Tag: Fantasy Football

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THE AFC EAST CONSPIRACY

Sure it’s a sport, but it’s also a business

So another NFL Season is in the books, and to no one’s surprise the New England Patriots have won the Superbowl… Again. Chants of them being the greatest dynasty ever, Belichick a coaching genius, and Brady as the goat can be heard in every sports bar. Seems like the second you begin to doubt their dominance, they suddenly get that much better. The truth of the matter is that the sudden performance increase has nothing to do with the Patriots themselves. It has everything to do with their competition.

Last Season the sudden increase in performance began in Week 12 after their Bye Week. The final six weeks of the Season they would face AFC East rivals 4 times. They would go on to win three of those games, and lose to the Pittsburgh Steelers, but beat the Minnesota Vikings. This would prove to be just enough to earn them the Bye going into the playoffs. If you are at all like me, you might be wondering how the New England Patriots have easily defeated their division rivals for a decade? This has always puzzled me. How can an NFL franchise be so inept at developing a team that’s competitive for ten years? A friend of mine, and I were discussing this the other day, and he had an interesting theory.

Maybe the Buffalo Bills, Miami Dolphins, and New York Jets have accepted that the cost to build a team that can challenge the Belichick/Brady combination is just too costly. Why spend the money to acquire quality free agents, or sign your star players to long lucrative contracts. If all you will get back in return is a slim chance to make it into the playoffs as a Wild Card team. Probably the most obvious attempt to have a losing Season came when the Buffalo Bills didn’t keep Tyrod Taylor as their starting Quarterback. The Player who stepped up, and practically willed his team into the Playoffs. In the end it’s possible The Buffalo Bills saw that as an unfortunate loss of Draft capital.

Remember this is just a theory

There have been other Teams, or individuals that have had to deal with this same conundrum. Imagine how F1 Drivers for Williams felt when Michael Schumacher was driving for Ferrari. How do you think Ernie Els felt when Tiger Woods was at the top of his game? Imagine being a Player for the Utah Jazz during Michael Jordan’s run? Would you have spent millions of dollars to marginally improve an individual or teams chances to defeat any of them? The answer is probably not. What’s even more difficult when it comes to the situation in the NFL AFC East, is that in order to unseat the Patriots as favourites. You would have to not only improve your own team, but expect the other teams in the Division to do so as well. It doesn’t help to split your Season series with the New England Patriots if they can just steam roll the other two teams for four wins.

So what is a Franchise Owner to do?

The answer might be to play the long game. How many more years will The Patriots have their Star Power? Will Brady play three more years? Maybe, but I honestly doubt it. What does he have left to play for? He now owns more Superbowl rings than any other Player in NFL history. He is a multiple winner of the League MVP award. He’s over 40, and although the league keeps making it safer for Quarterbacks it only takes one awkward hit to get seriously injured. One of Tom Brady’s favourite targets won’t be around much longer. If Gronkowski doesn’t call it quits this Season, he probably won’t be around for the next one. Who’s willing to bet that if Brady retires, then Belichick will call it quits right after. I’ll make that bet right now. Lets assume that all three are gone in three Seasons. If that’s the case then drafting Quarterbacks that require a bit of coaching up like say Josh Allen, and Sam Darnold seems like a great idea. While they are developing you probably won’t post too many winning Seasons, and you can build a strong group of skill Players around them through the Draft. If they don’t pan out in time, then you should have a lot of Cap space to go out and get a Playoff ready Quarterback in Free Agency.

The point is that when the time comes you’ll be ready, and you won’t have wasted too much money getting there. For fans of these three storied Franchises that can remember what it was like to have Powerhouse teams lead by the likes of Joe Namath, Dan Marino, and Jim Kelly it can’t be easy watching them lose year after year. All I can say to them is that there is light at the end of the tunnel. For the first time in a long time you can begin to see it.

OF COURSE THIS IS JUST A THEORY

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Why I love Keeper Leagues – Sports Fanatics play Fantasy SF-49

Player Appreciation

I’ve been playing Fantasy Football from the very beginning of it’s development.  I always enjoyed it, but it wasn’t until the advent of Keeper Leagues that it became a true love of mine.  Being a part of a league that allows you to retain a couple players from season to season provides you with a small taste of what it feels like to be a general manager in the NFL.  How long do you continue to keep that Star Player that’s done so well for you year after year?  When is it time to let go, and grab a young hungry player with talent looking to make a name for themselves?  What if your Star Player gets hurt and misses the second half of the season?  Do you trust that he will come back healthy, or do you trade him while there’s still some Managers willing to gamble?  These are all questions that you will have to answer at some point if you are in a Keeper League.

Draft Pick Value

Another key aspect to Keeper Leagues that make them far more appealing to me is the ability to trade Draft Picks.  Each year leading up to the Fantasy Football Season you can find loads of information on the perceived Draft Value of each Player.  What you won’t find is how much each of your future Draft Picks could be worth during the Regular Season.  This makes understanding how many Star Players are about to enter the NFL at each Fantasy relevant position next Season.  It’s also important to know how many top level Fantasy Football Players there are in the League.  To make it easier to understand why I’ll provide you with an example.

Lets assume that there will be one Star rookie Running Back, and one Star rookie Wide Receiver entering the league.  Currently there are 30 Top level Fantasy Football Players in the NFL already.  There are also 2 Star Players returning from injury.  Now assume that you are in a 12 team league that allows you to keep 2 Players.  That would mean that 24 of the Top 32 projected Stars are already spoken for.  Depending on how much you trust Players returning from injury.  It would only leave a possible 10 Star Players remaining.  Once those Players have been selected the remaining Players available are Second level Players, and you estimate that there are at least 30 of them.  This means that your 2nd Round Pick has a similar value to your 3rd, and maybe even your 4th Round Pick.  It also means that the last two Picks in the first Round actually only have a 2nd or 3rd Round value to them.   

Now what does this mean to a Manager in a Keeper League?  Well if you have already secured a Playoff spot in this League, but 1 or 2 more wins will guarantee you a First Round Bye.  It might be worth it to trade your 1rst Round Pick and a Player off your bench for a 3rd Round Pick and a Star Player.  Provided you make the Final in this League your 1rst Round Pick will be one of the last two.  In other words the 11th or 12th.  This means that it’s actual value isn’t much better than a 3rd Round Pick anyways.  If you don’t trust Players returning from injury than you could get knocked out in the Semifinals, and still feel good about your trade.  It also provides you with one more option of who to keep for next Season.

Division Rivalry

It’s possible to develop rivalries in Redraft Leagues.  It’s just not the same as having Divisional  Rivalries in Keeper Leagues though.  In a Redraft League it wouldn’t bother me to make a fair trade with a Manager that defeated me last Season.  In my Keeper Leagues though I’m wary of trading a potentially dangerous Player to a Manager in my division.  I’ve actually accepted worse offers from Managers playing against my Rivals in order to hopefully provide them with a win over my divisional opponent.  If a Star Player on a Rival’s team gets injured.  I check the waiver wire to see how many decent replacement Players are available.  If there’s only 1 or 2 I’ll try to snatch them up.  That way my Rival is forced to either make a trade from a position of weakness, or accept having a very weak spot on their team.  No way I go to that extent in Redraft Leagues.

Bragging Rights

There’s nothing worse than joining a Redraft League when there are only 4 ridiculously obvious Fantasy Football studs and you unfortunately get the 5th Pick.  Ultimately when one of the Managers who were lucky enough to get a pick in the first four wins.  They can’t resist bragging about how much of a Fantasy genius they are.  Well in Keeper Leagues winning requires a lot more than luck.  Your draft position is determined by the Season before.  You had better have made the necessary moves to ensure your next Season isn’t a losing one.  That could mean trading for a fantastic young Player to fill a Keeper position for years.  It could mean trading out of the first or second Round to get more middle Round Picks in order to build a team with a lot of depth.  If you really want to be successful in a Keeper League, moves must be made.  If that’s not your thing?  By all means join a Redraft League.

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Play the Percentages or Trust your Gut – Sports Fanatics Play Fantasy SF-47

Draft Capital

Every Fantasy Sports website, or Fantasy Football analyst prepares for each Season by making a list.  Some like myself make many lists, but they all have the same purpose.  The goal is to arrange each and every fantasy relevant Player from the most valuable to the least.  Then we presume to decipher where the optimum position to draft them is.  Now maybe you choose to rely on our analysis or you don’t.  Most likely you take what the most popular websites decide, and then make slight adjustments due to personal bias.  However you choose to make your draft board.  Each Player you end up selecting has a perceived value attached to the Round you selected them in.  So what happens when you are setting your line up for the week, and the Running Back you selected in the first Round is facing the Top Run Defense in the league?

That Gut Feeling

How often should we trust our Gut when it comes to Fantasy Football?  To arrive at a suitable answer I’ll use both a top level Running Back from last season, and a top level Wide Receiver.

Todd Gurley – Last Season Todd Gurley finished as the Top Player in Fantasy football.  In the PPR league I run he finished the Season with a little over 400 fantasy points.  He averaged a little over 25 fantasy points per game.  Of course that’s what he averaged.  There was that game against the Seattle Seahawks Legion of Boom defense where he only gained 50 yards, lost a fumble, and didn’t score a touchdown.  He finished that game with 6 points.

So obviously you need to pay close attention to what your Gut tells you right?  I’ll get back to that question in a moment.  First lets take a look at the Wide Receiver from last year.

Julio Jones – For the past few Seasons Julio Jones has continually been drafted as a top 3 Wide Receiver.  Last season was a bit of a down year for him but he still averaged a little over 16 points per game.  Of course there was that game against the Minnesota Vikings where he had top cornerback Xavier Rhodes shut him down to the tune of 2 catches for 24 yards and no touchdowns.  4.4 measly Fantasy points for the game.  So once again your Gut might have been right. So obviously you should listen to your gut right!

Actually you shouldn’t

What I left out of my analysis of both Players is when they went on to have huge Fantasy games against top defenses.  Sure on occasion your best Players that cost you early Round picks will have bad games.  The reason you picked them so early is because more often than not they have good games.  Even when they are faced off against top defenses.  It helps to understand floor and ceiling probabilities as well.  A top tier Wide Receiver is always going to get targeted with a few passes, and have a reasonable opportunity to receive a touchdown.  The third Wide Receiver on the depth chart can play an entire game and not even get one ball thrown their way.  I don’t care who is covering each receiver.  The opportunity is still greater with the top tier pick.

There are exceptions

I actually had Julio Jones on my Fantasy team for a portion of last season.  If you are wondering if there were any games that I chose to sit him.  Well the answer would be yes.  Sounds like I’m going against my own advice right.  Well before you label me as a hypocrite.  You need to know a little bit about my roster.  I was fortunate enough to have 3 excellent Wide Receivers on my roster.  In order of their value from first to last they were Antonio Brown, Julio Jones, and Jarvis Landry.  I started Antonio Brown for every game.  My league requires two Wide Receivers to start so sometimes I would sit Julio Jones to start Jarvis Landry I drafted 2 Rounds after him.  The starting lineup also has a flex position so sometimes I started all three.  The point I’m trying to make is if you have another option that’s almost as good as your primary choice in a far more favourable match up?  Then choosing to follow your Gut makes total sense.  Your second option will have a far safer floor, with only a slightly lower ceiling.

Good Luck in Week 1

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The Truth about Fantasy Football Drafts – Sports Fanatics Play Fantasy SF-46

The 50/50 Rule

If you have been playing Fantasy Football for a few years you’ve probably heard of the 50/50 rule.  Basically half the Players you draft won’t be on your roster by season’s end.  This isn’t necessarily a fact but you can bet that your final roster will look different if you plan on remaining competitive.  As an example I won my Fantasy Football league last year with three key Players on my Roster I didn’t draft.  I picked up Alvin Kamara, Jerick McKinnon, and Alex Collins during the Season.  On most teams in a 12 team league that Running Back trio would have been amazing.  Did I mention that I had drafted Leonard Fournette in the first Round last year as well!  Now you should also know that this is in a PPR Keeper League and my Keepers were Antonio Brown and Julio Jones.  How could I lose?  Well I did trade Julio Jones away midseason.  It would be impossible to draft a team that strong.  I just made the right trades and waiver wire picks when the opportunity arose.

This year’s draft has already been completed. You can see the condensed online draft with all of my selections on the Cobe Life YouTube channel.

Already my roster has gone through some significant changes.  I felt pretty good about landing Jerick McKinnon with my only pick in the first two Rounds.  That was until he went down with a torn ACL during San Francisco’s last practice of the preseason!  I took a flyer on Martavis Bryant because Oakland gave up a third Round pick to acquire him.  Well I guess Oakland is in the habit of giving away third Round picks because they cut him on final cut day.  In case you haven’t already figured it out, so did I.  I also drafted Dez Bryant, planning on stashing him on my Bench for up to 4 weeks with the hopes a decent team would sign him.  Unfortunately with the injury to McKinnon and my best Running Back on the bench being Mark Ingram (In case you weren’t aware Ingram begins the season on a four game suspension) I was forced to abandon my plan and drop Dez so I could pick up McKinnon’s potential back up Matt Brieda.  With my initial draft strategy in shambles I also decided to hedge my bets at Quarterback by replacing Martavis Bryant with Alex Smith.

So before the season has even begun I’ve already changed 3 of my players from a total of 15 on the roster.  What are the odds that I end up switching four more players over the course of the season?  Pretty damn good.

Safe floor vs High ceiling

There are many Fantasy Football pundits that will talk about the importance of choosing Players with a High ceiling.  Now there are a number of Players with exceptionally high ceilings that are guaranteed to score you a fair amount of points every week.  The more of those Players on your team the merrier.  But what about the Players with High ceilings and seriously low floors?    It’s great when your Flex Player gets you 15 points, but it isn’t much of a picnic when they get you 1.3 points.  This is where Safe Floor Players come in.  In order to understand what your mix of Players should be in your league you need to understand how many points are required to win on average each week.  In my PPR Keeper League it usually takes about 125 points to have a decent chance to win each week.  Your starting roster requirements are 1 Quarterback, 2 Running Backs, 2 Wide Receivers, 1 Tight End, 1 Flex (RB, WR, TE) 1 Kicker, and 1 Defence.  Breaking it down by position the average amount of points you are looking for are QB-20pts, RB-15pts, WR-15pts, TE-10pts, K-7pts, DEF-8pts.  So a totally average week would net you 120pts. So somebody on your roster needs to exceed their weekly average to help guarantee your victory.  Of course some of your players could under perform as well.  So what is the best way to prepare for the inevitable?  The answer is having two thirds of your starting roster as Safe Floor Players.  I would rather a Running Back or Wide Receiver that gets me 10 to 12 guaranteed points every week as my number 2 or Flex than a Player that gets me over 20 points once every four weeks, and less than 10 points the others.  Just cause they have a high ceiling doesn’t mean they are Fantasy gold.  The rest of your roster should be filled with High Ceiling hopefully Safe Floor Players.  A great example of a Safe Floor Player is the Number two Slot Receiver on any team with a decent offense in a PPR league.  They might not catch many touchdowns but they generally catch around 5 passes minimum every week for over 50 yards.  A good High ceiling Player to target is the deep threat Wide Receiver or Bell cow back on a High scoring team.

Don’t Stream just Target

People preach streaming Defenses, Kickers, and even Quarterbacks.  I won’t knock their choice because I’ve done it myself.  It can work provided you find yourself in the right situation to do it.  First of all you won’t have success streaming a particular position if two or more other Managers are streaming that position as well.  You don’t want to find yourself fighting to claim Ryan Tannehill off of waivers because he happens to be playing the New York Jets.  Secondly you need to temper your expectations.  Just because somebody is playing in a favourable match up doesn’t necessarily mean they will finish with a favourable result.  Especially if they aren’t a Top tier talent.  Thirdly it’s sometimes a lot more work thsn it’s worth.  While you are trying to decide which Defense to stream that week your opponent noticed that Carlos Hyde pulled a Hamstring during practice and quickly snatched Nick Chubb as a free agent.  There’s enough to think about during a Fantasy Football season.  Why give yourself more?

Some positions don’t matter

This is one of the most idiotic beliefs in Fantasy Football.  Don’t worry about which Kicker you draft because you can always pick one up in Free Agency.  That’s total horse shit!  Wait until you lose because your kicker on that high scoring offense finds himself in a heavy snowfall in November and finishes with 1 point, while your opponent was laughing his way into the winners column with New Orleans Kicker playing at home inside the Superdome.   Just wait on a Defense because they are too unpredictable from year to year.  Another totally daft statement.  You want to talk unpredictable?  Lets talk about starting Running Backs!  I won my league last year because a number of Top Running Backs got injured.  The Dalvin Cook injury made Jerick McKinnon a marquee starter. Mark Ingram wasn’t at 100% so Alvin Kamara progressed faster than anticipated.  The Top Team in my league on paper lost their considerable advantage when David Johnson injured his wrist in the first game of the season.  You would think that might be enough to scrap the entire season for that team.  Well she still made the Playoffs and won her division.  You know how she did it?  She did it by dominating on Defense.  That’s right!  Not only did she spend a mid Round pick on the Jacksonville Jaguars.  She also picked up the Minnesota Vikings when another Manager dropped them because he was streaming Defenses.  For the rest of tbe season she switched back and forth between the two Defenses depending on which one had the better match up and averaged WR2 numbers!  When did you draft your WR2?  I doubt if it was in the 10th Round!  While everyone else in the league was getting 6 to 10 points per week from their Defense, she was getting 11 to 15.  She drafted Carlos Hyde as her third Running Back because he was undoubtedly the number 1 in San Francisco (safe floor) and he was a serviceable replacement for David Johnson.  So what did that all add up to?  Fantasy Football victories!

Don’t listen to the “Experts”, just use common sense and you’ll do fine.

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Questions that need answering – Sports Fanatics Play Fantasy SF-45

Changes are afoot

There were a number of surprises in Fantasy Football last year.  Rookie Running Backs were flying off the waiver wire every week.  The Quarterbacks that went late in the draft became some of tthe Top performers.  Injuries to key Players happened early and often.  Fantasy Football was simply fantastic last Season.  So what should we expect this Season?

Plenty of Comeback Candidates

There are a few Players that missed a lot of time or even the whole Season last year that are primed to have huge Seasons this year.

Deshaun Watson – If you follow Cobe Life on YouTube, you will already know that Deshaun Watson is the highest QB on my draft board.  That’s right, I’m predicting him to be the Top QB in Fantasy Football.  He was already on his way to achieving that last year before he went down to injury.  I expect him to come back fully healthy and well rested.  Draft him with confidence.

David Johnson – David Johnson missed all but one game last Season with a wrist injury.  Before that he was considered to be the number 2 Running Back in the league by my rankings.  Wrist injuries generally heal well, and have very little effect on future performance.  David Johnson is the Arizona Cardinals offense.  I don’t expect a drop in touches.  Actually after being off the field for practically a full Season, he should be raring to go.  He’s my number 3 Running Back on my draft board.

Dalvin Cook – The Minnesota Vikings are a powerhouse team in a powerhouse division that’s in the powerhouse conference.  Dalvin Cook has already proved that he fits their powerhouse offense quite nicely.  Coming back from injury to a team that actually upgraded at Quarterback in the off-season.  Dalvin Cook is sure to find a lot of running room this year.  Snag him in your draft when the opportunity arises.

Julian Edelman – If you take a really good look at the New England Patriots roster you’ll notice something somewhat strange.  You won’t find many star players on it.    That’s what makes the return of Julian Edelman so huge.  On the offensive side of the ball there are three obvious stars.  Two of which (Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski) will be extremely difficult to draft unless you don’t mind reaching.  That leaves the returning Edelman as the only star on the Patriots that could fall below his true draft value.  I’m not even close to being a fan of the Patriots, but if Edelman falls in my draft.  I’m taking him.

Rookie Breakouts

Saquon Barkley – Saquon Barkley is for real.  I don’t take what I see in the preseason too seriously.  What I have seen from him will definitely carry over into the regular Season.  He’s elusive, has a great burst of speed through the hole, runs hard, runs fast, and has sure hands.  Barring a complete New York Giants breakdown, Saquon Barkley should finish as a Top 5 Running Back.  In most drafts he’s the 8th Running Back off the board.  Go ahead and reach.

Royce Freeman – Nobody really knows what to expect from Denver.  With Case Keenum ar Quarterback and the stacked Defense they already have, they could look a lot like last year’s Minnesota Vikings.  If that’s the case Royce Freeman could be in line for a lot of fantastic opportunities.  He has the potential to be one of those Rookie Running Backs that helps you reach the Fantasy playoffs.  There is some risk here, but if the Broncos can get a few leads in games Freeman will have an amazing season.

Calvin Ridley – First off I should mention that I generally don’t draft rookie Wide Receivers. It takes a while to learn a new offense, than get in sync with the team’s quarterback.  The calibre of cornerback they face from week to week is significantly higher.  It just takes awhile for Wide Receivers to adjust.  There is the odd exception though.  In this case it’s in the form of a pedestrian number 2 Wide Receiver, and a number 1 Wide Receiver that demands double coverage.  Calvin Ridley could serve as a decent bye week replacement or flex starter during the season.  If either Sanu or Jones gets hurt then he becomes highly valued.  I might draft him as insurance or trade bait when the time is right.

Wild Cards

There are a few key changes at the most important position that could flip this fantasy Season on it’s head.

Patrick Mahomes II – What will the Kansas City Chiefs offense look like in 2018?  I’ll tell you what it won’t be, boring.  Watching Mahomes play is like watching high school football.  He seems to hold on to the ball too long for the NFL but somehow gets away with it.  I’ve watched him ignore the easy dump off to his Running Back to attempt a deep throw downfield and let his Wide Receiver attempt to make a play.  Alex Smith he is not!  Now is that a good thing for the Fantasy Players you drafted on the Kansas City Chiefs?  I really don’t know.  I’ll tell you one thing.  I don’t expect Kansas City to win as many games as they did last year.  I wouldn’t be surprised if they didn’t make the playoffs.

Kirk Cousins – I expect Cousins to eclipse 4000 yards passing and throw for at least 30 touchdowns.  In other words he will be a Top 5 Quarterback this year.  His receiving corps is significantly better than who he had in Washington.  He got a huge contract and will be expected to earn it.  Look at the season Case Keenum had behind that offensive line.  Just imagine what Cousins will do.  As a result of his signing I’ll draft Vikings offensive players every chance I get.

The Countdown is on.

The first week of the season is drawing near.  I hope you’ve done your research because it’s sure to be another wild and crazy Fantasy Football year.

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The New look of Fantasy Football – Sports Fanatics Play Fantasy SF-44

How times have changed

If you have been playing Fantasy Football for the last decade then you have probably noticed a few changes.  Some of these changes can have a dramatic effect on how your Fantasy Football team performs from week to week.   Despite these changes, many Fantasy Football analysts refuse to adjust their strategies.  Well I can admit that I was resistant to change as well, and held steadfast for a couple of Seasons.  It took missing the Playoffs in my Keeper League for the first time in years to make me adjust my strategy.  The end result speaks for itself, I’m league Champion!  So what changes am I referring to?  In this article I’ll cover the three most important changes that you should be aware of.

Concussion Protocol

If you aren’t aware of how the NFL Concussion Protocol can effect the overall performance of your Fantasy Football team?   You need to pay close attention to this portion of the article.  For many years both the NFL and Players have misrepresented how often Players get concussed.  What was once considered a mild concussion that would have a Player miss a snap or two, can now cause them to miss the rest of a game.  I’ve already had this occur to key Players on my Fantasy teams in the first quarter of games.  Imagine what your chances of victory would be if your top Running Back was knocked out in the first quarter.  I remember when Players were considered tough if they got knocked out in the first half, and returned to play in the second half.  Nowadays those same Players would be considered foolhardy.  In reality those Players can no longer exist because the NFL Concussion Protocol has already removed them from the game, and quite likely the next game as well.  Something you should be aware of is that the more concussions a Player has had, the more likely that they will be susceptible to another.  Treat the brain like any other part of the human body that can sustain injury.  Some Fantasy Football Managers refuse to draft anyone that’s had an ACL injury.  I’m not one those but I do take injuries into consideration.  If two equally skilled Players are available to draft, and one of them has a history of injuries or concussions then I’ll draft the other Player.  The reality is that injuries are a part of the game.  Most injuries are manageable.  Players will play through minor injuries, and modern medicine has made recovery from major injuries relatively quick.  Concussion Protocol on the other hand is now governed by it’s own set of rules.  It’s because of this that you should be well aware.

Rookie Impact

Rookies have always had a place in Fantasy Football.  The temptation to draft a Rookie was always there, but more often than not didn’t pan out.  Every year the NFL media hype machine would latch on to a couple Rookies and have you believing that they were the second coming.  Very rarely did any of these Players reach their potential in their first Season.  Well like I said in the beginning, times have changed.   Rookies have become far more NFL ready over the last few years.  Especially positions that require more individual skill then scheme recognition.  Fantasy Football Managers shouldn’t be afraid to draft highly skilled Running Backs, or Quarterbacks.  Don’t make the mistake of underestimating the effect a top level rookie linebacker will immediately have on a Defense.  The coaching and Player development at the College level is at an all time high.  The only position that I remain wary of is Wide Receiver.  There are some complex timing routes in the NFL that can take more than a season to master.

Who’s Number 1?

I remember the days when NFL teams had a definitive number 1 Running Back, Wide Receiver, and Tight End.  Draft position was proportional to a Player’s ranking on their team’s depth chart.  Some Managers still approach their draft preparation with that archaic system in mind.  If that was you last Season then you probably missed out on Players like Adam Thielen, or Davante Adams.  If I asked 10 Fantasy Football Managers who they felt would finish with more fantasy points this Season between Diggs and Thielen, Thomas and Sanders, Ingram and Kamara, or Nelson and Cooper.  I bet no two Managers would give the same answers.  What this means to you is that Players that are second on their team’s depth chart could easily out perform top tier Players on other teams.  It’s also worth noting that having two Wide Receivers or Running Backs from the same team on your roster can make total sense.

 

Get with the times

There are a number of other things that have changed but I haven’t drafted yet so you will have to wait to find out.  If you take the three factors I’ve mentioned in this article into consideration this season you should be fine.  Good luck this Season, unless you are in a league against me of course. 😉

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2018 Fantasy Football Breakouts – Sports Fanatics play Fantasy SF-43

My Potential Breakouts

It’s July and the Fantasy Football Season is finally upon us. The usual off season shenanigans have led to a few suspensions. A few Players have announced that they are retiring. There’s always the talk about whether Tom Brady can keep up his high level of play for another year. Well I’m not interested in any of that. During the off season I’m only interested in figuring out one thing. Who are going to be the breakout players next season? Well I have selected eight players that should have the opportunity to put up some serious Fantasy Football numbers this year. I’ll begin with the Quarterback.

QUARTERBACK

Deshaun Watson
– If it wasn’t for the injury he sustained to his ACL in the first week of November last Season there’s no way he would be on this list. Deshaun Watson looked so good in the 7 games he played that I made a pretty big trade for him after week 5. He was on pace to eclipse 4000 yards and 40 touchdowns. I’ll take those numbers any day. Had he been healthy he could have finished the season with more fantasy points then Tom Brady. That’s all it will take for Deshaun Watson to have a breakout season. He just has to stay healthy. I’ll definitely be targeting him in drafts. There’s a good chance that a lot of Fantasy Football managers will be worried about picking a player coming back off a torn ACL. Well I’m not. Modern medicine has made the career ending ACL injury a thing of the past.

WIDE RECEIVERS

Josh Gordon
– I really struggled with whether I should include Josh Gordon in this list or not. In 2013 he put up amazing numbers. He had 87 receptions for 1646 yards with 9 of those being for touchdowns, and got selected to the Pro Bowl. So can a player who has demonstrated that kind of ability be considered as a potential 2018 breakout? The answer is yes. Josh Gordon finds himself in a rather unique situation after missing almost three Seasons due to suspensions for violating the NFL’s substance abuse policy multiple times. He finally returned to the field for the first time since 2014 at the end of last season. Although we didn’t get to see much of him. It was enough for me to recognize that although he’s been away from the game for awhile, his skills haven’t diminished. With an improved situation in Cleveland, and a much better Quarterback throwing him the ball. This could be the official return of Josh Gordon as a truly dominant Wide Receiver to the NFL. I would draft him as a high end number 2 with upside, or a low end number 1 if I went RB – RB to start the draft.

Will Fuller V
– You have already read how I feel about Deshaun Watson. Well I expect Will Fuller to be one of the major beneficiaries of that arm talent. Best of all there’s a very good chance that he will get overlooked by most people and fall in drafts. The main reason that might happen is because he isn’t the number 1 Wide Receiver on the Houston Texans. That honour belongs to what has to be considered one of the top 5 Wide Receivers in the league DeAndre Hopkins. Do I expect him to compete with DeAndre Hopkins for the top spot in Houston? Hell no! What I do expect to see him do is plenty of endzone celebrations. It took a few games for Will Fuller V and Deshaun Watson to get in sync last season but once they did they hooked up for 7 touchdowns in 4 games. SEVEN TOUCHDOWNS IN 4 GAMES! Sorry it just had to be said once more. That’s just ridiculous. Even if you count the first three games where their timing was off, that’s still an average of one touchdown per game. Across a full season that’s 16 touchdowns, or 96 fantasy points in standard leagues and 112 points in PPR before you calculate yardage. Sign me up for some of that. If I don’t draft Will Fuller V somewhere in the middle rounds of my draft I’ll hate myself a little. Trust me when I tell you that you had better be willing to do the same or suffer the consequences.

DeVante Parker
– Parker makes this list because for the first time in his career he should be the man in Miami. He has spent the last couple of seasons being overshadowed by one of my favourite PPR monsters Jarvis Landry. Although DeVante Parker is more of a true number 1 Wide Receiver, Landry was targeted so often in Miami that it didn’t leave much for anyone else to shine. Well Landry is in Cleveland now, and Miami appears to be ready to open up the offense a little more. The Player who should benefit the most is DeVante Parker. He could finish the season as a low end number 1, but you might be able to draft him as your number 2, or even number 3 he’s so under the radar.

Mike Williams
– I was a big Mike Williams fan in the 2017 draft, and when he got selected by the Chargers I figured he would have a good rookie season. Well a series of injuries prevented that from happening. I did see just enough to know that I was correct about his ability. Missing most of his rookie season could actually be a blessing in disguise. Wide Receiver is one of the most difficult positions to transition into the NFL with. They need to learn a whole new playbook. The catch windows are smaller. The Cornerbacks are smarter, faster, and bigger. They need to get in sync with a new quarterback. There are a lot of reasons why I generally don’t draft rookie Wide Receivers. Well Williams has had a full Season to study the playbook, and get a feel for the offense. I’m sure he’s spent a lot of time with Philip Rivers to get a sense of his timing. I just have a feeling that although Keenan Allen is Rivers’ number 1 target. It’s my belief that Williams will get a lot of targets in the endzone. Do yourself a favour and draft him.

JuJu Smith-Schuster
– This probably won’t come as much of a surprise to anyone. With a name like JuJu Smith-Schuster it’s hard to miss his highlight reel catches from last season. I’m not even sure the Pittsburgh Steelers knew what kind of a talent they had in JuJu until about midseason last year. That’s why I believe that although he had a great season last year, JuJu Smith-Schuster could have an even better one this year. His targets per game doubled in the second half of last season. Those kinds of target numbers should continue from Week 1 of this Season. I’m sure the Steelers have made some changes to their playbook to specifically target him more this season as well. It might require a bit of a reach in some drafts to get him but he might be worth it.

RUNNING BACKS

Dalvin Cook
– Dalvin Cook is another rookie who was on his way to having a great Fantasy Football Season when he got sidelined by injury. Like Deshaun Watson in suffered a torn ACL and only got to play in a few games. In those few games we got to see a Running Back that was strong through the line, elusive, and could catch out of the backfield. In the four games he played he went over 100 scrimmage yards twice while splitting time with Jerick McKinnon and Latavius Murray. Now McKinnon is gone, and although I do expect Latavius Murray to get some of the short yardage work. Dalvin Cook is sure to be the lead back in Minnesota. The addition of Kirk Cousins with his ability to throw the deep ball will only help create additional space at the line of scrimmage. I expect Dalvin Cook to have an exceptional season.

Derrick Henry
– I am a huge Derrick Henry fan. I have been since before he entered the league. He is an absolute monster of a Running Back. If you are a fan of Marshawn Lynch, then pay attention to Derrick Henry because he should be the next “beast mode” in the NFL. As a Tennessee Titan he was forced to take a back seat to DeMarco Murray. It’s only for that reason he hasn’t already established himself as a number I Running Back. This Season I expect the Tennessee Titans to finally utilize him as their lead back which will mean more touches, more opportunities, and more touchdowns. By midseason if he isn’t on your roster, you will be trying to figure out a way to trade for him. Don’t put yourself in that position. Just draft him when you have the chance.

Hopefully I’ve provided you with a little extra ammunition against the other Managers in your league.  Good luck this Season.

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NFL Rookie Minicamps – Sports Fanatics play Fantasy SF-42

Don’t believe the hype!

It’s that time of year when interesting news about the NFL is at a minimum.  There’s no combine to get us speculating.  The draft is over so that means the 286 mock drafts you studied were all proved to be totally wrong.  Any of the Free Agents you were really interested in are already signed.  The only things happening at this particular moment are Rookie Minicamps.  As a result of this the NFL Insiders really have nothing better to do than exaggerate everything they see happen.  When you here someone speculate that Derrius Guice could be the next Marshall Faulk because he caught two passes during a drill in the Rookie Minicamp.  Do yourself a favour and don’t just take that statement with a grain of salt.  Take it with the whole damn salt shaker!  I came across an article that described Baker Mayfield as the second coming.  Not only did he complete three straight passes, but it was to two different Receivers!  I hope the Patriots had a spy close by to take notes so they can properly game plan for him.  What’s really disappointing about the information that industry Insiders choose to share with the masses, is that they only focus on the obvious stars!

What about the undrafted Free Agents?

If you are a true fan of NFL football, then you will know of at least a couple Undrafted Free Agents that went on to become Superstars.  I’m talking about the Tony Romo, Kurt Warner, or Antonio Gates type of Player.  Could there be a Player of that caliber picked up a few days after the draft?  Has anyone that we don’t already know about show some real promise in the Rookie Minicamp?  If there is I’d absolutely love to hear about it!  I’m going to go out on a metaphorical limb here, and say that we won’t hear about anyone.  You can be damn sure that by week 1 of the NFL Season there will be a few names of Players that you didn’t hear a peep about until they lit it up during the Preseason.  One day they seemingly don’t exist, then during the third game of the Preseason they make a highlight reel play, and every NFL Insider has full chapter and verse on them.  It happens in mere seconds.  Sure they have Player profiles in their database on every Player.  That’s not what this is.  They already saw the potential in the Rookie Minicamp, OTAs, and full team training camps.  They just never had the guts to go on the record, and make a real prediction.  Better to say absolutely nothing than to risk being wrong.

And that’s precisely why!

All you are going to hear about over the next couple of weeks are safe predictions about first or second Round draft selections.  You will get tidbits of information about Players that provide a suitable scandal, or human interest story.  What I can promise you is that anything you hear shouldn’t effect who you plan on keeping in your Keeper league, or selecting in your Fantasy draft.  Unless they get injured of course.  Well that’s just a part of football.  If you didn’t know that you probably shouldn’t be playing Fantasy.

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FANTASY

All Mocked out – Sports Fanatics play Fantasy SF-41

I’ve had enough already!

One week left to the NFL draft and I’ve probably seen 30 mock drafts by now.  It’s actually more than 30 but eventually you just stop counting.  It’s bad enough that every online NFL News website has at least 3 mock drafts posted by now.  When you factor in that the NFL Network has a show that’s been running all month that’s dedicated to analyzing each and every analyst’s personal mock.  The subtle differences become lost, and essentially meaningless when you’ve heard so many reasons why Cleveland should take Josh Allen, or maybe Sam Darnold.  Maybe  Saquon Barkley is the right choice, or Josh Rosen looked really good at his pro day.  Definitely one of those guys should be the first player taken in the draft.  Unless you are in agreement with the analysts that believe Baker Mayfield is the sure thing.

Hopefully I wasn’t being too subtle

Who knows how many more mock drafts I will have the unfortunate opportunity to experience before the actual draft puts an end to it.  If you actually believe that any one of the mocks you’ve had the displeasure of seeing is right?  Well then I have a mint condition numbers matching frame off restoration 1952 Chevrolet Corvette for sale that you might be interested in.

Really!  No not really.

In case you aren’t an afficionado of classic American automobiles.  It might interest you to know that the first Chevrolet Corvette was unveiled in 1953.  There’s no such thing as a 1952 Chevrolet Corvette.  Just as there’s no such thing as a correct mock draft.  That’s why they are called MOCK drafts!

MOCK adjective : not authentic or real, but without the intention to deceive.

In layman’s terms it means some totally made up crap.  It’s purpose isn’t really to educate.  The primary purpose of a mock draft is to entertain.   If that truly is the case then I just have to say.  The majority of analysts are doing a pretty poor job.

Don’t focus on the Player.  Focus on the situation.

When you are making predictions that you admit aren’t authentic or real.   It wouldn’t hurt you to make predictions like Baker Mayfield third overall to the New York Jets.  Then extrapolate that his youthful exuberance, and competitive spirit will win him the starting job.  Teddy Bridgewater will be cut, but signed almost immediately when Sam Bradford gets injured in the preseason.  Bridgewater goes from being the third string Quarterback in New York to leading the Arizona Cardinals back to the playoffs.  Now that’s a mock draft pick that I would be interested in hearing about.  Unfortunately that’s not going to happen because the NFL analysts are afraid of making mock predictions that are too far from being possible.  The irony is that none of their mock drafts really are.

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Free Agent Fantasy Fallout – Sports Fanatics play Fantasy SF-40

My how things have changed

Quite a few Players have found themselves in new surroundings.  Some will become Fantasy Football relevant, while others… Well I’ll let you decide.

(Cobe Life has recently switched to a new Subscription service.  I strongly advise current Subscribers to resubmit their follow request)

Arizona Cardinals –  

Sam Bradford:  I see the addition of Sam Bradford as a good one.  Still this is first and foremost David Johnson’s team.  I wouldn’t draft Sam Bradford.

Baltimore Ravens – 

Michael Crabtree: he should establish himself as the true #1 Wide Receiver.  I would definitely draft him.

John Brown: should see an increase in targets, but still remain the third option in Baltimore. I wouldn’t draft him.

Buffalo Bills –

A.J. McCarron: totally unproven as a starter.  Minimal weapons available to him in Buffalo.  I wouldn’t draft him. Worth keeping an eye on if Buffalo picks up some targets in the draft.

Chris Ivory: just acquired to be McCoy’s backup.  Do not draft him.

Carolina Panthers – 

Torrey Smith: should be a more featured part of the offense in Carolina.  If Cam connects with him in the offseason I’d draft him.

Chicago Bears – 

Allen Robinson: could have a breakout Season as the new #1 Receiver in Chicago.  Underutilized in 2017 could have him fall in drafts.  I’d draft him if he falls to me after the 50th pick.

Taylor Gabriel: speedster that can keep defences honest.  Potential big play ability, but I see him as more of a decoy. I won’t be drafting him.

Trey Burton: sure to become Mitchell Trubisky’s safety net.  Potentially great in PPR formats.  I will take a late Round flyer on him.

Cleveland Browns – 

Tyrod Taylor: Cleveland is where many Quarterbacks have gone to die.  Not Tyrod Taylor though.  I think Tyrod can have his best Fantasy Season yet.  He could become a sneaky good Top 10 QB this Season.  I’m drafting him as a capable backup QB with upside.

Carlos Hyde: veteran leadership with 3 down ability.  Duke Johnson is still there so he won’t be asked to carry the load by himself.  Still Hyde will get plenty of opportunity to shine in Cleveland.  I expect him to have a decent Season but see him as a mid Round pick.

Jarvis Landry: if you play in a PPR league then you know what Landry is capable of.  His targets could actually increase in Cleveland. Draft him in PPR before someone else does.

Denver Broncos –

Case Keenum: the Broncos could have picked up any of the available QBs in free agency and upgraded at the position.  Case Keenum goes from one great situation to another one.  To me though Denver is still a Defence first team.  Keenum won’t be asked to put up huge numbers.  I won’t be drafting him.

Detroit Lions –

LeGarrette Blount: the move to Detroit isn’t an advantageous one.  The Running game hasn’t been anything to brag about since Barry Sanders retired.  Blount should end up being their short yardage back, and that’s about it.  I won’t draft him.

Green Bay – 

Jimmy Graham: I love Jimmy Graham’s ability.  I don’t like the move to Green Bay though.  Most QBs look for their Tight Ends or Running Backs when they are forced to scramble.  Aaron Rodgers actually prefers to look downfield for his Wide Receivers.  Jimmy Graham will still be a Top Tight End, but I wouldn’t draft him before Gronkowski, Kelce, Ertz, or Kyle Rudolph.

Jacksonville Jaguars –

Donte Moncrief: if Moncrief can adjust to the Jacksonville system quickly enough.  He should see an increased workload, and produce solid numbers.  Still there are many Wide Receivers in better situations.  I won’t be drafting him.

Austin Seferian-Jenkins: Seferian-Jenkins could be the surprise pick of your draft next Season.  Exactly the kind of target Blake Bortles needs to get back to the playoffs.  While other fantasy Managers burn early Round picks on Gronkowski, Ertz, and Graham.  You can wait and grab Seferian-Jenkins a couple Rounds later.  You can thank me after.

Kansas City Chiefs –

Sammy Watkins: everyone expects Watkins to be a Top tier talent year after year.  While the move to Kansas City has improved his situation.  He still shouldn’t be seen as a WR1.  I do see him as a solid WR2, and I’ll draft him as such.

Miami Dolphins – 

Danny Amendola: don’t expect him to repeat the Season he had last year.  Honestly I don’t expect him to play a full Season.  Somebody will draft him but it won’t be me.

Albert Wilson: looks like the Dolphins intend to copy their division rivals, and create a quick strike offence.  I just don’t see it happening right away.  As such I won’t be drafting any of them.

Minnesota Vikings – 

Kirk Cousins: the big offseason acquisition goes to Minnesota.  By all accounts his situation has improved with the move.  Cousins will have a better group of Wide Receivers to throw to.  An improvement at Running Back.  Plus the Vikings Defence should have him playing with a lead quite often.  I would be surprised if he didn’t finish the Season as a Top 5 QB.  I’ll definitely draft him.

New York Giants – 

Jonathon Stewart: Stewart is still a decent short yardage Running Back.  I see him as more of a complimentary Back to whomever the Giants draft this year.  I wouldn’t waste a draft pick on him.

New York Jets –

Teddy Bridgewater: Teddy will battle Josh for the starting job.  Until we know who will start I wouldn’t advise drafting either.

Isaiah Crowell: it seems like every year the Jets bring in another RB to replace Bilal Powell.  I wouldn’t be surprised if they end up in a timeshare.  I wouldn’t draft either of them.

Oakland Raiders – 

Doug Martin: with the addition of Doug Martin the Raiders could wear down defences by splitting carries with Beast mode.  I expect that will be the case.  Both backs should have Fantasy value as RB2s.  That’s where I will draft them.

Jordy Nelson: would you trade Aaron Rodgers for Derek Carr?  I wouldn’t.  If Jordy had a choice he probably wouldn’t either.  Nelson is no longer a WR1 in my books. I’d still draft him as a low end WR2 with upside though.

San Francisco 49ers –

Jerick McKinnon: for the first time in his career McKinnon should begin the Season as his team’s #1 Running Back.  He deserves the position, and touches that go along with it.  San Francisco is on the rise, and so is McKinnon.  I see him as a low end RB1. I would definitely draft him.

Seattle Seahawks –

Jaron Brown: overlooked in Arizona, Jaron Brown will have the opportunity to shine in Seattle.  A great route runner with impressive physical ability.  Brown should be a great replacement for Richardson.  I expect decent WR2 numbers.

Ed Dickson: I don’t see Dickson as a replacement for the departure of Jimmy Graham.  I believe that Seattle will use him as more of a blocking Tight End.  I wouldn’t even remotely consider drafting him.

Tennessee Titans – 

Dion Lewis: it’s hard not to expect an increase in touches as a Running Back leaving New England.  Lewis has the kind of game that makes PPR managers smile.  I know I am.  He has high end RB2, maybe even borderline RB1 potential. I will definitely draft him.

Washington Redskins –

Alex Smith: Alex won’t have the all star cast he got used to in Kansas City.  Still Alex is a veteran that knows how to win.  He will probably put up decent QB numbers in Washington.  Definitely worth drafting as a backup.

Paul Richardson: Paul had a handful of highlight reel plays in Seattle.  The move to Washington could provide him with the opportunity to become their #1 Wide Receiver.  If he wins the job it would be a mistake not to draft him.  Keep a close eye on him during the offseason.

can’t say I didn’t tell you

If your favourite team isn’t in my Recap.  It’s because they haven’t made a significant Fantasy relevant acquisition yet this offseason.  Now for those of you that like to draft a Defence before the last 3 Rounds of a draft.  Don’t be afraid to spend that mid Round pick on the L. A. Rams, or Jacksonville Jaguars.  Good luck in 2018.