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Cobe Life 2018 NFL Playoff Predictions Divisional Round

 

Saturday’s Games

Atlanta Falcons at Philadelphia Eagles

Are the Eagles flavoured in this one?  I haven’t actually checked the betting line.  Considering their Season they probably are, but in my opinion they shouldn’t be.  As much as I like Nick Foles, he doesn’t run this offence as effectively as Carson Wentz.  The Eagles have a tonne of weapons at their disposal, but they all suffer a slight decrease in value with Foles under center.  Their Running game is formidable.  The tandem of Jay Ajayi and LeGarrette Blount can pound the rock.  A heavy dose of those two might be the Eagles best path to victory.  The only problem is that the Atlanta Falcons have a lot of speed on Defence.  So don’t expect Blount or Ajayi to break for any long runs.  If the Eagles win this game I would expect the  MVP to be Zach Ertz.  The Atlanta Falcons Defence can at times be a little soft across the middle. If Philadelphia has some success running the ball early.  The Falcons may pull a linebacker up into the box, opening up enough space for a top Tight End like Ertz to exploit the space.  Ertz matches up well against any Linebacker or Safety in single coverage so he could have a huge game.

All that being said, the Atlanta Falcons should really be licking their chops heading into Philadelphia.  At no time last week did they look like they might lose to the Rams.  Matty Ice was definitely in playoff form, and Julio Jones finally found the end zone.  For those of you who are paying attention I predicted a big game from Jones last week.  Losing the way they did in the Superbowl last year.  A Superbowl in which Julio Jones wasn’t targeted nearly enough, and he still had one of the best catches in Superbowl history.  The Falcons have learned their lesson, and leaned on their stars last week.  Well I would expect more of the same in this game.  Ryan, Jones, and Freeman will be expected to earn their pay on Saturday, and I don’t see why they won’t.  The Eagles don’t have a total wrecking ball like Aaron Donald to give Matt Ryan fits.  Fletcher Cox is a handful but he doesn’t possess the every down dominance of Donald.  Matt Ryan should have even more time to go through his progressions, and find the open man.  I expect this to be a very up and down game, but I expect Matt Ryan to be the better clutch performer down the stretch.

Atlanta Falcons by 4

Tennessee Titans at New England Patriots

I have to give credit where credit is due.  The Tennessee Titans beat a Kansas City Chiefs team that was packed full of talent, in their house, and showed late season form.  I didn’t give them a chance to win.  I don’t think anyone except hardcore Titans fans did.  Well congratulations Tennessee!  Enjoy the victory because it was your last.  Lets be honest here.  They will be traveling to Foxborough heavily outmatched.  Once again the New England Patriots have parlayed winning the weakest division in football being the top seed in the AFC, and “earning” themselves the easiest path to the Superbowl.  The Patriots key to victory is simple.  Protect Tom Brady so that he can effectively deliver the ball.  That’s been their plan all Season long.  They have an amazing offensive line, and to make matters worse for opposing teams utilize their Running Backs as quick toss receivers better than any other team.  That means that you have very little time to get to Tom Brady before he becomes an ineligible target.  It’s so frustrating for opposing Defensive Ends, and Linebackers that Brady draws a lot of roughing the passer penalties for late hits.  Now given all that can the Tennessee Titans get to Brady?  Shit no!  If you actually think that they can you’re deluded, or from Tennessee.  This game could end up being so lopsided that I might tune out at half-time.  Although there could be some garbage time heroics.

New England Patriots by 13

Sunday’s Games

Jacksonville Jaguars at Pittsburgh Steelers

You can almost taste the anticipation.  The Jacksonville Jaguars scrambled their way to their first playoff win in what feels like forever last week.  That earned them a trip to Pittsburgh home of the terrible towel to face a team they embarrassed earlier this Season.  You don’t need to be a fan of either team to know that they intercepted Ben Roethlisberger five times (two for touchdowns) the last time they played.  People were questioning whether Roethlisberger should consider retirement after that beating.  Well he didn’t retire, and if not for another controversial call that went the Patriots way again.  The Steelers would be playing the lowly Titans this week instead.  Obviously the Steelers are favoured, and despite what happened earlier in the Season they should be.  For the Steelers to win this game they only need to limit their mistakes.  So I expect a heavy dose of Le’Veon Bell in this game.  Allowing Ben Roethlisberger to get the ball out of his hands quickly with minimal risk.  Don’t count Antonio Brown out of this game though.  I expect that he will be recovered enough to make a serious impact.  People forget that he isn’t just a deep threat. He gains a lot of his yards after the catch on short passes.  Juju Smith Schuster has the ability to gain chunks of yards after the catch as well.  It’s this combination of quick strike weapons that should keep the Jacksonville Jaguars Defence in check.  Don’t fool yourself though. Big Ben will get sacked. Pittsburgh will be forced into a turnover or two.  This game will be a war.  Jacksonville could have the right tools to get the upset.  Except they don’t!  Bortles threw for a grand total of 87 yards against the Buffalo Bills last week.  That kind of production just won’t do against the high powered Steelers.

Pittsburgh Steelers by 9

New Orleans Saints at Minnesota Vikings

This could very well be the game of the week.  These two teams are pretty evenly  matched on paper.   Of course I’d give the nod to Drew Brees over Case Keenum.  I mean who wouldn’t?  Of course I’d give the advantage to the Vikings Defence over the Saints.  Nobody should think otherwise.  If you are a fan of the Running Back position you are in for a fantastic show.  Mark Ingram, Alvin Kamara, Latavius Murray, and Jerick McKinnon will all have opportunities to showcase their talents in this one.  If I had to pick just one as the Running Back to watch I’d go with Alvin Kamara.  The Vikings are so strong on the Defensive line that I expect Kamara to find the most success receiving passes out of the backfield.  Of all the games this weekend this game has the highest scoring potential because it’s being played in a dome.  The kickers will definitely play a role in deciding who wins, and expect a few deep passes to find their targets.  Of all the games I found this one to be the most difficult to predict.  In that case I have to give the advantage to the home team.

Minnesota Vikings by 3

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Cobe Life 2018 NFL Playoff Predictions

Bet on the Home Team

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This Season it’s particularly difficult to bet against the home team in the first Round.  That’s not to say that the visiting squads don’t have a chance.  Lets take a look at each match, and see where the keys to victory for each team lie.

Buffalo Bills at Jacksonville Jaguars

After an unlikely turn of events the Buffalo Bills find themselves back in the Post Season.  Predicted by most to be irrelevant this Season, the Bills surprised everyone with their exceptional Defensive play, and game breaking performances by LeSean McCoy and Tyrod Taylor.  They will need all three of those elements to be functioning at 100% if they expect to get by Jacksonville.  There lies the issue.  LeSean McCoy will definitely be less than 100% on Sunday.  Without LeSean McCoy at full strength to take some of the pressure off of Tyrod Taylor, the Jacksonville Jaguars’ pass rush will declare open season on the Bills’ QB.  That leaves the Buffalo Bills Defence as their only path to victory.  Their first job will be to contain rookie sensation Leonard Fournette.  If they are able to do that then forcing Blake Bortles into making key mistakes is what it will take to win.

Another surprise team in the Post Season, the Jacksonville Jaguars actually have all the tools necessary to go deep into the Playoffs.  A very strong Defence, a featured Running Back, weapons at all levels of the Offence, and some veteran leadership.  The only knock against them is the inconsistent play of their signal caller Blake Bortles. Don’t make the mistake of dismissing them for that reason.  Quarterbacks have won Superbowls with far worse play than Bortles has showcased this Season.  The old adage is that Defence wins championships.  Well if that is the case then the Jacksonville Jaguars could be on their way to the Superbowl.  In order to beat the Buffalo Bills, all Jacksonville will have to do is limit their mistakes.  Protecting the Ball will be their path to victory.  Fournette is such a Beast of a Running Back that the Bills won’t be able to totally contain him.  I don’t expect this to be a high scoring affair, but I expect Jacksonville to score Touchdowns when they get into the Red zone, and be able to limit the Buffalo Bills to only Field Goals.  In the end I expect that to be the difference.

Jacksonville Jaguars by 6

Tennessee Titans at Kansas City Chiefs

Now here is a match between two teams that are about as difficult to predict how they’ll play, or who will win.  If I were to ask you to describe what type of team the Tennessee Titans are.  What would your answer be?  Are they a hard Running clock control Offence?  Sometimes they are.  Is Mariota an elusive Quarterback that can go downfield and take over a game?  Well he’s done it before, but he’s also a competent game manager.  Their Defence is built to stop the Run but does it?  Honestly figuring out how the Titans might approach this particular game is difficult, and that’s what makes them dangerous.  You just don’t quite know what to expect when you face them.  There is one thing that they lack that the Kansas City Chiefs have plenty of though and that’s…       Star Power

At times this Season the Kansas City Chiefs appeared to be the best team in football.  Then again there were a few games they played this year that made them seem totally disorganized.  Which team will show up at Arrowhead stadium on Saturday remains to be seen.  One thing is for sure.  All eyes will be on Star Players Tyreek Hill, Kareem Hunt, Travis Kelce, and Alex Smith.  Each and every one of those players have proven that they can take over a game.  If just two of them step up Saturday’s game could end up as a blowout.  What Kansas City does best is strike hard and fast when you least expect it.  A delayed draw play to Kareem Hunt can quickly turn into 20+ yards.  A screen pass to Tyreek Hill in a third and long situation can suddenly become a trip to the endzone.  Try to limit the Kansas City Chiefs perimeter Offence, and you end up getting burned by Kelce across the middle.  Oh and just in case you thought you might be able to turn the game into a shootout.  The Kansas City Chiefs Defence is none too shabby either.  In other words the only way I can see the Kansas City Chiefs losing is if they beat themselves.  The thing is they’ve done it quite a few times this Season.  The thing is I don’t see them doing it at home.

Kansas City Chiefs by 10

Atlanta Falcons at Los Angeles Rams

“Embrace the suck” has been the Falcons motto this Season.  Well they’re back in the Post Season after their Superbowl meltdown last year.  There’s no denying that the Atlanta Falcons are excellent on paper.  They have a franchise Quarterback in Matty Ice.  Julio Jones is probably the most physically dominant Wide Receiver in the NFL.  Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman are a potent one two punch at Running Back.  They have veterans at every level of the Defence.  It shouldn’t really be a surprise that they are back in the playoffs.  Then why does it feel that way?  Things just haven’t clicked for the Atlanta Falcons this Season.  Something seems a little off.  Could it be that the team we watched in awe last Season was a total fluke?  I don’t think so.  What I believe is that it’s rare to have all of your Star Players playing to their full potential at the same time.  If the Atlanta Falcons want to win this game it’s going to be in Julio’s hands to do it.  When he has a great game, so does the entire team.  Double covered or not, just throw him the ball.  There aren’t too many Cornerback/Safety tandems that can effectively cover him.  Unfortunately for the Los Angeles Rams they don’t have one of those tandems.

So the Los Angeles Rams are not only in the Post Season, but they are playing at home.  They have who I would consider to be the Offensive Player of the year in Todd Gurley.  Jared Goff is playing like the first pick overall this Season.  The Rams Defence is still the dominant Defence it’s always been, but now gets to play with a lead at times.  5 times this Season they put up 40+ points so you know this Offence can score.  If there’s a weakness it’s whether or not they are ready for the Post Season.  Obviously the Falcons are ready.  They have got to be chomping at the bit to get back to the Superbowl.  This game will come down to who stops who’s Star Player.  Will the Falcons be able to contain Todd Gurley, or will the Rams be able to contain Julio Jones?  As much as I want to see the Rams advance I’m going to go with the experience here.

Atlanta Falcons by 3

Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints

Superman is in the building.  The success of this Season’s Carolina Panthers begins and ends with their charismatic signal caller Cam Newton.  Injuries and inconsistencies have plagued their usually dominant Defence.  This Season the wins came through the strength of Cam’s arm, and at times his legs.  Having Greg Olsen back is a huge boost, but will it be enough?  The Panthers lack a legitimate deep threat to help keep the New Orleans Saints Defence honest.  You can almost guarantee that the Saints will dedicate at least a linebacker to keep close tabs on Cam, and I would expect a few Corner or Safety blitzes as well.  I know I’m supposed to be campaigning on Carolina’s behalf during this paragraph but it’s difficult to do so.  Cam will have to be almost perfect to win this game.

The New Orleans Saints resemble the team that won the Superbowl.  Drew Brees is still one of the Top Quarterbacks in the NFL.  They have the best tandem of Running Backs in football with Mark Ingram, and Alvin Kamara.  Michael Thomas has quietly become one of the Top Wide Receivers in the NFL.  Their Defence which has been their Achilles heel in recent Seasons is playing at a very high level.  Home field advantage is absolutely huge for the Saints.  Losing at home is a rarity for them.  The Superdome is easily in the Top 5 of Home field advantage stadiums.  Player to Player the New Orleans Saints are just better than the Carolina Panthers.  Of all the games this weekend, this is the one I’m most certain of.  It would be a travesty if the Saints lost this game.

New Orleans Saints by 11

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We are the Champions – Sports Fanatics play Fantasy SF-37

Consistency wins

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In both of my featured Fantasy Football leagues the highest average scoring team in the League won the Championship.  All is right in the Fantasy universe.  If you have played Fantasy Football for a few years you will know that that isn’t always the case.  It’s Fantasy Football, so absolutely anything can happen.  What makes the right thing happening so special this Season is that my Grid Warriors team was the highest scoring team in the Gridiron Pros Fantasy Football League.  Which means I have retaken the Championship in my longest running Keeper league.  😁 I managed a fourth place finish in the other feature league.  I lost the semi-final to the eventual Champion Texas Proud.  Trust me when I tell you that it didn’t come as a surprise.  I predicted them to win it all Mid Season.

Top 6 Final standings

Gridiron Pros

True Fanatics

Coming out on top as the eventual Champion this Season was especially special.  There were an unprecedented amount of Star Player injuries, underperforming, and overperforming teams, and amazing rookie seasons.  Who would have predicted that the Jacksonville Jaguars would make the playoffs, and the Dallas Cowboys or Denver Broncos wouldn’t.  Some of the top performing Quarterbacks at the end of the Season were backups at the beginning.  Finishing first this year means you stayed one step ahead of it all.

Dawn of a new age

I hinted in my last Fantasy post that Fantasy Football has been dramatically changed.   For at least the last five Seasons the primary focus of Fantasy drafts have been about Running Backs.  Year after year it seemed like the number of quality Running Backs continuously diminished.  More teams adopted the Running Back by committee approach.  Utilizing two or three Running Backs each and every game.  Reducing the value of each back to fantasy irrelevance.  The NFL has slowly transitioned into a passing league.  Further limiting the value of Running Backs.  Their increased chance of injury coupled with the concussion protocol system means that most of the top Running Backs will miss at least a few games.  If you didn’t draft a quality RB early you were really hoping to get lucky with a backup, or fantasy relevant third down back.  Well next year things are going to be a lot different.  The recent crop of star rookie Running Backs, backups that excelled when given an opportunity, and teams that have switched to a Run heavy offence will dramatically change next Season’s draft.  Coming in to this Season there was only about 10 potential high value Running Backs.  In a 12 team League which I consider to be the most competitive that left very few to go around.  By the time you draft next summer things will be much different.  I can count on at least 20 high quality Running Backs being available in next Season’s draft, and that’s not including Rookies.  If Ezekiel Elliott, Leonard Fournette, and Kareem Hunt haven’t convinced you how important a Rookie Running Back can be to your team then you probably shouldn’t be playing Fantasy Football next Season.  There’s at least another 10 after the first 20 that will be fantasy relevant, and could help you win a Championship.  Gone are the days of the First Round Running Back pick, or you’re in trouble drafts.  With that many quality Running Backs available you can afford to wait until the third Round before you draft your first RB.  It is my belief that the NFL currently has more star power now at every skill position than it’s had in over a decade.  The only skill position that’s at all lacking is Tight End, and it’s the least important in Fantasy.  My Grid Warriors team won this Season with a combination of Charles Clay, Hunter Henry, Eric Ebron, and Austin Hooper.  That’s how unimportant it is.  Due to the wealth of talent there’s only one draft strategy that’s viable in my opinion next Season.

Take the best Player available!

Position picking will be far less important next year than in years previous.  Where I used to be concerned about drafting a Top 10 Running Back in either Round 1 or 2, it won’t matter now.  If you drafted a stud Wide Receiver in Round 3, and when your fourth Round pick comes around there’s another great WR.  Don’t even think twice about it, draft him.  I used to stack my bench with Running Backs in case my first or second rounder went down with an injury.  Trust me when I tell you that I won’t be doing it next year.  There are so many quality backups that I’ll pick one up off the waiver wire when I need one.  Managers would stress over when to draft a Top tier QB.  Well let me be the first to tell you that next Season should have you stress free.  There were so many great QB performances this year that picking one early doesn’t make sense at all.  Next Season should actually be better.  I guarantee that a number of Backup Quarterbacks that were given a chance to strut their stuff will be full time starters on another squad nest Season.  It was already leaning that way the last couple of Seasons.  So much so that I was able to draft Matthew Stafford in the 10th Round this Season as my primary Starter, and used both Tyrod Taylor as a backup early in the Season, and Blake Bortles later in the Season.  Blake Bortles was in my lineup for the Semi-final and Championship games by the way.  Blake Bortles!  As next Season draws closer I’ll go into far more depth about each position, and why drafting the best available is your only option for success.

So don’t forget to subscribe!

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Championship Week – Sports Fanatics play Fantasy SF-36

Then there were two

In both of my featured leagues, one of the teams in the finals was obviously going to make it there.  In the True Fanatics league Texas Proud continued their Season of dominance by knocking me out in the semi-final.  Their final test to cap off a truly great Season with a Championship comes against Raider in the North.  In the Gridiron Pros League my team the Grid Warriors easily made their way into the Championship game.  My opponent beat the Top seed Blitzkrieg in order to earn their spot against me.  For the third time this Season I will face my division rival Swaggy B, but this time it’s for the Championship.  I defeated him easily the first two times but this time won’t be as easy.  I’ll be without the best Fantasy Wide Receiver in the league Antonio Brown because of his injury.  To make matters worse another one of my Top Wide Receivers Davante Adams is in concussion protocol.  Beating Swaggy B won’t be as simple as rolling with the best players in Fantasy.  Matchups will be a key path to victory.

The Championship rosters

Texas Proud

QB – Drew Brees

QB – Philip Rivers

RB – Melvin Gordon

RB – Kareem Hunt

RB – Duke Johnson

WR – Keenan Allen

WR – DeAndre Hopkins

WR – Marqise Lee

WR – Rishard Matthews

WR – Robert Woods

WR – Mohamed Sanu

TE – Travis Kelce

TE – Eric Ebron

Raider in the North

QB – Case Keenum

QB – Andy Dalton

QB – Jameis Winston

RB – LeSean McCoy

RB – Jerick McKinnon

RB – Giovani Bernard

RB – Alfred Morris

WR – Tyreek Hill

WR – Michael Thomas

WR – Cooper Kupp

WR – Devin Funchess

TE – Rob Gronkowski

TE – Tyler Kroft

Grid Warriors

QB – Matthew Stafford

QB – Blake Bortles

RB – Leonard Fournette

RB – Jerick McKinnon

RB – Alvin Kamara

RB – Chris Ivory

WR – Antonio Brown

WR – Davante Adams

WR – Jarvis Landry

WR – Martavis Bryant

TE – Eric Ebron

Swaggy B

QB – Jameis Winston

QB – Jimmy Garoppolo

QB – Dak Prescott

RB – Kenyan Drake

RB – Kareem Hunt

RB – Isaiah Crowell

RB – Peyton Barber

RB – Alex Collins

WR – A.J. Green

WR – Adam Thielen

WR – Tyreek Hill

TE – Evan Engram

Although there are a few similar names amongst the four Championship rosters.  The four rosters have very different strengths and weaknesses.  Of course every team’s roster has gone through major changes over the course of the Season.  What every one of these roster does have in common is a Top 5 RB and a Top 5 WR.  It just goes to show you how important it is to have a balanced roster.

Looking ahead

As the 2017 fantasy Season comes to an end, I’m more excited than I’ve ever been about what’s to come next year. You are probably wondering why.  Things have happened across the league this year that has made draft strategies of the last five years obsolete.  I’ll go into detail in my next post.  For those of you in the Championship game in your leagues, Good Luck!

 

 

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Gridiron Pros Fantasy League Playoff picture – Sports Fanatics play Fantasy SF-35

Wow what a Season!

The final week of the Season determined which team finished first overall.  It determined which two teams would get the first round byes.  It determined who would snatch sixth place.  There was more on the line in the final week than I’ve ever experienced before.

Playoff Team Seedings

1 – Blitzkrieg: 9-4, 1591.26 points

Blitzkrieg had to beat the surging division rival, and last Season’s Champion For Whom the Bell Tolls for to retain their number 1 seed.  If they lost they would have fallen to third place, and had to play a quarter-final match.  Instead they get a well deserved break to try and figure out their roster issues.  They have only averaged 118 points per game over the last three games.  It’s been enough to compete, but is it enough to win a Championship?

2 – Grid Warriors: 8-5, 1770.09 points

All my team does is put up points week after week.  A full 160 total points more than the next closest Team for the Season.  Regular Season dominance doesn’t always mean post Season success though.  Averaging 142 points per game over the last three games is a good sign.  22 points per game better than the next closest Playoff team.  Do I feel confident?  Yes I do.  The only losses I’ve suffered all Season have been to breakout Fantasy performances.  As long as I don’t run into one of those, I will be the Champion.

3 – Pixie’s Pirates: 8-5, 1609.98 points

Pixie’s Pirates were my pick to win the championship at the beginning of the Season.  Injuries made their trip to the playoffs a little more difficult.  Losing David Johnson to injury really opened up opportunities for everyone else.  Their Roster is so stacked that I would consider them to be my most difficult opponent in the Playoffs.  They have only averaged 113 points per game over the last three games.  They would have averaged more but poor starting roster choices have limited their scores.   Starting the right group of Players each week will determine their fate.

4 – Swaggy B: 8-5, 1457.71 points

Swaggy B has pushed me for the Grid Central title all year.  In the end I was able to beat him in our Week 11 match, and that was the difference.  I’m glad that the only way we will meet again this Season is in the final.  Swaggy B is averaging 120 points per game over the last three games.  More importantly their team is fully healthy.  Although I wouldn’t consider them a favourite to win the championship.  They definitely fill the roll of Dark horse.

5 – Because you’re a Lannister: 8-5, 1357.88 points

The results of the Week 13 games hurt Because you’re a Lannister’s final seeding worse than anyone else.  They went from second overall with a first Round bye, to fifth facing a surging Playoff ready Team.  Averaging only 93 points per game over the last three games.  I would be surprised if they advanced past the quarter-finals.  Their only hope to advance is a huge game from LeSean McCoy.  Facing the lowly Colts it’s possible that McCoy could put up 40+ points.

6 – Stoniestars: 6-7, 1466.83 points

Ignore the regular season record.  Stoniestars finished the Season with more total points than Because you’re a Lannister, and Swaggy B.  They are averaging 120 points per game over the last three.  Cobe Life is the only team averaging more.  Their Quarter-finals opponent has made some poor roster choices lately.  Stoniestars looks primed to make a run for the title.  Last Season it took a late surge by For Whom the Bell Tolls for, and a little bit of luck to win the championship.  Are Stoniestars this year’s For Whom the Bell Tolls for?

Quarter-finals

Pixie’s Pirates vs Stoniestars

I just finished describing Stoniestars surging push to make the playoffs.  They are on a three game winning streak.  Well I don’t believe that another Cinderella Season is in the works.  Against any other team I might have picked Stoniestars to win.  Pixie’s Pirates is just way too strong.  I’m guessing that they will make the correct roster decisions, and post the highest scoring total this week.

Winner: Pixie’s Pirates

Swaggy B vs Because you’re a Lannister

Barring any significant injuries to key Players on Swaggy B’s roster.  I don’t think Because you’re a Lannister is packing enough star power to get the win.  This is Fantasy Football, and anything can happen.  I just don’t see the likelihood that everything goes wrong in just one week.

Winner: Swaggy B

 

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True Fanatics League playoff picture – Sports Fanatics play Fantasy SF-34

How it stands

1 – Texas Proud:  11-2, 1638.34 points

Finishing as the Regular Season Champion a full 2 wins ahead of second place.  Texas Proud has put together a dominant Season.  With the most points accumulated by far, and entering the Playoffs averaging 128 points per game over their last three.  The road to the True Fanatics League Championship goes through them.  The combination of key Players from the L.A. Chargers, and Kansas City Chiefs has proven to be a winning combination.  Only one team in the Playoffs have averaged a better score over the last 3 games.  Texas Proud is still my pick to win it all.

2 – Aegon Targaryan: 9-4, 1347.27 points

At 9-4 Aegon Targaryan easily won their division, and earned the first round bye.  Selecting the correct roster each week will be a key component to their continued success.  With the second lowest total points for the Season, and the lowest average points per week over the last three games with 95.  Aegon Targaryan is going to need a little help from the Fantasy Gods to win the championship.  The one real advantage they have going in, is that they wouldn’t face Texas Proud until the final.

3 – Raider in the North: 7-6, 1293.10 points

Raider in the North earned the third place position with a Week 13 win over Cobe Life.  That match would decide who has the unfortunate possibility of facing Texas Proud in the Semi-final.  With the win Raider in the North has the seemingly much easier route to the Championship.  They only need to beat the sixth place team, and then the poorly performing Aegon Targaryan team to reach the finals.  They have averaged 22 points more per game than Aegon Targaryan over the last three games with 117.

4 – Cobe Life: 7-6, 1486.19 points

Losing that game to Raider in the North might be the nail in the coffin.  I was really hoping to avoid having to face Texas Proud until the final.  My team has faired well over the last three weeks, but difficult matches has limited my success.  Cobe Life is averaging 115 points per game over the last three.  If I want to win the championship I’ll need to score better than that.

5 – The Bottom Feeders: 7-6, 1389.31 points

The Bottom Feeders haven’t had the easiest trip to the playoffs.  They’ve had to deal with a lot of adversity all Season.  Losing the final game of the season cost them the easier route to the Championship as well.  They’ve only averaged 108 points per game over the last three.  They are probably looking at their road to the Championship, and wondering what’s the point?  They have to beat the two highest scoring teams in the league just to reach the final.  Still anything is possible.

6 – In Dak we Trust: 6-7, 1347.20 points

So In Dak we Trust has been able to sneak into the playoffs by winning their final game of the regular season.  That’s no small feat considering they had to beat Texas Proud to do it.  That’s right.  Not only did they defeat the number 1 seed.  They have the highest scoring average over the last three weeks with 133.  At this point your Regular Season record doesn’t mean squat.  In Dak we Trust is the hottest team in the True Fanatics League right now.  If it’s all about peaking at the right time.  Then In Dak we Trust might be ready to win the championship.

Quarter-finals

Raider in the North vs In Dak we Trust

Raider in the North was probably happy earning the third place spot.  In doing so though they suffered a costly loss.  Rob Gronkowski let his emotions get the best of him, and it looks like he’ll miss the quarter-final game.  I expect the loss of Gronkowski gives In Dak we Trust a significant advantage.  They will post another high score, and get the win.

Winner: In Dak we Trust

Cobe Life vs The Bottom Feeders

On paper this looks like a very even matchup.  It’s when you look at who’s likely to be unavailable for this match that things become predictable.  Ezekiel Elliot is still serving his suspension.  Zach Ertz has entered concussion protocol, and both Roethlisberger and Cousins have difficult matchups.  It’s an unfortunate situation for The Bottom Feeders, but a bonus for me.  It’s not an easy week for me either, but Cobe Life has  better bench Players.  I believe that will be the difference.

Winner: Cobe Life

Good luck to all of you, and for those of you that didn’t make the playoffs, thanks for a competitive Season.

 

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FANTASY

The Road to Victory – Sports Fanatics play Fantasy SF-33

You could win your Fantasy League if

… you drafted Adam Theilan as a backup Wide Receiver.  Adam Theilan has gone from a boom or bust secondary option to the undisputed number one Wide Receiver in Minnesota.  He has more Fantasy points than A.J. Green, Julio Jones, or Michael Thomas.  Guaranteed he was drafted at least 3 Rounds after any of those Players.  Whoever has them on their Roster got a ridiculous deal.

… you took a chance and drafted Leonard Fournette when the other Managers didn’t trust a Rookie to succeed in Jacksonville.  Fournette has been given every opportunity to succeed.  The Jaguars truly treat him the way a featured Back is meant to be treated.  Lots and lots of carries.  DeMarco Murray, Carlos Hyde, Marshawn Lynch, and Devonta Freeman were all being drafted ahead of him in a lot of Leagues.  He’s out paced them all.

… you have any two skill position Players from the New Orleans Saints on your squad.  It used to be that the Saints Wide Receivers, and Running Backs couldn’t be trusted week to week.  Drew Has a tendency to spread the wealth so to speak.  Well that isn’t the case this year.  Michael Thomas, Ted Ginn, Mark Ingram, and Alvin Kamara are having Fantasy relevant success each and every week.  Of Drew Brees is racking up the Fantasy points as well.  Even the Defence could potentially help you win a few games.

… you waited until the final Round of the draft, and picked up the Jacksonville Jaguars as your Defence.  Man did you score.  Expected to have a relevant Season.  I don’t think anyone, myself included expected the wrecking crew that the Jaguars have become.  Draft after draft I’ve seen Managers reach for the Broncos, Patriots, or Seahawks Defence.  Sure they all have potential.  None of them have the potential for the huge Fantasy games that the Jags have had.  10 Sacks in a single game was enough to make me a believer.

… you snatched Jerick McKinnon off the waiver wire, the second Dalvin Cook went down.  I’m beginning to believe that any Running Back could be a success in Minnesota.  Similar to how affective the Broncos zone blocking Offensive line was in 90s.  What makes McKinnon even more of a threat is his pass catching ability.  In the rare case that a Defensive line closes the Running lanes, McKinnon goes from sharing snaps with Murray to becoming the lead Back.

… you didn’t listen to all of the negative hype around Larry Fitzgerald’s age.  It’s almost like people thought last year was a fluke.  Fitzgerald is like a fine wine.  He only gets better with age.  Especially in PPR formats.  It’s no fluke that he’s about to have back to back 1000+ yard Seasons.  Fantasy is all about opportunity, and opportunity is all about targets.  Since the Arizona Cardinals moved Fitzgerald to the slot, his number of targets have gone nowhere but up.  He recently signed a one year extension to come back next year.  I won’t hesitate to draft him.

… you kept looking for the next breakout Player while others remained passive.  As a result you picked up Ju Ju Smith-Schuster.  What some may have seen as a flash in the pan has become one of the top targets on arguably the Leagues most potent Offence.  Even though the Steelers are yet to have a breakout high scoring game.  It isn’t for a lack of Fantasy scoring.  All it would take is some better Red zone execution, and the Steelers skill Players will take their Fantasy Managers to the Championship.

… your Quarterback is a second year Starter.  Carson Wentz, Jared Goff, and Dak Prescott have kept up with the Fantasy veterans. They might not have the Fantasy points ceilings of Tom Brady, Drew Brees, or Matt Ryan.  Chances are good that they didn’t cost you anywhere near as high a Draft pick as those well known names.  So provided you made a few smart picks in the early Rounds.  Your Fantasy roster should match up well with anyone of these signal callers as your QB.

Categories
FANTASY

Playoff Strategy – Sports Fanatics play Fantasy SF-32

As long as you are in

For the majority of Fantasy Leagues there are only 3 games left until the Playoffs.  With the kind of injury filled, high scoring rookies, and unpredictable Quarterback play we’ve had this season.  There’s a very good chance that a record of 7-6 can get you into the playoffs of your league.  That doesn’t necessarily mean that you had an average Season either.  I expect there to be some powerhouse Fantasy teams at 7-6.  Once you are in the Playoffs, winning is more about selecting the correct Players each week.  Sounds obvious but it isn’t.

The hard choices

During the Regular Season you’ll hear Fantasy analysts constantly tell you to roll with your high draft pick Players.  I’d tell you to avoid overthinking things.  Keep it simple.  If Todd Gurley is on your Fantasy Team just play him.  Well things can be very different in the Playoffs.  What if Todd Gurley is against the division rival Seattle Seahawks?  The Seahawks excel at stopping the run.  If you also have Adrian Peterson on your bench, and he’s facing the San Francisco 49ers.  A team he scorched for over 100 yards earlier in the Season.  The choice should be Adrian Peterson.  His potential ceiling is much higher that week.

Don’t ignore your Defence

Quite a few Fantasy Managers will draft a strong Defence in the 11th or 12th Round, and just roll with them all Season.  Well that’s a fine Strategy during the Regular Season.  In the Playoffs though, things get a little different.  For Managers that already stream Defences you know what I’m talking about.  You want the best possible Defence against the worst possible Offence each week.  I’ll try to hold on to a high waiver position entering the Playoffs so I can grab that Defence that’s playing against a troubled Offence.  This year the teams I’m hoping to take advantage of are the Cleveland Browns, New York Giants, Denver Broncos, and Green Bay Packers.  The Giants Offence is totally hindered by injuries.  The other three teams have serious issues at Quarterback.  Find the right Defence against any of those teams, and they could end up as one of your top 3 scoring Players on your Fantasy Team that week.

Winter is not your friend

Something that I have noticed over the years that so many Fantasy Managers ignore during the Playoffs is the effects of weather on your Fantasy Players.  A little snow can ruin your quick cut Running Back’s day.  Your Quarterback that creates plays by escaping the pocket could be in big trouble if the field is slick.  Their are top tier Wide Receivers that are known to have issues catching balls in the cold.  You need to be aware of these situations.  I know we rarely think about our Kicker’s impact.  Trust me, you will when your Kicker finishes with negative points because you started him against Buffalo during a snow storm.  During the Playoffs I try to start Players who are scheduled to play in a dome, or somewhere down south. I don’t have to worry about a sudden storm, or temperature drop that reduces the chances of having a decent game to below zero.

Add depth

Nobody in the NFL likes to admit this, but there can be some intentionally vicious play in the final few weeks of the NFL Season.  During the Fantasy Playoffs NFL teams will face off that have the potential to face each other again in the upcoming Playoffs.  Statistically the greatest number of injuries happen during the first three weeks of the NFL Season.  The second largest number of injuries happen during the last three weeks of the Regular Season.  The NFL will sugar-coat it by saying that the grueling regular season takes it’s toll, and Players just break down.  Watch the key matchups with Playoff implications, and pay close attention to the late hits, head hunting, and low tackles.  One leg injury, or key Player knocked into concussion protocol could mean the difference between playing for a division Championship, or ending up as a wild card team.  Take a good look at your roster, and figure out which skill position would handicap you the most if a Player went down.  Do yourself a favour, and either pick up a serviceable Player as a backup, or make a trade right now for a potential Starter in case your guy gets injured.  Don’t wait for an injury to happen.  Cause when it does, your Competitors will be far less likely to make a deal.

Good luck in the Playoffs!

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FANTASY Uncategorized

A Season of Injuries – Sports Fanatics play Fantasy SF-31

Somebody call the school nurse

This is beginning to become a serious problem.  Injury has always been a part of football.  Not a week passes without somebody taking a trip to the hospital.  The most susceptible to it are the guys who battle it out in the trenches.  The offensive and defensive linemen.  Losing a Left tackle to injury can have an adverse affect on the Fantasy production of a few Players, but it doesn’t create holes in your roster.  Just like the loss of a starting Middle Linebacker can have a positive affect on opposing Running Backs or Slot Receivers.  Of course it doesn’t affect your roster much, if at all.  This Season has seen a serious increase in the number of Fantasy relevant skill Players going down to injury.  It’s the worst I’ve seen as a Fantasy Football enthusiast.

Fallen Stars

Aaron Rodgers – Considered by many football analysts to be the best player in the NFL today.  The Green Bay Packers looked like a team that could potentially win their division.  Now with Aaron Rodgers lost to injury they could potentially finish last.  The loss of Aaron Rodgers is huge in Fantasy.  In order to have him on your roster.  You would have had to spend a high draft pick on him, while your opponents were snatching up the top Running Backs.  So you didn’t just lose your top QB, but missed on a high end RB as well.  In both of my featured Fantasy Leagues the Manager with Aaron Rodgers on their roster is essentially out of the running.

Deshaun Watson – Watson wasn’t expected to have the kind of immediate fantasy impact he had once he took over the starting job.  So in all likelihood he didn’t cost anyone a high draft pick.  Well except me of course.  I traded away a second round pick for next season to acquire him in my Keeper league.  It’s a major loss for Houston.  They looked like a team that finally had a chance to outscore opponents.  Watson was a great late Round pick, or smart waiver wire acquisition for most.  Unfortunately whatever you gave up to get him is probably worth a lot more now.

David Johnson – The consensus number one pick in Fantasy Football didn’t last long.  There’s still a slim chance he returns from injury to potentially make a difference in your Playoffs.  Really big emphasis on slim though.  In his absence his replacement has actually gained some Fantasy relevance.  If you took a flyer on Adrian Peterson, well lucky you.  For the Manager that drafted David Johnson first overall, well better luck next year.

Odell Beckham Jr – Easily one of the most exciting Wide Receivers in the league.  The loss of OBJ seriously hurts the New York Giants chances of making the playoffs, and whoever drafted him in your league as well.  Predicted to finish the Season as a top 3 Wide Receiver, OBJ definitely left a glaring hole on somebody’s roster.

Julian Edelman – Predicted by most to have another great year.  Especially after his great performance in last year’s Superbowl run.  Edelman didn’t get the opportunity to even play a single game in the regular season.  A huge blow to the defending Champion New England Patriots.  His injury happened late enough in preseason for his injury to start some Fantasy teams on the back foot as well.

Dalvin Cook – Going into this season there were four Rookie Running Backs of particular interest to Fantasy Managers.  Leonard Fournette, Christian McCaffrey, Joe Mixon, and Dalvin Cook.  The two with the most obvious opportunity we’re Fournette and Cook.  Fournette was obvious because the Jaguars spent the fourth overall pick on him.  Cook was obvious because the Vikings let Adrian Peterson go in the off season.  Both of them got off to great starts.  Unfortunately for Cook his season was cut short by injury.  Unfortunately for his Fantasy owners RB depth is getting increasingly shallow in the NFL.

Pierre Garcon – When Garcon went to San Francisco I couldn’t help but see huge PPR potential.  I don’t think I was alone in that.  As a mid to late Round pick Garcon was producing way above his draft position.  Of course all good things come to an end.  So Managers will have to settle for only one WR1 on their rosters.

Backups of backups

I’m actually stunned by some of the Players I’ve had to start, or play against in Fantasy this year.  Orleans Darkwa, Ju Ju Smith-Schuster, Marquise Lee, Cooper Kupp, and Jermaine Kearse have all been Fantasy relevant because of injuries to other players.  The waiver wire has been like prospecting for gold this season.  Every week there’s the potential for another breakout player because of an injury to a star player.  I usually pick up only one or two key Skill Players off waivers each Season.  This year I’m trying to land the next backup, soon to be starter every week.

It’s still Football

The last decade has seen a huge increase in the number of additional rules implemented to protect the safety of the Players.   The reality is that no matter how hard you try.  Football will always be a dangerous game.  Very few injuries ever happened as the result of vicious tackles.  The worst injuries happen by total accident.  Simply planting your foot wrong when trying to make a quick cut can result in a torn Achilles, or ACL.  Outside of being totally lucky, the only true path to victory is roster depth.  That applies to actual NFL teams, or your Fantasy team.

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FANTASY Uncategorized

Fantasy League Week 6 recap – Sports Fanatics play Fantasy SF-28

The hot teams

At the half way point of the regular season, certain teams have made the necessary adjustments to separate themselves from the pack.  Beginning with the True Fanatics League.  Texas Proud has continued to roll relying on the strength of their two top Tier Running Backs Kareem Hunt and Melvin Gordon.  Currently undefeated they still maintain their number 1 position, and are definitely the team to beat.  Two teams that have made a statement recently are Muh Feelins, and Cobe Life.  Both teams are on a two Game winning streak because of key acquisitions.  Much Feelins is taking full advantage of their Tarik Cohen, and Austin Seferian-Jenkins pickups.  Cobe Life has benefitted from their Chris Thompson waiver wire pickup,  and carefully cycling through kickers.

In the Gridiron Pros League the hot teams are Blitzkrieg which comes as no surprise considering how well balanced their roster is.  A surprise addition to the hot teams list is The Losers.  Aggressive acquisitions of Adrian Peterson, Allen Hurns, and Rishard Matthews have quickly turned this team into a playoff contender.  For Whom the Bell Tolls for has also utilized the waiver wire, and Free Agency to go from winless to two straight victories.  Grid North is obviously looking to make a statement.  Luckily for me, my team(Grid Warriors) has been the only upward mover in Grid Central.  My two straight wins while every other team has lost has every team in Grid Central sitting at 3-3.  At this point the Division title is totally up for grabs.  The last three games of the regular season could mean more to this division than the others.

Lets make a deal

A couple key trades happened this week in the Gridiron Pros League.  Both of which involved Grid Central teams.  With the recent group of injuries to Quarterbacks, Team Managers were looking to strengthen their rosters with a new signal caller.  Grid Warriors dealt Tevin Coleman and a high Draft pick to acquire Rookie sensation Deshaun Watson.  With the injury to Aaron Rodgers potentially knocking him out for the remainder of the season.  Skins2 dealt Will Fuller to acquire Marcus Mariota to take over as their starting Quarterback.  It wouldn’t surprise me to see a couple more trades happen before Week 8.  Injuries, and underperforming players are forcing Team Managers to look beyond the waiver wire.  Each trade your opponents make is a trade you may have missed out on.  My only weakness was at Quarterback.  Well after one trade I would consider that position a strength now.  A couple weeks ago I picked RuinRevelation as the team to beat in Grid Central.  Well now I can confidently say that my team is the team to beat in Grid Central.  I have a tough match this week against Pixie’s Pirates, but after that I wouldn’t be surprised if I win enough games to sit on top of my division.

 Added depth

I love looking at my starting lineup, and seeing that it has no weakness.  Nothing makes you feel more confident before a game.  I still look at my bench though.  If my bench is full of Players I wouldn’t even consider starting.  I begin to wonder what will happen to my Season if even one star gets hurt.  This is why you should never get complacent in Fantasy Football.  Injuries have a far greater impact in Fantasy Football than any other Fantasy Sport.  If a star Player misses even 4 games.  That’s the equivalent of a third of most Fantasy Football regular seasons.  If you can pickup a surging Player off the waiver wire for even 3 games.  That could be the extra points you needed to make the Playoffs.  Something I’ve noticed playing Fantasy Football year after year is the lack of attention Free Agents get.  Once waivers have cleared it’s open season on whatever Players are left unclaimed.  Quite often I’m able to find great Players available for free because they happen to be on a bye week.  It doesn’t hurt to take a look every Thursday to see what’s available.

Competitive Leagues

At the beginning of every Fantasy Football year the same thought crosses my mind.  I hope that no matter what happens every Manager remains interested and competitive.  So far this year every Fantasy League I’m in has been very competitive.  The real test begins around Week 9.  It’s possible to be practically eliminated from the Playoffs at that time.  Well so what.  Do your League a favour and play spoiler.  When I know that I’m going to miss the Playoffs.  My goal is to take another team down with me.  That’s how rivalries are made.