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Sports Fanatics play Fantasy SF-15 Running Backs

Top 8 Running Backs

Most Seasons selecting the Top 8 Running Backs is easy.  This year, not so much.  The Running Back position has dramatically changed over the last decade.  For the most part the requirements they need to become a fantasy stud have remained the same.  A workhorse Back who gets 250+ touches. The ability to run & catch. A favourable offensive scheme.  Last but not least, durability.  Those requirements used to be commonplace.  That’s not the case any more.  Although there has been a resurgence of featured Backs in the NFL.  I’ll divide my Top eight Running Backs into two groups. The first group consists of my Top 4.

David Johnson

David Johnson is the real deal.  Strictly based on talent alone.  It’s hard to argue against him being the best.  Remove David Johnson from the equation, and I can’t even imagine what the Arizona Cardinals offence would look like.  He definitely fits the fantasy stud requirements.  He went over 2000 yards of total offence last year.  That includes 80 receptions.  That’s more than most Receivers!  In David Johnson you essentially get a Running Back, and a Wide Receiver with a single pick.  There’s only one other Running Back in the NFL that can offer you the same.

Le’Veon Bell

In a suspension shortened Season.  Le’Veon Bell had 261 carries, with another 75 receptions.  Had he played a full Season he would probably have eclipsed David Johnson’s combined total.  Where David Johnson is Arizona’s first, second, and third option on offence.  Le’Veon Bell is sharing the field with Antonio Brown, Martavis Bryant, and Eli Rogers on one of the leagues most potent offences.  Touchdowns can go to any one of those Players.  So predicting Bell’s Fantasy production from week to week is a gamble.

Ezekiel Elliot

Ezekiel Elliot had a ridiculous rookie Season.  322 carries for 1631 yards!  He only caught 32 receptions for another 363 yards, but who cares.  Oh yeah he reached pay dirt 16 times.  Did I say it was ridiculous?  Yeah I did.  So he isn’t built in the traditional fantasy stud Running Back mold.  So what!  His numbers resemble that of another Running Back that still managed to lead Fantasy teams to victory, Adrian Peterson.  When you can just grind out 1600+ yards on the ground, and get the ball across the goal line.  Trust me, that’s all you need.  The only thing that worries me is how long he can handle such a heavy workload?  We saw what it did to Adrian Peterson, and he qualifies as a superhuman in my books.  I’m willing to bet that Zeke can keep grinding out those yards for Dallas for at least a couple more Seasons.

LeSean McCoy

A few years back, if you were to ask me who my favourite Player in Fantasy Football is?   I would have answered LeSean McCoy.   I’ve been running a Keeper league for years.  For at least four of those years LeSean McCoy was one of my Keepers.  It took breakout Seasons from Antonio Brown, and Julio Jones plus the move to Buffalo to finally let him go.  I still wonder if I made the right decision.  McCoy is just special.  If he wasn’t a Buffalo Bill he’d challenge for top honors in the Running Back department.  His health is a bit of an issue also.  At 29 he has used up a lot of tread on those tires.  His Offensive Coordinators  recognized his talent, and were eager to use it.  Although his touches have decreased somewhat over the years.  It’s been because of injuries, not careful utilization of this star Running Back.

Now on to the other four Running Backs of my Top 8.  Any one of these Running Backs could finish in the Top 3 by Seasons end.  They all have the skill, and situation to succeed.

Devonta Freeman

It would probably come as a surprise to most.  Devonta Freeman is the NFL’s highest paid Running Back.  No way, you’ve got to be kidding right!  Well I’m not, and you know what?  He deserves it!  At only 25 years old his last two Seasons had 1500+ total yards, over 1000 of those rushing, and at least 13 touchdowns.  Keep in mind that those numbers are with Tevin Coleman on the roster getting touches, and touchdowns.  In other words Freeman doesn’t need to completely carry the load like the previous Running Backs on this list.  He’s on one of the most dynamic offences in the league, and fits the scheme perfectly.  Atlanta will be looking to get back to the Superbowl, and recognizing that Freeman is a key piece was the first step.  I wouldn’t worry about a decrease in performance because he got paid.  I actually expect Atlanta to use him more to get their moneys worth.

Melvin Gordon

Melvin Gordon finally showed the ability his high draft price demanded of him last year.  In fairness it was his first Season as the undisputed lead Back for the Chargers.  That might have been all he needed to free up his conscience, and just focus on the job at hand.  If the Chargers are going to get back to having some success in the AFC West.  They are going to need to be able to establish a good Running Game.  Philip Rivers has to face a murderers row of Pass Rushers in that Division.  In order to keep those Defences honest they will have to run the ball, a lot.  Sounds like a perfect situation for Gordon right.  Well it could be.  The Chargers just need to learn how to get out to a lead.  Otherwise Gordon’s opportunities could be limited.

DeMarco Murray

Another workhorse Back who gets the majority of the touches on the Offence.  The risk here is his health.  DeMarco Murray has a history of injuries.  He’s been relatively healthy the last few Seasons, but with such a heavy workload.  It feels like his next carry could be his last.  If he can avoid the injury bug, then Murray is in the perfect situation in Tennessee.  He is the key to the offence.  Whether it’s running through defenders, or catching balls out of the backfield.  Murray has transformed the Titans from an up and coming franchise to a real contender in their division.

Leonard Fournette

I hate doing this.  I hate including Rookies in my Top 8 lists.  Of course I did it last year, and that worked out.  So maybe this will become a habit.  First of all Fournette is a beast.  He had 300 carries in only 12 games in 2015.  He only played in 7 games in 2016 due to injury.  That’s probably a blessing in disguise for the Jacksonville Jaguars, because he will begin this Season fresh.  There has been a lot of speculation about how high his ceiling is on the struggling Jaguars.  Well those same Jaguars were struggling when Maurice Jones Drew was there, and his numbers were relevant.  If you are hoping for Ezekiel Elliot type numbers.  Just prepare to be disappointed.  I don’t expect Fournette to have to carry the Offence on his back.  I see him as more of a short yardage, and goal line Back.  He’ll also get plenty of first down opportunities to establish the run, and wear down Defences.  The addition of Fournette just makes the Jaguars’ Offence better.  They might finish the Season as a losing franchise, but it won’t be for a lack of scoring.  You can be sure that Fournette will get his fair share.

 

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Sports Fanatics play Fantasy SF-15 Injuries already!

Injuries with a Fantasy impact before the first game of Preseason.

If there’s one thing I truly hate.  It’s injuries to key Players before they’ve even played a snap.  It’s the beginning of August, and the first Preseason game is yet to be played.  I have already spent some time adjusting my draft board more than once.  Thankfully my Keeper league team has yet to be affected.  Can’t say the same for a couple of my Competitors though. 😁 These are the injuries that could seriously effect your Fantasy team.

Andrew Luck

There has been a lot of speculation about Andrew Luck as he prepares to return from off season shoulder surgery.   The one thing that is for sure is that the original time line was incorrectly optimistic.  As of right now, Andrew Luck’s return is totally unknown.  It could be before the final game of the Preseason, or it could be against Jacksonville in Week 7.  Not knowing when he will return is worse than knowing he won’t be available until Week 7.  As a Fantasy Manager you can make the necessary adjustments to your draft grades if you know.  What makes matters worse is that Luck is the key to the Colts offence.  If he misses any significant time then you will need to adjust your values for a number of Players.  Is T.Y. Hilton a Top 10 Wide Receiver if Andrew Luck isn’t throwing him the ball?  He isn’t to me.  Donte Moncrief, whom I consider a potential breakout Player.  He becomes a Player I wouldn’t even consider drafting unless he fell into the final Rounds of a draft.  Do you think Scott Tolzien can keep Defences honest enough to avoid having the box stacked against the run?  I sure as hell don’t.  Frank Gore is a great workhorse Back.  Asking him to produce against a stacked box is too much though.  Every one of these Players goes from being a Fantasy staple to a complete gamble.

Kenneth Dixon

So in this case we know what the final diagnosis is.  Kenneth Dixon is done for the Season.  Hopefully you aren’t in one of those ridiculous leagues that drafts in July, and picked Dixon.  If you are, well sorry about your luck.  If you are like the majority of us, and have yet to draft.  Then Dixon going down has opened up some interesting possibilities on the Fantasy front.  The Ravens weren’t going to have a bell cow Running Back.  With Dixon out for the Season two Running Backs are likely to see a greater number of touches.  Who benefits most will depend on the play calling.  I believe that Terrance West will gain the majority of touches in Dixon’s absence.  This year will be his opportunity to prove to the Ravens, and the rest of the league that he can be a lead Back.  Danny Woodhead’s value doesn’t change much.  He will still serve as a change of pace, or third down pass catching Running Back.  He will gain a few additional snaps, but not enough to really affect his draft position.  As always Woodhead comes with a lot of injury risk, and that will always push him deeper into drafts.

Will Fuller

A couple Seasons ago DeAndre Hopkins was a Top 5 Wide Receiver.  Last Season he was supposed to back it up with another great Season.  That never happened.  There was a couple of reasons for his decline.  The first was incredibly terrible Quarterback play.  The second reason was the immediate impact of the Houston Texans first Round pick out of Notre Dame Will Fuller.  It’s not like Fuller is challenging Hopkins for the number 1 Wide Receiver position.  He isn’t nearly as talented as DeAndre Hopkins.  What he is though is incredibly fast.  His ability to burn opposing Defences deep can come in handy in close games.  With one of the Top Defences in the league it only took one big play to win games.  Well Will Fuller busted his Collar Bone today.  Which means to Fantasy Managers that he won’t see the field until some time in October at the earliest.  What does this mean for the rest of the Fantasy roster in Houston?  One thing is for sure, DeAndre Hopkins goes back to being the only real threat at Wide Receiver.  C.J. Fiedorowicz will be counted on to handle an increased work load.  The real benefactor here though is Lamar Miller.  Houston’s best chance of winning close games is to control the clock, and run the ball.

These are just a few of the early injuries.  Pay close attention during Preseason, and adjust your draft boards accordingly.  Trust me the injury bug is far from done.

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Sports Fanatics play Fantasy SF-14

Three Wide Receivers that could make or break your Draft.

What makes one Fantasy team more successful than another?  I can tell you that it isn’t decided by the Players you picked in the first three Rounds.   Excluding injury, Players picked in the first three Rounds will definitely perform.  The real difference between a good, or bad team is determined by your mid Round picks.  In a 12 Team league the Players picked between the fifth and tenth Rounds will ultimately determine how strong your Team will be.   In this Post I will discuss three Wide Receivers that should be drafted in the middle Rounds that could be the difference for your Team.

Donte Moncrief

In my opinion all it would take for Moncrief to have a breakout Season is for things to go right in Indianapolis for once.  Moncrief has yet to start a full Season with Luck at the helm.  When they have shared the field together it’s been Fantasy gold.  All appears to be right in Indianapolis at this time.  Andrew Luck appears to be in good shape,. Donte Moncrief also appears to be in great shape as well.  Considering the Indianapolis Colts pass heavy attack.  The fact that T. Y. Hilton will draw the Defence towards his side of the field. Donte Moncrief might finally find himself in that sweet spot he was drafted for.  It wouldn’t surprise me in the slightest if he finishes the Season with double digit touchdowns.  In fact I expect it.  This is the year for the Luck-Moncrief-Colts perfect storm to happen.

Martavis Bryant

Every time I see Martavis Bryant’s name I get a little upset.  The reason I get upset is because I’ve had Antonio Brown as one of my Keepers in my most competitive league.  2014 was the worst.  You wouldn’t even notice he was on the field during most Pittsburgh drives.  Then they would get within striking distance of the end zone.  A seven play drive would  include three passes to Antonio Brown for a total of 39 yards.  That’s 6.9 points in my league.  Martavis Bryant’s stat line during that same drive.  One catch for 18 yards, and a touchdown.  That’s 8.8 points in my league.  I wanted to strangle the guy.  It seemed like he was using a jar of stickum as well.  He just never seemed to drop a ball.  Especially in the end zone.  That’s why with Ben Roethlisberger back at the helm, and entering this Season healthy.  I believe that passing on Martavis Bryant is a mistake.  People will argue that Pittsburgh has too many mouths to feed.  I wouldn’t worry about that.  Bryant doesn’t worry about getting lots of looks in a game.  The only time Roethlisberger looks his way is in the Red zone.  That’s good enough for him, so it’s good enough for me as well.

Jamison Crowder

Jamison Crowder enters the all important third year with the Washington Redskins as their most veteran Receiver.  That’s right, Pierre Garcon, and DeSean Jackson left to sign with new Teams in the off season.  He will be competing for targets with Wide Receivers Josh Doctson, and Terrelle Pryor.  Doctson has only played two games in the NFL due to injury, and Pryor showed big play capability in Cleveland last year.  Kirk Cousins two most familiar targets to start the Season will be Jamison Crowder, and Jordan Reed.  Due to their comfort level, and familiarity with the offence. I would expect Crowder to get the Lion’s share of the short to intermediate route passes the first few games.  If he can build off the success he had last year in those first few games.  I would expect Cousins to treat him as his go-to option for the majority of the Season.  Over 2000 yards, and 7 touchdowns has left the stadium in Washington.  Somebody has to pick up the slack.  Obviously it won’t all go to Terrelle Pryor.  Sounds like the perfect situation for Jamison Crowder to break 1000 yards receiving with double digit touchdowns.

If you think I’m wrong, or living on cloud nine.  Let me know in the comments.  If you are interested in winning your league this year?

Take my Advice

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Sports Fanatics play Fantasy SF-13 QB Draft

Drafting a Quarterback

Choosing when to draft a Quarterback is one of the most important decisions you will make.  The top Running Backs will be off the board within the first two rounds.  After they’re all gone second, and third tier Running Backs are plentiful.  Other than a handful of marquee Wide Receivers.  There are plenty of useful options at Wide Receiver that can be had all the way through your draft.  The Tight End position even simpler.  Outside of taking Gronkowski early.  The difference in quality between the majority of Tight Ends is insignificant.

Things are far different when comparing Quarterbacks.  The difference in fantasy production from tier to tier is far greater.  A top tier Quarterback can earn you an extra five to ten fantasy points over your opponent if they have a third tier Quarterback.  In a twelve team league at least a third of the teams will have a third tier Quarterback.  This is a disadvantage that you shouldn’t take lightly.

When preparing for your draft it’s important to pay attention to which teams are in your division.  Many leagues including mine automatically get you into the playoffs if you win your division.  My leagues are twelve teams with three divisions.  You play each team in your division twice.  Obviously how my team performs against my division rivals is extremely important.  So how do I make sure my team keeps pace?  I pay close attention to who my division rivals are picking during the draft.  This is especially true when deciding when to draft my Quarterback.  Lets say my plan going into the draft is to pick a Quarterback with big play potential like Eli Manning, or Carson Palmer.  Third tier Quarterbacks with an eighth Round value in my opinion.  This allows me to top load my team with Running Backs and Wide Receivers.  What happens if somebody in my division drafts Aaron Rodgers with their first pick?  Suddenly any Quarterback I pick is at a serious disadvantage against this division rival.  Of course I had previously decided not to waste an early Round pick on the best Quarterback in Fantasy.  I knew somebody was going to take him.  Unfortunately he landed in my division.  Still  I’m not too worried because I got A.J. Green with the 10th pick, and he will be better than any Wide Receiver that Manager drafts.  Fast forward to the third Round, and another Manager in my division picks Tom Brady.  It’s at this point that my original plan suddenly appears sorely insufficient.

Considering that I will have to play each Manager in my division twice.  I’m now faced with a twelve game regular season that includes a third of the season against two of the best Quarterbacks in Fantasy.  Selecting either one of my targeted Quarterbacks would leave me at a major positional disadvantage.  At this point I was forced to adjust my draft Strategy, and target a second tier Quarterback.  I quickly checked the board to see who was available.  I placed all of the second tier Quarterbacks in my queue.  Then I continued to follow my draft Strategy until only two was left.  When my next pick came around there was only one left so I snatched him up.

On a draft Application like nfl.com it’s always a good idea to fill your queue with potential picks.  This is especially true if you aren’t emotionally attached to any specific Player.  For me that means Quarterbacks, and Tight Ends tend to clog up my queue.  I won’t reach for a top tier Quarterback, or Gronkowski.  So who I get at either position just needs to be a competitive Fantasy Player.

To help you decide which Quarterbacks to target going into your draft.  I’ll quickly go over three categories of Quarterbacks I’ve identified.

Top tier Quarterbacks

Aaron Rodgers: honestly Aaron Rodgers could be in a category all by himself.  The most dominant Quarterback in Fantasy Football.  His situation in Green Bay is a Fantasy Manager’s wet dream.  He’s so important to the offence, and so successful.  Green Bay seems disinterested in finding a quality Running Back for him to hand off to.  He’s really the only Quarterback that could be drafted in the first Round.  If you want him on your team you had better be ready to pay up.

Drew Brees: a threat to break 5000 yards passing every single Season.  That about says it right there.  You are practically guaranteed at least 30 touchdowns.  It’s also a benefit to whoever drafts him that the New Orleans Saints Defence couldn’t stop the Toronto Argos from scoring.  Brees finds himself playing from behind all too often.  Getting the ball down field fast, and in to the end zone is a necessity.

Tom Brady: as long as he is healthy,  Tom Brady will continue to put up huge numbers.  As an added bonus the Patriots like to run up the score against weak opponents.  With teams like the Bills, and the Jets in their division.  You are practically guaranteed to get some huge Fantasy weeks out of Brady.

Andrew Luck: Andrew Luck can be considered a borderline top tier/second tier Quarterback.  There’s the concern surrounding his recent shoulder surgery.  There’s also the concern surrounding his offensive line.  If he comes back healthy?   There’s no guarantee that he will remain healthy for long.  If the Offensive line can prevent Luck from looking like he just went 10 rounds with Mike Tyson every game?  Then Andrew Luck could become the Top Quarterback in Fantasy Football.  He’s that good.

Second tier Quarterbacks

Marcus Mariota: he has had a lot of success in Fantasy Football already.  Considering that he hasn’t had top level receiving targets.  His Fantasy numbers are really based on his talent alone.  The Titans rewarded him with three new offensive targets in the Draft.  If even one of them pan out.  Expect Mariota to have a great Season.

Kirk Cousins: another great Season, and what does he get?  One more year under the franchise tag.  He could have accepted a contract that would have made him the second highest paid Quarterback.  Instead he chose to gamble on himself.  If he puts together another great Season.  He stands to become the highest paid Player in the league.  He could also end up at the helm of a true contender.  All of this is music to a Fantasy Manager’s ears.  He lost Pierre Garcon, and DeSean Jackson in the off season.  Honestly though with what is at stake for Cousins.  I’m not worried.

Jameis Winston: not only does he keep improving every year.  The Bucs did him a huge favour by signing DeSean Jackson in the off season.  Read my full Jameis Winston analysis on the Starting from Scratch post SF-7.

Derek Carr: a young talented Quarterback, on one of the most star packed teams.  Sounds like a great situation for success right.  What many people overlook is how a great Defence adds value to their Quarterback.  The more three and outs they get.  The more opportunities their Quarterback will have to earn you points.  Derek Carr will have a great Season.

The last category consists of a group of Quarterbacks that could surprise many people in Fantasy Football.  Matt Ryan’s ridiculous Season last year was an example.

Top 5 potential breakout Quarterbacks

Cam Newton: new offensive Weapons, only one Season removed from an MVP.

Eli Manning: addition of Brandon Marshall makes the Giants Wide Receiver tandem brutally difficult to defend.

Tyrod Taylor: always a threat on his feet, a healthy Sammy Watkins greatly increases his ceiling, needs to prove to the Bills that he’s their future.

Ben Roethlisberger: deep threat Martavis Bryant is back, will have Le’Veon Bell for a full Season.

Andy Dalton: the addition of Joe Mixon and John Ross, a healthy Tyler Eifert, needs to rebound from a statistically poor Season.

Hopefully this will help you put a plan in place to draft the best possible Quarterback.  Even if the unexpected happens in your draft.

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Sports Fanatics play Fantasy SF-12 Le’Veon Bell

The Top 100 highlights

My final selection for the Top 100 highlight series from the 10-1 group is

Le’Veon Bell

Could he be the number 1 pick in your Fantasy draft?  A good case could be made for him to be exactly that.  Should he be the number 1 pick in your Fantasy draft though?  Well that’s something we will need to discuss.

Unless you are a emotionally attached to a particular Player.  The consensus top two picks in Fantasy are David Johnson, and Le’Veon Bell.  Most Fantasy analysts pick David Johnson as their number 1 pick.  And why shouldn’t they.  In his first full Season as the Cardinals Bell cow Back.  David Johnson ran for 1239 yards, caught another 879 yards, and reached the end zone 20 times.  Just ridiculous right!  Well actually it isn’t as ridiculous as it seems.  Consider what Le’Veon Bell achieved in a suspension shortened Season.  1268 yards rushing, with another 616 yards receiving, and 9 touchdowns.  Not too shabby is it?  Project his averages over a full 16 games, and compare again.  Le’Veon Bell’s numbers would have been 1691 yards rushing, with another 821 yards receiving, and 12 touchdowns.    Now the comparison doesn’t look so lopsided in Johnson’s favour does it.  What about the 8 additional touchdowns though right.  Obviously that still makes David Johnson the number 1 pick.  Well lets look at this mathematically.  8 more touchdowns is an additional 48 points in standard scoring formats.  Le’Veon Bell would have finished with an additional 392 yards of offence which is another 39.2 points in standard scoring formats.  If your league provides a bonus for breaking 100 yards rushing or receiving like many do, mine included.  Le’Veon Bell would have had at least 5 more 100 yard bonuses than Johnson.  My league awarded a 3 point bonus last Season.  That’s an additional 15 points.  Add it all up and Le’Veon Bell is your number 1 pick statistically.

Well there you have it.  Le’Veon Bell is your number 1 pick.  Lets hope you get one of the first three picks.  If you don’t get numero uno, then lets hope the other two Managers haven’t read my blog.  Ok hold on a second.  If Fantasy Football was just about the statistical advantage, then why bother playing?

It’s all the intangibles that make Fantasy Football so much fun.  It’s the qualitative advantages that eventually decide who wins, or loses.  For instance is DeAndre Hopkins a better Wide Receiver than Julian Edelman?  Damn right he is.  If you think he isn’t then you’re either a big Patriots fan, or the worst talent scout ever.  Ever!  Statistically though Edelman beat out Hopkins last Season.  Of course that’s what happens when Tom Brady is throwing you the ball instead of Brock Osweiler.  Brady is the qualitative advantage.  So when we look at Le’Veon Bell’s situation versus David Johnson’s.  Johnson has one major advantage over Bell.  It’s not the Quarterback because they both have true veterans feeding them the ball.  They are both on very competitive teams, so they should both get plenty of opportunities in the Red zone.  The difference is in their importance to each teams offensive success.  Remove David Johnson from the roster, and the Arizona Cardinals suddenly look like a losing franchise.  In the four games without Le’Veon Bell last Season, the Steelers went 3-1.  The reason for this is the plethora of offensive Weapons the Steelers are blessed with.  They don’t need to rely on Le’Veon Bell.  Without David Johnson the Arizona Cardinals only proven commodity is Larry Fitzgerald.  This is why you can pretty much guarantee that Johnson will put up a decent amount of Fantasy points every game.  You can’t say the same about Le’Veon Bell.  If Antonio Brown, Martavis Bryant, Eli Rogers, or any one else gets hot then Bell will be hardly used.  When the Steelers get out to a huge lead.  Which they tend to do a few times a Season.  They generally rest Bell, and give his back up a few touches.  That’s a very rare occurrence with David Johnson.  The Cardinals are a Defence first kind of team.  They prefer clock management to total blow outs.  Johnson is the man who winds the clock.  He doesn’t leave the game until the final whistle blows.

So Draft Johnson ahead of Bell then.

Honestly, they are both safe bets.  I’d be totally satisfied with either one.  If I had to pick one I’d go with Bell.  I have a feeling that the Steelers are going to be unstoppable on Offence this year.  As long as Big Ben stays healthy, and I believe he will.  The Steelers are going to score early, and often.  I believe Bell will get even more opportunities to score during the second, and third quarters.  I expect his touchdown numbers to improve.  I predict the opposite for Johnson.  Defences will begin to stack the box against him.  Forcing the aging Carson Palmer to beat them through the air.  Palmer’s interceptions have increased over the years.  I’m sure I’m not the only one who has noticed.  Taking David Johnson out of the equation is how you beat the Cardinals.  Johnson will be hard pressed to equal his touchdown numbers from last year.

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Sports Fanatics play Fantasy SF-11 A.J. Green

The Top 100 highlights

My ninth selection from the Top 100 highlight series from the 20-11 group is

A.J. Green

Take one look at A.J. Green, and it makes complete sense that he is such a successful Wide Receiver.  At six foot four inches tall, and two hundred ten pounds on a long lean frame he’s created to catch balls.  A.J. Green poses a serious problem for Defensive Backs.  If not for missing six games last season due to a hamstring tear.  A.J. Green would have undoubtedly kept his 1000+ yards per season streak alive.  Last season was A.J. Green’s first sub 1000 yards season.  His rapport with Quarterback Andy Dalton has been perfect from the very beginning.  They are truly one of the best Quarterback – Wide Receiver tandems in football.

This off season the Cincinnati Bengals added new offensive weapons John Ross, and Joe Mixon in the draft.  I don’t see A.J. Green losing many targets to either one of them.  Actually the addition of John Ross should stretch the field.  Safety’s will be forced to stay deep to prevent the big play potential of Ross.  Leaving Green with one on one coverage against Cornerbacks on the outside.  A battle that he’s proven time, and again that he can win.

All that being said, what should you expect from him this year?

First of all, I don’t consider A.J. Green to be an injury risk.  The type of injuries he’s had in his career aren’t the kind that lead to repeat issues.  So what I expect from him will be based upon a sixteen game season.  My only concern with his potential production isn’t about him at all.  It’s actually a concern that I have about Andy Dalton.  To be fair, it isn’t with Dalton’s ability.  It’s really with the situation that he finds himself in.  Dalton isn’t a top tier Quarterback.  He’s definitely good enough to get the job done though.  At least if he’s provided with a favourable situation.  The problem with his situation this year is the offensive line.  Starting Tackles Whitworth, and Zeitler bolted for greener pastures in the off season.  Replacing them will be a couple of unproven Players with minimal NFL experience.  If they can’t keep Dalton upright, then A.J. Green’s numbers could suffer.  I suspect that there will be some growing pains.  While the Cincinnati Bengals work through it.  It wouldn’t surprise me if the Bengals switch to a run heavy offence.  Leaning on their trio of talented Running Backs Joe Mixon, Jeremy Hill, and Giovanni Bernard.

Sounds like A.J. Green is falling down my Draft board doesn’t it?  Well he isn’t actually.  My top five Wide Receivers in order from first to fifth are: Julio Jones, Antonio Brown, Odell Beckham Jr, Mike Evans, and A.J. Green.  I project him to get something around 1300 yards receiving, and 9 touchdowns.  If your league provides a bonus for going over 100 yards receiving in a game.  Then get ready to cash in on that bonus as well, if A.J. Green is on your roster.

What I’m trying to tell you is that A.J. Green is a truly great Wide Receiver.  When you are truly great.  Your situation doesn’t really effect you as much.  You just find a way to make plays.  Don’t over think this.  Draft A.J. Green with confidence.

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FANTASY

Sports Fanatics play Fantasy SF-9 DeMarco Murray

The Top 100 highlights

My seventh selection for the Top 100 highlight series from the 40-31 group is

DeMarco Murray

DeMarco Murray’s first year as a Tennessee Titan was definitely a success.  Almost 1300 yards rushing, and 12 touchdowns proved he was a smart acquisition.  Approaching thirty years of age, there are some health concerns.  The Tennessee Titans picked up Derrick Henry in the second round of the 2016 draft as insurance.  Fortunately for Murray, Henry wasn’t really needed last season.  DeMarco Murray has only played a full sixteen game Season twice in his career.  One of those was last season.  Did I mention that Derrick Henry is an absolute beast?  He could be the feature Running Back on quite a few teams.  Instead he gets very few opportunities as DeMarco’s backup.  How long that remains the case is anyone’s guess.

For the time being DeMarco Murray is the key component to the Titan’s offence.  I would expect him to get at least 275 carries, and another 50 catches out of the backfield.  Provided he stays healthy.  Do I expect his production to improve in his second season as a Tennessee Titan?

No I do not.

As I have already mentioned, Murray has only played a full sixteen games twice.  He’s actually been relatively healthy the last three seasons.  I’m just playing the odds.  If the Titans want to keep Murray healthy for the entire season.  That might require them to limit his touches, and give Derrick Henry a larger workload in his second season.  Keep in mind that the Titans begin their Season against some bruising Defences.  Some of the hardest hitters in the league are in those first five games.  It’s so intimidating that I will be targeting Derrick Henry late in every one of my drafts this year.  I also have a feeling that Marcus Mariota will be asked to throw more this year.  The Titans drafted two Wide Receivers (Corey Davis & Taywan Taylor) and a Tight End (Jonnu Smith) in the first three rounds of this year’s draft.  You don’t draft offensive Players that high to have them ride the bench.  Another indication that the Tennessee Titans don’t want to force DeMarco Murray to have to carry the load.  Now if he stays healthy he will finish as a Top 10 Running Back.  That’s a really big if.  Be very careful about when you draft DeMarco Murray.  I’d draft Jordan Howard, Melvin Gordon, or Devonta Freeman before him.  All three of those Running Backs come with serious concerns as well.  I just have a bad feeling about DeMarco Murray.  It’s not that I think he’ll suffer a Season ending injury.  I’m just worried that he will get hurt.  Just enough to give Derrick Henry a real chance to show his potential.  I’m sure Henry is just itching for the opportunity.  It might only take a game or two of evidence before the Running Back situation in Tennessee becomes a time share.

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FANTASY

Sports Fanatics play Fantasy SF-8 Cam Newton

The Top 100 highlights

My sixth selection for the Top 100 highlight series from the 50-41 group is

Cam Newton

Last year Cam Newton made a lot of Fantasy Managers happy for missing their chance to draft him.  He made Fantasy Football analysts like me look like geniuses for telling you to take a pass on him.  He flat out lost Fantasy Managers that drafted him any chance of winning their Fantasy league.  He followed up his MVP year with what most people would consider a relatively poor season.  24 touchdowns with 14 interceptions is poor by any standard.  Matt Stafford wiped the floor with him in Fantasy last year.  You could probably have drafted Stafford 6 rounds after Newton in last year’s draft.

There’s no disputing Cam Newton’s skill, and athletic ability.  Last season he was far from being the Superman he claims to be though.  After watching Von Miller toss him around in Superbowl 50.  I expected a bit of a Superbowl hangover.  I warned people that drafting him based on his MVP year stats was a mistake.  I predicted 4000 total yards, with 29 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions.  In other words I actually thought he would have a better year than he ended up with.  Most people thought my predictions were somewhat harsh.  In the end I was being generous.

So where does it leave us this season?

First of all there won’t be anyone except the most die hard Panthers fan eagerly waiting to draft Cam Newton in the first or second round.  Realistically there are at least seven Quarterbacks that will probably get drafted before Cam Newton.  Should you be the Fantasy Manager that picks him as the eighth QB off the board?

Damn right you should!

Carolina is about to steal a page out of the New England Patriots playbook.  Carolina is looking to become an up tempo offence.  Tom Brady, and Cam Newton have something in common.  They are both ineffective when they get hit.  It disrupts their timing, and effects their decision making process on future throws in the game.  New England successfully minimized this weakness by creating an offence full of quick slants, quick outs, swing passes to the Running Backs, and a balanced Attack.  With the talents of Kelvin Behjamin, Devin Funchess, Johnathan Stewart, Greg Olsen, and Rookies Christian McCaffrey and Curtis Samuel on the roster.  The Carolina Panthers have the necessary pieces to create a quick strike offence.  Cam Newton is by no means guaranteed to thrive in a system that suits Tom Brady.  Then again he adds an additional dimension that Tom Brady won’t ever have.  Cam Newton has proven that he is a formidable threat in the running game.  Now don’t expect him to run for 10 touchdowns in a season again.  That’s probably never going to happen.  Keeping Cam Newton healthy is just too important to the Carolina Panthers to provide him with enough opportunities to find the end zone that many times.  Another 5 rushing touchdowns isn’t out of the question though.  Do you know how many times Tom Brady has rushed for 5 touchdowns in a season?  The answer is never.  Carolina used to rely on it’s Defence to grind out victories against their division rivals.  Those days are over.  They face some of the highest scoring Offences in their division.  If they want to win the NFC South they will need to score a lot of points.  Whether they are able to become an offensive force begins and ends with Cam Newton.  I expect his touchdown numbers to improve over last year.  I expect his passing yards to be much closer to his 2015 total.  Add another season of at least 300 yards rushing, and you have the makings of a top ten Quarterback.

If I am projecting him to just squeak his way into the top 10.  Then why am I encouraging you to draft him as the eighth Quarterback off the board?  Why not wait to try and draft an undervalued QB that’s overlooked later?  It’s all about his potential.  Don’t forget he’s only one season removed from being the MVP.  Cam Newton’s ceiling is ridiculously high.  He is the NFL’s Superman when he wants to be.

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FANTASY

Sports Fanatics play Fantasy SF-7 Jameis Winston

Top 100 highlights

My fifth selection for the Top 100 highlight series from the 60-51 group is

Jameis Winston

Since entering the league Winston has managed to post back to back 4000 passing yard seasons.  His Fantasy numbers last season were better than Brady’s.  Keep in mind that Brady played four fewer games before you get too excited.  One category he definitely exceeded Brady in was total number of interceptions unfortunately.  Jameis Winston threw 18 interceptions last season.  When you compare that to only two for Brady, it’s obviously a problem.  If your Fantasy league penalizes Quarterbacks the usual -2 points for an interception.  Then Jameis Winston flushed an additional 32 points more than Brady down the drain.

Should that be enough to keep you from drafting Jameis Winston?

It’s obvious that the Tampa Bay Buccaneers believe in there number one overall draft pick.  All they’ve done is surround him with talented offensive targets.  Any quarterback in the league would be happy to have the group of skill Players at Winston’s disposal.  Cameron Brate, and O.J. Howard to create mismatches across the middle.  A true WR1 in Mike Evans that most people including me would consider a top 5 Wide Receiver in Fantasy football.  Now you can add DeSean Jackson to the mix. He now provides Jameis Winston with the deep threat he was lacking.  Do I see another 4000 yard season in Jameis Winston’s future?  You don’t need a crystal ball to figure out that the answer is yes.

The Bucs weren’t able to effectively stretch Defences last year.  As a result of that Jameis Winston was forced to throw in to some really tight windows.  It’s no wonder he racked up 18 interceptions.  With the addition of DeSean Jackson Defences won’t be able to simply clog up the first 15 yards beyond the line of scrimmage.  The Tight Ends will have more room across the middle, and Evans shouldn’t face as many double coverages.  The real benefactor here is Jameis Winston.  He won’t be forced to place every throw just perfect, or make as many risky throws.

Now is Jameis Winston a top tier Fantasy QB you should target in your draft?  Well that’s going to depend on what type of QB you are after, and which round you intend to draft them?  If the Quarterback position is something you place a great deal of importance in.  Then grabbing Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, Tom Brady, or Andrew Luck early makes sense.  If you would prefer to wait until later in the draft to pick up a consistent trustworthy signal caller.  Then grab Russell Wilson, Kirk Cousins, or Philip Rivers to play it safe.  Now if you’re like me.  You’ll want a Quarterback on your roster that has the potential to have Boom or bust weeks.   You can probably hold off for a bit and pull the trigger a little later to get Jameis Winston, Cam Newton, or Tyrod Taylor.  Each of these Quarterbacks have the ability to take over a game, and put up huge Fantasy numbers on any given week.  They also have the occasional flop.  Hopefully you are able to draft them late enough that their flop weeks are offset by the amazing Running Backs, and Wide Receivers you drafted earlier.

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FANTASY

Sports Fanatics play Fantasy SF-6 Jay Ajayi

The top 100 highlights

My fourth selection for the Top 100 highlight series from the 70-61 group is

Jay Ajayi

Ajayi began last season as a mid to late round flyer of a draft pick.  By mid season he was a definite RB2 with breakout game potential.  By season’s end he was statistically a true fantasy RB1.  It wasn’t like Ajayi wasn’t on people’s radar during draft time.  He showed flashes of what he could become briefly in 2015.  Then with Lamar Miller gone in 2016 the door was open for him to become the man.  It just took him a little longer to turn the handle and step on through.  By the end of the preseason when most Fantasy drafts occur.  He really hadn’t performed well enough to give Fantasy team Managers any real idea of what to expect.  He finished the season with almost 1300 rushing yards.  I don’t think anyone expected that, including the Miami Dolphins.  Well you can be certain that nobody will be sleeping on Jay Ajayi this year.

Jay Ajayi finished last season as a legitimate Fantasy RB1.  What can we actually expect to get from him this year?  Much of the same my friends.  Much of the same, and possibly even a little bit better.  You can go out and bet the farm that Adam Gase will involve Ajayi even more this year.  Every indication is that Ajayi is eager, and ready to become Miami’s bell cow Back.  Something there are very few of in today’s NFL.  Running Backs thrive in an Adam Gase system.  Even average Running Backs put up good numbers.  Ajayi’s three 200+ yard games last season are evidence enough that he is way better than average.  It took about a quarter of the season before Miami fully involved him last year.  That won’t be the case this year.  Ryan Tannehill’s further development, and increased level of confidence after making the playoffs last year.  That can only help keep the opposing Defence honest, and Ajayi should find plenty of running room.  Playing against the Buffalo Bills twice during the Fantasy playoffs has got to have Fantasy Managers just drooling.  Keep in mind that two of the three games Ajayi rushed for over 200 yards came against the Bills last year.

I must sound like the president of the Jay Ajayi fan club right about now.  To clarify, drafting Ajayi does come with a few concerns.  First of all the sample size of actual NFL experience is just too small.  Remove the three 200+ yard games from last year’s stats.  Ajayi only averaged 54 yards per game, and one touchdown for every three games played.  Average that over a 16 game season, and your final stat line would be, 864 yards rushing with 5 touchdowns.  That doesn’t sound like an RB1 to me.  Now how eager are you itching to draft him?

What I believe is that Jay Ajayi finished what was statistically a very good season last year.  In spite of being improperly utilized for most of the season during a transitional year for the team.  I don’t think Adam Gase will overlook Ajayi this year, and that the Miami Dolphins will be fully prepared to start the season.  If you draft Jay Ajayi as your RB1 you should be fine.  If somehow you are able to draft him as your RB2 then obviously you scored a great draft position.  Either way you are in good shape if Jay Ajayi is on your Fantasy team.