Observations -Matt Stafford and the LA Rams Receivers look to have an optimum situation. The Rams have the second easiest strength of schedule at both positions. Matt Stafford is a veteran signal caller with multiple 5000 yard seasons already in the books. With the season ending injury to Cam Akers. I expect Sean McVey to lean on the pass more.
-The LA Chargers have the toughest strength of schedule for Justin Herbert and his wideouts. Justin Herbert has been a popular pick in drafts just after the Top Tier of Quarterbacks come off the board. Coming off his outstanding rookie performance. Fantasy Managers are obviously expecting his success to continue. That might not be the case for the sophomore QB.
-The Broncos look like they will begin the season with a two RB platoon of Melvin Gordon III, and Javonte Williams. This has scared off a few Fantasy Managers. With the easiest strength of schedule for Running Backs. A platoon approach could still produce two 1000 yard Running Backs with plenty of TDs to go around. Don’t be afraid to draft either back as an RB3 with huge upside.
-The 49ers and the Patriots look poised to have a lot of production from their Tight Ends no matter who they have throwing the ball.
A lot of people are predicting a breakout season for Irv Smith jr. With a difficult strength of schedule for Tight Ends that might not be the case.
If you are struggling deciding who to pick when your turn approaches. Let the Strength of Schedule guide be the tie breaker whenever possible.
some Fantasy Football Analysts suggest you use ADP as your guide to determining Draft Value. Do yourself a favour and stop taking their advice!
there are another school of Fantasy Football Analysts that believe you should use their Top 200 ranking system. Then select your players based on the highest ranked player available and fill your roster positions. If your goal is to finish in the middle of the pack? Then by all means do that.
if you actually want to win then you need to be getting more VALUE with your draft picks than your opponents are. That’s it. It’s that simple! So how do you achieve that? Which position do you draft when? Are there specific Players you need to target?
the TIER VALUE DRAFT SYSTEM is extremely effective, and even more importantly easy. The real beauty of it is that it’s totally reactive. Essentially your opponents selections are setting you up to win your draft. The only choices you make are based upon positional preference. The system begins before the draft. You need to organize the players by their position (QB, RB, WR, TE) into Tiers. Tier 1 being the most valuable, Tier 2 the second most, Tier 3 the third, and so on. Some Positions will have more Tiers than others. Generally I include the very best Players at their position in Tier 1. Tier 2 includes Players that could score as many Fantasy points as the Tier 1 players but aren’t as certain. Tier 3 players have a high ceiling as well but come with some risk. Tier 4 and below are usually safe backups, Rookies, and total Wild Cards I might draft late. How many players are in each Tier is up to you. This season I have seen Fantasy Football Analysts have as few as 4 Top Tier Running Backs, or as many as 6. It doesn’t matter what they think. It only matters what you believe. Depending on where you pick in the first Round. That Top Tier of RBs could be important. In the TIER VALUE DRAFT SYSTEM you don’t want to be the first or even second person to draft a Tier 2 player when there are Tier 1 players available at another position. Lets say you have decided that there are 5 Tier 1 RBs in the draft. If you draft 6 then your first pick shouldn’t be an RB. Your choice should be the Player you believe will provide you with the greatest advantage at another position. Tight End is an attractive choice at this point. The Tier 1 Tight Ends scored an average of 8 points per game more than Tier 2 Tight Ends in 2020. That’s a greater advantage than QBs or WRs. Plus there are only 3 or 4 Tier 1 Tight Ends. So you would have a significant advantage over most of your league. In Round 2 you could probably still draft a Tier 2 RB. The same perceived VALUE at a lower price.
your goal is to fill your positions by paying less than your opponents, and to maximize your average points per game. In traditional PPR formats with 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, and 1 FLEX. You should rank the importance of the positions in this order. RB – TE (Tier 1 only) – WR – QB – TE ( Tier 2+)
so whenever possible you should aim to draft one of the last players available from each tier to fill out your roster. For example if there are only a few Tier 2 Running Backs left in your draft when your selection arrives. Grab one then. That way you have paid less for your Tier 2 RB than everyone who picked a Tier 2 RB ahead of you. The only time you pay more is when a higher Tier position you require to fill your roster is still available.
EXAMPLE OF TIER VALUE DRAFT SYSTEM
these are my current Quarterback Tiers for 2021.
Tier 1 Patrick Mahomes 2020 #5 Kyler Murray 2020 #2 Josh Allen 2020 #1 Dak Prescott 2020 Injury Lamar Jackson 2020 #9 *Aaron Rodgers 2020 #3
Obviously if you are able to draft one of the Tier 1 QBs for a decent value you should. Just remember that perception isn’t necessarily reality. Most people would assume that Patrick Mahomes was the Top QB last season but actually finished 5th overall in Fantasy points. Utilizing my Tier Value Draft System last Season. I drafted Kyler Murray in the 4th Round and finished with a higher scoring Fantasy Football QB than Patrick Mahomes who went in the 2nd Round of my draft. Any of the QBs in Tier 1 could finish as the best Quarterback in Fantasy Football this Season. Don’t pick favourites, pick VALUE!
It still isn’t a guarantee that Aaron Rodgers will play this Season. If you aren’t sure by the time of your Draft then avoid him.
Tier 2 (-4 points per game average) Tom Brady 2020 #7 Russell Wilson 2020 #6 Ryan Tannehill 2020 #8 Justin Herbert 2020 #8 Joe Burrow 2020 Injury *Deshaun Watson 2020 #4
If I miss out on a Tier 1 QB I make it a priority to draft a Tier 2. You should expect them to perform at a slightly lower rate than the Tier 1 Quarterbacks. Any of these QBs could potentially outperform a Tier 1 QB though, so these are great Value targets in a Draft. In most Fantasy Football drafts I usually land a Tier 2 QB as my starter. The reason for this is because the obvious Top QBs tend to go too early for my liking. Usually you are still able to draft a Tier 2 Quarterback at least 3 Rounds after the last Tier 1 Quarterback gets drafted. That means you have at least 4 Rounds of picks to make up an average of 4 points per game on the Teams that drafted a Tier 1. That could have happened in the second Round if your opponent drafted a QB in the first, and you landed a Top 10 Fantasy Running Back.
DeShaun Watson could end up sitting out in Houston, or he could get traded to a contender. Of course he has criminal charges to deal with as well. Best case scenario he ends up in Denver and is a total steal as a Tier 2 QB. Worst case scenario he doesn’t play at all.
Tier 3 (QBs with upside) Matt Ryan Matthew Stafford Daniel Jones Ryan Fitzpatrick Jameis Winston
Tier 3 has a number of Quarterbacks that could breakout in 2021. If you are a gambler, and lets be honest. If you love Fantasy Football you probably are. Then Tier 3 QBs are very tempting draft targets. They can be drafted relatively late in drafts after you have stocked up on quality RBs, WRs, and a Top Tier TE. I used to have a system I called the Dallas Clark Draft. Dallas Clark was the Travis Kelce equivalent back in the day. If I didn’t have a Top 5 pick in the draft. My first Round target was always Dallas Clark. Then I would draft best player available RB or WR until all of the Tier 1 and Tier 2 QBs were gone. Then I would target whichever Tier 3 QB was in the most favourable position. My team had an advantage at TE against my league, plus it was practically injury proof at RB and WR. In this group the NFC East QBs are the most interesting to me. It’s a weak division, and both QBs have great new targets to throw to.
Tier 4 (wildcards and safe floors) Trevor Lawrence Justin Fields Zach Wilson Derek Carr Ben Roethlisberger Baker Mayfield Tua Tagovailoa
If you have drafted a Tier 4 QB as your starter you might be in trouble. That doesn’t mean you should avoid them entirely though. I am a strong believer in drafting a backup QB. A lot of Fantasy Football analysts would disagree with me but they’re wrong. First of all there’s always a serious QB injury early in the season. Having a backup QB like Roethlisberger or Carr provides piece of mind. Even if your QB goes unscathed. Limiting what’s available off the waiver wire is strategic as well. You also won’t have to scramble during your Starter’s bye week. I have also spot started my Backup against really weak defenses to good effect. If you are really lucky your backup becomes your starter. That happened on quite a few winning teams in Lamar Jackson’s MVP season.
RECENT QUARTERBACK MOCK DRAFT POSITION AVERAGE FROM FANTASY FOOTBALL CALCULATOR WEBSITE
QB1 – Patrick Mahomes 22nd pick QB2 – Josh Allen 37th pick QB3 – Kyler Murray 44th pick QB4 – Lamar Jackson 51rst pick QB5 – Dak Prescott 58th pick QB6 – Justin Herbert 63rd pick QB7 – Aaron Rodgers 66th pick QB8 – Russell Wilson 70th pick QB9 – Tom Brady 79th pick QB10 – Matthew Stafford 88th pick QB11 – Jalen Hurts 97th pick QB12 – Ryan Tannehill 100th pick QB13 – Joe Burrow 107th pick QB14 – Matt Ryan 124th pick QB15 – Trevor Lawrence 128th pick QB16 – Deshaun Watson 130th pick QB17 – Baker Mayfield 140th pick QB20 – Ben Roethlisberger 169th pick QB21 – Justin Fields 179th pick QB22 – Ryan Fitzpatrick 191rst pick QB23 – Derek Carr 192nd pick QB25 – Tua Tagovailoa 198th pick QB26 – Jameis Winston 207th pick
personally I play in 12 team leagues with 15 or 16 Round drafts. So even in a 16 Round draft a number of the QBs I listed in my Tiers wouldn’t get drafted.
now examining the Tier 1 QBs from my list. The most expensive Quarterback this season is once again Patrick Mahomes. In a 12 Team league he is going at the end of the second Round. The best buys in Tier 1 are Dak Prescott and Lamar Jackson going in the fifth Round. I am ignoring Aaron Rodgers for now because of his uncertain situation. How much better would Patrick Mahomes need to be to justify picking him 3 Rounds earlier? Chances are he won’t perform significantly better enough. Using the Tier Value Draft System there’s a good chance that any Team that drafted in Round five had a chance at a Tier 1 QB. IT PAYS TO WAIT!
Always be aware of which teams picking ahead of you have filled roster positions. If the teams picking ahead of you have already drafted a QB then you should be good to land the next QB on your list.
looking at the Tier 2 Quarterbacks, Herbert went in the early 6th Round. That’s a heavy price to pay for a Tier 2 QB. The fact that 2 of my Tier 1 QBs went just one Round earlier increases how valuable those picks were. Both Ryan Tannehill and Joe Burrow fell to the 8th Round. I would say that’s a competitive price for a Tier 2 QB. You gain 3 Rounds of VALUE against the cheapest Tier 1 QBs, and an enormous 6 Rounds of VALUE against the Team that selected Patrick Mahomes in the second Round! Try to imagine how much better Patrick Mahomes would have to be than Tannehill or Burrow to justify the cost? 12 points per game maybe? Is that a realistic ask?
once again considering that Tannehill and Burrow went near the beginning and end of that Round. Any of the Teams involved in those drafts had a fair shot of waiting until the rest of the Tier got picked to select them. IT PAYS TO WAIT!
MAKE YOUR TIER LISTS SCRATCH OFF EACH PLAYER AS THEY GET SELECTED WHEN THERE ARE ONLY A FEW LEFT PICK ONE! WHEN A TIER EMPTIES – PICK YOUR FAVOURITE PLAYER FROM ANOTHER POSITION YOU REQUIRE AT A HIGHER TIER! WIN YOUR DRAFT
Corbert de Ronde Fantasy Football Expert Pro Sports Podcasters
Since the modern free agency era in the NFL began back in 1993. The addition of unrestricted free agents has allowed talented “mercs” to switch teams every Season. They were either looking for a bigger pay day, or the possibility of signing with a Superbowl bound team. The 2020 off season has had it’s share off NFL stars sign with new squads.
High profile signings in the AFC
Philip Rivers – signed to a 1 year deal with the Indianapolis Colts
Stefon Diggs – acquired by the Buffalo Bills via trade with 4 years remaining on his contract
Melvin Gordon – signed with the Denver Broncos for 2 years
Brandin Cooks – acquired by the Houston Texans via trade with 4 years remaining on his contract
David Johnson – acquired by the Houston Texans via trade with 1 year remaining on his contract
Jordan Howard – signed with the Miami Dolphins for 2 years
Austin Hooper – signed with the Cleveland Browns for 4 years
Byron Jones – signed with the Miami Dolphins for 5 years
Chris Harris Jr – signed with the Los Angeles Chargers for 2 years
Kyle Van Noy – signed with the Miami Dolphins for 4 years
Shaq Lawson – signed with the Miami Dolphins for 3 years
Linval Joseph – signed with the Los Angeles Chargers for 2 years
Vic Beasley – signed with the Tennessee Titans for 1 year
Mario Addison – signed with the Buffalo Bills for 3 years
Derek Wolfe – signed with the Baltimore Ravens for 1 year
Calais Campbell – acquired by the Baltimore Ravens via trade with 1 year remaining plus a 1 year extension
WINNERS AND LOSERS OF EACH DIVISION
https://youtu.be/15k6Jbv4Dps
https://youtu.be/V2xmyXVa7cY
https://youtu.be/jYtWzJYjmCM
https://youtu.be/-69T-C4jCq8
The biggest winner
If I had to select one team in the AFC that had the most successful off season. It would have to be the Miami Dolphins. They made some of the absolute best Free Agent signings in the entire league. They had a tonne of Cap room space and spent it wisely. They have the makings of an all star Defense in place with their new acquisitions. They then followed that up by convincing the league they weren’t interested in the most dynamic player in the draft Tua Tagovailoa. Allowing them to patiently sit at their fifth pick draft position and take him there. Keeping all of that additional draft capital to spend on key positional players. The Miami Dolphins might take a Season or two to properly develop. They should be seen as a legitimate challenger to the AFC East crown.
The biggest loser
This shouldn’t come as a surprise. It ends up being a team from my winner’s division the AFC East. It’s of course the New England Patriots. The dynasty has come to an unfortunate end. Tom Brady has decided to finish his career elsewhere. Leaving the New England Patriots with a total unknown at Quarterback. Their Offense was abysmal with Brady at Quarterback last season. Try to imagine how it will be now. They have one of the oldest teams in the league by average age. To add insult to injury former star Tight End Rob Gronkowski agreed to come out of retirement. Only if the Patriots agreed to trade him to Tampa Bay so he can play with Brady. The New England Patriots didn’t make any key acquisitions in Free Agency. They also had a very uninspiring draft. Looks like they are hoping to find their Quarterback of the future next season or the season after.
So Week 1 of the 2019 NFL Season is in the books. There are a lot of questions left without definitive answers, but we do know a few things.
Here is a list of what we know.
THE AFC EAST IS A JOKE
The New England Patriots will once again continue to have the easiest path to the Superbowl. The Miami Dolphins aren’t just bad. They are definitely the worst team in the entire NFL. Watching the Baltimore Ravens steamroll them to a 59-10 win reminded me of watching the Harlem Globetrotters toy with the Washington Generals as a kid. It didn’t seem fair. The only reason the Buffalo Bills get to begin the Season with a win is because they didn’t play quite as bad as the New York Jets. There was talk of Josh Rosen working on his accuracy during the Off season. It sure didn’t look like it to me. The Jets lost 17-16 after having a 16 point lead. That should about tell you how well organized that team is. Unless the Patriots are feeling charitable that’s 6 wins in the bag. Add their win against Pittsburgh and they are already 7-0 on the Season. Sounds like a pretty easy road to the Superbowl.
PATRICK MAHOMES IS STILL MVP
Mahomes continued from right where he left off. Took him less than two minutes to throw his first TD of the Season. His top playmaker Tyreek Hill got hurt early in the game, and it didn’t even slow him down a little. Instead he helped Sammy Watkins have the best game of his career. It wouldn’t surprise me if the AFC comes down to Brady vs Mahomes again.
RUNNING BACKS AREN’T OBSOLETE
The NFL has done everything possible to make it a passing league. Dalvin Cook, Austin Ekeler, Christian McCaffery, Derrick Henry, and Chris Carson proved that a strong running game can still compete. McCaffery and Cook accounted for the majority of their team’s offense. You can make it almost impossible to hit a Quarterback, increase the catch window to four times the size it used to be, make it illegal to tackle Wide Receivers if they can’t see you, and only allow Quarterbacks to be tackled between the shoulders and thighs provided they still have the ball – aren’t in the process of passing – and you don’t land on top of them with your full weight. You still can’t deny the strength of gaining 4 yards at a time while the clock keeps running.
ROOKIE COACHES ARE CLUELESS
Kliff Kingsbury’s Air Raid Offense looked completely out of sorts. It took a Matt Patricia decision to play prevent Defense and stop pressuring Kyler Murray to let them execute. Matt Patricia isn’t a Rookie Head Coach but he might as well be. Freddie Kitchens coaching in his first Season opener looked like a total nube. Absolutely poor play calling, as well as an inability to keep his team under control resulted in two Player ejections. The majority of veteran coaches that switched teams failed to win as well.
THE FOUR TEAMS TO BEAT
There were two teams in the AFC, and two teams in the NFC that appeared to be significantly ahead of the rest. In the AFC it was the Kansas City Chiefs, and the New England Patriots. In the NFC we were treated to what could be the game of the year when we got to watch the top two teams go head to head on Monday night. The New Orleans Saints, and the Houston Texans looked amazing.
THE SECRET TO WINNING AT DAILY FANTASY FOOTBALL IS TO PLAY AS MANY PLAYERS AS YOU CAN AGAINST MIAMI.
Anyone that makes there picks based entirely upon Average Draft Position is practically guaranteed to lose. If you have played Fantasy Football for more than 1 season then you should already know that I am right. Then why is it that 90% of the “fantasy football experts” base their analysis on ADP? Then every one of you that tunes into their YouTube, Facebook, Instagram, or Website uses their findings to plan your draft around.
Last season Patrick Mahomes was the top QB but his ADP was around 100th overall. George Kittle finished the season as the number 2 TE but in most leagues he wasn’t being drafted until after the 10th round! In my most competitive league which has been running for over a decade, both Players went way before their Average Draft Position. The Managers have learned in that League that if you see something special in a Player, and you want him on your roster. You have to ignore that Player’s ADP because he could go 3 Rounds earlier easily.
If you really think about it, and look at how we arrive at Average Draft Positions. The Average Draft Position of each Player is determined by calculating where they have been drafted most often in a huge number of mock drafts. This immediately creates two problems. The first is that in every real draft there is 1 winner, and 11 losers in a 12 team league. Yet Average Draft Position is determined by all 12 participants. Obviously the majority of the selections were poor, or absolute crap. The second issue with Mock Drafts in particular is that they provide you with a ranking or grade at the end of it. That grade is based on the projections (educated guess) made by the creator of the software. Well if their educated guesses were correct you could simply win every draft by allowing your website of choice to Auto Draft for you. I think everyone knows that auto drafting rarely works out well.
What Average Draft Position has successfully done is create opportunities for savvy Managers to take advantage of Players who have been incorrectly projected by the software creators, and therefore drafted later by the legions of poor mock drafters.
Veteran Fantasy Gold
There are 4 players in this category that have the ability, situation, and opportunity to provide you with an advantage over your opponents. All 4 of them are going in the 8th Round of drafts or later, and in some cases aren’t even being drafted at all in some leagues.
Adrian Peterson
Undeniably one of the best to ever play the position, and despite his age still puts up fantasy relevant numbers. Last Season he had over 1000 rushing yards, another 200 yards through the air, and 8 total touchdowns. Those are RB2 numbers, and last season he wasn’t even drafted in most leagues. So much for ADP. Sure Derrius Guice is back, but you can’t expect Washington to just drop a full workload in his lap. Not to mention there’s no guarantee that Guice will remain healthy all season. My guess is that at worst Adrian Peterson splits carries with Guice this season. That would make him a viable flex starter, and a serviceable backup in case your roster gets diminished by injury. If Guice isn’t 100% then Adrian Peterson becomes an RB2 once again. It never hurts to have a couple of those on the roster.
Tom Brady
Brady has been going undrafted a lot this season, and that shouldn’t be the case. I’m not telling you to make him your stating QB. Draft him as a backup to begin the season, and he’s also a great spot starter against weaker teams. His numbers weren’t spectacular last season, but they weren’t bad either. Everyone keeps harping on about the loss of Gronk but I actually prefer his targets available to him this season. Edelman, N’Keal Harry, Josh Gordon, Demaryius Thomas, James White, and Sony Michel. If the majority of those players stay healthy, and out of trouble that’s ridiculous! Now given those names I know that’s a big IF. What are you really risking though if you select Brady in the late rounds of your draft. You know what the best part is? The Patriots have a history of running up the score against weaker teams. Teams like the Miami Dolphins, Buffalo Bills, and New York Jets. It’s no wonder they get to the playoffs with relative ease every single season.
Larry Fitzgerald & DeSean Jackson
I listed these 2 veterans together because they are in similar situations. Both of them are playing for a team they feel incredibly comfortable with. Both have the ability to completely take over a game when given the opportunity. Both have to adjust to an offense they weren’t in last season. The best part is that both are being overshadowed by other players on their team in drafts. Christian Kirk is being drafted way before Larry Fitzgerald in most drafts. I understand the upside with Christian Kirk but sometimes a high floor is what’s needed, and Fitzgerald gives you that. With a new QB, Offense, and Head Coach you might want to feed one of the most sure-handed receivers in history the ball. Just saying.
With Carson Wentz coming back from injury the Philadelphia Eagles will do whatever they can to keep him healthy. One such way is to keep Defenses honest. I expect a balanced attack between Run and Pass. The only way you can maintain that balance and win games is to have success at both. Last season that wasn’t the case so the Eagles addressed it in the off season. To improve their run game they brought in Jordan Howard, and drafted Miles Sanders. To prevent defenses from stacking the box they brought back DeSean Jackson. You want to limit the pressure on Wentz, and provide him with a deep target to take the top off defenses. There’s no better way than adding someone like DeSean Jackson. He will play a similar role for Wentz that Hill plays for Mahomes, and you saw how that worked out.
Opportunity is knocking
Two more players that find themselves in advantageous situations are Dede Westbrook, and Marquez Valdes-Scantling.
Dede Westbrook had a decent season in his second year with Jacksonville. He finished with 66 catches for 717 yards, and 5 touchdowns. Not bad numbers considering Blake Bortles was under center having a down season. About the only thing worse than Blake Bortles having a down season is Nathan Peterman having one. With the off season acquisition of superbowl MVP Nick Foles things are bound to improve. How much will they improve is the real question< and so far the majority of drafters out there don’t expect much. I would expect a 20% improvement at least, with far more opportunities in the red zone. It wouldn’t surprise me if he finished the season with around 900 yards and 8 touchdowns. His ceiling is significantly higher though. I’ll draft him with confidence.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling could very well be Aaron Rodgers number 2 target this season. That should be enough to peak your interest right there. He has looked unstoppable in the preseason. Granted it is the preseason but that’s a good indicator that he’s feeling completely confident entering the season. Aaron Rodgers also seems especially motivated this year. The entire NFC should be worried about that. If you can remember the break out seasons that Randall Cobb had as Aaron Rodgers number 2. Then you know what is possible for Marquez this season. 1000 yards and double digit touchdowns aren’t out of the question.
YOU CAN TRUST ADP IF YOU WANT – BUT IF YOU ARE SERIOUS ABOUT WINNING – I SUGGEST THAT YOU DON’T !!!
Adding Odell Beckham Jr. instantly makes the Cleveland Browns Receiving Duo of Beckham and Landry one of the most dangerous tandems in the league. It will allow Jarvis Landry to line up in the slot position where he is more naturally suited. I would argue that Julian Edelman and Jarvis Landry are the two best Slot Receivers in the league. Both OBJ and Landry are difficult to cover with one on one. You can’t double cover both so Baker Mayfield should find one of them open quite often.
2 – NICK FOLES
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
Jacksonville never really seemed like a legitimate threat with Blake Bortles under center. They gave us a glimpse of what was possible with just average Quarterback play in 2017. They finished the season 10 – 6, won the AFC South, beat Buffalo in the Wild Card game, then defeated Pittsburgh in the Divisional game, to finally lose to the New England Patriots in the AFC Championship game. They actually had the lead going into the fourth quarter of the AFC Championship, but Bortles choked under the pressure. You know who doesn’t choke under pressure? Superbowl MVP Nick Foles. Foles brings a lot of confidence, and a little bit of swagger to a team that could really use some. With Foles as their Quarterback I believe that the Jacksonville Jaguars will go from being a team that hopes to win, to a team that begins games expecting to win.
3 – ANTONIO BROWN
OAKLAND RAIDERS
Jon Gruden took over as the Oakland Raiders Head Coach and has systematically deconstructed the team. Gone are all of it’s Star Players except for the one he chose to keep, Quarterback Derek Carr. With three picks in the first Round of this year’s draft the Oakland Raiders look ready to rebuild. Their first move came before the draft, and that was to acquire the number 1 Wide Receiver in the league Antonio Brown. I can guarantee you that David Carr is happy. After watching Amari Cooper get traded to the Cowboys, Jared Cook get signed by the Saints, and Jordy Nelson announce his retirement. Derek Carr could use a reliable target. As great as he is Antonio Brown isn’t enough. The Raiders will have to find another quality Wide Receiver to compliment him.
4 – JUSTIN HOUSTON
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
The Indianapolis Colts were sneaky good on Defense last Season with a relative bunch of unknowns on their roster. Adding a veteran like Justin Houston is exactly what that young group of Linebackers, and Defensive Lineman need. With the kind of quick starts Andrew Luck is capable of Justin Houston will be able to do what he does best. That’s make things very uncomfortable for opposing Quarterbacks.
5 – LE’VEON BELL
NEW YORK JETS
The time is finally approaching for the return of Le’Veon Bell to the football field. For the first time in his NFL career he won’t be in a Steelers uniform. He will be wearing New York Jets Green and White. Will it prove to be a good fit? This is one of the more difficult moves to predict. How much of Le’Veon Bell’s success was his own ability, and how much was the Pittsburgh Steelers’ great Offensive line, and high powered Offense? It’s hard to stack the box when Antonio Brown is lined up against you. Who is the number one Wide Receiver on the New York Jets? I couldn’t tell you, and I’m a Fantasy Football analyst. That’s how mediocre their squad is. Can Le’Veon Bell carry this team into relevance? Honestly I hope so, but in order for him to do it they will need Offensive Line help and a solid Wide Receiver.
6 – DEE FORD
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
The 49ers spent last off season acquiring offensive weapons to provide Quarterback Jimmy Garropolo with the best chance of success. This off season has been about the defense. They added what I believe to be the best pass rusher in Free Agency in Dee Ford. With Dee Ford alongside DeForest Buckner the San Francisco 49ers have the capability or overwhelming one side of the Offensive Line, or crashing the middle. Opposing offenses had better have a solid run game, or it’s going to be open season on their Quarterbacks.
7 – CJ MOSLEY
NEW YORK JETS
Just like the Indianapolis Colts Justin Houston acquisition. The New York Jets needed a true leader on the defensive side of the field. CJ Mosley should prove to be the Leader they were looking for. His ability is unquestioned, and he should make an immediate impact. It remains to be seen if the New York Jets can finally challenge the New England Patriots, but at least it appears as though they are trying.
8 – JARED COOK
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
In case you hadn’t noticed, and I’m sure a lot of you didn’t. Jared Cook had a very impressive season at the Tight End position on the very unimpressive Oakland Raiders. The Oakland Raiders practically began the season trying to lose. Still Jared Cook was a Top 5 Tight End in Fantasy Football despite that. Imagine what he can achieve as a New Orleans Saint with Drew Brees throwing him the ball. The Saints have an impressive offense, and Sean Payton has proven throughout his career that he knows how to utilize Tight Ends. Jared Cook could have an even better Season as a New Orleans Saint. If he does, expect the Saints to once again challenge for a Superbowl.
9 – EARL THOMAS III
BALTIMORE RAVENS
Is he the best Safety in the NFL? When he is healthy, he probably is. That’s the real question here. The way Earl Thomas plays, it can be difficult to remain on the field. There’s no question that he is a perfect fit for the Baltimore Ravens Black and Blue Defense. Honestly I see Earl Thomas as a great fit anywhere. He brings a phenomenal skill set, leadership, and ball hawking ability that very few possess. Still when you play in one of the most brutal divisions in the NFL, health is always a concern. I for one hope he plays the full season.
10 – OLIVIER VERNON
CLEVELAND BROWNS
So my list began with the Cleveland Browns, and ends with another Cleveland Brown acquisition. Olivier Vernon is a merc, plain and simple. The thing about mercs is that they aren’t always a great fit. In this case I expect Olivier Vernon to fit right in. The Cleveland Browns are assembling a motley crew of talented Players who I believe will compliment each other instead of trying to outdo one another. They have the right amount of veterans, and youngsters to gel as a solid unit. Olivier Vernon was the final piece they needed on defense. The rest of the AFC should probably take notice.
I’ve been playing Fantasy Football from the very beginning of it’s development. I always enjoyed it, but it wasn’t until the advent of Keeper Leagues that it became a true love of mine. Being a part of a league that allows you to retain a couple players from season to season provides you with a small taste of what it feels like to be a general manager in the NFL. How long do you continue to keep that Star Player that’s done so well for you year after year? When is it time to let go, and grab a young hungry player with talent looking to make a name for themselves? What if your Star Player gets hurt and misses the second half of the season? Do you trust that he will come back healthy, or do you trade him while there’s still some Managers willing to gamble? These are all questions that you will have to answer at some point if you are in a Keeper League.
Draft Pick Value
Another key aspect to Keeper Leagues that make them far more appealing to me is the ability to trade Draft Picks. Each year leading up to the Fantasy Football Season you can find loads of information on the perceived Draft Value of each Player. What you won’t find is how much each of your future Draft Picks could be worth during the Regular Season. This makes understanding how many Star Players are about to enter the NFL at each Fantasy relevant position next Season. It’s also important to know how many top level Fantasy Football Players there are in the League. To make it easier to understand why I’ll provide you with an example.
Lets assume that there will be one Star rookie Running Back, and one Star rookie Wide Receiver entering the league. Currently there are 30 Top level Fantasy Football Players in the NFL already. There are also 2 Star Players returning from injury. Now assume that you are in a 12 team league that allows you to keep 2 Players. That would mean that 24 of the Top 32 projected Stars are already spoken for. Depending on how much you trust Players returning from injury. It would only leave a possible 10 Star Players remaining. Once those Players have been selected the remaining Players available are Second level Players, and you estimate that there are at least 30 of them. This means that your 2nd Round Pick has a similar value to your 3rd, and maybe even your 4th Round Pick. It also means that the last two Picks in the first Round actually only have a 2nd or 3rd Round value to them.
Now what does this mean to a Manager in a Keeper League? Well if you have already secured a Playoff spot in this League, but 1 or 2 more wins will guarantee you a First Round Bye. It might be worth it to trade your 1rst Round Pick and a Player off your bench for a 3rd Round Pick and a Star Player. Provided you make the Final in this League your 1rst Round Pick will be one of the last two. In other words the 11th or 12th. This means that it’s actual value isn’t much better than a 3rd Round Pick anyways. If you don’t trust Players returning from injury than you could get knocked out in the Semifinals, and still feel good about your trade. It also provides you with one more option of who to keep for next Season.
Division Rivalry
It’s possible to develop rivalries in Redraft Leagues. It’s just not the same as having Divisional Rivalries in Keeper Leagues though. In a Redraft League it wouldn’t bother me to make a fair trade with a Manager that defeated me last Season. In my Keeper Leagues though I’m wary of trading a potentially dangerous Player to a Manager in my division. I’ve actually accepted worse offers from Managers playing against my Rivals in order to hopefully provide them with a win over my divisional opponent. If a Star Player on a Rival’s team gets injured. I check the waiver wire to see how many decent replacement Players are available. If there’s only 1 or 2 I’ll try to snatch them up. That way my Rival is forced to either make a trade from a position of weakness, or accept having a very weak spot on their team. No way I go to that extent in Redraft Leagues.
Bragging Rights
There’s nothing worse than joining a Redraft League when there are only 4 ridiculously obvious Fantasy Football studs and you unfortunately get the 5th Pick. Ultimately when one of the Managers who were lucky enough to get a pick in the first four wins. They can’t resist bragging about how much of a Fantasy genius they are. Well in Keeper Leagues winning requires a lot more than luck. Your draft position is determined by the Season before. You had better have made the necessary moves to ensure your next Season isn’t a losing one. That could mean trading for a fantastic young Player to fill a Keeper position for years. It could mean trading out of the first or second Round to get more middle Round Picks in order to build a team with a lot of depth. If you really want to be successful in a Keeper League, moves must be made. If that’s not your thing? By all means join a Redraft League.
Every Fantasy Sports website, or Fantasy Football analyst prepares for each Season by making a list. Some like myself make many lists, but they all have the same purpose. The goal is to arrange each and every fantasy relevant Player from the most valuable to the least. Then we presume to decipher where the optimum position to draft them is. Now maybe you choose to rely on our analysis or you don’t. Most likely you take what the most popular websites decide, and then make slight adjustments due to personal bias. However you choose to make your draft board. Each Player you end up selecting has a perceived value attached to the Round you selected them in. So what happens when you are setting your line up for the week, and the Running Back you selected in the first Round is facing the Top Run Defense in the league?
That Gut Feeling
How often should we trust our Gut when it comes to Fantasy Football? To arrive at a suitable answer I’ll use both a top level Running Back from last season, and a top level Wide Receiver.
Todd Gurley – Last Season Todd Gurley finished as the Top Player in Fantasy football. In the PPR league I run he finished the Season with a little over 400 fantasy points. He averaged a little over 25 fantasy points per game. Of course that’s what he averaged. There was that game against the Seattle Seahawks Legion of Boom defense where he only gained 50 yards, lost a fumble, and didn’t score a touchdown. He finished that game with 6 points.
So obviously you need to pay close attention to what your Gut tells you right? I’ll get back to that question in a moment. First lets take a look at the Wide Receiver from last year.
Julio Jones – For the past few Seasons Julio Jones has continually been drafted as a top 3 Wide Receiver. Last season was a bit of a down year for him but he still averaged a little over 16 points per game. Of course there was that game against the Minnesota Vikings where he had top cornerback Xavier Rhodes shut him down to the tune of 2 catches for 24 yards and no touchdowns. 4.4 measly Fantasy points for the game. So once again your Gut might have been right. So obviously you should listen to your gut right!
Actually you shouldn’t
What I left out of my analysis of both Players is when they went on to have huge Fantasy games against top defenses. Sure on occasion your best Players that cost you early Round picks will have bad games. The reason you picked them so early is because more often than not they have good games. Even when they are faced off against top defenses. It helps to understand floor and ceiling probabilities as well. A top tier Wide Receiver is always going to get targeted with a few passes, and have a reasonable opportunity to receive a touchdown. The third Wide Receiver on the depth chart can play an entire game and not even get one ball thrown their way. I don’t care who is covering each receiver. The opportunity is still greater with the top tier pick.
There are exceptions
I actually had Julio Jones on my Fantasy team for a portion of last season. If you are wondering if there were any games that I chose to sit him. Well the answer would be yes. Sounds like I’m going against my own advice right. Well before you label me as a hypocrite. You need to know a little bit about my roster. I was fortunate enough to have 3 excellent Wide Receivers on my roster. In order of their value from first to last they were Antonio Brown, Julio Jones, and Jarvis Landry. I started Antonio Brown for every game. My league requires two Wide Receivers to start so sometimes I would sit Julio Jones to start Jarvis Landry I drafted 2 Rounds after him. The starting lineup also has a flex position so sometimes I started all three. The point I’m trying to make is if you have another option that’s almost as good as your primary choice in a far more favourable match up? Then choosing to follow your Gut makes total sense. Your second option will have a far safer floor, with only a slightly lower ceiling.
If you have been playing Fantasy Football for a few years you’ve probably heard of the 50/50 rule. Basically half the Players you draft won’t be on your roster by season’s end. This isn’t necessarily a fact but you can bet that your final roster will look different if you plan on remaining competitive. As an example I won my Fantasy Football league last year with three key Players on my Roster I didn’t draft. I picked up Alvin Kamara, Jerick McKinnon, and Alex Collins during the Season. On most teams in a 12 team league that Running Back trio would have been amazing. Did I mention that I had drafted Leonard Fournette in the first Round last year as well! Now you should also know that this is in a PPR Keeper League and my Keepers were Antonio Brown and Julio Jones. How could I lose? Well I did trade Julio Jones away midseason. It would be impossible to draft a team that strong. I just made the right trades and waiver wire picks when the opportunity arose.
This year’s draft has already been completed. You can see the condensed online draft with all of my selections on the Cobe Life YouTube channel.
Already my roster has gone through some significant changes. I felt pretty good about landing Jerick McKinnon with my only pick in the first two Rounds. That was until he went down with a torn ACL during San Francisco’s last practice of the preseason! I took a flyer on Martavis Bryant because Oakland gave up a third Round pick to acquire him. Well I guess Oakland is in the habit of giving away third Round picks because they cut him on final cut day. In case you haven’t already figured it out, so did I. I also drafted Dez Bryant, planning on stashing him on my Bench for up to 4 weeks with the hopes a decent team would sign him. Unfortunately with the injury to McKinnon and my best Running Back on the bench being Mark Ingram (In case you weren’t aware Ingram begins the season on a four game suspension) I was forced to abandon my plan and drop Dez so I could pick up McKinnon’s potential back up Matt Brieda. With my initial draft strategy in shambles I also decided to hedge my bets at Quarterback by replacing Martavis Bryant with Alex Smith.
So before the season has even begun I’ve already changed 3 of my players from a total of 15 on the roster. What are the odds that I end up switching four more players over the course of the season? Pretty damn good.
Safe floor vs High ceiling
There are many Fantasy Football pundits that will talk about the importance of choosing Players with a High ceiling. Now there are a number of Players with exceptionally high ceilings that are guaranteed to score you a fair amount of points every week. The more of those Players on your team the merrier. But what about the Players with High ceilings and seriously low floors? It’s great when your Flex Player gets you 15 points, but it isn’t much of a picnic when they get you 1.3 points. This is where Safe Floor Players come in. In order to understand what your mix of Players should be in your league you need to understand how many points are required to win on average each week. In my PPR Keeper League it usually takes about 125 points to have a decent chance to win each week. Your starting roster requirements are 1 Quarterback, 2 Running Backs, 2 Wide Receivers, 1 Tight End, 1 Flex (RB, WR, TE) 1 Kicker, and 1 Defence. Breaking it down by position the average amount of points you are looking for are QB-20pts, RB-15pts, WR-15pts, TE-10pts, K-7pts, DEF-8pts. So a totally average week would net you 120pts. So somebody on your roster needs to exceed their weekly average to help guarantee your victory. Of course some of your players could under perform as well. So what is the best way to prepare for the inevitable? The answer is having two thirds of your starting roster as Safe Floor Players. I would rather a Running Back or Wide Receiver that gets me 10 to 12 guaranteed points every week as my number 2 or Flex than a Player that gets me over 20 points once every four weeks, and less than 10 points the others. Just cause they have a high ceiling doesn’t mean they are Fantasy gold. The rest of your roster should be filled with High Ceiling hopefully Safe Floor Players. A great example of a Safe Floor Player is the Number two Slot Receiver on any team with a decent offense in a PPR league. They might not catch many touchdowns but they generally catch around 5 passes minimum every week for over 50 yards. A good High ceiling Player to target is the deep threat Wide Receiver or Bell cow back on a High scoring team.
Don’t Stream just Target
People preach streaming Defenses, Kickers, and even Quarterbacks. I won’t knock their choice because I’ve done it myself. It can work provided you find yourself in the right situation to do it. First of all you won’t have success streaming a particular position if two or more other Managers are streaming that position as well. You don’t want to find yourself fighting to claim Ryan Tannehill off of waivers because he happens to be playing the New York Jets. Secondly you need to temper your expectations. Just because somebody is playing in a favourable match up doesn’t necessarily mean they will finish with a favourable result. Especially if they aren’t a Top tier talent. Thirdly it’s sometimes a lot more work thsn it’s worth. While you are trying to decide which Defense to stream that week your opponent noticed that Carlos Hyde pulled a Hamstring during practice and quickly snatched Nick Chubb as a free agent. There’s enough to think about during a Fantasy Football season. Why give yourself more?
Some positions don’t matter
This is one of the most idiotic beliefs in Fantasy Football. Don’t worry about which Kicker you draft because you can always pick one up in Free Agency. That’s total horse shit! Wait until you lose because your kicker on that high scoring offense finds himself in a heavy snowfall in November and finishes with 1 point, while your opponent was laughing his way into the winners column with New Orleans Kicker playing at home inside the Superdome. Just wait on a Defense because they are too unpredictable from year to year. Another totally daft statement. You want to talk unpredictable? Lets talk about starting Running Backs! I won my league last year because a number of Top Running Backs got injured. The Dalvin Cook injury made Jerick McKinnon a marquee starter. Mark Ingram wasn’t at 100% so Alvin Kamara progressed faster than anticipated. The Top Team in my league on paper lost their considerable advantage when David Johnson injured his wrist in the first game of the season. You would think that might be enough to scrap the entire season for that team. Well she still made the Playoffs and won her division. You know how she did it? She did it by dominating on Defense. That’s right! Not only did she spend a mid Round pick on the Jacksonville Jaguars. She also picked up the Minnesota Vikings when another Manager dropped them because he was streaming Defenses. For the rest of tbe season she switched back and forth between the two Defenses depending on which one had the better match up and averaged WR2 numbers! When did you draft your WR2? I doubt if it was in the 10th Round! While everyone else in the league was getting 6 to 10 points per week from their Defense, she was getting 11 to 15. She drafted Carlos Hyde as her third Running Back because he was undoubtedly the number 1 in San Francisco (safe floor) and he was a serviceable replacement for David Johnson. So what did that all add up to? Fantasy Football victories!
Don’t listen to the “Experts”, just use common sense and you’ll do fine.
There were a number of surprises in Fantasy Football last year. Rookie Running Backs were flying off the waiver wire every week. The Quarterbacks that went late in the draft became some of tthe Top performers. Injuries to key Players happened early and often. Fantasy Football was simply fantastic last Season. So what should we expect this Season?
Plenty of Comeback Candidates
There are a few Players that missed a lot of time or even the whole Season last year that are primed to have huge Seasons this year.
Deshaun Watson – If you follow Cobe Life on YouTube, you will already know that Deshaun Watson is the highest QB on my draft board. That’s right, I’m predicting him to be the Top QB in Fantasy Football. He was already on his way to achieving that last year before he went down to injury. I expect him to come back fully healthy and well rested. Draft him with confidence.
David Johnson – David Johnson missed all but one game last Season with a wrist injury. Before that he was considered to be the number 2 Running Back in the league by my rankings. Wrist injuries generally heal well, and have very little effect on future performance. David Johnson is the Arizona Cardinals offense. I don’t expect a drop in touches. Actually after being off the field for practically a full Season, he should be raring to go. He’s my number 3 Running Back on my draft board.
Dalvin Cook – The Minnesota Vikings are a powerhouse team in a powerhouse division that’s in the powerhouse conference. Dalvin Cook has already proved that he fits their powerhouse offense quite nicely. Coming back from injury to a team that actually upgraded at Quarterback in the off-season. Dalvin Cook is sure to find a lot of running room this year. Snag him in your draft when the opportunity arises.
Julian Edelman – If you take a really good look at the New England Patriots roster you’ll notice something somewhat strange. You won’t find many star players on it. That’s what makes the return of Julian Edelman so huge. On the offensive side of the ball there are three obvious stars. Two of which (Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski) will be extremely difficult to draft unless you don’t mind reaching. That leaves the returning Edelman as the only star on the Patriots that could fall below his true draft value. I’m not even close to being a fan of the Patriots, but if Edelman falls in my draft. I’m taking him.
Rookie Breakouts
Saquon Barkley – Saquon Barkley is for real. I don’t take what I see in the preseason too seriously. What I have seen from him will definitely carry over into the regular Season. He’s elusive, has a great burst of speed through the hole, runs hard, runs fast, and has sure hands. Barring a complete New York Giants breakdown, Saquon Barkley should finish as a Top 5 Running Back. In most drafts he’s the 8th Running Back off the board. Go ahead and reach.
Royce Freeman – Nobody really knows what to expect from Denver. With Case Keenum ar Quarterback and the stacked Defense they already have, they could look a lot like last year’s Minnesota Vikings. If that’s the case Royce Freeman could be in line for a lot of fantastic opportunities. He has the potential to be one of those Rookie Running Backs that helps you reach the Fantasy playoffs. There is some risk here, but if the Broncos can get a few leads in games Freeman will have an amazing season.
Calvin Ridley – First off I should mention that I generally don’t draft rookie Wide Receivers. It takes a while to learn a new offense, than get in sync with the team’s quarterback. The calibre of cornerback they face from week to week is significantly higher. It just takes awhile for Wide Receivers to adjust. There is the odd exception though. In this case it’s in the form of a pedestrian number 2 Wide Receiver, and a number 1 Wide Receiver that demands double coverage. Calvin Ridley could serve as a decent bye week replacement or flex starter during the season. If either Sanu or Jones gets hurt then he becomes highly valued. I might draft him as insurance or trade bait when the time is right.
Wild Cards
There are a few key changes at the most important position that could flip this fantasy Season on it’s head.
Patrick Mahomes II – What will the Kansas City Chiefs offense look like in 2018? I’ll tell you what it won’t be, boring. Watching Mahomes play is like watching high school football. He seems to hold on to the ball too long for the NFL but somehow gets away with it. I’ve watched him ignore the easy dump off to his Running Back to attempt a deep throw downfield and let his Wide Receiver attempt to make a play. Alex Smith he is not! Now is that a good thing for the Fantasy Players you drafted on the Kansas City Chiefs? I really don’t know. I’ll tell you one thing. I don’t expect Kansas City to win as many games as they did last year. I wouldn’t be surprised if they didn’t make the playoffs.
Kirk Cousins – I expect Cousins to eclipse 4000 yards passing and throw for at least 30 touchdowns. In other words he will be a Top 5 Quarterback this year. His receiving corps is significantly better than who he had in Washington. He got a huge contract and will be expected to earn it. Look at the season Case Keenum had behind that offensive line. Just imagine what Cousins will do. As a result of his signing I’ll draft Vikings offensive players every chance I get.
The Countdown is on.
The first week of the season is drawing near. I hope you’ve done your research because it’s sure to be another wild and crazy Fantasy Football year.
