Bet on the Home Team
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This Season it’s particularly difficult to bet against the home team in the first Round. That’s not to say that the visiting squads don’t have a chance. Lets take a look at each match, and see where the keys to victory for each team lie.
Buffalo Bills at Jacksonville Jaguars
After an unlikely turn of events the Buffalo Bills find themselves back in the Post Season. Predicted by most to be irrelevant this Season, the Bills surprised everyone with their exceptional Defensive play, and game breaking performances by LeSean McCoy and Tyrod Taylor. They will need all three of those elements to be functioning at 100% if they expect to get by Jacksonville. There lies the issue. LeSean McCoy will definitely be less than 100% on Sunday. Without LeSean McCoy at full strength to take some of the pressure off of Tyrod Taylor, the Jacksonville Jaguars’ pass rush will declare open season on the Bills’ QB. That leaves the Buffalo Bills Defence as their only path to victory. Their first job will be to contain rookie sensation Leonard Fournette. If they are able to do that then forcing Blake Bortles into making key mistakes is what it will take to win.
Another surprise team in the Post Season, the Jacksonville Jaguars actually have all the tools necessary to go deep into the Playoffs. A very strong Defence, a featured Running Back, weapons at all levels of the Offence, and some veteran leadership. The only knock against them is the inconsistent play of their signal caller Blake Bortles. Don’t make the mistake of dismissing them for that reason. Quarterbacks have won Superbowls with far worse play than Bortles has showcased this Season. The old adage is that Defence wins championships. Well if that is the case then the Jacksonville Jaguars could be on their way to the Superbowl. In order to beat the Buffalo Bills, all Jacksonville will have to do is limit their mistakes. Protecting the Ball will be their path to victory. Fournette is such a Beast of a Running Back that the Bills won’t be able to totally contain him. I don’t expect this to be a high scoring affair, but I expect Jacksonville to score Touchdowns when they get into the Red zone, and be able to limit the Buffalo Bills to only Field Goals. In the end I expect that to be the difference.
Jacksonville Jaguars by 6
Tennessee Titans at Kansas City Chiefs
Now here is a match between two teams that are about as difficult to predict how they’ll play, or who will win. If I were to ask you to describe what type of team the Tennessee Titans are. What would your answer be? Are they a hard Running clock control Offence? Sometimes they are. Is Mariota an elusive Quarterback that can go downfield and take over a game? Well he’s done it before, but he’s also a competent game manager. Their Defence is built to stop the Run but does it? Honestly figuring out how the Titans might approach this particular game is difficult, and that’s what makes them dangerous. You just don’t quite know what to expect when you face them. There is one thing that they lack that the Kansas City Chiefs have plenty of though and that’s… Star Power
At times this Season the Kansas City Chiefs appeared to be the best team in football. Then again there were a few games they played this year that made them seem totally disorganized. Which team will show up at Arrowhead stadium on Saturday remains to be seen. One thing is for sure. All eyes will be on Star Players Tyreek Hill, Kareem Hunt, Travis Kelce, and Alex Smith. Each and every one of those players have proven that they can take over a game. If just two of them step up Saturday’s game could end up as a blowout. What Kansas City does best is strike hard and fast when you least expect it. A delayed draw play to Kareem Hunt can quickly turn into 20+ yards. A screen pass to Tyreek Hill in a third and long situation can suddenly become a trip to the endzone. Try to limit the Kansas City Chiefs perimeter Offence, and you end up getting burned by Kelce across the middle. Oh and just in case you thought you might be able to turn the game into a shootout. The Kansas City Chiefs Defence is none too shabby either. In other words the only way I can see the Kansas City Chiefs losing is if they beat themselves. The thing is they’ve done it quite a few times this Season. The thing is I don’t see them doing it at home.
Kansas City Chiefs by 10
Atlanta Falcons at Los Angeles Rams
“Embrace the suck” has been the Falcons motto this Season. Well they’re back in the Post Season after their Superbowl meltdown last year. There’s no denying that the Atlanta Falcons are excellent on paper. They have a franchise Quarterback in Matty Ice. Julio Jones is probably the most physically dominant Wide Receiver in the NFL. Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman are a potent one two punch at Running Back. They have veterans at every level of the Defence. It shouldn’t really be a surprise that they are back in the playoffs. Then why does it feel that way? Things just haven’t clicked for the Atlanta Falcons this Season. Something seems a little off. Could it be that the team we watched in awe last Season was a total fluke? I don’t think so. What I believe is that it’s rare to have all of your Star Players playing to their full potential at the same time. If the Atlanta Falcons want to win this game it’s going to be in Julio’s hands to do it. When he has a great game, so does the entire team. Double covered or not, just throw him the ball. There aren’t too many Cornerback/Safety tandems that can effectively cover him. Unfortunately for the Los Angeles Rams they don’t have one of those tandems.
So the Los Angeles Rams are not only in the Post Season, but they are playing at home. They have who I would consider to be the Offensive Player of the year in Todd Gurley. Jared Goff is playing like the first pick overall this Season. The Rams Defence is still the dominant Defence it’s always been, but now gets to play with a lead at times. 5 times this Season they put up 40+ points so you know this Offence can score. If there’s a weakness it’s whether or not they are ready for the Post Season. Obviously the Falcons are ready. They have got to be chomping at the bit to get back to the Superbowl. This game will come down to who stops who’s Star Player. Will the Falcons be able to contain Todd Gurley, or will the Rams be able to contain Julio Jones? As much as I want to see the Rams advance I’m going to go with the experience here.
Atlanta Falcons by 3
Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints
Superman is in the building. The success of this Season’s Carolina Panthers begins and ends with their charismatic signal caller Cam Newton. Injuries and inconsistencies have plagued their usually dominant Defence. This Season the wins came through the strength of Cam’s arm, and at times his legs. Having Greg Olsen back is a huge boost, but will it be enough? The Panthers lack a legitimate deep threat to help keep the New Orleans Saints Defence honest. You can almost guarantee that the Saints will dedicate at least a linebacker to keep close tabs on Cam, and I would expect a few Corner or Safety blitzes as well. I know I’m supposed to be campaigning on Carolina’s behalf during this paragraph but it’s difficult to do so. Cam will have to be almost perfect to win this game.
The New Orleans Saints resemble the team that won the Superbowl. Drew Brees is still one of the Top Quarterbacks in the NFL. They have the best tandem of Running Backs in football with Mark Ingram, and Alvin Kamara. Michael Thomas has quietly become one of the Top Wide Receivers in the NFL. Their Defence which has been their Achilles heel in recent Seasons is playing at a very high level. Home field advantage is absolutely huge for the Saints. Losing at home is a rarity for them. The Superdome is easily in the Top 5 of Home field advantage stadiums. Player to Player the New Orleans Saints are just better than the Carolina Panthers. Of all the games this weekend, this is the one I’m most certain of. It would be a travesty if the Saints lost this game.
New Orleans Saints by 11