on top of them with your full weight. You still can’t deny the strength of gaining 4 yards at a time while the clock keeps running.

ROOKIE COACHES ARE CLUELESS

Kliff Kingsbury’s Air Raid Offense looked completely out of sorts. It took a Matt Patricia decision to play prevent Defense and stop pressuring Kyler Murray to let them execute. Matt Patricia isn’t a Rookie Head Coach but he might as well be. Freddie Kitchens coaching in his first Season opener looked like a total nube. Absolutely poor play calling, as well as an inability to keep his team under control resulted in two Player ejections. The majority of veteran coaches that switched teams failed to win as well.

THE FOUR TEAMS TO BEAT

There were two teams in the AFC, and two teams in the NFC that appeared to be significantly ahead of the rest. In the AFC it was the Kansas City Chiefs, and the New England Patriots. In the NFC we were treated to what could be the game of the year when we got to watch the top two teams go head to head on Monday night. The New Orleans Saints, and the Houston Texans looked amazing.

THE SECRET TO WINNING AT DAILY FANTASY FOOTBALL IS TO PLAY AS MANY PLAYERS AS YOU CAN AGAINST MIAMI.

YOU ARE WELCOME

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FANTASY

2019 FANTASY FOOTBALL STEALS

Every Season there are a few Players that get overlooked for any number of reasons. These are the Players that could prove to be the reason you make the playoffs. After completing a number of drafts it has become obvious to me who they are.

Josh Gordon

Everyone knows who Josh Gordon is. When he is playing at his top level he is one of the most talented Wide Receivers in the league. Of course there is the extensive list of off field issues which have led to multiple suspensions.

The league agreed to reinstate him in early August. This was late enough in the off season to limit the amount of chatter about his fantasy impact on the New England Patriots. Josh Gordon is the best WR1 Tom Brady has had the pleasure to throw to since Randy Moss. It took a few games for the Brady to Gordon connection to start working. Once they got their timing down though Josh Gordon became a serious weapon. With Gronk gone Brady needs a reliable endzone target and Gordon will be it. It wouldn’t surprise me if he finishes as a high WR2 in fantasy but he isn’t being drafted as such.

A.J. Green

Here is another Player slipping till later in drafts that could potentially take the right fantasy football team to the championship. A.J. Green has dealt with injuries the last couple of Seasons. He will begin this Season on the sidelines with an ankle injury. He is likely to miss the first 4 games of the Season. He is being drafted in some leagues like even when he returns he will perform like a Flex starter. When A.J. Green is on the field he is a WR1 in Fantasy Football. He is still one of the most difficult Players to defend in the NFL. If you find yourself in the Playoffs and are fortunate enough to be able to start A.J. Green in your Flex spot. Trust me when I tell you that your opponent will feel like things don’t look fair.

Aaron Jones

Will Aaron Jones gets the increased workload that everyone hopes he will get in the new Green Bay Packers Offense? If he does he could finish as a Top 5 Fantasy Football Running Back. With Ty Montgomery gone his number of touches should increase. What everyone in the Fantasy Football community seems to be afraid of is whether new coach Matt LaFleur will make him the featured back, or have him split carries with Jamaal Williams. Even if they do split carries, where Aaron Jones is going in drafts still makes him a high upside RB2 that you can get quite late. In two of the most competitive leagues I’m in I was able to draft him as my RB3. If he gives me RB2 production that’s a steal. If he becomes the featured RB and finishes the Season with RB1 numbers that’s a League winner!

Cooper Kupp

Classic case of Fantasy Football Managers being seriously afraid of Players coming back from injury. The days of torn ACLs ending careers is far gone. Modern medicine has made recovery times shorter, and allowed Players to return with the same ability they had before the injury.

Before Cooper Kupp tore his ACL he was averaging 5 catches for 70 yards and almost a touchdown per game. In PPR that’s 18pts/game. I’ll take that as my 7th Round pick where I got him in a draft last night. Brandin Cooks, and Robert Woods are going much earlier in drafts but don’t provide better upside. When I drafted Cooper Kupp last night I already had Julio Jones, and Tyler Lockett as my Starters. I picked up Dante Pettis, and Mike Williams later as backups. If Cooper picks up where he left off I’m laughing. If he doesn’t it won’t hurt me.

It’s about Value

I’ve said it again and again. Every Player is draftable for the right price. When a total bargain is staring you in the face don’t pass it up. It doesn’t matter what the so called “experts” say. When you find yourself in the League final send them a screenshot with a roster full of Players they told you to avoid.

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LET THE NFL OFFSEASON HYPE BEGIN!

IT STARTS WITH THE OBVIOUS

The Offseason hype always begins with the most valuable Free Agents, and the projected Top Quarterbacks in the NFL Draft. This year that includes Kyler Murray, Dwayne Haskins, Drew Lock, Le’Veon Bell, Earl Thomas III, and Nick Foles. Two of these Players will most likely land in predictable spots. Kyler Murray has become the obvious number 1 pick of the draft as determined by the poll of popular opinion. Nick Foles will most likely be starting for the Jacksonville Jaguars this season. It’s an obvious fit, and Jacksonville is already begun the process of clearing some Cap room. The remaining Players on the list have some uncertain landing spots. Before I get into that I’ll begin with the single most talked about Player right now …

KYLER MURRAY

Will Kyler Murray go number 1 overall in the draft? I’d say that there is about a 90% chance of that happening. The real question is which team will select him? As of the writing of this article the Arizona Cardinals have the first pick of the NFL Draft. Some NFL insiders have gone on record proclaiming that the Cardinals have already decided to take him with the first pick. There are plenty of reasons to doubt it though. The Arizona Cardinals selected Josh Rosen with the 10th pick overall in the 2018 NFL Draft. Last Season wasn’t a success but that can’t be attributed to Josh Rosen’s play. The first half of the season was a total failure because of poor decisions made by the coaching staff. It took an overhaul of the coaching staff to actually open up the playbook, and provide Josh Rosen with an opportunity to showcase his skills. The Arizona Cardinals looked like a much better team the second half of the season. Josh Rosen wasn’t considered as a reach at the 10th pick either. He was touted by most analysts as the most NFL ready Quarterback. In that same draft people expected the Cleveland Browns to select Sam Darnold with the first pick. I didn’t mind you. I had Baker Mayfield as my number 1 and the Cleveland Browns agreed with me. So just because the masses have chosen Kyler Murray as the top Quarterback, doesn’t necessarily make it so. Another reason there is reason to believe the Arizona Cardinals might pass on Kyler Murray is the plethora of other needs they currently have. Keep in mind that unless you see Josh Rosen as a total bust, then Quarterback isn’t one of their most pressing needs. If I was Steve Keim (General Manager of the Arizona Cardinals) I would be looking to trade down and acquire more picks. Theoretically the more darts you throw in the draft, the better your chances are of hitting the bullseye. Steve Keim’s most recent acquisitions haven’t been very successful. That could be why he might give up on Josh Rosen after only one season, and stake his reputation on what appears to be a safe bet in Kyler Murray. How would it look if he traded down and acquired another four picks, and missed on all of those? Trust me a lot of the decisions being made by General Managers and Coaches in the NFL are motivated by fear.

Is Kyler Murray a safe bet? What constitutes a safe bet at Quarterback in the NFL these days? I really liked Baker Mayfield last year, but did I consider him a safe bet? The answer would be no. I can tell you that I was more secure about Baker Mayfield being the first pick in the NFL Draft in 2018, than I am about Kyler Murray as the first pick this year. You know who entered the league as safe bets? Peyton Manning, Eli Manning, John Elway, Cam Newton, and Troy Aikman. Everyone was certain that those five Quarterbacks would make a significant impact. Obviously they were right because they have 9 Superbowl rings as Quarterbacks between them. The only one that hasn’t won a Superbowl is Cam Newton. Which brings up an important point. Cam is at his best when he can threaten opposing defenses as a runner with the ball as well as a passer. As the league has implemented additional rules to protect Quarterbacks. Those rules become moot when they are running with the ball. Cam Newton might be the most physically imposing Quarterback in the league, but he is also one of the most often injured. There have been some incredibly dynamic Running Quarterbacks, but all of them have had mostly limited success due to injury. Much has been said about Kyler Murray’s lack of size. At only 5’10” tall he has made use of his mobility to create angles to passing lanes, and buy himself extra time in the pocket. That’s fine at the college level but in the NFL it only takes one full shot from a 275 pound linebacker to significantly reduce a Quarterback’s mobility. Look what Von Miller did to Cam Newton in Superbowl 50. Cam Newton wanted the game to be over by the third quarter. Cam Newton is 6’5″ 245 pounds and he had enough. How would 5’10” 195 pound Kyler Murray handle it? Is he a safe bet? I don’t think so.

WHERE WILL LE’VEON BELL BE?

People have been asking this question since November of last year. We still aren’t any closer to figuring it out. The first obstacle to overcome is the cost of acquiring him. Le’Veon Bell is asking for 25 million dollars a year. That’s a hefty price for a Running Back. That’s a high price for a Quarterback. If you look at his numbers and judge his worth based solely on that, then yes he is worth every penny. Unfortunately there is a lot more to it. He just sat out an entire season of football. Which means he could be a problem if he ever disagrees with your Head Coach. He has had some injuries in the past, and plays in one of the most precarious positions in football. There’s no guarantee that he won’t get injured after just a few games. His numbers were excellent with the Pittsburgh Steelers. How much of that was his own ability, and how much of it was attributed to being on one of the most dynamic offenses in football?

Which teams would be the best fit for Le’Veon Bell? He would prefer to go to a contender so that really limits the possible teams. Of course he might just go wherever the money is. Lets begin with the win win scenarios. Maybe the best possible landing spot for Le’Veon Bell is the Indianapolis Colts. Andrew Luck is a Superbowl quality Quarterback. T.Y. Hilton can keep Defenses from stacking the box. The Colts Defense is better than most people give them credit for. They also have a tonne of Cap Space so they could actually afford him. Do they actually want him though? The early indications are that they don’t. A number of teams have looked into Le’Veon Bell already and the Colts aren’t one of them. The Houston Texans are an up and coming team that could benefit from acquiring Le’Veon Bell. They would probably be interested but not at the amount he’s looking for. They just don’t have the Cap Space with quite a few key Players approaching Free Agency. The Baltimore Ravens would be an interesting place for Bell to move to because of the long standing rivalry with the Pittsburgh Steelers. Ozzie Newsome isn’t in the habit of taking on high cost risky Free Agents. He generally builds teams through the draft and develops players. So that appears to be a no go as well. Washington could sign him but they have Derrius Guice coming back from injury at quite a bargain in comparison. You would assume that they would want to see what they have there first. Are you beginning to see a pattern emerge? If Le’Veon Bell wants to be the highest paid Running Back in the NFL. He will probably have to do it with a team that’s currently rebuilding.

AND SO IT BEGINS…

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The New look of Fantasy Football – Sports Fanatics Play Fantasy SF-44

How times have changed

If you have been playing Fantasy Football for the last decade then you have probably noticed a few changes.  Some of these changes can have a dramatic effect on how your Fantasy Football team performs from week to week.   Despite these changes, many Fantasy Football analysts refuse to adjust their strategies.  Well I can admit that I was resistant to change as well, and held steadfast for a couple of Seasons.  It took missing the Playoffs in my Keeper League for the first time in years to make me adjust my strategy.  The end result speaks for itself, I’m league Champion!  So what changes am I referring to?  In this article I’ll cover the three most important changes that you should be aware of.

Concussion Protocol

If you aren’t aware of how the NFL Concussion Protocol can effect the overall performance of your Fantasy Football team?   You need to pay close attention to this portion of the article.  For many years both the NFL and Players have misrepresented how often Players get concussed.  What was once considered a mild concussion that would have a Player miss a snap or two, can now cause them to miss the rest of a game.  I’ve already had this occur to key Players on my Fantasy teams in the first quarter of games.  Imagine what your chances of victory would be if your top Running Back was knocked out in the first quarter.  I remember when Players were considered tough if they got knocked out in the first half, and returned to play in the second half.  Nowadays those same Players would be considered foolhardy.  In reality those Players can no longer exist because the NFL Concussion Protocol has already removed them from the game, and quite likely the next game as well.  Something you should be aware of is that the more concussions a Player has had, the more likely that they will be susceptible to another.  Treat the brain like any other part of the human body that can sustain injury.  Some Fantasy Football Managers refuse to draft anyone that’s had an ACL injury.  I’m not one those but I do take injuries into consideration.  If two equally skilled Players are available to draft, and one of them has a history of injuries or concussions then I’ll draft the other Player.  The reality is that injuries are a part of the game.  Most injuries are manageable.  Players will play through minor injuries, and modern medicine has made recovery from major injuries relatively quick.  Concussion Protocol on the other hand is now governed by it’s own set of rules.  It’s because of this that you should be well aware.

Rookie Impact

Rookies have always had a place in Fantasy Football.  The temptation to draft a Rookie was always there, but more often than not didn’t pan out.  Every year the NFL media hype machine would latch on to a couple Rookies and have you believing that they were the second coming.  Very rarely did any of these Players reach their potential in their first Season.  Well like I said in the beginning, times have changed.   Rookies have become far more NFL ready over the last few years.  Especially positions that require more individual skill then scheme recognition.  Fantasy Football Managers shouldn’t be afraid to draft highly skilled Running Backs, or Quarterbacks.  Don’t make the mistake of underestimating the effect a top level rookie linebacker will immediately have on a Defense.  The coaching and Player development at the College level is at an all time high.  The only position that I remain wary of is Wide Receiver.  There are some complex timing routes in the NFL that can take more than a season to master.

Who’s Number 1?

I remember the days when NFL teams had a definitive number 1 Running Back, Wide Receiver, and Tight End.  Draft position was proportional to a Player’s ranking on their team’s depth chart.  Some Managers still approach their draft preparation with that archaic system in mind.  If that was you last Season then you probably missed out on Players like Adam Thielen, or Davante Adams.  If I asked 10 Fantasy Football Managers who they felt would finish with more fantasy points this Season between Diggs and Thielen, Thomas and Sanders, Ingram and Kamara, or Nelson and Cooper.  I bet no two Managers would give the same answers.  What this means to you is that Players that are second on their team’s depth chart could easily out perform top tier Players on other teams.  It’s also worth noting that having two Wide Receivers or Running Backs from the same team on your roster can make total sense.

 

Get with the times

There are a number of other things that have changed but I haven’t drafted yet so you will have to wait to find out.  If you take the three factors I’ve mentioned in this article into consideration this season you should be fine.  Good luck this Season, unless you are in a league against me of course. 😉

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2018 Fantasy Football Breakouts – Sports Fanatics play Fantasy SF-43

My Potential Breakouts

It’s July and the Fantasy Football Season is finally upon us. The usual off season shenanigans have led to a few suspensions. A few Players have announced that they are retiring. There’s always the talk about whether Tom Brady can keep up his high level of play for another year. Well I’m not interested in any of that. During the off season I’m only interested in figuring out one thing. Who are going to be the breakout players next season? Well I have selected eight players that should have the opportunity to put up some serious Fantasy Football numbers this year. I’ll begin with the Quarterback.

QUARTERBACK

Deshaun Watson
– If it wasn’t for the injury he sustained to his ACL in the first week of November last Season there’s no way he would be on this list. Deshaun Watson looked so good in the 7 games he played that I made a pretty big trade for him after week 5. He was on pace to eclipse 4000 yards and 40 touchdowns. I’ll take those numbers any day. Had he been healthy he could have finished the season with more fantasy points then Tom Brady. That’s all it will take for Deshaun Watson to have a breakout season. He just has to stay healthy. I’ll definitely be targeting him in drafts. There’s a good chance that a lot of Fantasy Football managers will be worried about picking a player coming back off a torn ACL. Well I’m not. Modern medicine has made the career ending ACL injury a thing of the past.

WIDE RECEIVERS

Josh Gordon
– I really struggled with whether I should include Josh Gordon in this list or not. In 2013 he put up amazing numbers. He had 87 receptions for 1646 yards with 9 of those being for touchdowns, and got selected to the Pro Bowl. So can a player who has demonstrated that kind of ability be considered as a potential 2018 breakout? The answer is yes. Josh Gordon finds himself in a rather unique situation after missing almost three Seasons due to suspensions for violating the NFL’s substance abuse policy multiple times. He finally returned to the field for the first time since 2014 at the end of last season. Although we didn’t get to see much of him. It was enough for me to recognize that although he’s been away from the game for awhile, his skills haven’t diminished. With an improved situation in Cleveland, and a much better Quarterback throwing him the ball. This could be the official return of Josh Gordon as a truly dominant Wide Receiver to the NFL. I would draft him as a high end number 2 with upside, or a low end number 1 if I went RB – RB to start the draft.

Will Fuller V
– You have already read how I feel about Deshaun Watson. Well I expect Will Fuller to be one of the major beneficiaries of that arm talent. Best of all there’s a very good chance that he will get overlooked by most people and fall in drafts. The main reason that might happen is because he isn’t the number 1 Wide Receiver on the Houston Texans. That honour belongs to what has to be considered one of the top 5 Wide Receivers in the league DeAndre Hopkins. Do I expect him to compete with DeAndre Hopkins for the top spot in Houston? Hell no! What I do expect to see him do is plenty of endzone celebrations. It took a few games for Will Fuller V and Deshaun Watson to get in sync last season but once they did they hooked up for 7 touchdowns in 4 games. SEVEN TOUCHDOWNS IN 4 GAMES! Sorry it just had to be said once more. That’s just ridiculous. Even if you count the first three games where their timing was off, that’s still an average of one touchdown per game. Across a full season that’s 16 touchdowns, or 96 fantasy points in standard leagues and 112 points in PPR before you calculate yardage. Sign me up for some of that. If I don’t draft Will Fuller V somewhere in the middle rounds of my draft I’ll hate myself a little. Trust me when I tell you that you had better be willing to do the same or suffer the consequences.

DeVante Parker
– Parker makes this list because for the first time in his career he should be the man in Miami. He has spent the last couple of seasons being overshadowed by one of my favourite PPR monsters Jarvis Landry. Although DeVante Parker is more of a true number 1 Wide Receiver, Landry was targeted so often in Miami that it didn’t leave much for anyone else to shine. Well Landry is in Cleveland now, and Miami appears to be ready to open up the offense a little more. The Player who should benefit the most is DeVante Parker. He could finish the season as a low end number 1, but you might be able to draft him as your number 2, or even number 3 he’s so under the radar.

Mike Williams
– I was a big Mike Williams fan in the 2017 draft, and when he got selected by the Chargers I figured he would have a good rookie season. Well a series of injuries prevented that from happening. I did see just enough to know that I was correct about his ability. Missing most of his rookie season could actually be a blessing in disguise. Wide Receiver is one of the most difficult positions to transition into the NFL with. They need to learn a whole new playbook. The catch windows are smaller. The Cornerbacks are smarter, faster, and bigger. They need to get in sync with a new quarterback. There are a lot of reasons why I generally don’t draft rookie Wide Receivers. Well Williams has had a full Season to study the playbook, and get a feel for the offense. I’m sure he’s spent a lot of time with Philip Rivers to get a sense of his timing. I just have a feeling that although Keenan Allen is Rivers’ number 1 target. It’s my belief that Williams will get a lot of targets in the endzone. Do yourself a favour and draft him.

JuJu Smith-Schuster
– This probably won’t come as much of a surprise to anyone. With a name like JuJu Smith-Schuster it’s hard to miss his highlight reel catches from last season. I’m not even sure the Pittsburgh Steelers knew what kind of a talent they had in JuJu until about midseason last year. That’s why I believe that although he had a great season last year, JuJu Smith-Schuster could have an even better one this year. His targets per game doubled in the second half of last season. Those kinds of target numbers should continue from Week 1 of this Season. I’m sure the Steelers have made some changes to their playbook to specifically target him more this season as well. It might require a bit of a reach in some drafts to get him but he might be worth it.

RUNNING BACKS

Dalvin Cook
– Dalvin Cook is another rookie who was on his way to having a great Fantasy Football Season when he got sidelined by injury. Like Deshaun Watson in suffered a torn ACL and only got to play in a few games. In those few games we got to see a Running Back that was strong through the line, elusive, and could catch out of the backfield. In the four games he played he went over 100 scrimmage yards twice while splitting time with Jerick McKinnon and Latavius Murray. Now McKinnon is gone, and although I do expect Latavius Murray to get some of the short yardage work. Dalvin Cook is sure to be the lead back in Minnesota. The addition of Kirk Cousins with his ability to throw the deep ball will only help create additional space at the line of scrimmage. I expect Dalvin Cook to have an exceptional season.

Derrick Henry
– I am a huge Derrick Henry fan. I have been since before he entered the league. He is an absolute monster of a Running Back. If you are a fan of Marshawn Lynch, then pay attention to Derrick Henry because he should be the next “beast mode” in the NFL. As a Tennessee Titan he was forced to take a back seat to DeMarco Murray. It’s only for that reason he hasn’t already established himself as a number I Running Back. This Season I expect the Tennessee Titans to finally utilize him as their lead back which will mean more touches, more opportunities, and more touchdowns. By midseason if he isn’t on your roster, you will be trying to figure out a way to trade for him. Don’t put yourself in that position. Just draft him when you have the chance.

Hopefully I’ve provided you with a little extra ammunition against the other Managers in your league.  Good luck this Season.