Tag: Football

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FANTASY

Sports Fanatics play Fantasy SF-7 Jameis Winston

Top 100 highlights

My fifth selection for the Top 100 highlight series from the 60-51 group is

Jameis Winston

Since entering the league Winston has managed to post back to back 4000 passing yard seasons.  His Fantasy numbers last season were better than Brady’s.  Keep in mind that Brady played four fewer games before you get too excited.  One category he definitely exceeded Brady in was total number of interceptions unfortunately.  Jameis Winston threw 18 interceptions last season.  When you compare that to only two for Brady, it’s obviously a problem.  If your Fantasy league penalizes Quarterbacks the usual -2 points for an interception.  Then Jameis Winston flushed an additional 32 points more than Brady down the drain.

Should that be enough to keep you from drafting Jameis Winston?

It’s obvious that the Tampa Bay Buccaneers believe in there number one overall draft pick.  All they’ve done is surround him with talented offensive targets.  Any quarterback in the league would be happy to have the group of skill Players at Winston’s disposal.  Cameron Brate, and O.J. Howard to create mismatches across the middle.  A true WR1 in Mike Evans that most people including me would consider a top 5 Wide Receiver in Fantasy football.  Now you can add DeSean Jackson to the mix. He now provides Jameis Winston with the deep threat he was lacking.  Do I see another 4000 yard season in Jameis Winston’s future?  You don’t need a crystal ball to figure out that the answer is yes.

The Bucs weren’t able to effectively stretch Defences last year.  As a result of that Jameis Winston was forced to throw in to some really tight windows.  It’s no wonder he racked up 18 interceptions.  With the addition of DeSean Jackson Defences won’t be able to simply clog up the first 15 yards beyond the line of scrimmage.  The Tight Ends will have more room across the middle, and Evans shouldn’t face as many double coverages.  The real benefactor here is Jameis Winston.  He won’t be forced to place every throw just perfect, or make as many risky throws.

Now is Jameis Winston a top tier Fantasy QB you should target in your draft?  Well that’s going to depend on what type of QB you are after, and which round you intend to draft them?  If the Quarterback position is something you place a great deal of importance in.  Then grabbing Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, Tom Brady, or Andrew Luck early makes sense.  If you would prefer to wait until later in the draft to pick up a consistent trustworthy signal caller.  Then grab Russell Wilson, Kirk Cousins, or Philip Rivers to play it safe.  Now if you’re like me.  You’ll want a Quarterback on your roster that has the potential to have Boom or bust weeks.   You can probably hold off for a bit and pull the trigger a little later to get Jameis Winston, Cam Newton, or Tyrod Taylor.  Each of these Quarterbacks have the ability to take over a game, and put up huge Fantasy numbers on any given week.  They also have the occasional flop.  Hopefully you are able to draft them late enough that their flop weeks are offset by the amazing Running Backs, and Wide Receivers you drafted earlier.

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FANTASY

Sports Fanatics play Fantasy SF-6 Jay Ajayi

The top 100 highlights

My fourth selection for the Top 100 highlight series from the 70-61 group is

Jay Ajayi

Ajayi began last season as a mid to late round flyer of a draft pick.  By mid season he was a definite RB2 with breakout game potential.  By season’s end he was statistically a true fantasy RB1.  It wasn’t like Ajayi wasn’t on people’s radar during draft time.  He showed flashes of what he could become briefly in 2015.  Then with Lamar Miller gone in 2016 the door was open for him to become the man.  It just took him a little longer to turn the handle and step on through.  By the end of the preseason when most Fantasy drafts occur.  He really hadn’t performed well enough to give Fantasy team Managers any real idea of what to expect.  He finished the season with almost 1300 rushing yards.  I don’t think anyone expected that, including the Miami Dolphins.  Well you can be certain that nobody will be sleeping on Jay Ajayi this year.

Jay Ajayi finished last season as a legitimate Fantasy RB1.  What can we actually expect to get from him this year?  Much of the same my friends.  Much of the same, and possibly even a little bit better.  You can go out and bet the farm that Adam Gase will involve Ajayi even more this year.  Every indication is that Ajayi is eager, and ready to become Miami’s bell cow Back.  Something there are very few of in today’s NFL.  Running Backs thrive in an Adam Gase system.  Even average Running Backs put up good numbers.  Ajayi’s three 200+ yard games last season are evidence enough that he is way better than average.  It took about a quarter of the season before Miami fully involved him last year.  That won’t be the case this year.  Ryan Tannehill’s further development, and increased level of confidence after making the playoffs last year.  That can only help keep the opposing Defence honest, and Ajayi should find plenty of running room.  Playing against the Buffalo Bills twice during the Fantasy playoffs has got to have Fantasy Managers just drooling.  Keep in mind that two of the three games Ajayi rushed for over 200 yards came against the Bills last year.

I must sound like the president of the Jay Ajayi fan club right about now.  To clarify, drafting Ajayi does come with a few concerns.  First of all the sample size of actual NFL experience is just too small.  Remove the three 200+ yard games from last year’s stats.  Ajayi only averaged 54 yards per game, and one touchdown for every three games played.  Average that over a 16 game season, and your final stat line would be, 864 yards rushing with 5 touchdowns.  That doesn’t sound like an RB1 to me.  Now how eager are you itching to draft him?

What I believe is that Jay Ajayi finished what was statistically a very good season last year.  In spite of being improperly utilized for most of the season during a transitional year for the team.  I don’t think Adam Gase will overlook Ajayi this year, and that the Miami Dolphins will be fully prepared to start the season.  If you draft Jay Ajayi as your RB1 you should be fine.  If somehow you are able to draft him as your RB2 then obviously you scored a great draft position.  Either way you are in good shape if Jay Ajayi is on your Fantasy team.

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FANTASY

Sports Fanatics play Fantasy SF-5 Julian Edelman

The top 100 highlights

My third selection for the Top 100 highlight series from the 80-71 group is

Julian Edelman

Edelman reaped the benefits of being Tom Brady’s favourite target last season.  He had a career best 1106 receiving yards.  This was from hauling in his second highest amount of total receptions in a season with 98.

What’s clearly evident is that Tom Brady has complete trust in Julian Edelman.   All the proof you need is to think back to last season’s Superbowl.  Remember that miracle catch Edelman made to keep the comeback alive.  Not an easy catch to forget is it?  If you haven’t forgotten, then obviously Brady hasn’t.  You can bet your ass the other Fantasy Managers in your league haven’t forgotten it either.  There is definitely going to be a lot of interest in Edelman at this year’s Fantasy draft.  Julian Edelman will probably get drafted a round or two earlier then his statistically projected draft position.  Should you make the reach, and grab him before somebody else does?

I definitely won’t!

Things really aren’t looking good for Julian Edelman’s potential output in 2017.  If you are hoping for a repeat of last year’s numbers, or even better.  Well keep hoping.  Hope real hard because there are a number of things that need to occur in order for that to happen.  The Patriots made a big move in the off season to sign former New Orleans Saints wide receiver Brandin Cooks.  Cooks is 8 years younger than Edelman, has the potential to reach the end zone every time he touches the ball, and has a similar skill set.  Who actually ends up as Brady’s favourite target in the end is anyone’s guess.  There in lies the problem.  Even if Edelman remains as Brady’s favourite target.  Cooks is still going to get a fair number of looks which means less opportunity for Edelman.  Another thing to consider is how many games a banged up, but altogether healthier Gronkowski will play this year.  Gronkowski played only 8 games last year at less than 100%.  As a result he scored a career low 3 touchdowns instead of his usual double digit tally.  You would think that should have provided ample opportunity for Edelman to find pay dirt.  Well it didn’t.  In 16 games Edelman reached the end zone only three times.  That’s a problem for Fantasy owners.  Instead the Patriots gave the ball to their bruising Running Back Legarrette Blount.  Well Blount is now an Eagle.  I still believe that Edelman will be mostly ignored in the Red zone.

Take my advice and let somebody else reach for Julian Edelman.  He is at best a high end WR3.

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FANTASY

Sports Fanatics play Fantasy SF-4 Doug Baldwin

The Top 100 highlights

My second selection for the Top 100 highlight series from the 90-81 group is

Doug Baldwin

After clearly establishing himself as the number 1 Wide Receiver in Seattle in 2015.  Baldwin didn’t have the kind of season Fantasy owners were hoping for last year.  By no means was it an off year for Baldwin.  He still had a career best 94 receptions, and 1128 receiving yards.  So how was that a let down to his Fantasy Football owners?  What I failed to mention was that he scored half as many touchdowns as he did in 2015.  A decrease from 14 touchdowns to 7.  That’s 42 Fantasy points in most formats, for those of you that are keeping track.  Imagine a full roster of players that lost 42 points worth of touchdowns from the previous season.  Chances are you wouldn’t even be sniffing the playoffs.

Doug Baldwin’s lack of touchdown production wasn’t all his fault.  For most of the season Russell Wilson wasn’t playing at 100%.  After slowly increasing Wilson’s pass production year after year, and giving him the go ahead to throw the deep ball.  Seattle chose to reign him in a little last year to protect their franchise quarterback.  If it wasn’t for their lack of a quality running game.  Seattle would have probably dialed the passing game back even more.  So even though Wilson actually threw quite a lot of passes.  The majority of those were short to intermediate length routes.  That’s why Baldwin despite having a career year in receptions, didn’t find the end zone nearly as often.

Am I expecting a further decline this season?  No I am not.  The opposite actually.  This could very well be the year that Baldwin is considered among the elite Wide Receivers in the NFL.  What I am actually expecting is a mixture of his 2015 & 2016 seasons.  A stat line of something like 95 catches for 1100 yards, and 11 touchdowns is highly probable.  I believe that he could actually exceed those numbers.  It will depend on the production of recently acquired Running Back Eddy Lacy though.

Without question Doug Baldwin is a WR1.  I would draft him over Fantasy favourites like DeAndre Hopkins, T.Y. Hilton, and Demaryius Thomas.  With a healthy Russell Wilson back in the huddle.  Look for Doug Baldwin to find lots of room on the outside, and down field.  Another year in the Seattle Seahawks system has Jimmy Graham keeping defences honest so Baldwin won’t have to face too many double coverages.

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FANTASY

Sports Fanatics play Fantasy SF-3 Adrian Peterson

The top 100 Fantasy highlights

This is my first entry of the Top 100 Fantasy takeaways.  Each entry will include a single Player selected from each group of 10.  Beginning with my first selection from the 100-91 group.

Adrian Peterson

This will be his first season representing a team other then the Minnesota Vikings.  At 32 years of age it seems like a strange time to be adjusting to a new system.  A Sean Payton New Orleans system which has traditionally been a drop back and throw first game.  Doesn’t sound like somewhere All Day Peterson could thrive does it.  Now wait a minute.  We are talking about Adrian Peterson here.  The same guy that came back after what should have been a Career ending injury for anyone.  Then just imposed his will to the tune of 1700+ all purpose yards with 11 touchdowns.  Considering his average draft position that year, he probably single handedly carried his owners to their Fantasy league playoffs.  Doubt this guy, and it could mean your Downfall.

Well you know what, I’m going to doubt him this year.  Unless he sets himself apart during the preseason, I’m taking a hard pass on Peterson.  It’s not that I don’t believe in his ability.  On the contrary, I believe Adrian Peterson is still a powerful Running Back that deserves respect.  What I don’t believe in is his situation.  Sean Payton is still one of the most brilliant offensive minds in Football.  He has had great success with a number of Running Backs.  The issue is that the majority of these Running Backs succeeded because they were great pass catching Backs.  Darren Sproles, Pierre Thomas, and Mark Ingram were all successful in part to their pass catching ability.  Adrian Peterson is not a pass catching Back.  You are seriously delusional if you think otherwise.  The next issue is that Mark Ingram is still there, and has proven that he can be the lead back.  10 touchdowns last season (a 7-9 Season)  illustrates the point. They also drafted Alvin Kamara in the third round.  Have you seen the tape on this guy.  He’s just too talented to not be utilized by Sean Payton.  Another word of caution about Payton.  He really likes to spread the ball around.  Even if Adrian Peterson ends up as the number 1 Running Back on the depth chart.  There’s no guarantee that he will receive more than 15 touches a game.  For a Running Back that traditionally gets stronger as the game goes on the more touches he gets.  That’s something that you should worry about.  Then there is the question of age.  Most Running Backs begin breaking down at the age of 30.  As I mentioned before, Adrian Peterson is by no means like most Backs.  Still a few injuries have caused concern, and if The Saints find themselves in the hunt for a playoff spot by mid Season.  I wouldn’t be surprised if they further limit his touches in order to keep him fresh for the playoffs.  Great if you are a New Orleans Saints fan.  Terrible if you are relying on him to help you in your Fantasy league.  The last issue, and by no means the least is the Saints brutally horrible Defence.  Last year, and the year before that, and the year before that they couldn’t stop anyone from scoring.  They were so bad in fact, that I’d play bench players over my starters if they were playing against the Saints.  When playing from behind the clock becomes your enemy.  The last thing you want to do is run the ball.  Unless the Saints get their Defence figured out.  Drew Brees will probably finish in the Top 3 in passing yards, and first in attempts again.  Not a great situation for Adrian Peterson.

So am I telling you to totally avoid Adrian Peterson?  No I’m not.  Draft him as your RB3 if you want.  You can start him in a pinch, or as your flex if he has a favourable matchup.  Will I draft him as my RB3?  Probably not.  I’d rather try my luck on a young pass catching Back.  Of course I play PPR (point per reception) leagues so Adrian Peterson’s value is further diminished.

Tomorrow I will highlight another Player from the Top 100 in the 90-81 group.