Tag: nfl draft

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NFL AFC WINNERS AND LOSERS IN THE 2020 OFF SEASON

OLD NAMES NEW HOMES

Since the modern free agency era in the NFL began back in 1993. The addition of unrestricted free agents has allowed talented “mercs” to switch teams every Season. They were either looking for a bigger pay day, or the possibility of signing with a Superbowl bound team. The 2020 off season has had it’s share off NFL stars sign with new squads.

High profile signings in the AFC

Philip Rivers – signed to a 1 year deal with the Indianapolis Colts

Stefon Diggs – acquired by the Buffalo Bills via trade with 4 years remaining on his contract

Melvin Gordon – signed with the Denver Broncos for 2 years

Brandin Cooks – acquired by the Houston Texans via trade with 4 years remaining on his contract

David Johnson – acquired by the Houston Texans via trade with 1 year remaining on his contract

Jordan Howard – signed with the Miami Dolphins for 2 years

Austin Hooper – signed with the Cleveland Browns for 4 years

Byron Jones – signed with the Miami Dolphins for 5 years

Chris Harris Jr – signed with the Los Angeles Chargers for 2 years

Kyle Van Noy – signed with the Miami Dolphins for 4 years

Shaq Lawson – signed with the Miami Dolphins for 3 years

Linval Joseph – signed with the Los Angeles Chargers for 2 years

Vic Beasley – signed with the Tennessee Titans for 1 year

Mario Addison – signed with the Buffalo Bills for 3 years

Derek Wolfe – signed with the Baltimore Ravens for 1 year

Calais Campbell – acquired by the Baltimore Ravens via trade with 1 year remaining plus a 1 year extension

WINNERS AND LOSERS OF EACH DIVISION

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The biggest winner

If I had to select one team in the AFC that had the most successful off season. It would have to be the Miami Dolphins. They made some of the absolute best Free Agent signings in the entire league. They had a tonne of Cap room space and spent it wisely. They have the makings of an all star Defense in place with their new acquisitions. They then followed that up by convincing the league they weren’t interested in the most dynamic player in the draft Tua Tagovailoa. Allowing them to patiently sit at their fifth pick draft position and take him there. Keeping all of that additional draft capital to spend on key positional players. The Miami Dolphins might take a Season or two to properly develop. They should be seen as a legitimate challenger to the AFC East crown.

The biggest loser

This shouldn’t come as a surprise. It ends up being a team from my winner’s division the AFC East. It’s of course the New England Patriots. The dynasty has come to an unfortunate end. Tom Brady has decided to finish his career elsewhere. Leaving the New England Patriots with a total unknown at Quarterback. Their Offense was abysmal with Brady at Quarterback last season. Try to imagine how it will be now. They have one of the oldest teams in the league by average age. To add insult to injury former star Tight End Rob Gronkowski agreed to come out of retirement. Only if the Patriots agreed to trade him to Tampa Bay so he can play with Brady. The New England Patriots didn’t make any key acquisitions in Free Agency. They also had a very uninspiring draft. Looks like they are hoping to find their Quarterback of the future next season or the season after.

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FANTASY

HOW WILL THE NFL REACT TO COVID-19?

Free Agency

Covid-19 has already affected the NFL in Free Agency. Some of the top players on the market have found themselves unsigned, or accepting less money because teams are unable to perform a physical. Quite a few players have signed short 1 or 2 year contracts with this Season in jeopardy. Players that have moved to a new organization won’t have nearly as much time to practice with their teammates, and learn a new offensive or defensive system. Teams with new coaches could find themselves completely lost.

NFL Draft

We now know that the NFL will have a virtual draft beginning as scheduled on April 23rd. Whenever established systems are changed problems can occur. Especially in cases like this one where the changes are precipitated by an emergency, and forced into implementation. Does that mean more picks won’t get in, or trades will become far more difficult to complete? We will to wait for the draft to find out.

What will the NFL Draft look like? Players obviously won’t be walking out on to a virtual stage, and giving Roger Goodell a hug. We won’t see whole families celebrate together when their relatives name gets called. How many front office executives will be in each team’s war room? The draft selections for each team could ultimately be decided by the fewest number of people ever. Instead of a group of people debating about their next pick. Their might be only a couple of key executives from each organization that decides this is our guy. If they get it right then they get all the credit. What if they get it wrong? It’s hard to pass the buck when there’s no one else to blame.

Preseason

What will become of preseason? Those of you that follow my social media accounts, and this blog know I follow Golf as well. Well the PGA has decided to reschedule some events beginning in August. At least that’s the current plan. Honestly that sounds a bit optimistic to me. The Covid-19 crisis is currently out of control in the United States of America. The number of infections per day is higher there than anywhere else. Assuming that things will be under control by August is optimistic to put it mildly. Keep in mind that’s golf. A game that can be played in small groups, and quite frankly without an audience. NFL football is an entirely different animal. The NFL is first and foremost a money making machine. Preseason does make them some money, but it’s more about assessing the condition, and skill of the Players. Teams can figure that out for themselves without playing preseason games. Owners would rather not risk their highest paid stars in games that essentially mean nothing anyways. For those reasons I don’t expect to see any preseason games being played this year.

Regular Season

When will the regular season begin? Will there be a full schedule of games played? Will fans be present for the games? These are all questions that are currently impossible to answer. As the beginning of the Regular Season approaches I will update you on what is most likely to happen. For now I will continue to post NFL news, predictions, and Fantasy Football advice on my social media accounts as though there will be NFL football. Lets all hope that those future posts are relevant, and this current crisis is quickly under control.

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LET THE NFL OFFSEASON HYPE BEGIN!

IT STARTS WITH THE OBVIOUS

The Offseason hype always begins with the most valuable Free Agents, and the projected Top Quarterbacks in the NFL Draft. This year that includes Kyler Murray, Dwayne Haskins, Drew Lock, Le’Veon Bell, Earl Thomas III, and Nick Foles. Two of these Players will most likely land in predictable spots. Kyler Murray has become the obvious number 1 pick of the draft as determined by the poll of popular opinion. Nick Foles will most likely be starting for the Jacksonville Jaguars this season. It’s an obvious fit, and Jacksonville is already begun the process of clearing some Cap room. The remaining Players on the list have some uncertain landing spots. Before I get into that I’ll begin with the single most talked about Player right now …

KYLER MURRAY

Will Kyler Murray go number 1 overall in the draft? I’d say that there is about a 90% chance of that happening. The real question is which team will select him? As of the writing of this article the Arizona Cardinals have the first pick of the NFL Draft. Some NFL insiders have gone on record proclaiming that the Cardinals have already decided to take him with the first pick. There are plenty of reasons to doubt it though. The Arizona Cardinals selected Josh Rosen with the 10th pick overall in the 2018 NFL Draft. Last Season wasn’t a success but that can’t be attributed to Josh Rosen’s play. The first half of the season was a total failure because of poor decisions made by the coaching staff. It took an overhaul of the coaching staff to actually open up the playbook, and provide Josh Rosen with an opportunity to showcase his skills. The Arizona Cardinals looked like a much better team the second half of the season. Josh Rosen wasn’t considered as a reach at the 10th pick either. He was touted by most analysts as the most NFL ready Quarterback. In that same draft people expected the Cleveland Browns to select Sam Darnold with the first pick. I didn’t mind you. I had Baker Mayfield as my number 1 and the Cleveland Browns agreed with me. So just because the masses have chosen Kyler Murray as the top Quarterback, doesn’t necessarily make it so. Another reason there is reason to believe the Arizona Cardinals might pass on Kyler Murray is the plethora of other needs they currently have. Keep in mind that unless you see Josh Rosen as a total bust, then Quarterback isn’t one of their most pressing needs. If I was Steve Keim (General Manager of the Arizona Cardinals) I would be looking to trade down and acquire more picks. Theoretically the more darts you throw in the draft, the better your chances are of hitting the bullseye. Steve Keim’s most recent acquisitions haven’t been very successful. That could be why he might give up on Josh Rosen after only one season, and stake his reputation on what appears to be a safe bet in Kyler Murray. How would it look if he traded down and acquired another four picks, and missed on all of those? Trust me a lot of the decisions being made by General Managers and Coaches in the NFL are motivated by fear.

Is Kyler Murray a safe bet? What constitutes a safe bet at Quarterback in the NFL these days? I really liked Baker Mayfield last year, but did I consider him a safe bet? The answer would be no. I can tell you that I was more secure about Baker Mayfield being the first pick in the NFL Draft in 2018, than I am about Kyler Murray as the first pick this year. You know who entered the league as safe bets? Peyton Manning, Eli Manning, John Elway, Cam Newton, and Troy Aikman. Everyone was certain that those five Quarterbacks would make a significant impact. Obviously they were right because they have 9 Superbowl rings as Quarterbacks between them. The only one that hasn’t won a Superbowl is Cam Newton. Which brings up an important point. Cam is at his best when he can threaten opposing defenses as a runner with the ball as well as a passer. As the league has implemented additional rules to protect Quarterbacks. Those rules become moot when they are running with the ball. Cam Newton might be the most physically imposing Quarterback in the league, but he is also one of the most often injured. There have been some incredibly dynamic Running Quarterbacks, but all of them have had mostly limited success due to injury. Much has been said about Kyler Murray’s lack of size. At only 5’10” tall he has made use of his mobility to create angles to passing lanes, and buy himself extra time in the pocket. That’s fine at the college level but in the NFL it only takes one full shot from a 275 pound linebacker to significantly reduce a Quarterback’s mobility. Look what Von Miller did to Cam Newton in Superbowl 50. Cam Newton wanted the game to be over by the third quarter. Cam Newton is 6’5″ 245 pounds and he had enough. How would 5’10” 195 pound Kyler Murray handle it? Is he a safe bet? I don’t think so.

WHERE WILL LE’VEON BELL BE?

People have been asking this question since November of last year. We still aren’t any closer to figuring it out. The first obstacle to overcome is the cost of acquiring him. Le’Veon Bell is asking for 25 million dollars a year. That’s a hefty price for a Running Back. That’s a high price for a Quarterback. If you look at his numbers and judge his worth based solely on that, then yes he is worth every penny. Unfortunately there is a lot more to it. He just sat out an entire season of football. Which means he could be a problem if he ever disagrees with your Head Coach. He has had some injuries in the past, and plays in one of the most precarious positions in football. There’s no guarantee that he won’t get injured after just a few games. His numbers were excellent with the Pittsburgh Steelers. How much of that was his own ability, and how much of it was attributed to being on one of the most dynamic offenses in football?

Which teams would be the best fit for Le’Veon Bell? He would prefer to go to a contender so that really limits the possible teams. Of course he might just go wherever the money is. Lets begin with the win win scenarios. Maybe the best possible landing spot for Le’Veon Bell is the Indianapolis Colts. Andrew Luck is a Superbowl quality Quarterback. T.Y. Hilton can keep Defenses from stacking the box. The Colts Defense is better than most people give them credit for. They also have a tonne of Cap Space so they could actually afford him. Do they actually want him though? The early indications are that they don’t. A number of teams have looked into Le’Veon Bell already and the Colts aren’t one of them. The Houston Texans are an up and coming team that could benefit from acquiring Le’Veon Bell. They would probably be interested but not at the amount he’s looking for. They just don’t have the Cap Space with quite a few key Players approaching Free Agency. The Baltimore Ravens would be an interesting place for Bell to move to because of the long standing rivalry with the Pittsburgh Steelers. Ozzie Newsome isn’t in the habit of taking on high cost risky Free Agents. He generally builds teams through the draft and develops players. So that appears to be a no go as well. Washington could sign him but they have Derrius Guice coming back from injury at quite a bargain in comparison. You would assume that they would want to see what they have there first. Are you beginning to see a pattern emerge? If Le’Veon Bell wants to be the highest paid Running Back in the NFL. He will probably have to do it with a team that’s currently rebuilding.

AND SO IT BEGINS…

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FANTASY

THE AFC EAST CONSPIRACY

Sure it’s a sport, but it’s also a business

So another NFL Season is in the books, and to no one’s surprise the New England Patriots have won the Superbowl… Again. Chants of them being the greatest dynasty ever, Belichick a coaching genius, and Brady as the goat can be heard in every sports bar. Seems like the second you begin to doubt their dominance, they suddenly get that much better. The truth of the matter is that the sudden performance increase has nothing to do with the Patriots themselves. It has everything to do with their competition.

Last Season the sudden increase in performance began in Week 12 after their Bye Week. The final six weeks of the Season they would face AFC East rivals 4 times. They would go on to win three of those games, and lose to the Pittsburgh Steelers, but beat the Minnesota Vikings. This would prove to be just enough to earn them the Bye going into the playoffs. If you are at all like me, you might be wondering how the New England Patriots have easily defeated their division rivals for a decade? This has always puzzled me. How can an NFL franchise be so inept at developing a team that’s competitive for ten years? A friend of mine, and I were discussing this the other day, and he had an interesting theory.

Maybe the Buffalo Bills, Miami Dolphins, and New York Jets have accepted that the cost to build a team that can challenge the Belichick/Brady combination is just too costly. Why spend the money to acquire quality free agents, or sign your star players to long lucrative contracts. If all you will get back in return is a slim chance to make it into the playoffs as a Wild Card team. Probably the most obvious attempt to have a losing Season came when the Buffalo Bills didn’t keep Tyrod Taylor as their starting Quarterback. The Player who stepped up, and practically willed his team into the Playoffs. In the end it’s possible The Buffalo Bills saw that as an unfortunate loss of Draft capital.

Remember this is just a theory

There have been other Teams, or individuals that have had to deal with this same conundrum. Imagine how F1 Drivers for Williams felt when Michael Schumacher was driving for Ferrari. How do you think Ernie Els felt when Tiger Woods was at the top of his game? Imagine being a Player for the Utah Jazz during Michael Jordan’s run? Would you have spent millions of dollars to marginally improve an individual or teams chances to defeat any of them? The answer is probably not. What’s even more difficult when it comes to the situation in the NFL AFC East, is that in order to unseat the Patriots as favourites. You would have to not only improve your own team, but expect the other teams in the Division to do so as well. It doesn’t help to split your Season series with the New England Patriots if they can just steam roll the other two teams for four wins.

So what is a Franchise Owner to do?

The answer might be to play the long game. How many more years will The Patriots have their Star Power? Will Brady play three more years? Maybe, but I honestly doubt it. What does he have left to play for? He now owns more Superbowl rings than any other Player in NFL history. He is a multiple winner of the League MVP award. He’s over 40, and although the league keeps making it safer for Quarterbacks it only takes one awkward hit to get seriously injured. One of Tom Brady’s favourite targets won’t be around much longer. If Gronkowski doesn’t call it quits this Season, he probably won’t be around for the next one. Who’s willing to bet that if Brady retires, then Belichick will call it quits right after. I’ll make that bet right now. Lets assume that all three are gone in three Seasons. If that’s the case then drafting Quarterbacks that require a bit of coaching up like say Josh Allen, and Sam Darnold seems like a great idea. While they are developing you probably won’t post too many winning Seasons, and you can build a strong group of skill Players around them through the Draft. If they don’t pan out in time, then you should have a lot of Cap space to go out and get a Playoff ready Quarterback in Free Agency.

The point is that when the time comes you’ll be ready, and you won’t have wasted too much money getting there. For fans of these three storied Franchises that can remember what it was like to have Powerhouse teams lead by the likes of Joe Namath, Dan Marino, and Jim Kelly it can’t be easy watching them lose year after year. All I can say to them is that there is light at the end of the tunnel. For the first time in a long time you can begin to see it.

OF COURSE THIS IS JUST A THEORY