Tag: NFL

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HOW WILL THE NFL REACT TO COVID-19?

Free Agency

Covid-19 has already affected the NFL in Free Agency. Some of the top players on the market have found themselves unsigned, or accepting less money because teams are unable to perform a physical. Quite a few players have signed short 1 or 2 year contracts with this Season in jeopardy. Players that have moved to a new organization won’t have nearly as much time to practice with their teammates, and learn a new offensive or defensive system. Teams with new coaches could find themselves completely lost.

NFL Draft

We now know that the NFL will have a virtual draft beginning as scheduled on April 23rd. Whenever established systems are changed problems can occur. Especially in cases like this one where the changes are precipitated by an emergency, and forced into implementation. Does that mean more picks won’t get in, or trades will become far more difficult to complete? We will to wait for the draft to find out.

What will the NFL Draft look like? Players obviously won’t be walking out on to a virtual stage, and giving Roger Goodell a hug. We won’t see whole families celebrate together when their relatives name gets called. How many front office executives will be in each team’s war room? The draft selections for each team could ultimately be decided by the fewest number of people ever. Instead of a group of people debating about their next pick. Their might be only a couple of key executives from each organization that decides this is our guy. If they get it right then they get all the credit. What if they get it wrong? It’s hard to pass the buck when there’s no one else to blame.

Preseason

What will become of preseason? Those of you that follow my social media accounts, and this blog know I follow Golf as well. Well the PGA has decided to reschedule some events beginning in August. At least that’s the current plan. Honestly that sounds a bit optimistic to me. The Covid-19 crisis is currently out of control in the United States of America. The number of infections per day is higher there than anywhere else. Assuming that things will be under control by August is optimistic to put it mildly. Keep in mind that’s golf. A game that can be played in small groups, and quite frankly without an audience. NFL football is an entirely different animal. The NFL is first and foremost a money making machine. Preseason does make them some money, but it’s more about assessing the condition, and skill of the Players. Teams can figure that out for themselves without playing preseason games. Owners would rather not risk their highest paid stars in games that essentially mean nothing anyways. For those reasons I don’t expect to see any preseason games being played this year.

Regular Season

When will the regular season begin? Will there be a full schedule of games played? Will fans be present for the games? These are all questions that are currently impossible to answer. As the beginning of the Regular Season approaches I will update you on what is most likely to happen. For now I will continue to post NFL news, predictions, and Fantasy Football advice on my social media accounts as though there will be NFL football. Lets all hope that those future posts are relevant, and this current crisis is quickly under control.

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NFL WILD CARD WEEKEND 2020

Houston Texans vs Buffalo Bills

This game required overtime to finally decide the winner. In the end the Home team Houston Texans won. I picked the Texans to win, but with Will Fuller out I knew it could be close. Without Will Fuller the Texans aren’t able to attack down field. When they are unable to stretch the field the intermediate routes get taken away by the safeties. This forced the Texans to play a very conservative short pass offense. Their running game is mediocre so play action wasn’t much of an option either. They would have to grind it out to win.

The Buffalo Bills were the lucky recipients of one of the easiest schedules in the NFL this Season. In order to finish with a 10-6 regular season record. They only had to beat 1 team with a winning record. This was the biggest factor that contributed to my pick of the Houston Texans. Their inexperience against quality opponents had me thinking that costly mistakes would be made. If the Texans play like that next week they will get thumped.

New England Patriots vs Tennessee Titans

As soon as I saw this match up I knew what would happen. The Patriots were the recipient of the absolute easiest schedule in football. They were also coming off a loss to the Miami Dolphins! Vegas still had them as the favourite which was ridiculous. I predicted that Derrick Henry was going to run all over them, and he did. The Patriots Defense was so ineffective against the run, that the Titans continued to run the ball during the 2 minute offense at the end of the first half. Vrabel even used a Belichick trick, and took multiple delay of game penalties to burn the clock. The Patriots won’t have the benefit of such an easy schedule next Season. It remains to be seen if this was Tom Brady’s last game as a New England Patriot.

New Orleans Saints vs Minnesota Vikings

The Saints were my pick to win the Superbowl so obviously I got this one wrong. This was a game decided by mistakes. It required overtime to decide the winner, but in my opinion it was over before that. Most people, myself included probably expected the Minnesota Vikings to be the team that made the big mistakes. Kirk Cousins record in big games is far from exemplary. Drew Brees on the other hand generally plays his best on a big stage. Not in this game. Drew Brees made one of the ugliest fumbles I’ve seen in quite some time. Generally speaking a Quarterback shouldn’t fumble the ball when they are fully aware of where the pressure is coming from. With the New Orleans Saints in scoring position Drew Brees fumbled the ball, and that was pretty much the game.

Seattle Seahawks vs Philadelphia Eagles

I am a huge Seahawks fan so that factored into my pick of them to win a little bit. Really though it was the injury depleted Eagles that gave me confidence. I didn’t expect Carson Wentz to get knocked out of the game at the end of the first quarter though. That pretty much spelled the end of them. Honestly if Carson Wentz had come back after half time I think the Seahawks would have lost. Josh McCown couldn’t convert two fourth down attempts. I’m certain Carson Wentz would have converted at least one. The real standout in this game was rookie DK Metcalf. He finished with 7 receptions for 160 yards, and a touchdown. Not bad for a Wide Receiver that every team passed on.

All in all it was a great Wild Card Weekend. The real games begin next week.

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FANTASY

The NFL Collapse

What has happened?

As you all know, I am a huge fan of the NFL. Football is easily the greatest spectator sport. Whether you are watching it on television, or live at the stadium. It is an amazing experience.

As a dedicated fan of a couple teams. Part of what makes football so special is the parity created by the Salary Cap, and NFL draft. Even if your team finishes last in a Season. It might only take a couple of Seasons to be back in the Playoffs if you have a smart General Manager. Some teams have suffered due to poor management, or just a poor situation that prevents them from improving. Fortunately for me my two favourite teams have always been relevant.

Generally each Season there are about four teams that lack the necessary talent to compete. This happens for a number of reasons. Some teams are in a rebuilding phase with a number of rookie Players at key positions. Some teams suffer due to injuries to key players. Some teams have issues adjusting to a new coaches scheme. Whatever it might be the reason is obvious and understood by both the fans, and the rest of the league.

This Season there are much more than the usual three or four teams that can’t cut it. In no particular order they are the New York Jets, Cincinnati Bengals, Miami Dolphins, Cleveland Browns, Washington Redskins, Denver Broncos, Arizona Cardinals, Atlanta Falcons, New York Giants, and Chicago Bears. That’s right 10 teams in the NFL are basically irrelevant. Keep in mind that there are only 32 teams in the entire league. So what has happened this Season?

A few of the 10 teams were expected to be bad. The Miami Dolphins, Cincinnati Bengals, and Washington Redskins began the Season with very little expectations for success. The Arizona Cardinals started the Season with a new Head Coach, and Rookie Quarterback so they are doing about as well as can be expected. I think everyone expected Daniel Jones to take over from Eli Manning at some point, so the New York Giants are rebuilding as well. That makes 5 teams everyone can accept are uncompetitive. What about the other 5? The Cleveland Browns were supposed to finally compete. The addition of Odell Beckham Jr., to an already strong receiving corps. Nick Chubb at Running Back, and of course cocky Baker Mayfield at Quarterback. People were picking the to win their division. Not anymore! I honestly feel bad for the Browns fans. This was finally going to be their time to shine. The New York Jets looked like they might actually challenge the Patriots with the off season addition of Le’Veon Bell, and CJ Mosley. Well that’s not happening. The Denver Broncos thought they could resurrect Joe Flacco’s career. To be honest as a Broncos fan I didn’t think it was possible. Turns out I was right. The Atlanta Falcons look like a solid team on paper. Too bad for them this game isn’t played on paper, because on the field they have been horrible. The Chicago Bears were 12-4 last season, and won their division. To be fair I felt their record was a bit deceiving last season. They won a few games through incredibly strong Defensive play. The NFL has done all it can to limit Defenses. You can’t expect a team to continue to get by on great Defense alone. The Chicago Offense is garbage. Watch any of their games and I am sure you’ll agree. In today’s NFL that isn’t a recipe for success. Defensive coaches should take notice.

What can be done?

First of all bet against any of the 10 teams I mentioned above, unless they are playing against each other. Strike while the iron is hot. Another side effect of such lopsided divisions is the reduced number of games worth watching. I have never skipped watching this many NFL games before. Maybe if we all ignore the truly horrendous mismatches the NFL will take notice. Nobody wants to say it but for at least a decade the NY Jets, Miami Dolphins, and Buffalo Bills have been tanking it. Why, because they don’t want to invest in players while Belichick and Brady are in their division. It’s not coincidental that both the Buffalo Bills and New York Jets are developing their Quarterbacks of the future now. Most people would predict that Brady is maybe two years from retirement. In fact one more Superbowl could be enough for him to call it quits. When he leaves the division is there for the taking. They are finally beginning to build a team that would stand a chance. The Collective Bargaining Agreement is coming to an end. Hopefully the league will address some of the current issues, and make changes that will prevent non competitive seasons like this in the future.

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FANTASY

TOP 10 NFL FREE AGENCY ACQUISITIONS 2019

1 – ODELL BECKHAM JR.

CLEVELAND BROWNS

Adding Odell Beckham Jr. instantly makes the Cleveland Browns Receiving Duo of Beckham and Landry one of the most dangerous tandems in the league. It will allow Jarvis Landry to line up in the slot position where he is more naturally suited. I would argue that Julian Edelman and Jarvis Landry are the two best Slot Receivers in the league. Both OBJ and Landry are difficult to cover with one on one. You can’t double cover both so Baker Mayfield should find one of them open quite often.

2 – NICK FOLES

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

Jacksonville never really seemed like a legitimate threat with Blake Bortles under center. They gave us a glimpse of what was possible with just average Quarterback play in 2017. They finished the season 10 – 6, won the AFC South, beat Buffalo in the Wild Card game, then defeated Pittsburgh in the Divisional game, to finally lose to the New England Patriots in the AFC Championship game. They actually had the lead going into the fourth quarter of the AFC Championship, but Bortles choked under the pressure. You know who doesn’t choke under pressure? Superbowl MVP Nick Foles. Foles brings a lot of confidence, and a little bit of swagger to a team that could really use some. With Foles as their Quarterback I believe that the Jacksonville Jaguars will go from being a team that hopes to win, to a team that begins games expecting to win.

3 – ANTONIO BROWN

OAKLAND RAIDERS

Jon Gruden took over as the Oakland Raiders Head Coach and has systematically deconstructed the team. Gone are all of it’s Star Players except for the one he chose to keep, Quarterback Derek Carr. With three picks in the first Round of this year’s draft the Oakland Raiders look ready to rebuild. Their first move came before the draft, and that was to acquire the number 1 Wide Receiver in the league Antonio Brown. I can guarantee you that David Carr is happy. After watching Amari Cooper get traded to the Cowboys, Jared Cook get signed by the Saints, and Jordy Nelson announce his retirement. Derek Carr could use a reliable target. As great as he is Antonio Brown isn’t enough. The Raiders will have to find another quality Wide Receiver to compliment him.

4 – JUSTIN HOUSTON

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

The Indianapolis Colts were sneaky good on Defense last Season with a relative bunch of unknowns on their roster. Adding a veteran like Justin Houston is exactly what that young group of Linebackers, and Defensive Lineman need. With the kind of quick starts Andrew Luck is capable of Justin Houston will be able to do what he does best. That’s make things very uncomfortable for opposing Quarterbacks.

5 – LE’VEON BELL

NEW YORK JETS

The time is finally approaching for the return of Le’Veon Bell to the football field. For the first time in his NFL career he won’t be in a Steelers uniform. He will be wearing New York Jets Green and White. Will it prove to be a good fit? This is one of the more difficult moves to predict. How much of Le’Veon Bell’s success was his own ability, and how much was the Pittsburgh Steelers’ great Offensive line, and high powered Offense? It’s hard to stack the box when Antonio Brown is lined up against you. Who is the number one Wide Receiver on the New York Jets? I couldn’t tell you, and I’m a Fantasy Football analyst. That’s how mediocre their squad is. Can Le’Veon Bell carry this team into relevance? Honestly I hope so, but in order for him to do it they will need Offensive Line help and a solid Wide Receiver.

6 – DEE FORD

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS

The 49ers spent last off season acquiring offensive weapons to provide Quarterback Jimmy Garropolo with the best chance of success. This off season has been about the defense. They added what I believe to be the best pass rusher in Free Agency in Dee Ford. With Dee Ford alongside DeForest Buckner the San Francisco 49ers have the capability or overwhelming one side of the Offensive Line, or crashing the middle. Opposing offenses had better have a solid run game, or it’s going to be open season on their Quarterbacks.

7 – CJ MOSLEY

NEW YORK JETS

Just like the Indianapolis Colts Justin Houston acquisition. The New York Jets needed a true leader on the defensive side of the field. CJ Mosley should prove to be the Leader they were looking for. His ability is unquestioned, and he should make an immediate impact. It remains to be seen if the New York Jets can finally challenge the New England Patriots, but at least it appears as though they are trying.

8 – JARED COOK

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

In case you hadn’t noticed, and I’m sure a lot of you didn’t. Jared Cook had a very impressive season at the Tight End position on the very unimpressive Oakland Raiders. The Oakland Raiders practically began the season trying to lose. Still Jared Cook was a Top 5 Tight End in Fantasy Football despite that. Imagine what he can achieve as a New Orleans Saint with Drew Brees throwing him the ball. The Saints have an impressive offense, and Sean Payton has proven throughout his career that he knows how to utilize Tight Ends. Jared Cook could have an even better Season as a New Orleans Saint. If he does, expect the Saints to once again challenge for a Superbowl.

9 – EARL THOMAS III

BALTIMORE RAVENS

Is he the best Safety in the NFL? When he is healthy, he probably is. That’s the real question here. The way Earl Thomas plays, it can be difficult to remain on the field. There’s no question that he is a perfect fit for the Baltimore Ravens Black and Blue Defense. Honestly I see Earl Thomas as a great fit anywhere. He brings a phenomenal skill set, leadership, and ball hawking ability that very few possess. Still when you play in one of the most brutal divisions in the NFL, health is always a concern. I for one hope he plays the full season.

10 – OLIVIER VERNON

CLEVELAND BROWNS

So my list began with the Cleveland Browns, and ends with another Cleveland Brown acquisition. Olivier Vernon is a merc, plain and simple. The thing about mercs is that they aren’t always a great fit. In this case I expect Olivier Vernon to fit right in. The Cleveland Browns are assembling a motley crew of talented Players who I believe will compliment each other instead of trying to outdo one another. They have the right amount of veterans, and youngsters to gel as a solid unit. Olivier Vernon was the final piece they needed on defense. The rest of the AFC should probably take notice.

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LET THE NFL OFFSEASON HYPE BEGIN!

IT STARTS WITH THE OBVIOUS

The Offseason hype always begins with the most valuable Free Agents, and the projected Top Quarterbacks in the NFL Draft. This year that includes Kyler Murray, Dwayne Haskins, Drew Lock, Le’Veon Bell, Earl Thomas III, and Nick Foles. Two of these Players will most likely land in predictable spots. Kyler Murray has become the obvious number 1 pick of the draft as determined by the poll of popular opinion. Nick Foles will most likely be starting for the Jacksonville Jaguars this season. It’s an obvious fit, and Jacksonville is already begun the process of clearing some Cap room. The remaining Players on the list have some uncertain landing spots. Before I get into that I’ll begin with the single most talked about Player right now …

KYLER MURRAY

Will Kyler Murray go number 1 overall in the draft? I’d say that there is about a 90% chance of that happening. The real question is which team will select him? As of the writing of this article the Arizona Cardinals have the first pick of the NFL Draft. Some NFL insiders have gone on record proclaiming that the Cardinals have already decided to take him with the first pick. There are plenty of reasons to doubt it though. The Arizona Cardinals selected Josh Rosen with the 10th pick overall in the 2018 NFL Draft. Last Season wasn’t a success but that can’t be attributed to Josh Rosen’s play. The first half of the season was a total failure because of poor decisions made by the coaching staff. It took an overhaul of the coaching staff to actually open up the playbook, and provide Josh Rosen with an opportunity to showcase his skills. The Arizona Cardinals looked like a much better team the second half of the season. Josh Rosen wasn’t considered as a reach at the 10th pick either. He was touted by most analysts as the most NFL ready Quarterback. In that same draft people expected the Cleveland Browns to select Sam Darnold with the first pick. I didn’t mind you. I had Baker Mayfield as my number 1 and the Cleveland Browns agreed with me. So just because the masses have chosen Kyler Murray as the top Quarterback, doesn’t necessarily make it so. Another reason there is reason to believe the Arizona Cardinals might pass on Kyler Murray is the plethora of other needs they currently have. Keep in mind that unless you see Josh Rosen as a total bust, then Quarterback isn’t one of their most pressing needs. If I was Steve Keim (General Manager of the Arizona Cardinals) I would be looking to trade down and acquire more picks. Theoretically the more darts you throw in the draft, the better your chances are of hitting the bullseye. Steve Keim’s most recent acquisitions haven’t been very successful. That could be why he might give up on Josh Rosen after only one season, and stake his reputation on what appears to be a safe bet in Kyler Murray. How would it look if he traded down and acquired another four picks, and missed on all of those? Trust me a lot of the decisions being made by General Managers and Coaches in the NFL are motivated by fear.

Is Kyler Murray a safe bet? What constitutes a safe bet at Quarterback in the NFL these days? I really liked Baker Mayfield last year, but did I consider him a safe bet? The answer would be no. I can tell you that I was more secure about Baker Mayfield being the first pick in the NFL Draft in 2018, than I am about Kyler Murray as the first pick this year. You know who entered the league as safe bets? Peyton Manning, Eli Manning, John Elway, Cam Newton, and Troy Aikman. Everyone was certain that those five Quarterbacks would make a significant impact. Obviously they were right because they have 9 Superbowl rings as Quarterbacks between them. The only one that hasn’t won a Superbowl is Cam Newton. Which brings up an important point. Cam is at his best when he can threaten opposing defenses as a runner with the ball as well as a passer. As the league has implemented additional rules to protect Quarterbacks. Those rules become moot when they are running with the ball. Cam Newton might be the most physically imposing Quarterback in the league, but he is also one of the most often injured. There have been some incredibly dynamic Running Quarterbacks, but all of them have had mostly limited success due to injury. Much has been said about Kyler Murray’s lack of size. At only 5’10” tall he has made use of his mobility to create angles to passing lanes, and buy himself extra time in the pocket. That’s fine at the college level but in the NFL it only takes one full shot from a 275 pound linebacker to significantly reduce a Quarterback’s mobility. Look what Von Miller did to Cam Newton in Superbowl 50. Cam Newton wanted the game to be over by the third quarter. Cam Newton is 6’5″ 245 pounds and he had enough. How would 5’10” 195 pound Kyler Murray handle it? Is he a safe bet? I don’t think so.

WHERE WILL LE’VEON BELL BE?

People have been asking this question since November of last year. We still aren’t any closer to figuring it out. The first obstacle to overcome is the cost of acquiring him. Le’Veon Bell is asking for 25 million dollars a year. That’s a hefty price for a Running Back. That’s a high price for a Quarterback. If you look at his numbers and judge his worth based solely on that, then yes he is worth every penny. Unfortunately there is a lot more to it. He just sat out an entire season of football. Which means he could be a problem if he ever disagrees with your Head Coach. He has had some injuries in the past, and plays in one of the most precarious positions in football. There’s no guarantee that he won’t get injured after just a few games. His numbers were excellent with the Pittsburgh Steelers. How much of that was his own ability, and how much of it was attributed to being on one of the most dynamic offenses in football?

Which teams would be the best fit for Le’Veon Bell? He would prefer to go to a contender so that really limits the possible teams. Of course he might just go wherever the money is. Lets begin with the win win scenarios. Maybe the best possible landing spot for Le’Veon Bell is the Indianapolis Colts. Andrew Luck is a Superbowl quality Quarterback. T.Y. Hilton can keep Defenses from stacking the box. The Colts Defense is better than most people give them credit for. They also have a tonne of Cap Space so they could actually afford him. Do they actually want him though? The early indications are that they don’t. A number of teams have looked into Le’Veon Bell already and the Colts aren’t one of them. The Houston Texans are an up and coming team that could benefit from acquiring Le’Veon Bell. They would probably be interested but not at the amount he’s looking for. They just don’t have the Cap Space with quite a few key Players approaching Free Agency. The Baltimore Ravens would be an interesting place for Bell to move to because of the long standing rivalry with the Pittsburgh Steelers. Ozzie Newsome isn’t in the habit of taking on high cost risky Free Agents. He generally builds teams through the draft and develops players. So that appears to be a no go as well. Washington could sign him but they have Derrius Guice coming back from injury at quite a bargain in comparison. You would assume that they would want to see what they have there first. Are you beginning to see a pattern emerge? If Le’Veon Bell wants to be the highest paid Running Back in the NFL. He will probably have to do it with a team that’s currently rebuilding.

AND SO IT BEGINS…

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The Truth about Fantasy Football Drafts – Sports Fanatics Play Fantasy SF-46

The 50/50 Rule

If you have been playing Fantasy Football for a few years you’ve probably heard of the 50/50 rule.  Basically half the Players you draft won’t be on your roster by season’s end.  This isn’t necessarily a fact but you can bet that your final roster will look different if you plan on remaining competitive.  As an example I won my Fantasy Football league last year with three key Players on my Roster I didn’t draft.  I picked up Alvin Kamara, Jerick McKinnon, and Alex Collins during the Season.  On most teams in a 12 team league that Running Back trio would have been amazing.  Did I mention that I had drafted Leonard Fournette in the first Round last year as well!  Now you should also know that this is in a PPR Keeper League and my Keepers were Antonio Brown and Julio Jones.  How could I lose?  Well I did trade Julio Jones away midseason.  It would be impossible to draft a team that strong.  I just made the right trades and waiver wire picks when the opportunity arose.

This year’s draft has already been completed. You can see the condensed online draft with all of my selections on the Cobe Life YouTube channel.

Already my roster has gone through some significant changes.  I felt pretty good about landing Jerick McKinnon with my only pick in the first two Rounds.  That was until he went down with a torn ACL during San Francisco’s last practice of the preseason!  I took a flyer on Martavis Bryant because Oakland gave up a third Round pick to acquire him.  Well I guess Oakland is in the habit of giving away third Round picks because they cut him on final cut day.  In case you haven’t already figured it out, so did I.  I also drafted Dez Bryant, planning on stashing him on my Bench for up to 4 weeks with the hopes a decent team would sign him.  Unfortunately with the injury to McKinnon and my best Running Back on the bench being Mark Ingram (In case you weren’t aware Ingram begins the season on a four game suspension) I was forced to abandon my plan and drop Dez so I could pick up McKinnon’s potential back up Matt Brieda.  With my initial draft strategy in shambles I also decided to hedge my bets at Quarterback by replacing Martavis Bryant with Alex Smith.

So before the season has even begun I’ve already changed 3 of my players from a total of 15 on the roster.  What are the odds that I end up switching four more players over the course of the season?  Pretty damn good.

Safe floor vs High ceiling

There are many Fantasy Football pundits that will talk about the importance of choosing Players with a High ceiling.  Now there are a number of Players with exceptionally high ceilings that are guaranteed to score you a fair amount of points every week.  The more of those Players on your team the merrier.  But what about the Players with High ceilings and seriously low floors?    It’s great when your Flex Player gets you 15 points, but it isn’t much of a picnic when they get you 1.3 points.  This is where Safe Floor Players come in.  In order to understand what your mix of Players should be in your league you need to understand how many points are required to win on average each week.  In my PPR Keeper League it usually takes about 125 points to have a decent chance to win each week.  Your starting roster requirements are 1 Quarterback, 2 Running Backs, 2 Wide Receivers, 1 Tight End, 1 Flex (RB, WR, TE) 1 Kicker, and 1 Defence.  Breaking it down by position the average amount of points you are looking for are QB-20pts, RB-15pts, WR-15pts, TE-10pts, K-7pts, DEF-8pts.  So a totally average week would net you 120pts. So somebody on your roster needs to exceed their weekly average to help guarantee your victory.  Of course some of your players could under perform as well.  So what is the best way to prepare for the inevitable?  The answer is having two thirds of your starting roster as Safe Floor Players.  I would rather a Running Back or Wide Receiver that gets me 10 to 12 guaranteed points every week as my number 2 or Flex than a Player that gets me over 20 points once every four weeks, and less than 10 points the others.  Just cause they have a high ceiling doesn’t mean they are Fantasy gold.  The rest of your roster should be filled with High Ceiling hopefully Safe Floor Players.  A great example of a Safe Floor Player is the Number two Slot Receiver on any team with a decent offense in a PPR league.  They might not catch many touchdowns but they generally catch around 5 passes minimum every week for over 50 yards.  A good High ceiling Player to target is the deep threat Wide Receiver or Bell cow back on a High scoring team.

Don’t Stream just Target

People preach streaming Defenses, Kickers, and even Quarterbacks.  I won’t knock their choice because I’ve done it myself.  It can work provided you find yourself in the right situation to do it.  First of all you won’t have success streaming a particular position if two or more other Managers are streaming that position as well.  You don’t want to find yourself fighting to claim Ryan Tannehill off of waivers because he happens to be playing the New York Jets.  Secondly you need to temper your expectations.  Just because somebody is playing in a favourable match up doesn’t necessarily mean they will finish with a favourable result.  Especially if they aren’t a Top tier talent.  Thirdly it’s sometimes a lot more work thsn it’s worth.  While you are trying to decide which Defense to stream that week your opponent noticed that Carlos Hyde pulled a Hamstring during practice and quickly snatched Nick Chubb as a free agent.  There’s enough to think about during a Fantasy Football season.  Why give yourself more?

Some positions don’t matter

This is one of the most idiotic beliefs in Fantasy Football.  Don’t worry about which Kicker you draft because you can always pick one up in Free Agency.  That’s total horse shit!  Wait until you lose because your kicker on that high scoring offense finds himself in a heavy snowfall in November and finishes with 1 point, while your opponent was laughing his way into the winners column with New Orleans Kicker playing at home inside the Superdome.   Just wait on a Defense because they are too unpredictable from year to year.  Another totally daft statement.  You want to talk unpredictable?  Lets talk about starting Running Backs!  I won my league last year because a number of Top Running Backs got injured.  The Dalvin Cook injury made Jerick McKinnon a marquee starter. Mark Ingram wasn’t at 100% so Alvin Kamara progressed faster than anticipated.  The Top Team in my league on paper lost their considerable advantage when David Johnson injured his wrist in the first game of the season.  You would think that might be enough to scrap the entire season for that team.  Well she still made the Playoffs and won her division.  You know how she did it?  She did it by dominating on Defense.  That’s right!  Not only did she spend a mid Round pick on the Jacksonville Jaguars.  She also picked up the Minnesota Vikings when another Manager dropped them because he was streaming Defenses.  For the rest of tbe season she switched back and forth between the two Defenses depending on which one had the better match up and averaged WR2 numbers!  When did you draft your WR2?  I doubt if it was in the 10th Round!  While everyone else in the league was getting 6 to 10 points per week from their Defense, she was getting 11 to 15.  She drafted Carlos Hyde as her third Running Back because he was undoubtedly the number 1 in San Francisco (safe floor) and he was a serviceable replacement for David Johnson.  So what did that all add up to?  Fantasy Football victories!

Don’t listen to the “Experts”, just use common sense and you’ll do fine.

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Questions that need answering – Sports Fanatics Play Fantasy SF-45

Changes are afoot

There were a number of surprises in Fantasy Football last year.  Rookie Running Backs were flying off the waiver wire every week.  The Quarterbacks that went late in the draft became some of tthe Top performers.  Injuries to key Players happened early and often.  Fantasy Football was simply fantastic last Season.  So what should we expect this Season?

Plenty of Comeback Candidates

There are a few Players that missed a lot of time or even the whole Season last year that are primed to have huge Seasons this year.

Deshaun Watson – If you follow Cobe Life on YouTube, you will already know that Deshaun Watson is the highest QB on my draft board.  That’s right, I’m predicting him to be the Top QB in Fantasy Football.  He was already on his way to achieving that last year before he went down to injury.  I expect him to come back fully healthy and well rested.  Draft him with confidence.

David Johnson – David Johnson missed all but one game last Season with a wrist injury.  Before that he was considered to be the number 2 Running Back in the league by my rankings.  Wrist injuries generally heal well, and have very little effect on future performance.  David Johnson is the Arizona Cardinals offense.  I don’t expect a drop in touches.  Actually after being off the field for practically a full Season, he should be raring to go.  He’s my number 3 Running Back on my draft board.

Dalvin Cook – The Minnesota Vikings are a powerhouse team in a powerhouse division that’s in the powerhouse conference.  Dalvin Cook has already proved that he fits their powerhouse offense quite nicely.  Coming back from injury to a team that actually upgraded at Quarterback in the off-season.  Dalvin Cook is sure to find a lot of running room this year.  Snag him in your draft when the opportunity arises.

Julian Edelman – If you take a really good look at the New England Patriots roster you’ll notice something somewhat strange.  You won’t find many star players on it.    That’s what makes the return of Julian Edelman so huge.  On the offensive side of the ball there are three obvious stars.  Two of which (Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski) will be extremely difficult to draft unless you don’t mind reaching.  That leaves the returning Edelman as the only star on the Patriots that could fall below his true draft value.  I’m not even close to being a fan of the Patriots, but if Edelman falls in my draft.  I’m taking him.

Rookie Breakouts

Saquon Barkley – Saquon Barkley is for real.  I don’t take what I see in the preseason too seriously.  What I have seen from him will definitely carry over into the regular Season.  He’s elusive, has a great burst of speed through the hole, runs hard, runs fast, and has sure hands.  Barring a complete New York Giants breakdown, Saquon Barkley should finish as a Top 5 Running Back.  In most drafts he’s the 8th Running Back off the board.  Go ahead and reach.

Royce Freeman – Nobody really knows what to expect from Denver.  With Case Keenum ar Quarterback and the stacked Defense they already have, they could look a lot like last year’s Minnesota Vikings.  If that’s the case Royce Freeman could be in line for a lot of fantastic opportunities.  He has the potential to be one of those Rookie Running Backs that helps you reach the Fantasy playoffs.  There is some risk here, but if the Broncos can get a few leads in games Freeman will have an amazing season.

Calvin Ridley – First off I should mention that I generally don’t draft rookie Wide Receivers. It takes a while to learn a new offense, than get in sync with the team’s quarterback.  The calibre of cornerback they face from week to week is significantly higher.  It just takes awhile for Wide Receivers to adjust.  There is the odd exception though.  In this case it’s in the form of a pedestrian number 2 Wide Receiver, and a number 1 Wide Receiver that demands double coverage.  Calvin Ridley could serve as a decent bye week replacement or flex starter during the season.  If either Sanu or Jones gets hurt then he becomes highly valued.  I might draft him as insurance or trade bait when the time is right.

Wild Cards

There are a few key changes at the most important position that could flip this fantasy Season on it’s head.

Patrick Mahomes II – What will the Kansas City Chiefs offense look like in 2018?  I’ll tell you what it won’t be, boring.  Watching Mahomes play is like watching high school football.  He seems to hold on to the ball too long for the NFL but somehow gets away with it.  I’ve watched him ignore the easy dump off to his Running Back to attempt a deep throw downfield and let his Wide Receiver attempt to make a play.  Alex Smith he is not!  Now is that a good thing for the Fantasy Players you drafted on the Kansas City Chiefs?  I really don’t know.  I’ll tell you one thing.  I don’t expect Kansas City to win as many games as they did last year.  I wouldn’t be surprised if they didn’t make the playoffs.

Kirk Cousins – I expect Cousins to eclipse 4000 yards passing and throw for at least 30 touchdowns.  In other words he will be a Top 5 Quarterback this year.  His receiving corps is significantly better than who he had in Washington.  He got a huge contract and will be expected to earn it.  Look at the season Case Keenum had behind that offensive line.  Just imagine what Cousins will do.  As a result of his signing I’ll draft Vikings offensive players every chance I get.

The Countdown is on.

The first week of the season is drawing near.  I hope you’ve done your research because it’s sure to be another wild and crazy Fantasy Football year.

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The New look of Fantasy Football – Sports Fanatics Play Fantasy SF-44

How times have changed

If you have been playing Fantasy Football for the last decade then you have probably noticed a few changes.  Some of these changes can have a dramatic effect on how your Fantasy Football team performs from week to week.   Despite these changes, many Fantasy Football analysts refuse to adjust their strategies.  Well I can admit that I was resistant to change as well, and held steadfast for a couple of Seasons.  It took missing the Playoffs in my Keeper League for the first time in years to make me adjust my strategy.  The end result speaks for itself, I’m league Champion!  So what changes am I referring to?  In this article I’ll cover the three most important changes that you should be aware of.

Concussion Protocol

If you aren’t aware of how the NFL Concussion Protocol can effect the overall performance of your Fantasy Football team?   You need to pay close attention to this portion of the article.  For many years both the NFL and Players have misrepresented how often Players get concussed.  What was once considered a mild concussion that would have a Player miss a snap or two, can now cause them to miss the rest of a game.  I’ve already had this occur to key Players on my Fantasy teams in the first quarter of games.  Imagine what your chances of victory would be if your top Running Back was knocked out in the first quarter.  I remember when Players were considered tough if they got knocked out in the first half, and returned to play in the second half.  Nowadays those same Players would be considered foolhardy.  In reality those Players can no longer exist because the NFL Concussion Protocol has already removed them from the game, and quite likely the next game as well.  Something you should be aware of is that the more concussions a Player has had, the more likely that they will be susceptible to another.  Treat the brain like any other part of the human body that can sustain injury.  Some Fantasy Football Managers refuse to draft anyone that’s had an ACL injury.  I’m not one those but I do take injuries into consideration.  If two equally skilled Players are available to draft, and one of them has a history of injuries or concussions then I’ll draft the other Player.  The reality is that injuries are a part of the game.  Most injuries are manageable.  Players will play through minor injuries, and modern medicine has made recovery from major injuries relatively quick.  Concussion Protocol on the other hand is now governed by it’s own set of rules.  It’s because of this that you should be well aware.

Rookie Impact

Rookies have always had a place in Fantasy Football.  The temptation to draft a Rookie was always there, but more often than not didn’t pan out.  Every year the NFL media hype machine would latch on to a couple Rookies and have you believing that they were the second coming.  Very rarely did any of these Players reach their potential in their first Season.  Well like I said in the beginning, times have changed.   Rookies have become far more NFL ready over the last few years.  Especially positions that require more individual skill then scheme recognition.  Fantasy Football Managers shouldn’t be afraid to draft highly skilled Running Backs, or Quarterbacks.  Don’t make the mistake of underestimating the effect a top level rookie linebacker will immediately have on a Defense.  The coaching and Player development at the College level is at an all time high.  The only position that I remain wary of is Wide Receiver.  There are some complex timing routes in the NFL that can take more than a season to master.

Who’s Number 1?

I remember the days when NFL teams had a definitive number 1 Running Back, Wide Receiver, and Tight End.  Draft position was proportional to a Player’s ranking on their team’s depth chart.  Some Managers still approach their draft preparation with that archaic system in mind.  If that was you last Season then you probably missed out on Players like Adam Thielen, or Davante Adams.  If I asked 10 Fantasy Football Managers who they felt would finish with more fantasy points this Season between Diggs and Thielen, Thomas and Sanders, Ingram and Kamara, or Nelson and Cooper.  I bet no two Managers would give the same answers.  What this means to you is that Players that are second on their team’s depth chart could easily out perform top tier Players on other teams.  It’s also worth noting that having two Wide Receivers or Running Backs from the same team on your roster can make total sense.

 

Get with the times

There are a number of other things that have changed but I haven’t drafted yet so you will have to wait to find out.  If you take the three factors I’ve mentioned in this article into consideration this season you should be fine.  Good luck this Season, unless you are in a league against me of course. 😉

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FANTASY

2018 Fantasy Football Breakouts – Sports Fanatics play Fantasy SF-43

My Potential Breakouts

It’s July and the Fantasy Football Season is finally upon us. The usual off season shenanigans have led to a few suspensions. A few Players have announced that they are retiring. There’s always the talk about whether Tom Brady can keep up his high level of play for another year. Well I’m not interested in any of that. During the off season I’m only interested in figuring out one thing. Who are going to be the breakout players next season? Well I have selected eight players that should have the opportunity to put up some serious Fantasy Football numbers this year. I’ll begin with the Quarterback.

QUARTERBACK

Deshaun Watson
– If it wasn’t for the injury he sustained to his ACL in the first week of November last Season there’s no way he would be on this list. Deshaun Watson looked so good in the 7 games he played that I made a pretty big trade for him after week 5. He was on pace to eclipse 4000 yards and 40 touchdowns. I’ll take those numbers any day. Had he been healthy he could have finished the season with more fantasy points then Tom Brady. That’s all it will take for Deshaun Watson to have a breakout season. He just has to stay healthy. I’ll definitely be targeting him in drafts. There’s a good chance that a lot of Fantasy Football managers will be worried about picking a player coming back off a torn ACL. Well I’m not. Modern medicine has made the career ending ACL injury a thing of the past.

WIDE RECEIVERS

Josh Gordon
– I really struggled with whether I should include Josh Gordon in this list or not. In 2013 he put up amazing numbers. He had 87 receptions for 1646 yards with 9 of those being for touchdowns, and got selected to the Pro Bowl. So can a player who has demonstrated that kind of ability be considered as a potential 2018 breakout? The answer is yes. Josh Gordon finds himself in a rather unique situation after missing almost three Seasons due to suspensions for violating the NFL’s substance abuse policy multiple times. He finally returned to the field for the first time since 2014 at the end of last season. Although we didn’t get to see much of him. It was enough for me to recognize that although he’s been away from the game for awhile, his skills haven’t diminished. With an improved situation in Cleveland, and a much better Quarterback throwing him the ball. This could be the official return of Josh Gordon as a truly dominant Wide Receiver to the NFL. I would draft him as a high end number 2 with upside, or a low end number 1 if I went RB – RB to start the draft.

Will Fuller V
– You have already read how I feel about Deshaun Watson. Well I expect Will Fuller to be one of the major beneficiaries of that arm talent. Best of all there’s a very good chance that he will get overlooked by most people and fall in drafts. The main reason that might happen is because he isn’t the number 1 Wide Receiver on the Houston Texans. That honour belongs to what has to be considered one of the top 5 Wide Receivers in the league DeAndre Hopkins. Do I expect him to compete with DeAndre Hopkins for the top spot in Houston? Hell no! What I do expect to see him do is plenty of endzone celebrations. It took a few games for Will Fuller V and Deshaun Watson to get in sync last season but once they did they hooked up for 7 touchdowns in 4 games. SEVEN TOUCHDOWNS IN 4 GAMES! Sorry it just had to be said once more. That’s just ridiculous. Even if you count the first three games where their timing was off, that’s still an average of one touchdown per game. Across a full season that’s 16 touchdowns, or 96 fantasy points in standard leagues and 112 points in PPR before you calculate yardage. Sign me up for some of that. If I don’t draft Will Fuller V somewhere in the middle rounds of my draft I’ll hate myself a little. Trust me when I tell you that you had better be willing to do the same or suffer the consequences.

DeVante Parker
– Parker makes this list because for the first time in his career he should be the man in Miami. He has spent the last couple of seasons being overshadowed by one of my favourite PPR monsters Jarvis Landry. Although DeVante Parker is more of a true number 1 Wide Receiver, Landry was targeted so often in Miami that it didn’t leave much for anyone else to shine. Well Landry is in Cleveland now, and Miami appears to be ready to open up the offense a little more. The Player who should benefit the most is DeVante Parker. He could finish the season as a low end number 1, but you might be able to draft him as your number 2, or even number 3 he’s so under the radar.

Mike Williams
– I was a big Mike Williams fan in the 2017 draft, and when he got selected by the Chargers I figured he would have a good rookie season. Well a series of injuries prevented that from happening. I did see just enough to know that I was correct about his ability. Missing most of his rookie season could actually be a blessing in disguise. Wide Receiver is one of the most difficult positions to transition into the NFL with. They need to learn a whole new playbook. The catch windows are smaller. The Cornerbacks are smarter, faster, and bigger. They need to get in sync with a new quarterback. There are a lot of reasons why I generally don’t draft rookie Wide Receivers. Well Williams has had a full Season to study the playbook, and get a feel for the offense. I’m sure he’s spent a lot of time with Philip Rivers to get a sense of his timing. I just have a feeling that although Keenan Allen is Rivers’ number 1 target. It’s my belief that Williams will get a lot of targets in the endzone. Do yourself a favour and draft him.

JuJu Smith-Schuster
– This probably won’t come as much of a surprise to anyone. With a name like JuJu Smith-Schuster it’s hard to miss his highlight reel catches from last season. I’m not even sure the Pittsburgh Steelers knew what kind of a talent they had in JuJu until about midseason last year. That’s why I believe that although he had a great season last year, JuJu Smith-Schuster could have an even better one this year. His targets per game doubled in the second half of last season. Those kinds of target numbers should continue from Week 1 of this Season. I’m sure the Steelers have made some changes to their playbook to specifically target him more this season as well. It might require a bit of a reach in some drafts to get him but he might be worth it.

RUNNING BACKS

Dalvin Cook
– Dalvin Cook is another rookie who was on his way to having a great Fantasy Football Season when he got sidelined by injury. Like Deshaun Watson in suffered a torn ACL and only got to play in a few games. In those few games we got to see a Running Back that was strong through the line, elusive, and could catch out of the backfield. In the four games he played he went over 100 scrimmage yards twice while splitting time with Jerick McKinnon and Latavius Murray. Now McKinnon is gone, and although I do expect Latavius Murray to get some of the short yardage work. Dalvin Cook is sure to be the lead back in Minnesota. The addition of Kirk Cousins with his ability to throw the deep ball will only help create additional space at the line of scrimmage. I expect Dalvin Cook to have an exceptional season.

Derrick Henry
– I am a huge Derrick Henry fan. I have been since before he entered the league. He is an absolute monster of a Running Back. If you are a fan of Marshawn Lynch, then pay attention to Derrick Henry because he should be the next “beast mode” in the NFL. As a Tennessee Titan he was forced to take a back seat to DeMarco Murray. It’s only for that reason he hasn’t already established himself as a number I Running Back. This Season I expect the Tennessee Titans to finally utilize him as their lead back which will mean more touches, more opportunities, and more touchdowns. By midseason if he isn’t on your roster, you will be trying to figure out a way to trade for him. Don’t put yourself in that position. Just draft him when you have the chance.

Hopefully I’ve provided you with a little extra ammunition against the other Managers in your league.  Good luck this Season.

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NFL Rookie Minicamps – Sports Fanatics play Fantasy SF-42

Don’t believe the hype!

It’s that time of year when interesting news about the NFL is at a minimum.  There’s no combine to get us speculating.  The draft is over so that means the 286 mock drafts you studied were all proved to be totally wrong.  Any of the Free Agents you were really interested in are already signed.  The only things happening at this particular moment are Rookie Minicamps.  As a result of this the NFL Insiders really have nothing better to do than exaggerate everything they see happen.  When you here someone speculate that Derrius Guice could be the next Marshall Faulk because he caught two passes during a drill in the Rookie Minicamp.  Do yourself a favour and don’t just take that statement with a grain of salt.  Take it with the whole damn salt shaker!  I came across an article that described Baker Mayfield as the second coming.  Not only did he complete three straight passes, but it was to two different Receivers!  I hope the Patriots had a spy close by to take notes so they can properly game plan for him.  What’s really disappointing about the information that industry Insiders choose to share with the masses, is that they only focus on the obvious stars!

What about the undrafted Free Agents?

If you are a true fan of NFL football, then you will know of at least a couple Undrafted Free Agents that went on to become Superstars.  I’m talking about the Tony Romo, Kurt Warner, or Antonio Gates type of Player.  Could there be a Player of that caliber picked up a few days after the draft?  Has anyone that we don’t already know about show some real promise in the Rookie Minicamp?  If there is I’d absolutely love to hear about it!  I’m going to go out on a metaphorical limb here, and say that we won’t hear about anyone.  You can be damn sure that by week 1 of the NFL Season there will be a few names of Players that you didn’t hear a peep about until they lit it up during the Preseason.  One day they seemingly don’t exist, then during the third game of the Preseason they make a highlight reel play, and every NFL Insider has full chapter and verse on them.  It happens in mere seconds.  Sure they have Player profiles in their database on every Player.  That’s not what this is.  They already saw the potential in the Rookie Minicamp, OTAs, and full team training camps.  They just never had the guts to go on the record, and make a real prediction.  Better to say absolutely nothing than to risk being wrong.

And that’s precisely why!

All you are going to hear about over the next couple of weeks are safe predictions about first or second Round draft selections.  You will get tidbits of information about Players that provide a suitable scandal, or human interest story.  What I can promise you is that anything you hear shouldn’t effect who you plan on keeping in your Keeper league, or selecting in your Fantasy draft.  Unless they get injured of course.  Well that’s just a part of football.  If you didn’t know that you probably shouldn’t be playing Fantasy.