Tag: Fantasy football predictions

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FANTASY

FANTASY FOOTBALL TIER VALUE DRAFT STRATEGY

TIER VALUE DRAFT SYSTEM

  • some Fantasy Football Analysts suggest you use ADP as your guide to determining Draft Value. Do yourself a favour and stop taking their advice!
  • there are another school of Fantasy Football Analysts that believe you should use their Top 200 ranking system. Then select your players based on the highest ranked player available and fill your roster positions. If your goal is to finish in the middle of the pack? Then by all means do that.
  • if you actually want to win then you need to be getting more VALUE with your draft picks than your opponents are. That’s it. It’s that simple! So how do you achieve that? Which position do you draft when? Are there specific Players you need to target?
  • the TIER VALUE DRAFT SYSTEM is extremely effective, and even more importantly easy. The real beauty of it is that it’s totally reactive. Essentially your opponents selections are setting you up to win your draft. The only choices you make are based upon positional preference. The system begins before the draft. You need to organize the players by their position (QB, RB, WR, TE) into Tiers. Tier 1 being the most valuable, Tier 2 the second most, Tier 3 the third, and so on. Some Positions will have more Tiers than others. Generally I include the very best Players at their position in Tier 1. Tier 2 includes Players that could score as many Fantasy points as the Tier 1 players but aren’t as certain. Tier 3 players have a high ceiling as well but come with some risk. Tier 4 and below are usually safe backups, Rookies, and total Wild Cards I might draft late. How many players are in each Tier is up to you. This season I have seen Fantasy Football Analysts have as few as 4 Top Tier Running Backs, or as many as 6. It doesn’t matter what they think. It only matters what you believe. Depending on where you pick in the first Round. That Top Tier of RBs could be important. In the TIER VALUE DRAFT SYSTEM you don’t want to be the first or even second person to draft a Tier 2 player when there are Tier 1 players available at another position. Lets say you have decided that there are 5 Tier 1 RBs in the draft. If you draft 6 then your first pick shouldn’t be an RB. Your choice should be the Player you believe will provide you with the greatest advantage at another position. Tight End is an attractive choice at this point. The Tier 1 Tight Ends scored an average of 8 points per game more than Tier 2 Tight Ends in 2020. That’s a greater advantage than QBs or WRs. Plus there are only 3 or 4 Tier 1 Tight Ends. So you would have a significant advantage over most of your league. In Round 2 you could probably still draft a Tier 2 RB. The same perceived VALUE at a lower price.
  • your goal is to fill your positions by paying less than your opponents, and to maximize your average points per game. In traditional PPR formats with 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, and 1 FLEX. You should rank the importance of the positions in this order.
    RB – TE (Tier 1 only) – WR – QB – TE ( Tier 2+)
  • so whenever possible you should aim to draft one of the last players available from each tier to fill out your roster. For example if there are only a few Tier 2 Running Backs left in your draft when your selection arrives. Grab one then. That way you have paid less for your Tier 2 RB than everyone who picked a Tier 2 RB ahead of you. The only time you pay more is when a higher Tier position you require to fill your roster is still available.

EXAMPLE OF TIER VALUE DRAFT SYSTEM

  • these are my current Quarterback Tiers for 2021.

Tier 1
Patrick Mahomes 2020 #5
Kyler Murray 2020 #2
Josh Allen 2020 #1
Dak Prescott 2020 Injury
Lamar Jackson 2020 #9
*Aaron Rodgers 2020 #3

  • Obviously if you are able to draft one of the Tier 1 QBs for a decent value you should. Just remember that perception isn’t necessarily reality. Most people would assume that Patrick Mahomes was the Top QB last season but actually finished 5th overall in Fantasy points. Utilizing my Tier Value Draft System last Season. I drafted Kyler Murray in the 4th Round and finished with a higher scoring Fantasy Football QB than Patrick Mahomes who went in the 2nd Round of my draft. Any of the QBs in Tier 1 could finish as the best Quarterback in Fantasy Football this Season. Don’t pick favourites, pick VALUE!
  • It still isn’t a guarantee that Aaron Rodgers will play this Season. If you aren’t sure by the time of your Draft then avoid him.

Tier 2 (-4 points per game average)
Tom Brady 2020 #7
Russell Wilson 2020 #6
Ryan Tannehill 2020 #8
Justin Herbert 2020 #8
Joe Burrow 2020 Injury
*Deshaun Watson 2020 #4

  • If I miss out on a Tier 1 QB I make it a priority to draft a Tier 2. You should expect them to perform at a slightly lower rate than the Tier 1 Quarterbacks. Any of these QBs could potentially outperform a Tier 1 QB though, so these are great Value targets in a Draft. In most Fantasy Football drafts I usually land a Tier 2 QB as my starter. The reason for this is because the obvious Top QBs tend to go too early for my liking. Usually you are still able to draft a Tier 2 Quarterback at least 3 Rounds after the last Tier 1 Quarterback gets drafted. That means you have at least 4 Rounds of picks to make up an average of 4 points per game on the Teams that drafted a Tier 1. That could have happened in the second Round if your opponent drafted a QB in the first, and you landed a Top 10 Fantasy Running Back.
  • DeShaun Watson could end up sitting out in Houston, or he could get traded to a contender. Of course he has criminal charges to deal with as well. Best case scenario he ends up in Denver and is a total steal as a Tier 2 QB. Worst case scenario he doesn’t play at all.

Tier 3 (QBs with upside)
Matt Ryan
Matthew Stafford
Daniel Jones
Ryan Fitzpatrick
Jameis Winston

  • Tier 3 has a number of Quarterbacks that could breakout in 2021. If you are a gambler, and lets be honest. If you love Fantasy Football you probably are. Then Tier 3 QBs are very tempting draft targets. They can be drafted relatively late in drafts after you have stocked up on quality RBs, WRs, and a Top Tier TE. I used to have a system I called the Dallas Clark Draft. Dallas Clark was the Travis Kelce equivalent back in the day. If I didn’t have a Top 5 pick in the draft. My first Round target was always Dallas Clark. Then I would draft best player available RB or WR until all of the Tier 1 and Tier 2 QBs were gone. Then I would target whichever Tier 3 QB was in the most favourable position. My team had an advantage at TE against my league, plus it was practically injury proof at RB and WR. In this group the NFC East QBs are the most interesting to me. It’s a weak division, and both QBs have great new targets to throw to.

Tier 4 (wildcards and safe floors)
Trevor Lawrence
Justin Fields
Zach Wilson
Derek Carr
Ben Roethlisberger
Baker Mayfield
Tua Tagovailoa

  • If you have drafted a Tier 4 QB as your starter you might be in trouble. That doesn’t mean you should avoid them entirely though. I am a strong believer in drafting a backup QB. A lot of Fantasy Football analysts would disagree with me but they’re wrong. First of all there’s always a serious QB injury early in the season. Having a backup QB like Roethlisberger or Carr provides piece of mind. Even if your QB goes unscathed. Limiting what’s available off the waiver wire is strategic as well. You also won’t have to scramble during your Starter’s bye week. I have also spot started my Backup against really weak defenses to good effect. If you are really lucky your backup becomes your starter. That happened on quite a few winning teams in Lamar Jackson’s MVP season.

RECENT QUARTERBACK MOCK DRAFT POSITION AVERAGE FROM FANTASY FOOTBALL CALCULATOR WEBSITE

QB1 – Patrick Mahomes 22nd pick
QB2 – Josh Allen 37th pick
QB3 – Kyler Murray 44th pick
QB4 – Lamar Jackson 51rst pick
QB5 – Dak Prescott 58th pick
QB6 – Justin Herbert 63rd pick
QB7 – Aaron Rodgers 66th pick
QB8 – Russell Wilson 70th pick
QB9 – Tom Brady 79th pick
QB10 – Matthew Stafford 88th pick
QB11 – Jalen Hurts 97th pick
QB12 – Ryan Tannehill 100th pick
QB13 – Joe Burrow 107th pick
QB14 – Matt Ryan 124th pick
QB15 – Trevor Lawrence 128th pick
QB16 – Deshaun Watson 130th pick
QB17 – Baker Mayfield 140th pick
QB20 – Ben Roethlisberger 169th pick
QB21 – Justin Fields 179th pick
QB22 – Ryan Fitzpatrick 191rst pick
QB23 – Derek Carr 192nd pick
QB25 – Tua Tagovailoa 198th pick
QB26 – Jameis Winston 207th pick

  • personally I play in 12 team leagues with 15 or 16 Round drafts. So even in a 16 Round draft a number of the QBs I listed in my Tiers wouldn’t get drafted.
  • now examining the Tier 1 QBs from my list. The most expensive Quarterback this season is once again Patrick Mahomes. In a 12 Team league he is going at the end of the second Round. The best buys in Tier 1 are Dak Prescott and Lamar Jackson going in the fifth Round. I am ignoring Aaron Rodgers for now because of his uncertain situation. How much better would Patrick Mahomes need to be to justify picking him 3 Rounds earlier? Chances are he won’t perform significantly better enough. Using the Tier Value Draft System there’s a good chance that any Team that drafted in Round five had a chance at a Tier 1 QB. IT PAYS TO WAIT!
  • Always be aware of which teams picking ahead of you have filled roster positions. If the teams picking ahead of you have already drafted a QB then you should be good to land the next QB on your list.
  • looking at the Tier 2 Quarterbacks, Herbert went in the early 6th Round. That’s a heavy price to pay for a Tier 2 QB. The fact that 2 of my Tier 1 QBs went just one Round earlier increases how valuable those picks were. Both Ryan Tannehill and Joe Burrow fell to the 8th Round. I would say that’s a competitive price for a Tier 2 QB. You gain 3 Rounds of VALUE against the cheapest Tier 1 QBs, and an enormous 6 Rounds of VALUE against the Team that selected Patrick Mahomes in the second Round! Try to imagine how much better Patrick Mahomes would have to be than Tannehill or Burrow to justify the cost? 12 points per game maybe? Is that a realistic ask?
  • once again considering that Tannehill and Burrow went near the beginning and end of that Round. Any of the Teams involved in those drafts had a fair shot of waiting until the rest of the Tier got picked to select them. IT PAYS TO WAIT!

MAKE YOUR TIER LISTS
SCRATCH OFF EACH PLAYER AS THEY GET SELECTED
WHEN THERE ARE ONLY A FEW LEFT PICK ONE!
WHEN A TIER EMPTIES – PICK YOUR FAVOURITE PLAYER FROM ANOTHER POSITION YOU REQUIRE AT A HIGHER TIER!
WIN YOUR DRAFT

Corbert de Ronde
Fantasy Football Expert
Pro Sports Podcasters

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FANTASY

HONEST FANTASY FOOTBALL ADVICE

I PRACTICE WHAT I PREACH !!!

If you follow me on my various Social Media channels?

YouTube – Cobe Life

Instagram – Cobesports

Twitter – Cobeness

Then you will know what my Fantasy Football philosophies are. I use a Tier based Fantasy draft value selection process. I place additional importance on Running Backs over every other position. I prefer to draft a Quarterback in the middle Rounds, and then draft a QB with upside late. I usually wait as long as possible to draft a tier two Tight End. I stock up on Players in high powered Offenses. I will draft a Defense in a weak Division over a highly ranked Defense that’s in a tough Division.

MY EXPERT LEAGUE TEAM

The Gridiron Pros League has been running for over a decade. It is a 12 Team PPR Experts League that allows you to Keep two Players to carry over into the next Season. There is no cost to your Keeper selections so it makes sense to keep whichever two Players you believe are the most valuable. All touchdowns earn the Player 6 points whether it’s a Run, Catch, or Pass.

Quarterbacks get 1pt/30yrds, -1pt/sack, -2pt/interception. There is a 5pt bonus for throwing for over 400yrds.

Rushing is scored at 1pt/10yrds. There is a 5pt bonus for rushing for over 100yrds, and an additional 5pts if they break 200yrds.

Receiving is scored at 1pt/10yrds. There is a 5pt bonus for receiving for over 100yrds, and an additional 2pts if they break 200yrds.

With that in mind here is my current roster to begin Week 5.

QB Carson Wentz – acquired via trade for Aaron Jones I drafted in the 3rd Round (gained 2020 3rd)

QB Josh Allen – Drafted

QB Baker Mayfield – Free Agent

RB Alvin Kamara – Keeper

RB Mark Ingram – Keeper

RB Chris Carson – Drafted

RB Ronald Jones – Waivers

WR Robert Woods – Drafted

WR Alshon Jeffrey – Drafted

WR Courtland Sutton – Drafted

WR DeSean Jackson – Drafted

WR A.J. Green – Drafted

TE Evan Engram – Drafted

TE Chris Herndon – Free Agent

DST L.A. Chargers – Drafted

K Eddy Pineiro – Free Agent

THINGS OF NOTE

I told my Followers to Trade Jarvis Landry, Frank Gore, or Aaron Jones at the beginning of this week. What did I do in my single most important league? I TRADED AARON JONES! Proving once again that I practice what I preach.

Usually I wait on a Tight End, and draft one of the last Tier 2 Players available. In this particular draft I ranked Evan Engram as a tier 1 Tight End. The other 3 Tier 1 Tight Ends went off the board fast. Allowing me to Draft Engram at a considerable value so I did.

The only reason I currently have three Quarterbacks is because Baker was a Free Agent. He showed some promise in his last game. I can see what he does this Week and decide what to do with him. I had space on my bench so why not.

My Wide Receivers are thin due to injury. If DeSean Jackson, or A.J. Green aren’t back soon? I will be forced to see what’s available on waivers, or make a trade. I specifically picked up Chris Herndon in Free Agency as potential Trade bait later.

THERE ARE A NUMBER OF NOTABLE ABSENCES ON MY ROSTER. THINGS THAT OTHER ANALYSTS WILL TELL YOU THAT YOU CAN’T GO WITHOUT.

David Montgomery was being aggressively hyped by quite a few Fantasy Football analysts. I could have drafted him but I didn’t. The reason was simple. The hype made his price too high. You know who I got instead? Chris Carson in the fourth Round. David Montgomery’s ADP in 2019 was in the middle of the 3rd Round. Tell me which Running Back you would rather have goung into Week 5?

I don’t have a Top Tier Wide Receiver! The variance in Fantasy points from week to week with Wide Receivers is far greater than Running Backs. It’s not because they have a greater breakout potential either. Running Backs and Wide Receivers have about the same odds to breakout. The variance comes from the significantly lower floor Wide Receivers have the potential of hitting. Starting Running Backs always get touches. Touches are what create opportunities. Wide Receivers will have games with little to no touches. No touches means no opportunities. So I don’t see the need to draft high value Wide Receivers. Instead I load up on Wide Receivers in high powered Offenses. In this case the Philadelphia Eagles, and Los Angeles Rams. I also added number 1 Receivers on bad teams that I could draft really cheap. Those would be Courtland Sutton, and A.J. Green. Teams playing from behind have to throw the ball, and in those cases their number 1 Wide Receiver usually gets touches.

If you want honest Fantasy Football advice designed to help you actually win then…

FOLLOW ME !!!

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FANTASY

2019 FANTASY FOOTBALL STEALS

Every Season there are a few Players that get overlooked for any number of reasons. These are the Players that could prove to be the reason you make the playoffs. After completing a number of drafts it has become obvious to me who they are.

Josh Gordon

Everyone knows who Josh Gordon is. When he is playing at his top level he is one of the most talented Wide Receivers in the league. Of course there is the extensive list of off field issues which have led to multiple suspensions.

The league agreed to reinstate him in early August. This was late enough in the off season to limit the amount of chatter about his fantasy impact on the New England Patriots. Josh Gordon is the best WR1 Tom Brady has had the pleasure to throw to since Randy Moss. It took a few games for the Brady to Gordon connection to start working. Once they got their timing down though Josh Gordon became a serious weapon. With Gronk gone Brady needs a reliable endzone target and Gordon will be it. It wouldn’t surprise me if he finishes as a high WR2 in fantasy but he isn’t being drafted as such.

A.J. Green

Here is another Player slipping till later in drafts that could potentially take the right fantasy football team to the championship. A.J. Green has dealt with injuries the last couple of Seasons. He will begin this Season on the sidelines with an ankle injury. He is likely to miss the first 4 games of the Season. He is being drafted in some leagues like even when he returns he will perform like a Flex starter. When A.J. Green is on the field he is a WR1 in Fantasy Football. He is still one of the most difficult Players to defend in the NFL. If you find yourself in the Playoffs and are fortunate enough to be able to start A.J. Green in your Flex spot. Trust me when I tell you that your opponent will feel like things don’t look fair.

Aaron Jones

Will Aaron Jones gets the increased workload that everyone hopes he will get in the new Green Bay Packers Offense? If he does he could finish as a Top 5 Fantasy Football Running Back. With Ty Montgomery gone his number of touches should increase. What everyone in the Fantasy Football community seems to be afraid of is whether new coach Matt LaFleur will make him the featured back, or have him split carries with Jamaal Williams. Even if they do split carries, where Aaron Jones is going in drafts still makes him a high upside RB2 that you can get quite late. In two of the most competitive leagues I’m in I was able to draft him as my RB3. If he gives me RB2 production that’s a steal. If he becomes the featured RB and finishes the Season with RB1 numbers that’s a League winner!

Cooper Kupp

Classic case of Fantasy Football Managers being seriously afraid of Players coming back from injury. The days of torn ACLs ending careers is far gone. Modern medicine has made recovery times shorter, and allowed Players to return with the same ability they had before the injury.

Before Cooper Kupp tore his ACL he was averaging 5 catches for 70 yards and almost a touchdown per game. In PPR that’s 18pts/game. I’ll take that as my 7th Round pick where I got him in a draft last night. Brandin Cooks, and Robert Woods are going much earlier in drafts but don’t provide better upside. When I drafted Cooper Kupp last night I already had Julio Jones, and Tyler Lockett as my Starters. I picked up Dante Pettis, and Mike Williams later as backups. If Cooper picks up where he left off I’m laughing. If he doesn’t it won’t hurt me.

It’s about Value

I’ve said it again and again. Every Player is draftable for the right price. When a total bargain is staring you in the face don’t pass it up. It doesn’t matter what the so called “experts” say. When you find yourself in the League final send them a screenshot with a roster full of Players they told you to avoid.

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FANTASY

2019 FANTASY FOOTBALL DRAFT BARGAINS

Average Draft Positions are Flawed

Anyone that makes there picks based entirely upon Average Draft Position is practically guaranteed to lose. If you have played Fantasy Football for more than 1 season then you should already know that I am right. Then why is it that 90% of the “fantasy football experts” base their analysis on ADP? Then every one of you that tunes into their YouTube, Facebook, Instagram, or Website uses their findings to plan your draft around.

Last season Patrick Mahomes was the top QB but his ADP was around 100th overall. George Kittle finished the season as the number 2 TE but in most leagues he wasn’t being drafted until after the 10th round! In my most competitive league which has been running for over a decade, both Players went way before their Average Draft Position. The Managers have learned in that League that if you see something special in a Player, and you want him on your roster. You have to ignore that Player’s ADP because he could go 3 Rounds earlier easily.

If you really think about it, and look at how we arrive at Average Draft Positions. The Average Draft Position of each Player is determined by calculating where they have been drafted most often in a huge number of mock drafts. This immediately creates two problems. The first is that in every real draft there is 1 winner, and 11 losers in a 12 team league. Yet Average Draft Position is determined by all 12 participants. Obviously the majority of the selections were poor, or absolute crap. The second issue with Mock Drafts in particular is that they provide you with a ranking or grade at the end of it. That grade is based on the projections (educated guess) made by the creator of the software. Well if their educated guesses were correct you could simply win every draft by allowing your website of choice to Auto Draft for you. I think everyone knows that auto drafting rarely works out well.

What Average Draft Position has successfully done is create opportunities for savvy Managers to take advantage of Players who have been incorrectly projected by the software creators, and therefore drafted later by the legions of poor mock drafters.

Veteran Fantasy Gold

There are 4 players in this category that have the ability, situation, and opportunity to provide you with an advantage over your opponents. All 4 of them are going in the 8th Round of drafts or later, and in some cases aren’t even being drafted at all in some leagues.

Adrian Peterson

Undeniably one of the best to ever play the position, and despite his age still puts up fantasy relevant numbers. Last Season he had over 1000 rushing yards, another 200 yards through the air, and 8 total touchdowns. Those are RB2 numbers, and last season he wasn’t even drafted in most leagues. So much for ADP. Sure Derrius Guice is back, but you can’t expect Washington to just drop a full workload in his lap. Not to mention there’s no guarantee that Guice will remain healthy all season. My guess is that at worst Adrian Peterson splits carries with Guice this season. That would make him a viable flex starter, and a serviceable backup in case your roster gets diminished by injury. If Guice isn’t 100% then Adrian Peterson becomes an RB2 once again. It never hurts to have a couple of those on the roster.

Tom Brady

Brady has been going undrafted a lot this season, and that shouldn’t be the case. I’m not telling you to make him your stating QB. Draft him as a backup to begin the season, and he’s also a great spot starter against weaker teams. His numbers weren’t spectacular last season, but they weren’t bad either. Everyone keeps harping on about the loss of Gronk but I actually prefer his targets available to him this season. Edelman, N’Keal Harry, Josh Gordon, Demaryius Thomas, James White, and Sony Michel. If the majority of those players stay healthy, and out of trouble that’s ridiculous! Now given those names I know that’s a big IF. What are you really risking though if you select Brady in the late rounds of your draft. You know what the best part is? The Patriots have a history of running up the score against weaker teams. Teams like the Miami Dolphins, Buffalo Bills, and New York Jets. It’s no wonder they get to the playoffs with relative ease every single season.

Larry Fitzgerald & DeSean Jackson

I listed these 2 veterans together because they are in similar situations. Both of them are playing for a team they feel incredibly comfortable with. Both have the ability to completely take over a game when given the opportunity. Both have to adjust to an offense they weren’t in last season. The best part is that both are being overshadowed by other players on their team in drafts. Christian Kirk is being drafted way before Larry Fitzgerald in most drafts. I understand the upside with Christian Kirk but sometimes a high floor is what’s needed, and Fitzgerald gives you that. With a new QB, Offense, and Head Coach you might want to feed one of the most sure-handed receivers in history the ball. Just saying.

With Carson Wentz coming back from injury the Philadelphia Eagles will do whatever they can to keep him healthy. One such way is to keep Defenses honest. I expect a balanced attack between Run and Pass. The only way you can maintain that balance and win games is to have success at both. Last season that wasn’t the case so the Eagles addressed it in the off season. To improve their run game they brought in Jordan Howard, and drafted Miles Sanders. To prevent defenses from stacking the box they brought back DeSean Jackson. You want to limit the pressure on Wentz, and provide him with a deep target to take the top off defenses. There’s no better way than adding someone like DeSean Jackson. He will play a similar role for Wentz that Hill plays for Mahomes, and you saw how that worked out.

Opportunity is knocking

Two more players that find themselves in advantageous situations are Dede Westbrook, and Marquez Valdes-Scantling.

Dede Westbrook had a decent season in his second year with Jacksonville. He finished with 66 catches for 717 yards, and 5 touchdowns. Not bad numbers considering Blake Bortles was under center having a down season. About the only thing worse than Blake Bortles having a down season is Nathan Peterman having one. With the off season acquisition of superbowl MVP Nick Foles things are bound to improve. How much will they improve is the real question< and so far the majority of drafters out there don’t expect much. I would expect a 20% improvement at least, with far more opportunities in the red zone. It wouldn’t surprise me if he finished the season with around 900 yards and 8 touchdowns. His ceiling is significantly higher though. I’ll draft him with confidence.

Marquez Valdes-Scantling could very well be Aaron Rodgers number 2 target this season. That should be enough to peak your interest right there. He has looked unstoppable in the preseason. Granted it is the preseason but that’s a good indicator that he’s feeling completely confident entering the season. Aaron Rodgers also seems especially motivated this year. The entire NFC should be worried about that. If you can remember the break out seasons that Randall Cobb had as Aaron Rodgers number 2. Then you know what is possible for Marquez this season. 1000 yards and double digit touchdowns aren’t out of the question.

YOU CAN TRUST ADP IF YOU WANT – BUT IF YOU ARE SERIOUS ABOUT WINNING – I SUGGEST THAT YOU DON’T !!!

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FANTASY

THE AFC EAST CONSPIRACY

Sure it’s a sport, but it’s also a business

So another NFL Season is in the books, and to no one’s surprise the New England Patriots have won the Superbowl… Again. Chants of them being the greatest dynasty ever, Belichick a coaching genius, and Brady as the goat can be heard in every sports bar. Seems like the second you begin to doubt their dominance, they suddenly get that much better. The truth of the matter is that the sudden performance increase has nothing to do with the Patriots themselves. It has everything to do with their competition.

Last Season the sudden increase in performance began in Week 12 after their Bye Week. The final six weeks of the Season they would face AFC East rivals 4 times. They would go on to win three of those games, and lose to the Pittsburgh Steelers, but beat the Minnesota Vikings. This would prove to be just enough to earn them the Bye going into the playoffs. If you are at all like me, you might be wondering how the New England Patriots have easily defeated their division rivals for a decade? This has always puzzled me. How can an NFL franchise be so inept at developing a team that’s competitive for ten years? A friend of mine, and I were discussing this the other day, and he had an interesting theory.

Maybe the Buffalo Bills, Miami Dolphins, and New York Jets have accepted that the cost to build a team that can challenge the Belichick/Brady combination is just too costly. Why spend the money to acquire quality free agents, or sign your star players to long lucrative contracts. If all you will get back in return is a slim chance to make it into the playoffs as a Wild Card team. Probably the most obvious attempt to have a losing Season came when the Buffalo Bills didn’t keep Tyrod Taylor as their starting Quarterback. The Player who stepped up, and practically willed his team into the Playoffs. In the end it’s possible The Buffalo Bills saw that as an unfortunate loss of Draft capital.

Remember this is just a theory

There have been other Teams, or individuals that have had to deal with this same conundrum. Imagine how F1 Drivers for Williams felt when Michael Schumacher was driving for Ferrari. How do you think Ernie Els felt when Tiger Woods was at the top of his game? Imagine being a Player for the Utah Jazz during Michael Jordan’s run? Would you have spent millions of dollars to marginally improve an individual or teams chances to defeat any of them? The answer is probably not. What’s even more difficult when it comes to the situation in the NFL AFC East, is that in order to unseat the Patriots as favourites. You would have to not only improve your own team, but expect the other teams in the Division to do so as well. It doesn’t help to split your Season series with the New England Patriots if they can just steam roll the other two teams for four wins.

So what is a Franchise Owner to do?

The answer might be to play the long game. How many more years will The Patriots have their Star Power? Will Brady play three more years? Maybe, but I honestly doubt it. What does he have left to play for? He now owns more Superbowl rings than any other Player in NFL history. He is a multiple winner of the League MVP award. He’s over 40, and although the league keeps making it safer for Quarterbacks it only takes one awkward hit to get seriously injured. One of Tom Brady’s favourite targets won’t be around much longer. If Gronkowski doesn’t call it quits this Season, he probably won’t be around for the next one. Who’s willing to bet that if Brady retires, then Belichick will call it quits right after. I’ll make that bet right now. Lets assume that all three are gone in three Seasons. If that’s the case then drafting Quarterbacks that require a bit of coaching up like say Josh Allen, and Sam Darnold seems like a great idea. While they are developing you probably won’t post too many winning Seasons, and you can build a strong group of skill Players around them through the Draft. If they don’t pan out in time, then you should have a lot of Cap space to go out and get a Playoff ready Quarterback in Free Agency.

The point is that when the time comes you’ll be ready, and you won’t have wasted too much money getting there. For fans of these three storied Franchises that can remember what it was like to have Powerhouse teams lead by the likes of Joe Namath, Dan Marino, and Jim Kelly it can’t be easy watching them lose year after year. All I can say to them is that there is light at the end of the tunnel. For the first time in a long time you can begin to see it.

OF COURSE THIS IS JUST A THEORY

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FANTASY Uncategorized

The Truth about Fantasy Football Drafts – Sports Fanatics Play Fantasy SF-46

The 50/50 Rule

If you have been playing Fantasy Football for a few years you’ve probably heard of the 50/50 rule.  Basically half the Players you draft won’t be on your roster by season’s end.  This isn’t necessarily a fact but you can bet that your final roster will look different if you plan on remaining competitive.  As an example I won my Fantasy Football league last year with three key Players on my Roster I didn’t draft.  I picked up Alvin Kamara, Jerick McKinnon, and Alex Collins during the Season.  On most teams in a 12 team league that Running Back trio would have been amazing.  Did I mention that I had drafted Leonard Fournette in the first Round last year as well!  Now you should also know that this is in a PPR Keeper League and my Keepers were Antonio Brown and Julio Jones.  How could I lose?  Well I did trade Julio Jones away midseason.  It would be impossible to draft a team that strong.  I just made the right trades and waiver wire picks when the opportunity arose.

This year’s draft has already been completed. You can see the condensed online draft with all of my selections on the Cobe Life YouTube channel.

Already my roster has gone through some significant changes.  I felt pretty good about landing Jerick McKinnon with my only pick in the first two Rounds.  That was until he went down with a torn ACL during San Francisco’s last practice of the preseason!  I took a flyer on Martavis Bryant because Oakland gave up a third Round pick to acquire him.  Well I guess Oakland is in the habit of giving away third Round picks because they cut him on final cut day.  In case you haven’t already figured it out, so did I.  I also drafted Dez Bryant, planning on stashing him on my Bench for up to 4 weeks with the hopes a decent team would sign him.  Unfortunately with the injury to McKinnon and my best Running Back on the bench being Mark Ingram (In case you weren’t aware Ingram begins the season on a four game suspension) I was forced to abandon my plan and drop Dez so I could pick up McKinnon’s potential back up Matt Brieda.  With my initial draft strategy in shambles I also decided to hedge my bets at Quarterback by replacing Martavis Bryant with Alex Smith.

So before the season has even begun I’ve already changed 3 of my players from a total of 15 on the roster.  What are the odds that I end up switching four more players over the course of the season?  Pretty damn good.

Safe floor vs High ceiling

There are many Fantasy Football pundits that will talk about the importance of choosing Players with a High ceiling.  Now there are a number of Players with exceptionally high ceilings that are guaranteed to score you a fair amount of points every week.  The more of those Players on your team the merrier.  But what about the Players with High ceilings and seriously low floors?    It’s great when your Flex Player gets you 15 points, but it isn’t much of a picnic when they get you 1.3 points.  This is where Safe Floor Players come in.  In order to understand what your mix of Players should be in your league you need to understand how many points are required to win on average each week.  In my PPR Keeper League it usually takes about 125 points to have a decent chance to win each week.  Your starting roster requirements are 1 Quarterback, 2 Running Backs, 2 Wide Receivers, 1 Tight End, 1 Flex (RB, WR, TE) 1 Kicker, and 1 Defence.  Breaking it down by position the average amount of points you are looking for are QB-20pts, RB-15pts, WR-15pts, TE-10pts, K-7pts, DEF-8pts.  So a totally average week would net you 120pts. So somebody on your roster needs to exceed their weekly average to help guarantee your victory.  Of course some of your players could under perform as well.  So what is the best way to prepare for the inevitable?  The answer is having two thirds of your starting roster as Safe Floor Players.  I would rather a Running Back or Wide Receiver that gets me 10 to 12 guaranteed points every week as my number 2 or Flex than a Player that gets me over 20 points once every four weeks, and less than 10 points the others.  Just cause they have a high ceiling doesn’t mean they are Fantasy gold.  The rest of your roster should be filled with High Ceiling hopefully Safe Floor Players.  A great example of a Safe Floor Player is the Number two Slot Receiver on any team with a decent offense in a PPR league.  They might not catch many touchdowns but they generally catch around 5 passes minimum every week for over 50 yards.  A good High ceiling Player to target is the deep threat Wide Receiver or Bell cow back on a High scoring team.

Don’t Stream just Target

People preach streaming Defenses, Kickers, and even Quarterbacks.  I won’t knock their choice because I’ve done it myself.  It can work provided you find yourself in the right situation to do it.  First of all you won’t have success streaming a particular position if two or more other Managers are streaming that position as well.  You don’t want to find yourself fighting to claim Ryan Tannehill off of waivers because he happens to be playing the New York Jets.  Secondly you need to temper your expectations.  Just because somebody is playing in a favourable match up doesn’t necessarily mean they will finish with a favourable result.  Especially if they aren’t a Top tier talent.  Thirdly it’s sometimes a lot more work thsn it’s worth.  While you are trying to decide which Defense to stream that week your opponent noticed that Carlos Hyde pulled a Hamstring during practice and quickly snatched Nick Chubb as a free agent.  There’s enough to think about during a Fantasy Football season.  Why give yourself more?

Some positions don’t matter

This is one of the most idiotic beliefs in Fantasy Football.  Don’t worry about which Kicker you draft because you can always pick one up in Free Agency.  That’s total horse shit!  Wait until you lose because your kicker on that high scoring offense finds himself in a heavy snowfall in November and finishes with 1 point, while your opponent was laughing his way into the winners column with New Orleans Kicker playing at home inside the Superdome.   Just wait on a Defense because they are too unpredictable from year to year.  Another totally daft statement.  You want to talk unpredictable?  Lets talk about starting Running Backs!  I won my league last year because a number of Top Running Backs got injured.  The Dalvin Cook injury made Jerick McKinnon a marquee starter. Mark Ingram wasn’t at 100% so Alvin Kamara progressed faster than anticipated.  The Top Team in my league on paper lost their considerable advantage when David Johnson injured his wrist in the first game of the season.  You would think that might be enough to scrap the entire season for that team.  Well she still made the Playoffs and won her division.  You know how she did it?  She did it by dominating on Defense.  That’s right!  Not only did she spend a mid Round pick on the Jacksonville Jaguars.  She also picked up the Minnesota Vikings when another Manager dropped them because he was streaming Defenses.  For the rest of tbe season she switched back and forth between the two Defenses depending on which one had the better match up and averaged WR2 numbers!  When did you draft your WR2?  I doubt if it was in the 10th Round!  While everyone else in the league was getting 6 to 10 points per week from their Defense, she was getting 11 to 15.  She drafted Carlos Hyde as her third Running Back because he was undoubtedly the number 1 in San Francisco (safe floor) and he was a serviceable replacement for David Johnson.  So what did that all add up to?  Fantasy Football victories!

Don’t listen to the “Experts”, just use common sense and you’ll do fine.

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Changes are afoot

There were a number of surprises in Fantasy Football last year.  Rookie Running Backs were flying off the waiver wire every week.  The Quarterbacks that went late in the draft became some of tthe Top performers.  Injuries to key Players happened early and often.  Fantasy Football was simply fantastic last Season.  So what should we expect this Season?

Plenty of Comeback Candidates

There are a few Players that missed a lot of time or even the whole Season last year that are primed to have huge Seasons this year.

Deshaun Watson – If you follow Cobe Life on YouTube, you will already know that Deshaun Watson is the highest QB on my draft board.  That’s right, I’m predicting him to be the Top QB in Fantasy Football.  He was already on his way to achieving that last year before he went down to injury.  I expect him to come back fully healthy and well rested.  Draft him with confidence.

David Johnson – David Johnson missed all but one game last Season with a wrist injury.  Before that he was considered to be the number 2 Running Back in the league by my rankings.  Wrist injuries generally heal well, and have very little effect on future performance.  David Johnson is the Arizona Cardinals offense.  I don’t expect a drop in touches.  Actually after being off the field for practically a full Season, he should be raring to go.  He’s my number 3 Running Back on my draft board.

Dalvin Cook – The Minnesota Vikings are a powerhouse team in a powerhouse division that’s in the powerhouse conference.  Dalvin Cook has already proved that he fits their powerhouse offense quite nicely.  Coming back from injury to a team that actually upgraded at Quarterback in the off-season.  Dalvin Cook is sure to find a lot of running room this year.  Snag him in your draft when the opportunity arises.

Julian Edelman – If you take a really good look at the New England Patriots roster you’ll notice something somewhat strange.  You won’t find many star players on it.    That’s what makes the return of Julian Edelman so huge.  On the offensive side of the ball there are three obvious stars.  Two of which (Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski) will be extremely difficult to draft unless you don’t mind reaching.  That leaves the returning Edelman as the only star on the Patriots that could fall below his true draft value.  I’m not even close to being a fan of the Patriots, but if Edelman falls in my draft.  I’m taking him.

Rookie Breakouts

Saquon Barkley – Saquon Barkley is for real.  I don’t take what I see in the preseason too seriously.  What I have seen from him will definitely carry over into the regular Season.  He’s elusive, has a great burst of speed through the hole, runs hard, runs fast, and has sure hands.  Barring a complete New York Giants breakdown, Saquon Barkley should finish as a Top 5 Running Back.  In most drafts he’s the 8th Running Back off the board.  Go ahead and reach.

Royce Freeman – Nobody really knows what to expect from Denver.  With Case Keenum ar Quarterback and the stacked Defense they already have, they could look a lot like last year’s Minnesota Vikings.  If that’s the case Royce Freeman could be in line for a lot of fantastic opportunities.  He has the potential to be one of those Rookie Running Backs that helps you reach the Fantasy playoffs.  There is some risk here, but if the Broncos can get a few leads in games Freeman will have an amazing season.

Calvin Ridley – First off I should mention that I generally don’t draft rookie Wide Receivers. It takes a while to learn a new offense, than get in sync with the team’s quarterback.  The calibre of cornerback they face from week to week is significantly higher.  It just takes awhile for Wide Receivers to adjust.  There is the odd exception though.  In this case it’s in the form of a pedestrian number 2 Wide Receiver, and a number 1 Wide Receiver that demands double coverage.  Calvin Ridley could serve as a decent bye week replacement or flex starter during the season.  If either Sanu or Jones gets hurt then he becomes highly valued.  I might draft him as insurance or trade bait when the time is right.

Wild Cards

There are a few key changes at the most important position that could flip this fantasy Season on it’s head.

Patrick Mahomes II – What will the Kansas City Chiefs offense look like in 2018?  I’ll tell you what it won’t be, boring.  Watching Mahomes play is like watching high school football.  He seems to hold on to the ball too long for the NFL but somehow gets away with it.  I’ve watched him ignore the easy dump off to his Running Back to attempt a deep throw downfield and let his Wide Receiver attempt to make a play.  Alex Smith he is not!  Now is that a good thing for the Fantasy Players you drafted on the Kansas City Chiefs?  I really don’t know.  I’ll tell you one thing.  I don’t expect Kansas City to win as many games as they did last year.  I wouldn’t be surprised if they didn’t make the playoffs.

Kirk Cousins – I expect Cousins to eclipse 4000 yards passing and throw for at least 30 touchdowns.  In other words he will be a Top 5 Quarterback this year.  His receiving corps is significantly better than who he had in Washington.  He got a huge contract and will be expected to earn it.  Look at the season Case Keenum had behind that offensive line.  Just imagine what Cousins will do.  As a result of his signing I’ll draft Vikings offensive players every chance I get.

The Countdown is on.

The first week of the season is drawing near.  I hope you’ve done your research because it’s sure to be another wild and crazy Fantasy Football year.