TIER VALUE DRAFT SYSTEM
- some Fantasy Football Analysts suggest you use ADP as your guide to determining Draft Value. Do yourself a favour and stop taking their advice!
- there are another school of Fantasy Football Analysts that believe you should use their Top 200 ranking system. Then select your players based on the highest ranked player available and fill your roster positions. If your goal is to finish in the middle of the pack? Then by all means do that.
- if you actually want to win then you need to be getting more VALUE with your draft picks than your opponents are. That’s it. It’s that simple! So how do you achieve that? Which position do you draft when? Are there specific Players you need to target?
- the TIER VALUE DRAFT SYSTEM is extremely effective, and even more importantly easy. The real beauty of it is that it’s totally reactive. Essentially your opponents selections are setting you up to win your draft. The only choices you make are based upon positional preference. The system begins before the draft. You need to organize the players by their position (QB, RB, WR, TE) into Tiers. Tier 1 being the most valuable, Tier 2 the second most, Tier 3 the third, and so on. Some Positions will have more Tiers than others. Generally I include the very best Players at their position in Tier 1. Tier 2 includes Players that could score as many Fantasy points as the Tier 1 players but aren’t as certain. Tier 3 players have a high ceiling as well but come with some risk. Tier 4 and below are usually safe backups, Rookies, and total Wild Cards I might draft late. How many players are in each Tier is up to you. This season I have seen Fantasy Football Analysts have as few as 4 Top Tier Running Backs, or as many as 6. It doesn’t matter what they think. It only matters what you believe. Depending on where you pick in the first Round. That Top Tier of RBs could be important. In the TIER VALUE DRAFT SYSTEM you don’t want to be the first or even second person to draft a Tier 2 player when there are Tier 1 players available at another position. Lets say you have decided that there are 5 Tier 1 RBs in the draft. If you draft 6 then your first pick shouldn’t be an RB. Your choice should be the Player you believe will provide you with the greatest advantage at another position. Tight End is an attractive choice at this point. The Tier 1 Tight Ends scored an average of 8 points per game more than Tier 2 Tight Ends in 2020. That’s a greater advantage than QBs or WRs. Plus there are only 3 or 4 Tier 1 Tight Ends. So you would have a significant advantage over most of your league. In Round 2 you could probably still draft a Tier 2 RB. The same perceived VALUE at a lower price.
- your goal is to fill your positions by paying less than your opponents, and to maximize your average points per game. In traditional PPR formats with 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, and 1 FLEX. You should rank the importance of the positions in this order.
RB – TE (Tier 1 only) – WR – QB – TE ( Tier 2+) - so whenever possible you should aim to draft one of the last players available from each tier to fill out your roster. For example if there are only a few Tier 2 Running Backs left in your draft when your selection arrives. Grab one then. That way you have paid less for your Tier 2 RB than everyone who picked a Tier 2 RB ahead of you. The only time you pay more is when a higher Tier position you require to fill your roster is still available.
EXAMPLE OF TIER VALUE DRAFT SYSTEM
- these are my current Quarterback Tiers for 2021.
Tier 1
Patrick Mahomes 2020 #5
Kyler Murray 2020 #2
Josh Allen 2020 #1
Dak Prescott 2020 Injury
Lamar Jackson 2020 #9
*Aaron Rodgers 2020 #3
- Obviously if you are able to draft one of the Tier 1 QBs for a decent value you should. Just remember that perception isn’t necessarily reality. Most people would assume that Patrick Mahomes was the Top QB last season but actually finished 5th overall in Fantasy points. Utilizing my Tier Value Draft System last Season. I drafted Kyler Murray in the 4th Round and finished with a higher scoring Fantasy Football QB than Patrick Mahomes who went in the 2nd Round of my draft. Any of the QBs in Tier 1 could finish as the best Quarterback in Fantasy Football this Season. Don’t pick favourites, pick VALUE!
- It still isn’t a guarantee that Aaron Rodgers will play this Season. If you aren’t sure by the time of your Draft then avoid him.
Tier 2 (-4 points per game average)
Tom Brady 2020 #7
Russell Wilson 2020 #6
Ryan Tannehill 2020 #8
Justin Herbert 2020 #8
Joe Burrow 2020 Injury
*Deshaun Watson 2020 #4
- If I miss out on a Tier 1 QB I make it a priority to draft a Tier 2. You should expect them to perform at a slightly lower rate than the Tier 1 Quarterbacks. Any of these QBs could potentially outperform a Tier 1 QB though, so these are great Value targets in a Draft. In most Fantasy Football drafts I usually land a Tier 2 QB as my starter. The reason for this is because the obvious Top QBs tend to go too early for my liking. Usually you are still able to draft a Tier 2 Quarterback at least 3 Rounds after the last Tier 1 Quarterback gets drafted. That means you have at least 4 Rounds of picks to make up an average of 4 points per game on the Teams that drafted a Tier 1. That could have happened in the second Round if your opponent drafted a QB in the first, and you landed a Top 10 Fantasy Running Back.
- DeShaun Watson could end up sitting out in Houston, or he could get traded to a contender. Of course he has criminal charges to deal with as well. Best case scenario he ends up in Denver and is a total steal as a Tier 2 QB. Worst case scenario he doesn’t play at all.
Tier 3 (QBs with upside)
Matt Ryan
Matthew Stafford
Daniel Jones
Ryan Fitzpatrick
Jameis Winston
- Tier 3 has a number of Quarterbacks that could breakout in 2021. If you are a gambler, and lets be honest. If you love Fantasy Football you probably are. Then Tier 3 QBs are very tempting draft targets. They can be drafted relatively late in drafts after you have stocked up on quality RBs, WRs, and a Top Tier TE. I used to have a system I called the Dallas Clark Draft. Dallas Clark was the Travis Kelce equivalent back in the day. If I didn’t have a Top 5 pick in the draft. My first Round target was always Dallas Clark. Then I would draft best player available RB or WR until all of the Tier 1 and Tier 2 QBs were gone. Then I would target whichever Tier 3 QB was in the most favourable position. My team had an advantage at TE against my league, plus it was practically injury proof at RB and WR. In this group the NFC East QBs are the most interesting to me. It’s a weak division, and both QBs have great new targets to throw to.
Tier 4 (wildcards and safe floors)
Trevor Lawrence
Justin Fields
Zach Wilson
Derek Carr
Ben Roethlisberger
Baker Mayfield
Tua Tagovailoa
- If you have drafted a Tier 4 QB as your starter you might be in trouble. That doesn’t mean you should avoid them entirely though. I am a strong believer in drafting a backup QB. A lot of Fantasy Football analysts would disagree with me but they’re wrong. First of all there’s always a serious QB injury early in the season. Having a backup QB like Roethlisberger or Carr provides piece of mind. Even if your QB goes unscathed. Limiting what’s available off the waiver wire is strategic as well. You also won’t have to scramble during your Starter’s bye week. I have also spot started my Backup against really weak defenses to good effect. If you are really lucky your backup becomes your starter. That happened on quite a few winning teams in Lamar Jackson’s MVP season.
RECENT QUARTERBACK MOCK DRAFT POSITION AVERAGE FROM FANTASY FOOTBALL CALCULATOR WEBSITE
QB1 – Patrick Mahomes 22nd pick
QB2 – Josh Allen 37th pick
QB3 – Kyler Murray 44th pick
QB4 – Lamar Jackson 51rst pick
QB5 – Dak Prescott 58th pick
QB6 – Justin Herbert 63rd pick
QB7 – Aaron Rodgers 66th pick
QB8 – Russell Wilson 70th pick
QB9 – Tom Brady 79th pick
QB10 – Matthew Stafford 88th pick
QB11 – Jalen Hurts 97th pick
QB12 – Ryan Tannehill 100th pick
QB13 – Joe Burrow 107th pick
QB14 – Matt Ryan 124th pick
QB15 – Trevor Lawrence 128th pick
QB16 – Deshaun Watson 130th pick
QB17 – Baker Mayfield 140th pick
QB20 – Ben Roethlisberger 169th pick
QB21 – Justin Fields 179th pick
QB22 – Ryan Fitzpatrick 191rst pick
QB23 – Derek Carr 192nd pick
QB25 – Tua Tagovailoa 198th pick
QB26 – Jameis Winston 207th pick
- personally I play in 12 team leagues with 15 or 16 Round drafts. So even in a 16 Round draft a number of the QBs I listed in my Tiers wouldn’t get drafted.
- now examining the Tier 1 QBs from my list. The most expensive Quarterback this season is once again Patrick Mahomes. In a 12 Team league he is going at the end of the second Round. The best buys in Tier 1 are Dak Prescott and Lamar Jackson going in the fifth Round. I am ignoring Aaron Rodgers for now because of his uncertain situation. How much better would Patrick Mahomes need to be to justify picking him 3 Rounds earlier? Chances are he won’t perform significantly better enough. Using the Tier Value Draft System there’s a good chance that any Team that drafted in Round five had a chance at a Tier 1 QB. IT PAYS TO WAIT!
- Always be aware of which teams picking ahead of you have filled roster positions. If the teams picking ahead of you have already drafted a QB then you should be good to land the next QB on your list.
- looking at the Tier 2 Quarterbacks, Herbert went in the early 6th Round. That’s a heavy price to pay for a Tier 2 QB. The fact that 2 of my Tier 1 QBs went just one Round earlier increases how valuable those picks were. Both Ryan Tannehill and Joe Burrow fell to the 8th Round. I would say that’s a competitive price for a Tier 2 QB. You gain 3 Rounds of VALUE against the cheapest Tier 1 QBs, and an enormous 6 Rounds of VALUE against the Team that selected Patrick Mahomes in the second Round! Try to imagine how much better Patrick Mahomes would have to be than Tannehill or Burrow to justify the cost? 12 points per game maybe? Is that a realistic ask?
- once again considering that Tannehill and Burrow went near the beginning and end of that Round. Any of the Teams involved in those drafts had a fair shot of waiting until the rest of the Tier got picked to select them. IT PAYS TO WAIT!
MAKE YOUR TIER LISTS
SCRATCH OFF EACH PLAYER AS THEY GET SELECTED
WHEN THERE ARE ONLY A FEW LEFT PICK ONE!
WHEN A TIER EMPTIES – PICK YOUR FAVOURITE PLAYER FROM ANOTHER POSITION YOU REQUIRE AT A HIGHER TIER!
WIN YOUR DRAFT
Corbert de Ronde
Fantasy Football Expert
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