Categories
FANTASY Uncategorized

LET THE NFL OFFSEASON HYPE BEGIN!

IT STARTS WITH THE OBVIOUS

The Offseason hype always begins with the most valuable Free Agents, and the projected Top Quarterbacks in the NFL Draft. This year that includes Kyler Murray, Dwayne Haskins, Drew Lock, Le’Veon Bell, Earl Thomas III, and Nick Foles. Two of these Players will most likely land in predictable spots. Kyler Murray has become the obvious number 1 pick of the draft as determined by the poll of popular opinion. Nick Foles will most likely be starting for the Jacksonville Jaguars this season. It’s an obvious fit, and Jacksonville is already begun the process of clearing some Cap room. The remaining Players on the list have some uncertain landing spots. Before I get into that I’ll begin with the single most talked about Player right now …

KYLER MURRAY

Will Kyler Murray go number 1 overall in the draft? I’d say that there is about a 90% chance of that happening. The real question is which team will select him? As of the writing of this article the Arizona Cardinals have the first pick of the NFL Draft. Some NFL insiders have gone on record proclaiming that the Cardinals have already decided to take him with the first pick. There are plenty of reasons to doubt it though. The Arizona Cardinals selected Josh Rosen with the 10th pick overall in the 2018 NFL Draft. Last Season wasn’t a success but that can’t be attributed to Josh Rosen’s play. The first half of the season was a total failure because of poor decisions made by the coaching staff. It took an overhaul of the coaching staff to actually open up the playbook, and provide Josh Rosen with an opportunity to showcase his skills. The Arizona Cardinals looked like a much better team the second half of the season. Josh Rosen wasn’t considered as a reach at the 10th pick either. He was touted by most analysts as the most NFL ready Quarterback. In that same draft people expected the Cleveland Browns to select Sam Darnold with the first pick. I didn’t mind you. I had Baker Mayfield as my number 1 and the Cleveland Browns agreed with me. So just because the masses have chosen Kyler Murray as the top Quarterback, doesn’t necessarily make it so. Another reason there is reason to believe the Arizona Cardinals might pass on Kyler Murray is the plethora of other needs they currently have. Keep in mind that unless you see Josh Rosen as a total bust, then Quarterback isn’t one of their most pressing needs. If I was Steve Keim (General Manager of the Arizona Cardinals) I would be looking to trade down and acquire more picks. Theoretically the more darts you throw in the draft, the better your chances are of hitting the bullseye. Steve Keim’s most recent acquisitions haven’t been very successful. That could be why he might give up on Josh Rosen after only one season, and stake his reputation on what appears to be a safe bet in Kyler Murray. How would it look if he traded down and acquired another four picks, and missed on all of those? Trust me a lot of the decisions being made by General Managers and Coaches in the NFL are motivated by fear.

Is Kyler Murray a safe bet? What constitutes a safe bet at Quarterback in the NFL these days? I really liked Baker Mayfield last year, but did I consider him a safe bet? The answer would be no. I can tell you that I was more secure about Baker Mayfield being the first pick in the NFL Draft in 2018, than I am about Kyler Murray as the first pick this year. You know who entered the league as safe bets? Peyton Manning, Eli Manning, John Elway, Cam Newton, and Troy Aikman. Everyone was certain that those five Quarterbacks would make a significant impact. Obviously they were right because they have 9 Superbowl rings as Quarterbacks between them. The only one that hasn’t won a Superbowl is Cam Newton. Which brings up an important point. Cam is at his best when he can threaten opposing defenses as a runner with the ball as well as a passer. As the league has implemented additional rules to protect Quarterbacks. Those rules become moot when they are running with the ball. Cam Newton might be the most physically imposing Quarterback in the league, but he is also one of the most often injured. There have been some incredibly dynamic Running Quarterbacks, but all of them have had mostly limited success due to injury. Much has been said about Kyler Murray’s lack of size. At only 5’10” tall he has made use of his mobility to create angles to passing lanes, and buy himself extra time in the pocket. That’s fine at the college level but in the NFL it only takes one full shot from a 275 pound linebacker to significantly reduce a Quarterback’s mobility. Look what Von Miller did to Cam Newton in Superbowl 50. Cam Newton wanted the game to be over by the third quarter. Cam Newton is 6’5″ 245 pounds and he had enough. How would 5’10” 195 pound Kyler Murray handle it? Is he a safe bet? I don’t think so.

WHERE WILL LE’VEON BELL BE?

People have been asking this question since November of last year. We still aren’t any closer to figuring it out. The first obstacle to overcome is the cost of acquiring him. Le’Veon Bell is asking for 25 million dollars a year. That’s a hefty price for a Running Back. That’s a high price for a Quarterback. If you look at his numbers and judge his worth based solely on that, then yes he is worth every penny. Unfortunately there is a lot more to it. He just sat out an entire season of football. Which means he could be a problem if he ever disagrees with your Head Coach. He has had some injuries in the past, and plays in one of the most precarious positions in football. There’s no guarantee that he won’t get injured after just a few games. His numbers were excellent with the Pittsburgh Steelers. How much of that was his own ability, and how much of it was attributed to being on one of the most dynamic offenses in football?

Which teams would be the best fit for Le’Veon Bell? He would prefer to go to a contender so that really limits the possible teams. Of course he might just go wherever the money is. Lets begin with the win win scenarios. Maybe the best possible landing spot for Le’Veon Bell is the Indianapolis Colts. Andrew Luck is a Superbowl quality Quarterback. T.Y. Hilton can keep Defenses from stacking the box. The Colts Defense is better than most people give them credit for. They also have a tonne of Cap Space so they could actually afford him. Do they actually want him though? The early indications are that they don’t. A number of teams have looked into Le’Veon Bell already and the Colts aren’t one of them. The Houston Texans are an up and coming team that could benefit from acquiring Le’Veon Bell. They would probably be interested but not at the amount he’s looking for. They just don’t have the Cap Space with quite a few key Players approaching Free Agency. The Baltimore Ravens would be an interesting place for Bell to move to because of the long standing rivalry with the Pittsburgh Steelers. Ozzie Newsome isn’t in the habit of taking on high cost risky Free Agents. He generally builds teams through the draft and develops players. So that appears to be a no go as well. Washington could sign him but they have Derrius Guice coming back from injury at quite a bargain in comparison. You would assume that they would want to see what they have there first. Are you beginning to see a pattern emerge? If Le’Veon Bell wants to be the highest paid Running Back in the NFL. He will probably have to do it with a team that’s currently rebuilding.

AND SO IT BEGINS…

Categories
FANTASY Uncategorized

NFL Fantasy Free Agency – Sports Fanatics play Fantasy SF-39

Serious fantasy implications

(Cobe Life has recently switched to a new Subscription service.  I strongly advise current Subscribers to resubmit their follow request)

Loading

This is a huge year for Fantasy Free Agency.  Of course a lot of the attention will be on the group of Quarterbacks that are available.  I’ve already made my predictions for what might happen with them in my Quarterbacks Carousel blog entry.  In this article I’ll highlight a few of the more intriguing Free Agents that could seriously effect the Fantasy Football outlook for next Season.  There are some really intriguing possibilities that have the potential to transform franchises.

Wide Receivers

Allen Robinson & Marqise Lee – it wasn’t that long ago that the Jacksonville Jaguars duo was arguably one of the best Wide Receiver tandems in football.  Even though the Jaguars had a great Season, and even won a playoff game.  It wasn’t because of the play of their two Free Agent Wide Receivers.  Marqise Lee had a pedestrian Season of just over 700 yards and 3 touchdowns.  Allen Robinson spent the almost the entire Season on IR.  When healthy Allen Robinson is the better Wide Receiver.  He can be a true star in the NFL, and I expect the Jacksonville Jaguars to resign him.  Marqise Lee will probably find himself wearing a new jersey next Season.  Any team interested in adding a speedy Receiver with good hands could make an offer.  I wouldn’t be surprised if the New York Jets, New England Patriots, or Dallas Cowboys make a play.

Sammy Watkins – people were stunned when the Bills dealt Sammy Watkins to the L.A. Rams.  Word got out that Sammy wasn’t interested in remaining a Buffalo Bill, so only one Season away from Free Agency the Bills decided to deal him.  Sammy Watkins didn’t have the kind of Season we were used to seeing from him.  It took a while for Goff to get on the same page with the ridiculously quick Wide Receiver.  The one thing that wasn’t missing from Sammy Watkins repertoire was his big play potential as evidenced by his 8 touchdowns on only 39 receptions. That’s a touchdown every five times he catches the ball.  That’s absolutely insane!  I would expect a Season of catching balls from Goff, and an off season to get their timing on point will turn Watkins into a true number 1 Wide Receiver once again.  The L.A. Rams should sign him, and after a couple subpar Seasons they’ll get him for a deal.

Terrelle Pryor – will the real Terrelle Pryor please stand up.  After a break out Season in Cleveland in 2016.  Terrelle Pryor just couldn’t get it going in Washington.  A former quarterback Terrelle Pryor has the ability to adjust to new systems relatively quickly.  The Redskins are notorious for looking outside their own locker room when adding talent.  That makes it very unlikely that Terrelle Pryor will be a Redskin next Season.  There are industry insiders that have said the Panthers, Steelers, and Seahawks are all interested.  Between those three I see the Carolina Panthers as the best fit.

Danny Amendola – lets be honest here.  Amendola might have had his last quality Season.  He’s not getting any younger, and he has a reputation for being brittle.  In my opinion the only team that might have some genuine interest in Danny Amendola is the New England Patriots.  He will probably get a two year contract for very little money as a security blanket in case Edelman gets hurt again.  It doesn’t sound too appealing does it?  Well actually for Amendola it might be exactly what he wants.  Best case scenario he sees maybe 25% of the offensive snaps.  The Patriots win another Superbowl with him on the roster.  Due to his injury concerns, and veteran status he gets to take it easy at practice, and during training camps.  The alternative is to call it quits.  Hang up the cleats and retire.  After having one of his better Seasons i don’t think he’s ready.  I see him as a Patriot for at least one more Season.

Jordan Matthews – this one has me scratching my head.  We haven’t had much of a sample size to evaluate Jordan Matthews.  One thing is for sure.  The Revamped Bills head office was quick to clean house, and build their team.  Acquiring Jordan Matthews was one of their moves.  So it remains to be seen if they stick with their guy, or accept that he was a bust.  The good news is that if they decide to keep him.  He definitely won’t cost much.  The bad news is that there are quite a few teams looking for Wide Receiver help.  I wouldn’t be surprised if Matthews takes a few calls from some other teams.  There could be a lot of teams interested including the 49ers, Dolphins, Browns, Chiefs, and Redskins.  I believe that there’s a very good chance that he ends up in Miami.

Running Backs

Dion Lewis & Rex Burkhead – here’s the problem that everyone faces almost every Season.  Are the Patriots Running Backs any good, or are they just a product of a good system that forces defences to focus on containing Tom Brady?  Obviously last Season LeGarrette Blount proved that he was for real.  I’m willing to bet that Dion Lewis and Rex Burkhead aren’t.  I’m not saying that they aren’t good Running Backs.  I’m just saying that neither one is more than a platoon or backup player.  Which suits the Patriots just fine.  Their platoon system prevents any one Running Back on their roster from standing out.  That in turn makes resigning them relatively easy on the cheap.  So in most cases that’s what happens.  Only this year things are a little different.  A number of Patriots coaches have left for greener pastures with other franchises.  One such franchise that could use a serviceable Running Back is the Detroit Lions.  I wouldn’t be surprised if they make a move to land one of these and offer them a larger role in the offence.  I see Dion Lewis as the more versatile of the two, and could be wearing the Lions Blue and White next Season.

Carlos Hyde – a lot of people have doubts about whether or not Carlos Hyde is a true number one Running Back in the NFL.  I will go on record as saying that I don’t have any doubt.  Carlos Hyde is definitely a number one Running Back.  What people have forgotten is that until recently the quarterback situation in San Francisco has been a mess.  Hopefully for Carlos Hyde, and the San Francisco 49ers signing Jimmy Garoppolo to a long term contract has fixed that.  With a quality signal caller taking the snaps, Carlos Hyde should find a little more running room.  I expect the 49ers to sign him because having a veteran Running Back that knows the system will only Jimmy Garoppolo progress smoothly.

Le’Veon Bell – look I wasn’t even going to talk about Le’Veon Bell because it’s pretty obvious what will happen in this case.  On second thought though I realized it actually isn’t completely obvious.  There are two scenarios that could play out.  Scenario 1 is that the Pittsburgh Steelers pay him what he wants and he continues to slice his way through defences.  Scenario 2 is that the Steelers and Bell fail to reach an agreement and he holds out.  I wouldn’t be surprised if he was willing to sit out the Season.  Bell has been the most consistent Running Back during his current contract.  Unless the Steelers are willing to make him the highest paid Running Back.  There could be a serious impact on Fantasy Football next Season.

Jerick McKinnon – after Dalvin Cook went down last Season.  Jerick McKinnon finally showed some of that explosiveness many of us expected to see right out of college.  Unfortunately for him he will be relegated to being a backup running back once the Season starts.  Minnesota will be interested in paying him as one, but there will be other teams that recognized his star potential.  Possible fits are with the Cleveland Browns, Seattle Seahawks, New York Giants, Houston Texans, and Tampa Bay Buccaneers.  I would see the Houston Texans as a perfect fit.  The addition of McKinnon could really make for an explosive offence.

Tight Ends

Jimmy Graham – Jimmy Graham’s career plays out like a highlight reel and last Season was no exception.  10 touchdowns and it took a while for Jimmy to really get rolling. Jimmy Graham strikes me as a bit of a Mercenary.  He will go wherever the money takes him, but I don’t believe he’s interested in playing for a losing franchise.  The Seattle Seahawks just missed the playoffs last Season so that might just be the push Jimmy needed to look elsewhere.  Some may argue that him and Russell Wilson were really beginning to click last Season.  Well it wasn’t like he didn’t click with Drew Brees in New Orleans.  It will take a fair amount of money to keep him, and Seattle is limited with cap space.  The teams with the deepest pockets that Jimmy could be interested in are the L.A. Rams, New England Patriots, Philadelphia Eagles, and Houston Texans.  The only one of those three with a truly veteran Quarterback is of course the Patriots so I see him there.

Tyler Eifert – I’ll go on record as saying that Tyler Eifert is a total bust.  The Bengals know it, and unfortunately for Eifert so does everyone else.  The bengals won’t keep him unless it’s for peanut money.  He’s most likely to land on a team looking to start a rookie quarterback, or first year starter.  That way he can serve as a big physical target across the middle as the rookie develops.  That limits his potential landing spots to Cleveland, Houston, San Francisco, or Cincinnati.  I believe Cincinnati re-signs him for a song.

Austin Seferian-Jenkins – it took a while but Austin Seferian-Jenkins showed some signs of brilliance last season.  The New York Jets have some of the deepest pockets right now.  Although you should expect a large portion of their cap space to go to signing a marquee quarterback.  Still i expect them to have enough money left over to keep Seferian-Jenkins.  I fully expect him to be wearing Jets Green next Season.

Keep close attention!

FOLLOW ME ON TWITTER
http://twitter.com/cobeness

FOLLOW ME ON INSTAGRAM
http://instagram.com/cobesports