Observations -Matt Stafford and the LA Rams Receivers look to have an optimum situation. The Rams have the second easiest strength of schedule at both positions. Matt Stafford is a veteran signal caller with multiple 5000 yard seasons already in the books. With the season ending injury to Cam Akers. I expect Sean McVey to lean on the pass more.
-The LA Chargers have the toughest strength of schedule for Justin Herbert and his wideouts. Justin Herbert has been a popular pick in drafts just after the Top Tier of Quarterbacks come off the board. Coming off his outstanding rookie performance. Fantasy Managers are obviously expecting his success to continue. That might not be the case for the sophomore QB.
-The Broncos look like they will begin the season with a two RB platoon of Melvin Gordon III, and Javonte Williams. This has scared off a few Fantasy Managers. With the easiest strength of schedule for Running Backs. A platoon approach could still produce two 1000 yard Running Backs with plenty of TDs to go around. Don’t be afraid to draft either back as an RB3 with huge upside.
-The 49ers and the Patriots look poised to have a lot of production from their Tight Ends no matter who they have throwing the ball.
A lot of people are predicting a breakout season for Irv Smith jr. With a difficult strength of schedule for Tight Ends that might not be the case.
If you are struggling deciding who to pick when your turn approaches. Let the Strength of Schedule guide be the tie breaker whenever possible.
Covid-19 has already affected the NFL in Free Agency. Some of the top players on the market have found themselves unsigned, or accepting less money because teams are unable to perform a physical. Quite a few players have signed short 1 or 2 year contracts with this Season in jeopardy. Players that have moved to a new organization won’t have nearly as much time to practice with their teammates, and learn a new offensive or defensive system. Teams with new coaches could find themselves completely lost.
NFL Draft
We now know that the NFL will have a virtual draft beginning as scheduled on April 23rd. Whenever established systems are changed problems can occur. Especially in cases like this one where the changes are precipitated by an emergency, and forced into implementation. Does that mean more picks won’t get in, or trades will become far more difficult to complete? We will to wait for the draft to find out.
What will the NFL Draft look like? Players obviously won’t be walking out on to a virtual stage, and giving Roger Goodell a hug. We won’t see whole families celebrate together when their relatives name gets called. How many front office executives will be in each team’s war room? The draft selections for each team could ultimately be decided by the fewest number of people ever. Instead of a group of people debating about their next pick. Their might be only a couple of key executives from each organization that decides this is our guy. If they get it right then they get all the credit. What if they get it wrong? It’s hard to pass the buck when there’s no one else to blame.
Preseason
What will become of preseason? Those of you that follow my social media accounts, and this blog know I follow Golf as well. Well the PGA has decided to reschedule some events beginning in August. At least that’s the current plan. Honestly that sounds a bit optimistic to me. The Covid-19 crisis is currently out of control in the United States of America. The number of infections per day is higher there than anywhere else. Assuming that things will be under control by August is optimistic to put it mildly. Keep in mind that’s golf. A game that can be played in small groups, and quite frankly without an audience. NFL football is an entirely different animal. The NFL is first and foremost a money making machine. Preseason does make them some money, but it’s more about assessing the condition, and skill of the Players. Teams can figure that out for themselves without playing preseason games. Owners would rather not risk their highest paid stars in games that essentially mean nothing anyways. For those reasons I don’t expect to see any preseason games being played this year.
Regular Season
When will the regular season begin? Will there be a full schedule of games played? Will fans be present for the games? These are all questions that are currently impossible to answer. As the beginning of the Regular Season approaches I will update you on what is most likely to happen. For now I will continue to post NFL news, predictions, and Fantasy Football advice on my social media accounts as though there will be NFL football. Lets all hope that those future posts are relevant, and this current crisis is quickly under control.
As you all know, I am a huge fan of the NFL. Football is easily the greatest spectator sport. Whether you are watching it on television, or live at the stadium. It is an amazing experience.
As a dedicated fan of a couple teams. Part of what makes football so special is the parity created by the Salary Cap, and NFL draft. Even if your team finishes last in a Season. It might only take a couple of Seasons to be back in the Playoffs if you have a smart General Manager. Some teams have suffered due to poor management, or just a poor situation that prevents them from improving. Fortunately for me my two favourite teams have always been relevant.
Generally each Season there are about four teams that lack the necessary talent to compete. This happens for a number of reasons. Some teams are in a rebuilding phase with a number of rookie Players at key positions. Some teams suffer due to injuries to key players. Some teams have issues adjusting to a new coaches scheme. Whatever it might be the reason is obvious and understood by both the fans, and the rest of the league.
This Season there are much more than the usual three or four teams that can’t cut it. In no particular order they are the New York Jets, Cincinnati Bengals, Miami Dolphins, Cleveland Browns, Washington Redskins, Denver Broncos, Arizona Cardinals, Atlanta Falcons, New York Giants, and Chicago Bears. That’s right 10 teams in the NFL are basically irrelevant. Keep in mind that there are only 32 teams in the entire league. So what has happened this Season?
A few of the 10 teams were expected to be bad. The Miami Dolphins, Cincinnati Bengals, and Washington Redskins began the Season with very little expectations for success. The Arizona Cardinals started the Season with a new Head Coach, and Rookie Quarterback so they are doing about as well as can be expected. I think everyone expected Daniel Jones to take over from Eli Manning at some point, so the New York Giants are rebuilding as well. That makes 5 teams everyone can accept are uncompetitive. What about the other 5? The Cleveland Browns were supposed to finally compete. The addition of Odell Beckham Jr., to an already strong receiving corps. Nick Chubb at Running Back, and of course cocky Baker Mayfield at Quarterback. People were picking the to win their division. Not anymore! I honestly feel bad for the Browns fans. This was finally going to be their time to shine. The New York Jets looked like they might actually challenge the Patriots with the off season addition of Le’Veon Bell, and CJ Mosley. Well that’s not happening. The Denver Broncos thought they could resurrect Joe Flacco’s career. To be honest as a Broncos fan I didn’t think it was possible. Turns out I was right. The Atlanta Falcons look like a solid team on paper. Too bad for them this game isn’t played on paper, because on the field they have been horrible. The Chicago Bears were 12-4 last season, and won their division. To be fair I felt their record was a bit deceiving last season. They won a few games through incredibly strong Defensive play. The NFL has done all it can to limit Defenses. You can’t expect a team to continue to get by on great Defense alone. The Chicago Offense is garbage. Watch any of their games and I am sure you’ll agree. In today’s NFL that isn’t a recipe for success. Defensive coaches should take notice.
What can be done?
First of all bet against any of the 10 teams I mentioned above, unless they are playing against each other. Strike while the iron is hot. Another side effect of such lopsided divisions is the reduced number of games worth watching. I have never skipped watching this many NFL games before. Maybe if we all ignore the truly horrendous mismatches the NFL will take notice. Nobody wants to say it but for at least a decade the NY Jets, Miami Dolphins, and Buffalo Bills have been tanking it. Why, because they don’t want to invest in players while Belichick and Brady are in their division. It’s not coincidental that both the Buffalo Bills and New York Jets are developing their Quarterbacks of the future now. Most people would predict that Brady is maybe two years from retirement. In fact one more Superbowl could be enough for him to call it quits. When he leaves the division is there for the taking. They are finally beginning to build a team that would stand a chance. The Collective Bargaining Agreement is coming to an end. Hopefully the league will address some of the current issues, and make changes that will prevent non competitive seasons like this in the future.
If you follow me on my various Social Media channels?
YouTube – Cobe Life
Instagram – Cobesports
Twitter – Cobeness
Then you will know what my Fantasy Football philosophies are. I use a Tier based Fantasy draft value selection process. I place additional importance on Running Backs over every other position. I prefer to draft a Quarterback in the middle Rounds, and then draft a QB with upside late. I usually wait as long as possible to draft a tier two Tight End. I stock up on Players in high powered Offenses. I will draft a Defense in a weak Division over a highly ranked Defense that’s in a tough Division.
MY EXPERT LEAGUE TEAM
The Gridiron Pros League has been running for over a decade. It is a 12 Team PPR Experts League that allows you to Keep two Players to carry over into the next Season. There is no cost to your Keeper selections so it makes sense to keep whichever two Players you believe are the most valuable. All touchdowns earn the Player 6 points whether it’s a Run, Catch, or Pass.
Quarterbacks get 1pt/30yrds, -1pt/sack, -2pt/interception. There is a 5pt bonus for throwing for over 400yrds.
Rushing is scored at 1pt/10yrds. There is a 5pt bonus for rushing for over 100yrds, and an additional 5pts if they break 200yrds.
Receiving is scored at 1pt/10yrds. There is a 5pt bonus for receiving for over 100yrds, and an additional 2pts if they break 200yrds.
With that in mind here is my current roster to begin Week 5.
QB Carson Wentz – acquired via trade for Aaron Jones I drafted in the 3rd Round (gained 2020 3rd)
QB Josh Allen – Drafted
QB Baker Mayfield – Free Agent
RB Alvin Kamara – Keeper
RB Mark Ingram – Keeper
RB Chris Carson – Drafted
RB Ronald Jones – Waivers
WR Robert Woods – Drafted
WR Alshon Jeffrey – Drafted
WR Courtland Sutton – Drafted
WR DeSean Jackson – Drafted
WR A.J. Green – Drafted
TE Evan Engram – Drafted
TE Chris Herndon – Free Agent
DST L.A. Chargers – Drafted
K Eddy Pineiro – Free Agent
THINGS OF NOTE
I told my Followers to Trade Jarvis Landry, Frank Gore, or Aaron Jones at the beginning of this week. What did I do in my single most important league? I TRADED AARON JONES! Proving once again that I practice what I preach.
Usually I wait on a Tight End, and draft one of the last Tier 2 Players available. In this particular draft I ranked Evan Engram as a tier 1 Tight End. The other 3 Tier 1 Tight Ends went off the board fast. Allowing me to Draft Engram at a considerable value so I did.
The only reason I currently have three Quarterbacks is because Baker was a Free Agent. He showed some promise in his last game. I can see what he does this Week and decide what to do with him. I had space on my bench so why not.
My Wide Receivers are thin due to injury. If DeSean Jackson, or A.J. Green aren’t back soon? I will be forced to see what’s available on waivers, or make a trade. I specifically picked up Chris Herndon in Free Agency as potential Trade bait later.
THERE ARE A NUMBER OF NOTABLE ABSENCES ON MY ROSTER. THINGS THAT OTHER ANALYSTS WILL TELL YOU THAT YOU CAN’T GO WITHOUT.
David Montgomery was being aggressively hyped by quite a few Fantasy Football analysts. I could have drafted him but I didn’t. The reason was simple. The hype made his price too high. You know who I got instead? Chris Carson in the fourth Round. David Montgomery’s ADP in 2019 was in the middle of the 3rd Round. Tell me which Running Back you would rather have goung into Week 5?
I don’t have a Top Tier Wide Receiver! The variance in Fantasy points from week to week with Wide Receivers is far greater than Running Backs. It’s not because they have a greater breakout potential either. Running Backs and Wide Receivers have about the same odds to breakout. The variance comes from the significantly lower floor Wide Receivers have the potential of hitting. Starting Running Backs always get touches. Touches are what create opportunities. Wide Receivers will have games with little to no touches. No touches means no opportunities. So I don’t see the need to draft high value Wide Receivers. Instead I load up on Wide Receivers in high powered Offenses. In this case the Philadelphia Eagles, and Los Angeles Rams. I also added number 1 Receivers on bad teams that I could draft really cheap. Those would be Courtland Sutton, and A.J. Green. Teams playing from behind have to throw the ball, and in those cases their number 1 Wide Receiver usually gets touches.
If you want honest Fantasy Football advice designed to help you actually win then…
So Week 1 of the 2019 NFL Season is in the books. There are a lot of questions left without definitive answers, but we do know a few things.
Here is a list of what we know.
THE AFC EAST IS A JOKE
The New England Patriots will once again continue to have the easiest path to the Superbowl. The Miami Dolphins aren’t just bad. They are definitely the worst team in the entire NFL. Watching the Baltimore Ravens steamroll them to a 59-10 win reminded me of watching the Harlem Globetrotters toy with the Washington Generals as a kid. It didn’t seem fair. The only reason the Buffalo Bills get to begin the Season with a win is because they didn’t play quite as bad as the New York Jets. There was talk of Josh Rosen working on his accuracy during the Off season. It sure didn’t look like it to me. The Jets lost 17-16 after having a 16 point lead. That should about tell you how well organized that team is. Unless the Patriots are feeling charitable that’s 6 wins in the bag. Add their win against Pittsburgh and they are already 7-0 on the Season. Sounds like a pretty easy road to the Superbowl.
PATRICK MAHOMES IS STILL MVP
Mahomes continued from right where he left off. Took him less than two minutes to throw his first TD of the Season. His top playmaker Tyreek Hill got hurt early in the game, and it didn’t even slow him down a little. Instead he helped Sammy Watkins have the best game of his career. It wouldn’t surprise me if the AFC comes down to Brady vs Mahomes again.
RUNNING BACKS AREN’T OBSOLETE
The NFL has done everything possible to make it a passing league. Dalvin Cook, Austin Ekeler, Christian McCaffery, Derrick Henry, and Chris Carson proved that a strong running game can still compete. McCaffery and Cook accounted for the majority of their team’s offense. You can make it almost impossible to hit a Quarterback, increase the catch window to four times the size it used to be, make it illegal to tackle Wide Receivers if they can’t see you, and only allow Quarterbacks to be tackled between the shoulders and thighs provided they still have the ball – aren’t in the process of passing – and you don’t land on top of them with your full weight. You still can’t deny the strength of gaining 4 yards at a time while the clock keeps running.
ROOKIE COACHES ARE CLUELESS
Kliff Kingsbury’s Air Raid Offense looked completely out of sorts. It took a Matt Patricia decision to play prevent Defense and stop pressuring Kyler Murray to let them execute. Matt Patricia isn’t a Rookie Head Coach but he might as well be. Freddie Kitchens coaching in his first Season opener looked like a total nube. Absolutely poor play calling, as well as an inability to keep his team under control resulted in two Player ejections. The majority of veteran coaches that switched teams failed to win as well.
THE FOUR TEAMS TO BEAT
There were two teams in the AFC, and two teams in the NFC that appeared to be significantly ahead of the rest. In the AFC it was the Kansas City Chiefs, and the New England Patriots. In the NFC we were treated to what could be the game of the year when we got to watch the top two teams go head to head on Monday night. The New Orleans Saints, and the Houston Texans looked amazing.
THE SECRET TO WINNING AT DAILY FANTASY FOOTBALL IS TO PLAY AS MANY PLAYERS AS YOU CAN AGAINST MIAMI.
Every Season there are a few Players that get overlooked for any number of reasons. These are the Players that could prove to be the reason you make the playoffs. After completing a number of drafts it has become obvious to me who they are.
Josh Gordon
Everyone knows who Josh Gordon is. When he is playing at his top level he is one of the most talented Wide Receivers in the league. Of course there is the extensive list of off field issues which have led to multiple suspensions.
The league agreed to reinstate him in early August. This was late enough in the off season to limit the amount of chatter about his fantasy impact on the New England Patriots. Josh Gordon is the best WR1 Tom Brady has had the pleasure to throw to since Randy Moss. It took a few games for the Brady to Gordon connection to start working. Once they got their timing down though Josh Gordon became a serious weapon. With Gronk gone Brady needs a reliable endzone target and Gordon will be it. It wouldn’t surprise me if he finishes as a high WR2 in fantasy but he isn’t being drafted as such.
A.J. Green
Here is another Player slipping till later in drafts that could potentially take the right fantasy football team to the championship. A.J. Green has dealt with injuries the last couple of Seasons. He will begin this Season on the sidelines with an ankle injury. He is likely to miss the first 4 games of the Season. He is being drafted in some leagues like even when he returns he will perform like a Flex starter. When A.J. Green is on the field he is a WR1 in Fantasy Football. He is still one of the most difficult Players to defend in the NFL. If you find yourself in the Playoffs and are fortunate enough to be able to start A.J. Green in your Flex spot. Trust me when I tell you that your opponent will feel like things don’t look fair.
Aaron Jones
Will Aaron Jones gets the increased workload that everyone hopes he will get in the new Green Bay Packers Offense? If he does he could finish as a Top 5 Fantasy Football Running Back. With Ty Montgomery gone his number of touches should increase. What everyone in the Fantasy Football community seems to be afraid of is whether new coach Matt LaFleur will make him the featured back, or have him split carries with Jamaal Williams. Even if they do split carries, where Aaron Jones is going in drafts still makes him a high upside RB2 that you can get quite late. In two of the most competitive leagues I’m in I was able to draft him as my RB3. If he gives me RB2 production that’s a steal. If he becomes the featured RB and finishes the Season with RB1 numbers that’s a League winner!
Cooper Kupp
Classic case of Fantasy Football Managers being seriously afraid of Players coming back from injury. The days of torn ACLs ending careers is far gone. Modern medicine has made recovery times shorter, and allowed Players to return with the same ability they had before the injury.
Before Cooper Kupp tore his ACL he was averaging 5 catches for 70 yards and almost a touchdown per game. In PPR that’s 18pts/game. I’ll take that as my 7th Round pick where I got him in a draft last night. Brandin Cooks, and Robert Woods are going much earlier in drafts but don’t provide better upside. When I drafted Cooper Kupp last night I already had Julio Jones, and Tyler Lockett as my Starters. I picked up Dante Pettis, and Mike Williams later as backups. If Cooper picks up where he left off I’m laughing. If he doesn’t it won’t hurt me.
It’s about Value
I’ve said it again and again. Every Player is draftable for the right price. When a total bargain is staring you in the face don’t pass it up. It doesn’t matter what the so called “experts” say. When you find yourself in the League final send them a screenshot with a roster full of Players they told you to avoid.
Anyone that makes there picks based entirely upon Average Draft Position is practically guaranteed to lose. If you have played Fantasy Football for more than 1 season then you should already know that I am right. Then why is it that 90% of the “fantasy football experts” base their analysis on ADP? Then every one of you that tunes into their YouTube, Facebook, Instagram, or Website uses their findings to plan your draft around.
Last season Patrick Mahomes was the top QB but his ADP was around 100th overall. George Kittle finished the season as the number 2 TE but in most leagues he wasn’t being drafted until after the 10th round! In my most competitive league which has been running for over a decade, both Players went way before their Average Draft Position. The Managers have learned in that League that if you see something special in a Player, and you want him on your roster. You have to ignore that Player’s ADP because he could go 3 Rounds earlier easily.
If you really think about it, and look at how we arrive at Average Draft Positions. The Average Draft Position of each Player is determined by calculating where they have been drafted most often in a huge number of mock drafts. This immediately creates two problems. The first is that in every real draft there is 1 winner, and 11 losers in a 12 team league. Yet Average Draft Position is determined by all 12 participants. Obviously the majority of the selections were poor, or absolute crap. The second issue with Mock Drafts in particular is that they provide you with a ranking or grade at the end of it. That grade is based on the projections (educated guess) made by the creator of the software. Well if their educated guesses were correct you could simply win every draft by allowing your website of choice to Auto Draft for you. I think everyone knows that auto drafting rarely works out well.
What Average Draft Position has successfully done is create opportunities for savvy Managers to take advantage of Players who have been incorrectly projected by the software creators, and therefore drafted later by the legions of poor mock drafters.
Veteran Fantasy Gold
There are 4 players in this category that have the ability, situation, and opportunity to provide you with an advantage over your opponents. All 4 of them are going in the 8th Round of drafts or later, and in some cases aren’t even being drafted at all in some leagues.
Adrian Peterson
Undeniably one of the best to ever play the position, and despite his age still puts up fantasy relevant numbers. Last Season he had over 1000 rushing yards, another 200 yards through the air, and 8 total touchdowns. Those are RB2 numbers, and last season he wasn’t even drafted in most leagues. So much for ADP. Sure Derrius Guice is back, but you can’t expect Washington to just drop a full workload in his lap. Not to mention there’s no guarantee that Guice will remain healthy all season. My guess is that at worst Adrian Peterson splits carries with Guice this season. That would make him a viable flex starter, and a serviceable backup in case your roster gets diminished by injury. If Guice isn’t 100% then Adrian Peterson becomes an RB2 once again. It never hurts to have a couple of those on the roster.
Tom Brady
Brady has been going undrafted a lot this season, and that shouldn’t be the case. I’m not telling you to make him your stating QB. Draft him as a backup to begin the season, and he’s also a great spot starter against weaker teams. His numbers weren’t spectacular last season, but they weren’t bad either. Everyone keeps harping on about the loss of Gronk but I actually prefer his targets available to him this season. Edelman, N’Keal Harry, Josh Gordon, Demaryius Thomas, James White, and Sony Michel. If the majority of those players stay healthy, and out of trouble that’s ridiculous! Now given those names I know that’s a big IF. What are you really risking though if you select Brady in the late rounds of your draft. You know what the best part is? The Patriots have a history of running up the score against weaker teams. Teams like the Miami Dolphins, Buffalo Bills, and New York Jets. It’s no wonder they get to the playoffs with relative ease every single season.
Larry Fitzgerald & DeSean Jackson
I listed these 2 veterans together because they are in similar situations. Both of them are playing for a team they feel incredibly comfortable with. Both have the ability to completely take over a game when given the opportunity. Both have to adjust to an offense they weren’t in last season. The best part is that both are being overshadowed by other players on their team in drafts. Christian Kirk is being drafted way before Larry Fitzgerald in most drafts. I understand the upside with Christian Kirk but sometimes a high floor is what’s needed, and Fitzgerald gives you that. With a new QB, Offense, and Head Coach you might want to feed one of the most sure-handed receivers in history the ball. Just saying.
With Carson Wentz coming back from injury the Philadelphia Eagles will do whatever they can to keep him healthy. One such way is to keep Defenses honest. I expect a balanced attack between Run and Pass. The only way you can maintain that balance and win games is to have success at both. Last season that wasn’t the case so the Eagles addressed it in the off season. To improve their run game they brought in Jordan Howard, and drafted Miles Sanders. To prevent defenses from stacking the box they brought back DeSean Jackson. You want to limit the pressure on Wentz, and provide him with a deep target to take the top off defenses. There’s no better way than adding someone like DeSean Jackson. He will play a similar role for Wentz that Hill plays for Mahomes, and you saw how that worked out.
Opportunity is knocking
Two more players that find themselves in advantageous situations are Dede Westbrook, and Marquez Valdes-Scantling.
Dede Westbrook had a decent season in his second year with Jacksonville. He finished with 66 catches for 717 yards, and 5 touchdowns. Not bad numbers considering Blake Bortles was under center having a down season. About the only thing worse than Blake Bortles having a down season is Nathan Peterman having one. With the off season acquisition of superbowl MVP Nick Foles things are bound to improve. How much will they improve is the real question< and so far the majority of drafters out there don’t expect much. I would expect a 20% improvement at least, with far more opportunities in the red zone. It wouldn’t surprise me if he finished the season with around 900 yards and 8 touchdowns. His ceiling is significantly higher though. I’ll draft him with confidence.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling could very well be Aaron Rodgers number 2 target this season. That should be enough to peak your interest right there. He has looked unstoppable in the preseason. Granted it is the preseason but that’s a good indicator that he’s feeling completely confident entering the season. Aaron Rodgers also seems especially motivated this year. The entire NFC should be worried about that. If you can remember the break out seasons that Randall Cobb had as Aaron Rodgers number 2. Then you know what is possible for Marquez this season. 1000 yards and double digit touchdowns aren’t out of the question.
YOU CAN TRUST ADP IF YOU WANT – BUT IF YOU ARE SERIOUS ABOUT WINNING – I SUGGEST THAT YOU DON’T !!!
Adding Odell Beckham Jr. instantly makes the Cleveland Browns Receiving Duo of Beckham and Landry one of the most dangerous tandems in the league. It will allow Jarvis Landry to line up in the slot position where he is more naturally suited. I would argue that Julian Edelman and Jarvis Landry are the two best Slot Receivers in the league. Both OBJ and Landry are difficult to cover with one on one. You can’t double cover both so Baker Mayfield should find one of them open quite often.
2 – NICK FOLES
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
Jacksonville never really seemed like a legitimate threat with Blake Bortles under center. They gave us a glimpse of what was possible with just average Quarterback play in 2017. They finished the season 10 – 6, won the AFC South, beat Buffalo in the Wild Card game, then defeated Pittsburgh in the Divisional game, to finally lose to the New England Patriots in the AFC Championship game. They actually had the lead going into the fourth quarter of the AFC Championship, but Bortles choked under the pressure. You know who doesn’t choke under pressure? Superbowl MVP Nick Foles. Foles brings a lot of confidence, and a little bit of swagger to a team that could really use some. With Foles as their Quarterback I believe that the Jacksonville Jaguars will go from being a team that hopes to win, to a team that begins games expecting to win.
3 – ANTONIO BROWN
OAKLAND RAIDERS
Jon Gruden took over as the Oakland Raiders Head Coach and has systematically deconstructed the team. Gone are all of it’s Star Players except for the one he chose to keep, Quarterback Derek Carr. With three picks in the first Round of this year’s draft the Oakland Raiders look ready to rebuild. Their first move came before the draft, and that was to acquire the number 1 Wide Receiver in the league Antonio Brown. I can guarantee you that David Carr is happy. After watching Amari Cooper get traded to the Cowboys, Jared Cook get signed by the Saints, and Jordy Nelson announce his retirement. Derek Carr could use a reliable target. As great as he is Antonio Brown isn’t enough. The Raiders will have to find another quality Wide Receiver to compliment him.
4 – JUSTIN HOUSTON
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
The Indianapolis Colts were sneaky good on Defense last Season with a relative bunch of unknowns on their roster. Adding a veteran like Justin Houston is exactly what that young group of Linebackers, and Defensive Lineman need. With the kind of quick starts Andrew Luck is capable of Justin Houston will be able to do what he does best. That’s make things very uncomfortable for opposing Quarterbacks.
5 – LE’VEON BELL
NEW YORK JETS
The time is finally approaching for the return of Le’Veon Bell to the football field. For the first time in his NFL career he won’t be in a Steelers uniform. He will be wearing New York Jets Green and White. Will it prove to be a good fit? This is one of the more difficult moves to predict. How much of Le’Veon Bell’s success was his own ability, and how much was the Pittsburgh Steelers’ great Offensive line, and high powered Offense? It’s hard to stack the box when Antonio Brown is lined up against you. Who is the number one Wide Receiver on the New York Jets? I couldn’t tell you, and I’m a Fantasy Football analyst. That’s how mediocre their squad is. Can Le’Veon Bell carry this team into relevance? Honestly I hope so, but in order for him to do it they will need Offensive Line help and a solid Wide Receiver.
6 – DEE FORD
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
The 49ers spent last off season acquiring offensive weapons to provide Quarterback Jimmy Garropolo with the best chance of success. This off season has been about the defense. They added what I believe to be the best pass rusher in Free Agency in Dee Ford. With Dee Ford alongside DeForest Buckner the San Francisco 49ers have the capability or overwhelming one side of the Offensive Line, or crashing the middle. Opposing offenses had better have a solid run game, or it’s going to be open season on their Quarterbacks.
7 – CJ MOSLEY
NEW YORK JETS
Just like the Indianapolis Colts Justin Houston acquisition. The New York Jets needed a true leader on the defensive side of the field. CJ Mosley should prove to be the Leader they were looking for. His ability is unquestioned, and he should make an immediate impact. It remains to be seen if the New York Jets can finally challenge the New England Patriots, but at least it appears as though they are trying.
8 – JARED COOK
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
In case you hadn’t noticed, and I’m sure a lot of you didn’t. Jared Cook had a very impressive season at the Tight End position on the very unimpressive Oakland Raiders. The Oakland Raiders practically began the season trying to lose. Still Jared Cook was a Top 5 Tight End in Fantasy Football despite that. Imagine what he can achieve as a New Orleans Saint with Drew Brees throwing him the ball. The Saints have an impressive offense, and Sean Payton has proven throughout his career that he knows how to utilize Tight Ends. Jared Cook could have an even better Season as a New Orleans Saint. If he does, expect the Saints to once again challenge for a Superbowl.
9 – EARL THOMAS III
BALTIMORE RAVENS
Is he the best Safety in the NFL? When he is healthy, he probably is. That’s the real question here. The way Earl Thomas plays, it can be difficult to remain on the field. There’s no question that he is a perfect fit for the Baltimore Ravens Black and Blue Defense. Honestly I see Earl Thomas as a great fit anywhere. He brings a phenomenal skill set, leadership, and ball hawking ability that very few possess. Still when you play in one of the most brutal divisions in the NFL, health is always a concern. I for one hope he plays the full season.
10 – OLIVIER VERNON
CLEVELAND BROWNS
So my list began with the Cleveland Browns, and ends with another Cleveland Brown acquisition. Olivier Vernon is a merc, plain and simple. The thing about mercs is that they aren’t always a great fit. In this case I expect Olivier Vernon to fit right in. The Cleveland Browns are assembling a motley crew of talented Players who I believe will compliment each other instead of trying to outdo one another. They have the right amount of veterans, and youngsters to gel as a solid unit. Olivier Vernon was the final piece they needed on defense. The rest of the AFC should probably take notice.
The Offseason hype always begins with the most valuable Free Agents, and the projected Top Quarterbacks in the NFL Draft. This year that includes Kyler Murray, Dwayne Haskins, Drew Lock, Le’Veon Bell, Earl Thomas III, and Nick Foles. Two of these Players will most likely land in predictable spots. Kyler Murray has become the obvious number 1 pick of the draft as determined by the poll of popular opinion. Nick Foles will most likely be starting for the Jacksonville Jaguars this season. It’s an obvious fit, and Jacksonville is already begun the process of clearing some Cap room. The remaining Players on the list have some uncertain landing spots. Before I get into that I’ll begin with the single most talked about Player right now …
KYLER MURRAY
Will Kyler Murray go number 1 overall in the draft? I’d say that there is about a 90% chance of that happening. The real question is which team will select him? As of the writing of this article the Arizona Cardinals have the first pick of the NFL Draft. Some NFL insiders have gone on record proclaiming that the Cardinals have already decided to take him with the first pick. There are plenty of reasons to doubt it though. The Arizona Cardinals selected Josh Rosen with the 10th pick overall in the 2018 NFL Draft. Last Season wasn’t a success but that can’t be attributed to Josh Rosen’s play. The first half of the season was a total failure because of poor decisions made by the coaching staff. It took an overhaul of the coaching staff to actually open up the playbook, and provide Josh Rosen with an opportunity to showcase his skills. The Arizona Cardinals looked like a much better team the second half of the season. Josh Rosen wasn’t considered as a reach at the 10th pick either. He was touted by most analysts as the most NFL ready Quarterback. In that same draft people expected the Cleveland Browns to select Sam Darnold with the first pick. I didn’t mind you. I had Baker Mayfield as my number 1 and the Cleveland Browns agreed with me. So just because the masses have chosen Kyler Murray as the top Quarterback, doesn’t necessarily make it so. Another reason there is reason to believe the Arizona Cardinals might pass on Kyler Murray is the plethora of other needs they currently have. Keep in mind that unless you see Josh Rosen as a total bust, then Quarterback isn’t one of their most pressing needs. If I was Steve Keim (General Manager of the Arizona Cardinals) I would be looking to trade down and acquire more picks. Theoretically the more darts you throw in the draft, the better your chances are of hitting the bullseye. Steve Keim’s most recent acquisitions haven’t been very successful. That could be why he might give up on Josh Rosen after only one season, and stake his reputation on what appears to be a safe bet in Kyler Murray. How would it look if he traded down and acquired another four picks, and missed on all of those? Trust me a lot of the decisions being made by General Managers and Coaches in the NFL are motivated by fear.
Is Kyler Murray a safe bet? What constitutes a safe bet at Quarterback in the NFL these days? I really liked Baker Mayfield last year, but did I consider him a safe bet? The answer would be no. I can tell you that I was more secure about Baker Mayfield being the first pick in the NFL Draft in 2018, than I am about Kyler Murray as the first pick this year. You know who entered the league as safe bets? Peyton Manning, Eli Manning, John Elway, Cam Newton, and Troy Aikman. Everyone was certain that those five Quarterbacks would make a significant impact. Obviously they were right because they have 9 Superbowl rings as Quarterbacks between them. The only one that hasn’t won a Superbowl is Cam Newton. Which brings up an important point. Cam is at his best when he can threaten opposing defenses as a runner with the ball as well as a passer. As the league has implemented additional rules to protect Quarterbacks. Those rules become moot when they are running with the ball. Cam Newton might be the most physically imposing Quarterback in the league, but he is also one of the most often injured. There have been some incredibly dynamic Running Quarterbacks, but all of them have had mostly limited success due to injury. Much has been said about Kyler Murray’s lack of size. At only 5’10” tall he has made use of his mobility to create angles to passing lanes, and buy himself extra time in the pocket. That’s fine at the college level but in the NFL it only takes one full shot from a 275 pound linebacker to significantly reduce a Quarterback’s mobility. Look what Von Miller did to Cam Newton in Superbowl 50. Cam Newton wanted the game to be over by the third quarter. Cam Newton is 6’5″ 245 pounds and he had enough. How would 5’10” 195 pound Kyler Murray handle it? Is he a safe bet? I don’t think so.
WHERE WILL LE’VEON BELL BE?
People have been asking this question since November of last year. We still aren’t any closer to figuring it out. The first obstacle to overcome is the cost of acquiring him. Le’Veon Bell is asking for 25 million dollars a year. That’s a hefty price for a Running Back. That’s a high price for a Quarterback. If you look at his numbers and judge his worth based solely on that, then yes he is worth every penny. Unfortunately there is a lot more to it. He just sat out an entire season of football. Which means he could be a problem if he ever disagrees with your Head Coach. He has had some injuries in the past, and plays in one of the most precarious positions in football. There’s no guarantee that he won’t get injured after just a few games. His numbers were excellent with the Pittsburgh Steelers. How much of that was his own ability, and how much of it was attributed to being on one of the most dynamic offenses in football?
Which teams would be the best fit for Le’Veon Bell? He would prefer to go to a contender so that really limits the possible teams. Of course he might just go wherever the money is. Lets begin with the win win scenarios. Maybe the best possible landing spot for Le’Veon Bell is the Indianapolis Colts. Andrew Luck is a Superbowl quality Quarterback. T.Y. Hilton can keep Defenses from stacking the box. The Colts Defense is better than most people give them credit for. They also have a tonne of Cap Space so they could actually afford him. Do they actually want him though? The early indications are that they don’t. A number of teams have looked into Le’Veon Bell already and the Colts aren’t one of them. The Houston Texans are an up and coming team that could benefit from acquiring Le’Veon Bell. They would probably be interested but not at the amount he’s looking for. They just don’t have the Cap Space with quite a few key Players approaching Free Agency. The Baltimore Ravens would be an interesting place for Bell to move to because of the long standing rivalry with the Pittsburgh Steelers. Ozzie Newsome isn’t in the habit of taking on high cost risky Free Agents. He generally builds teams through the draft and develops players. So that appears to be a no go as well. Washington could sign him but they have Derrius Guice coming back from injury at quite a bargain in comparison. You would assume that they would want to see what they have there first. Are you beginning to see a pattern emerge? If Le’Veon Bell wants to be the highest paid Running Back in the NFL. He will probably have to do it with a team that’s currently rebuilding.
I’ve been playing Fantasy Football from the very beginning of it’s development. I always enjoyed it, but it wasn’t until the advent of Keeper Leagues that it became a true love of mine. Being a part of a league that allows you to retain a couple players from season to season provides you with a small taste of what it feels like to be a general manager in the NFL. How long do you continue to keep that Star Player that’s done so well for you year after year? When is it time to let go, and grab a young hungry player with talent looking to make a name for themselves? What if your Star Player gets hurt and misses the second half of the season? Do you trust that he will come back healthy, or do you trade him while there’s still some Managers willing to gamble? These are all questions that you will have to answer at some point if you are in a Keeper League.
Draft Pick Value
Another key aspect to Keeper Leagues that make them far more appealing to me is the ability to trade Draft Picks. Each year leading up to the Fantasy Football Season you can find loads of information on the perceived Draft Value of each Player. What you won’t find is how much each of your future Draft Picks could be worth during the Regular Season. This makes understanding how many Star Players are about to enter the NFL at each Fantasy relevant position next Season. It’s also important to know how many top level Fantasy Football Players there are in the League. To make it easier to understand why I’ll provide you with an example.
Lets assume that there will be one Star rookie Running Back, and one Star rookie Wide Receiver entering the league. Currently there are 30 Top level Fantasy Football Players in the NFL already. There are also 2 Star Players returning from injury. Now assume that you are in a 12 team league that allows you to keep 2 Players. That would mean that 24 of the Top 32 projected Stars are already spoken for. Depending on how much you trust Players returning from injury. It would only leave a possible 10 Star Players remaining. Once those Players have been selected the remaining Players available are Second level Players, and you estimate that there are at least 30 of them. This means that your 2nd Round Pick has a similar value to your 3rd, and maybe even your 4th Round Pick. It also means that the last two Picks in the first Round actually only have a 2nd or 3rd Round value to them.
Now what does this mean to a Manager in a Keeper League? Well if you have already secured a Playoff spot in this League, but 1 or 2 more wins will guarantee you a First Round Bye. It might be worth it to trade your 1rst Round Pick and a Player off your bench for a 3rd Round Pick and a Star Player. Provided you make the Final in this League your 1rst Round Pick will be one of the last two. In other words the 11th or 12th. This means that it’s actual value isn’t much better than a 3rd Round Pick anyways. If you don’t trust Players returning from injury than you could get knocked out in the Semifinals, and still feel good about your trade. It also provides you with one more option of who to keep for next Season.
Division Rivalry
It’s possible to develop rivalries in Redraft Leagues. It’s just not the same as having Divisional Rivalries in Keeper Leagues though. In a Redraft League it wouldn’t bother me to make a fair trade with a Manager that defeated me last Season. In my Keeper Leagues though I’m wary of trading a potentially dangerous Player to a Manager in my division. I’ve actually accepted worse offers from Managers playing against my Rivals in order to hopefully provide them with a win over my divisional opponent. If a Star Player on a Rival’s team gets injured. I check the waiver wire to see how many decent replacement Players are available. If there’s only 1 or 2 I’ll try to snatch them up. That way my Rival is forced to either make a trade from a position of weakness, or accept having a very weak spot on their team. No way I go to that extent in Redraft Leagues.
Bragging Rights
There’s nothing worse than joining a Redraft League when there are only 4 ridiculously obvious Fantasy Football studs and you unfortunately get the 5th Pick. Ultimately when one of the Managers who were lucky enough to get a pick in the first four wins. They can’t resist bragging about how much of a Fantasy genius they are. Well in Keeper Leagues winning requires a lot more than luck. Your draft position is determined by the Season before. You had better have made the necessary moves to ensure your next Season isn’t a losing one. That could mean trading for a fantastic young Player to fill a Keeper position for years. It could mean trading out of the first or second Round to get more middle Round Picks in order to build a team with a lot of depth. If you really want to be successful in a Keeper League, moves must be made. If that’s not your thing? By all means join a Redraft League.
