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Play the Percentages or Trust your Gut – Sports Fanatics Play Fantasy SF-47

Draft Capital

Every Fantasy Sports website, or Fantasy Football analyst prepares for each Season by making a list.  Some like myself make many lists, but they all have the same purpose.  The goal is to arrange each and every fantasy relevant Player from the most valuable to the least.  Then we presume to decipher where the optimum position to draft them is.  Now maybe you choose to rely on our analysis or you don’t.  Most likely you take what the most popular websites decide, and then make slight adjustments due to personal bias.  However you choose to make your draft board.  Each Player you end up selecting has a perceived value attached to the Round you selected them in.  So what happens when you are setting your line up for the week, and the Running Back you selected in the first Round is facing the Top Run Defense in the league?

That Gut Feeling

How often should we trust our Gut when it comes to Fantasy Football?  To arrive at a suitable answer I’ll use both a top level Running Back from last season, and a top level Wide Receiver.

Todd Gurley – Last Season Todd Gurley finished as the Top Player in Fantasy football.  In the PPR league I run he finished the Season with a little over 400 fantasy points.  He averaged a little over 25 fantasy points per game.  Of course that’s what he averaged.  There was that game against the Seattle Seahawks Legion of Boom defense where he only gained 50 yards, lost a fumble, and didn’t score a touchdown.  He finished that game with 6 points.

So obviously you need to pay close attention to what your Gut tells you right?  I’ll get back to that question in a moment.  First lets take a look at the Wide Receiver from last year.

Julio Jones – For the past few Seasons Julio Jones has continually been drafted as a top 3 Wide Receiver.  Last season was a bit of a down year for him but he still averaged a little over 16 points per game.  Of course there was that game against the Minnesota Vikings where he had top cornerback Xavier Rhodes shut him down to the tune of 2 catches for 24 yards and no touchdowns.  4.4 measly Fantasy points for the game.  So once again your Gut might have been right. So obviously you should listen to your gut right!

Actually you shouldn’t

What I left out of my analysis of both Players is when they went on to have huge Fantasy games against top defenses.  Sure on occasion your best Players that cost you early Round picks will have bad games.  The reason you picked them so early is because more often than not they have good games.  Even when they are faced off against top defenses.  It helps to understand floor and ceiling probabilities as well.  A top tier Wide Receiver is always going to get targeted with a few passes, and have a reasonable opportunity to receive a touchdown.  The third Wide Receiver on the depth chart can play an entire game and not even get one ball thrown their way.  I don’t care who is covering each receiver.  The opportunity is still greater with the top tier pick.

There are exceptions

I actually had Julio Jones on my Fantasy team for a portion of last season.  If you are wondering if there were any games that I chose to sit him.  Well the answer would be yes.  Sounds like I’m going against my own advice right.  Well before you label me as a hypocrite.  You need to know a little bit about my roster.  I was fortunate enough to have 3 excellent Wide Receivers on my roster.  In order of their value from first to last they were Antonio Brown, Julio Jones, and Jarvis Landry.  I started Antonio Brown for every game.  My league requires two Wide Receivers to start so sometimes I would sit Julio Jones to start Jarvis Landry I drafted 2 Rounds after him.  The starting lineup also has a flex position so sometimes I started all three.  The point I’m trying to make is if you have another option that’s almost as good as your primary choice in a far more favourable match up?  Then choosing to follow your Gut makes total sense.  Your second option will have a far safer floor, with only a slightly lower ceiling.

Good Luck in Week 1

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The New look of Fantasy Football – Sports Fanatics Play Fantasy SF-44

How times have changed

If you have been playing Fantasy Football for the last decade then you have probably noticed a few changes.  Some of these changes can have a dramatic effect on how your Fantasy Football team performs from week to week.   Despite these changes, many Fantasy Football analysts refuse to adjust their strategies.  Well I can admit that I was resistant to change as well, and held steadfast for a couple of Seasons.  It took missing the Playoffs in my Keeper League for the first time in years to make me adjust my strategy.  The end result speaks for itself, I’m league Champion!  So what changes am I referring to?  In this article I’ll cover the three most important changes that you should be aware of.

Concussion Protocol

If you aren’t aware of how the NFL Concussion Protocol can effect the overall performance of your Fantasy Football team?   You need to pay close attention to this portion of the article.  For many years both the NFL and Players have misrepresented how often Players get concussed.  What was once considered a mild concussion that would have a Player miss a snap or two, can now cause them to miss the rest of a game.  I’ve already had this occur to key Players on my Fantasy teams in the first quarter of games.  Imagine what your chances of victory would be if your top Running Back was knocked out in the first quarter.  I remember when Players were considered tough if they got knocked out in the first half, and returned to play in the second half.  Nowadays those same Players would be considered foolhardy.  In reality those Players can no longer exist because the NFL Concussion Protocol has already removed them from the game, and quite likely the next game as well.  Something you should be aware of is that the more concussions a Player has had, the more likely that they will be susceptible to another.  Treat the brain like any other part of the human body that can sustain injury.  Some Fantasy Football Managers refuse to draft anyone that’s had an ACL injury.  I’m not one those but I do take injuries into consideration.  If two equally skilled Players are available to draft, and one of them has a history of injuries or concussions then I’ll draft the other Player.  The reality is that injuries are a part of the game.  Most injuries are manageable.  Players will play through minor injuries, and modern medicine has made recovery from major injuries relatively quick.  Concussion Protocol on the other hand is now governed by it’s own set of rules.  It’s because of this that you should be well aware.

Rookie Impact

Rookies have always had a place in Fantasy Football.  The temptation to draft a Rookie was always there, but more often than not didn’t pan out.  Every year the NFL media hype machine would latch on to a couple Rookies and have you believing that they were the second coming.  Very rarely did any of these Players reach their potential in their first Season.  Well like I said in the beginning, times have changed.   Rookies have become far more NFL ready over the last few years.  Especially positions that require more individual skill then scheme recognition.  Fantasy Football Managers shouldn’t be afraid to draft highly skilled Running Backs, or Quarterbacks.  Don’t make the mistake of underestimating the effect a top level rookie linebacker will immediately have on a Defense.  The coaching and Player development at the College level is at an all time high.  The only position that I remain wary of is Wide Receiver.  There are some complex timing routes in the NFL that can take more than a season to master.

Who’s Number 1?

I remember the days when NFL teams had a definitive number 1 Running Back, Wide Receiver, and Tight End.  Draft position was proportional to a Player’s ranking on their team’s depth chart.  Some Managers still approach their draft preparation with that archaic system in mind.  If that was you last Season then you probably missed out on Players like Adam Thielen, or Davante Adams.  If I asked 10 Fantasy Football Managers who they felt would finish with more fantasy points this Season between Diggs and Thielen, Thomas and Sanders, Ingram and Kamara, or Nelson and Cooper.  I bet no two Managers would give the same answers.  What this means to you is that Players that are second on their team’s depth chart could easily out perform top tier Players on other teams.  It’s also worth noting that having two Wide Receivers or Running Backs from the same team on your roster can make total sense.

 

Get with the times

There are a number of other things that have changed but I haven’t drafted yet so you will have to wait to find out.  If you take the three factors I’ve mentioned in this article into consideration this season you should be fine.  Good luck this Season, unless you are in a league against me of course. 😉

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Sports Fanatics play Fantasy SF-12 Le’Veon Bell

The Top 100 highlights

My final selection for the Top 100 highlight series from the 10-1 group is

Le’Veon Bell

Could he be the number 1 pick in your Fantasy draft?  A good case could be made for him to be exactly that.  Should he be the number 1 pick in your Fantasy draft though?  Well that’s something we will need to discuss.

Unless you are a emotionally attached to a particular Player.  The consensus top two picks in Fantasy are David Johnson, and Le’Veon Bell.  Most Fantasy analysts pick David Johnson as their number 1 pick.  And why shouldn’t they.  In his first full Season as the Cardinals Bell cow Back.  David Johnson ran for 1239 yards, caught another 879 yards, and reached the end zone 20 times.  Just ridiculous right!  Well actually it isn’t as ridiculous as it seems.  Consider what Le’Veon Bell achieved in a suspension shortened Season.  1268 yards rushing, with another 616 yards receiving, and 9 touchdowns.  Not too shabby is it?  Project his averages over a full 16 games, and compare again.  Le’Veon Bell’s numbers would have been 1691 yards rushing, with another 821 yards receiving, and 12 touchdowns.    Now the comparison doesn’t look so lopsided in Johnson’s favour does it.  What about the 8 additional touchdowns though right.  Obviously that still makes David Johnson the number 1 pick.  Well lets look at this mathematically.  8 more touchdowns is an additional 48 points in standard scoring formats.  Le’Veon Bell would have finished with an additional 392 yards of offence which is another 39.2 points in standard scoring formats.  If your league provides a bonus for breaking 100 yards rushing or receiving like many do, mine included.  Le’Veon Bell would have had at least 5 more 100 yard bonuses than Johnson.  My league awarded a 3 point bonus last Season.  That’s an additional 15 points.  Add it all up and Le’Veon Bell is your number 1 pick statistically.

Well there you have it.  Le’Veon Bell is your number 1 pick.  Lets hope you get one of the first three picks.  If you don’t get numero uno, then lets hope the other two Managers haven’t read my blog.  Ok hold on a second.  If Fantasy Football was just about the statistical advantage, then why bother playing?

It’s all the intangibles that make Fantasy Football so much fun.  It’s the qualitative advantages that eventually decide who wins, or loses.  For instance is DeAndre Hopkins a better Wide Receiver than Julian Edelman?  Damn right he is.  If you think he isn’t then you’re either a big Patriots fan, or the worst talent scout ever.  Ever!  Statistically though Edelman beat out Hopkins last Season.  Of course that’s what happens when Tom Brady is throwing you the ball instead of Brock Osweiler.  Brady is the qualitative advantage.  So when we look at Le’Veon Bell’s situation versus David Johnson’s.  Johnson has one major advantage over Bell.  It’s not the Quarterback because they both have true veterans feeding them the ball.  They are both on very competitive teams, so they should both get plenty of opportunities in the Red zone.  The difference is in their importance to each teams offensive success.  Remove David Johnson from the roster, and the Arizona Cardinals suddenly look like a losing franchise.  In the four games without Le’Veon Bell last Season, the Steelers went 3-1.  The reason for this is the plethora of offensive Weapons the Steelers are blessed with.  They don’t need to rely on Le’Veon Bell.  Without David Johnson the Arizona Cardinals only proven commodity is Larry Fitzgerald.  This is why you can pretty much guarantee that Johnson will put up a decent amount of Fantasy points every game.  You can’t say the same about Le’Veon Bell.  If Antonio Brown, Martavis Bryant, Eli Rogers, or any one else gets hot then Bell will be hardly used.  When the Steelers get out to a huge lead.  Which they tend to do a few times a Season.  They generally rest Bell, and give his back up a few touches.  That’s a very rare occurrence with David Johnson.  The Cardinals are a Defence first kind of team.  They prefer clock management to total blow outs.  Johnson is the man who winds the clock.  He doesn’t leave the game until the final whistle blows.

So Draft Johnson ahead of Bell then.

Honestly, they are both safe bets.  I’d be totally satisfied with either one.  If I had to pick one I’d go with Bell.  I have a feeling that the Steelers are going to be unstoppable on Offence this year.  As long as Big Ben stays healthy, and I believe he will.  The Steelers are going to score early, and often.  I believe Bell will get even more opportunities to score during the second, and third quarters.  I expect his touchdown numbers to improve.  I predict the opposite for Johnson.  Defences will begin to stack the box against him.  Forcing the aging Carson Palmer to beat them through the air.  Palmer’s interceptions have increased over the years.  I’m sure I’m not the only one who has noticed.  Taking David Johnson out of the equation is how you beat the Cardinals.  Johnson will be hard pressed to equal his touchdown numbers from last year.

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Sports Fanatics play Fantasy SF-11 A.J. Green

The Top 100 highlights

My ninth selection from the Top 100 highlight series from the 20-11 group is

A.J. Green

Take one look at A.J. Green, and it makes complete sense that he is such a successful Wide Receiver.  At six foot four inches tall, and two hundred ten pounds on a long lean frame he’s created to catch balls.  A.J. Green poses a serious problem for Defensive Backs.  If not for missing six games last season due to a hamstring tear.  A.J. Green would have undoubtedly kept his 1000+ yards per season streak alive.  Last season was A.J. Green’s first sub 1000 yards season.  His rapport with Quarterback Andy Dalton has been perfect from the very beginning.  They are truly one of the best Quarterback – Wide Receiver tandems in football.

This off season the Cincinnati Bengals added new offensive weapons John Ross, and Joe Mixon in the draft.  I don’t see A.J. Green losing many targets to either one of them.  Actually the addition of John Ross should stretch the field.  Safety’s will be forced to stay deep to prevent the big play potential of Ross.  Leaving Green with one on one coverage against Cornerbacks on the outside.  A battle that he’s proven time, and again that he can win.

All that being said, what should you expect from him this year?

First of all, I don’t consider A.J. Green to be an injury risk.  The type of injuries he’s had in his career aren’t the kind that lead to repeat issues.  So what I expect from him will be based upon a sixteen game season.  My only concern with his potential production isn’t about him at all.  It’s actually a concern that I have about Andy Dalton.  To be fair, it isn’t with Dalton’s ability.  It’s really with the situation that he finds himself in.  Dalton isn’t a top tier Quarterback.  He’s definitely good enough to get the job done though.  At least if he’s provided with a favourable situation.  The problem with his situation this year is the offensive line.  Starting Tackles Whitworth, and Zeitler bolted for greener pastures in the off season.  Replacing them will be a couple of unproven Players with minimal NFL experience.  If they can’t keep Dalton upright, then A.J. Green’s numbers could suffer.  I suspect that there will be some growing pains.  While the Cincinnati Bengals work through it.  It wouldn’t surprise me if the Bengals switch to a run heavy offence.  Leaning on their trio of talented Running Backs Joe Mixon, Jeremy Hill, and Giovanni Bernard.

Sounds like A.J. Green is falling down my Draft board doesn’t it?  Well he isn’t actually.  My top five Wide Receivers in order from first to fifth are: Julio Jones, Antonio Brown, Odell Beckham Jr, Mike Evans, and A.J. Green.  I project him to get something around 1300 yards receiving, and 9 touchdowns.  If your league provides a bonus for going over 100 yards receiving in a game.  Then get ready to cash in on that bonus as well, if A.J. Green is on your roster.

What I’m trying to tell you is that A.J. Green is a truly great Wide Receiver.  When you are truly great.  Your situation doesn’t really effect you as much.  You just find a way to make plays.  Don’t over think this.  Draft A.J. Green with confidence.

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Sports Fanatics play Fantasy SF-10 Rob Gronkowski

The Top 100 highlights

My eighth selection for the Top 100 highlight series from the 30-21 group is

Rob Gronkowski

Is Rob Gronkowski the most skilled Tight End in the NFL?  If you didn’t answer yes, then find another sport to follow.  You don’t really know football.  In fact Rob Gronkowski might be the most dominant Tight End to ever play the game.  If you take away the two seasons that he played eight games or less.  Gronkowski has scored double digit touchdowns in every season.  At his current average of 9.7 touchdowns per season.  Gronkowski is on pace to break the total number of touchdowns by a Tight End in the NFL in the next five years.  He would be 31 by that time.  Keep in mind that Tony Gonzalez set the current record at the ripe old age of 37.  If Gronkowski plays football until he turns 37.  He will probably set a touchdown record that might never be beaten.  Now I’m sure that many of you are factoring Brady’s affect on his production.  The truth is that Gronkowski actually makes Tom Brady better, as opposed to the other way around.  When you compare the Patriots record with or without Gronkowski in the lineup.  The Patriots with Gronkowski win an average of two more games per season.  Brady’s passer rating is in the low 80s without Gronkowski.  With Gronkowski in the lineup Brady’s passer rating shoots up by 20 points to over 100.  That’s how much of an effect Gronkowski has on a Defence.

Hopefully all of the doubters, and haters have fallen in line by now.  Gronkowski is the greatest Tight End in football.  Now should you draft him?  Let me ask you a quick question first.  Imagine that you are at the Race Track.  The same five horses are going to run the same five consecutive races.   You have to put all of your money on one horse for all five races.  Each horse has a particular advantage.  I’ll go over each horse with you.

Horse 1 is fast, has great stamina, and is in great shape.

Horse 2 is the fastest horse in the field, is extremely powerful, but has weak knees.

Horse 3 is a young Colt, is quick and lean, but lacks a final burst of speed.

Horse 4 is an untamed mustang with incredible bursts of speed, but occasionally loses stride, and fails to finish.

Horse 5 is strong, in perfect health, has middle of the pack speed, but has won when faster horses have faltered.

Which horse do you place your money on?  If you selected Horse 2 or 4 then Rob Gronkowski is for you.  Even though he is the top Tight End in the NFL.  Drafting Gronkowski means accepting a fair amount of risk.  Gronkowski has had something like ten surgeries.  He is an obvious injury risk every time he takes the field. Having Ron Gronkowski on your roster means you spent a first, second or third round pick on him.  At that price it makes watching him take a hit on Sunday difficult.  I can’t go through an entire season just praying that he doesn’t get injured again.  If you draft him and he plays at least fourteen games.  You will have a significant position advantage against your entire league.  It’s just not a gamble I’m willing to make in the first three rounds.  If I’m on the clock late in the third Round and Gronkowski is still on the board.  Well at that point the gamble is worth it.  Let Gronkowski slide that far, and I’ll make you pay for it.  Do I expect Gronkowski to play sixteen games this season?  Honestly I don’t.  I think he will play enough to help take someone’s team to the playoffs.  Winning the league because of Gronkowski is highly unlikely though.  If you draft Gronkowski this year.  Pay very close attention to his injury status each week.  Pay close attention to how many snaps he gets each game.  The Patriots might start him even if he’s hurt to confuse Defences.  The last thing you should do, and this is a must.  Draft a second Tight End in the late rounds with some upside as a backup.  Someone like Tyler Eifert, or Charles Clay should be available.  Just in case Gronkowski gets seriously injured again.

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Sports Fanatics play Fantasy SF-8 Cam Newton

The Top 100 highlights

My sixth selection for the Top 100 highlight series from the 50-41 group is

Cam Newton

Last year Cam Newton made a lot of Fantasy Managers happy for missing their chance to draft him.  He made Fantasy Football analysts like me look like geniuses for telling you to take a pass on him.  He flat out lost Fantasy Managers that drafted him any chance of winning their Fantasy league.  He followed up his MVP year with what most people would consider a relatively poor season.  24 touchdowns with 14 interceptions is poor by any standard.  Matt Stafford wiped the floor with him in Fantasy last year.  You could probably have drafted Stafford 6 rounds after Newton in last year’s draft.

There’s no disputing Cam Newton’s skill, and athletic ability.  Last season he was far from being the Superman he claims to be though.  After watching Von Miller toss him around in Superbowl 50.  I expected a bit of a Superbowl hangover.  I warned people that drafting him based on his MVP year stats was a mistake.  I predicted 4000 total yards, with 29 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions.  In other words I actually thought he would have a better year than he ended up with.  Most people thought my predictions were somewhat harsh.  In the end I was being generous.

So where does it leave us this season?

First of all there won’t be anyone except the most die hard Panthers fan eagerly waiting to draft Cam Newton in the first or second round.  Realistically there are at least seven Quarterbacks that will probably get drafted before Cam Newton.  Should you be the Fantasy Manager that picks him as the eighth QB off the board?

Damn right you should!

Carolina is about to steal a page out of the New England Patriots playbook.  Carolina is looking to become an up tempo offence.  Tom Brady, and Cam Newton have something in common.  They are both ineffective when they get hit.  It disrupts their timing, and effects their decision making process on future throws in the game.  New England successfully minimized this weakness by creating an offence full of quick slants, quick outs, swing passes to the Running Backs, and a balanced Attack.  With the talents of Kelvin Behjamin, Devin Funchess, Johnathan Stewart, Greg Olsen, and Rookies Christian McCaffrey and Curtis Samuel on the roster.  The Carolina Panthers have the necessary pieces to create a quick strike offence.  Cam Newton is by no means guaranteed to thrive in a system that suits Tom Brady.  Then again he adds an additional dimension that Tom Brady won’t ever have.  Cam Newton has proven that he is a formidable threat in the running game.  Now don’t expect him to run for 10 touchdowns in a season again.  That’s probably never going to happen.  Keeping Cam Newton healthy is just too important to the Carolina Panthers to provide him with enough opportunities to find the end zone that many times.  Another 5 rushing touchdowns isn’t out of the question though.  Do you know how many times Tom Brady has rushed for 5 touchdowns in a season?  The answer is never.  Carolina used to rely on it’s Defence to grind out victories against their division rivals.  Those days are over.  They face some of the highest scoring Offences in their division.  If they want to win the NFC South they will need to score a lot of points.  Whether they are able to become an offensive force begins and ends with Cam Newton.  I expect his touchdown numbers to improve over last year.  I expect his passing yards to be much closer to his 2015 total.  Add another season of at least 300 yards rushing, and you have the makings of a top ten Quarterback.

If I am projecting him to just squeak his way into the top 10.  Then why am I encouraging you to draft him as the eighth Quarterback off the board?  Why not wait to try and draft an undervalued QB that’s overlooked later?  It’s all about his potential.  Don’t forget he’s only one season removed from being the MVP.  Cam Newton’s ceiling is ridiculously high.  He is the NFL’s Superman when he wants to be.

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Sports Fanatics play Fantasy SF-7 Jameis Winston

Top 100 highlights

My fifth selection for the Top 100 highlight series from the 60-51 group is

Jameis Winston

Since entering the league Winston has managed to post back to back 4000 passing yard seasons.  His Fantasy numbers last season were better than Brady’s.  Keep in mind that Brady played four fewer games before you get too excited.  One category he definitely exceeded Brady in was total number of interceptions unfortunately.  Jameis Winston threw 18 interceptions last season.  When you compare that to only two for Brady, it’s obviously a problem.  If your Fantasy league penalizes Quarterbacks the usual -2 points for an interception.  Then Jameis Winston flushed an additional 32 points more than Brady down the drain.

Should that be enough to keep you from drafting Jameis Winston?

It’s obvious that the Tampa Bay Buccaneers believe in there number one overall draft pick.  All they’ve done is surround him with talented offensive targets.  Any quarterback in the league would be happy to have the group of skill Players at Winston’s disposal.  Cameron Brate, and O.J. Howard to create mismatches across the middle.  A true WR1 in Mike Evans that most people including me would consider a top 5 Wide Receiver in Fantasy football.  Now you can add DeSean Jackson to the mix. He now provides Jameis Winston with the deep threat he was lacking.  Do I see another 4000 yard season in Jameis Winston’s future?  You don’t need a crystal ball to figure out that the answer is yes.

The Bucs weren’t able to effectively stretch Defences last year.  As a result of that Jameis Winston was forced to throw in to some really tight windows.  It’s no wonder he racked up 18 interceptions.  With the addition of DeSean Jackson Defences won’t be able to simply clog up the first 15 yards beyond the line of scrimmage.  The Tight Ends will have more room across the middle, and Evans shouldn’t face as many double coverages.  The real benefactor here is Jameis Winston.  He won’t be forced to place every throw just perfect, or make as many risky throws.

Now is Jameis Winston a top tier Fantasy QB you should target in your draft?  Well that’s going to depend on what type of QB you are after, and which round you intend to draft them?  If the Quarterback position is something you place a great deal of importance in.  Then grabbing Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, Tom Brady, or Andrew Luck early makes sense.  If you would prefer to wait until later in the draft to pick up a consistent trustworthy signal caller.  Then grab Russell Wilson, Kirk Cousins, or Philip Rivers to play it safe.  Now if you’re like me.  You’ll want a Quarterback on your roster that has the potential to have Boom or bust weeks.   You can probably hold off for a bit and pull the trigger a little later to get Jameis Winston, Cam Newton, or Tyrod Taylor.  Each of these Quarterbacks have the ability to take over a game, and put up huge Fantasy numbers on any given week.  They also have the occasional flop.  Hopefully you are able to draft them late enough that their flop weeks are offset by the amazing Running Backs, and Wide Receivers you drafted earlier.

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Sports Fanatics play Fantasy SF-6 Jay Ajayi

The top 100 highlights

My fourth selection for the Top 100 highlight series from the 70-61 group is

Jay Ajayi

Ajayi began last season as a mid to late round flyer of a draft pick.  By mid season he was a definite RB2 with breakout game potential.  By season’s end he was statistically a true fantasy RB1.  It wasn’t like Ajayi wasn’t on people’s radar during draft time.  He showed flashes of what he could become briefly in 2015.  Then with Lamar Miller gone in 2016 the door was open for him to become the man.  It just took him a little longer to turn the handle and step on through.  By the end of the preseason when most Fantasy drafts occur.  He really hadn’t performed well enough to give Fantasy team Managers any real idea of what to expect.  He finished the season with almost 1300 rushing yards.  I don’t think anyone expected that, including the Miami Dolphins.  Well you can be certain that nobody will be sleeping on Jay Ajayi this year.

Jay Ajayi finished last season as a legitimate Fantasy RB1.  What can we actually expect to get from him this year?  Much of the same my friends.  Much of the same, and possibly even a little bit better.  You can go out and bet the farm that Adam Gase will involve Ajayi even more this year.  Every indication is that Ajayi is eager, and ready to become Miami’s bell cow Back.  Something there are very few of in today’s NFL.  Running Backs thrive in an Adam Gase system.  Even average Running Backs put up good numbers.  Ajayi’s three 200+ yard games last season are evidence enough that he is way better than average.  It took about a quarter of the season before Miami fully involved him last year.  That won’t be the case this year.  Ryan Tannehill’s further development, and increased level of confidence after making the playoffs last year.  That can only help keep the opposing Defence honest, and Ajayi should find plenty of running room.  Playing against the Buffalo Bills twice during the Fantasy playoffs has got to have Fantasy Managers just drooling.  Keep in mind that two of the three games Ajayi rushed for over 200 yards came against the Bills last year.

I must sound like the president of the Jay Ajayi fan club right about now.  To clarify, drafting Ajayi does come with a few concerns.  First of all the sample size of actual NFL experience is just too small.  Remove the three 200+ yard games from last year’s stats.  Ajayi only averaged 54 yards per game, and one touchdown for every three games played.  Average that over a 16 game season, and your final stat line would be, 864 yards rushing with 5 touchdowns.  That doesn’t sound like an RB1 to me.  Now how eager are you itching to draft him?

What I believe is that Jay Ajayi finished what was statistically a very good season last year.  In spite of being improperly utilized for most of the season during a transitional year for the team.  I don’t think Adam Gase will overlook Ajayi this year, and that the Miami Dolphins will be fully prepared to start the season.  If you draft Jay Ajayi as your RB1 you should be fine.  If somehow you are able to draft him as your RB2 then obviously you scored a great draft position.  Either way you are in good shape if Jay Ajayi is on your Fantasy team.

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Sports Fanatics play Fantasy SF-5 Julian Edelman

The top 100 highlights

My third selection for the Top 100 highlight series from the 80-71 group is

Julian Edelman

Edelman reaped the benefits of being Tom Brady’s favourite target last season.  He had a career best 1106 receiving yards.  This was from hauling in his second highest amount of total receptions in a season with 98.

What’s clearly evident is that Tom Brady has complete trust in Julian Edelman.   All the proof you need is to think back to last season’s Superbowl.  Remember that miracle catch Edelman made to keep the comeback alive.  Not an easy catch to forget is it?  If you haven’t forgotten, then obviously Brady hasn’t.  You can bet your ass the other Fantasy Managers in your league haven’t forgotten it either.  There is definitely going to be a lot of interest in Edelman at this year’s Fantasy draft.  Julian Edelman will probably get drafted a round or two earlier then his statistically projected draft position.  Should you make the reach, and grab him before somebody else does?

I definitely won’t!

Things really aren’t looking good for Julian Edelman’s potential output in 2017.  If you are hoping for a repeat of last year’s numbers, or even better.  Well keep hoping.  Hope real hard because there are a number of things that need to occur in order for that to happen.  The Patriots made a big move in the off season to sign former New Orleans Saints wide receiver Brandin Cooks.  Cooks is 8 years younger than Edelman, has the potential to reach the end zone every time he touches the ball, and has a similar skill set.  Who actually ends up as Brady’s favourite target in the end is anyone’s guess.  There in lies the problem.  Even if Edelman remains as Brady’s favourite target.  Cooks is still going to get a fair number of looks which means less opportunity for Edelman.  Another thing to consider is how many games a banged up, but altogether healthier Gronkowski will play this year.  Gronkowski played only 8 games last year at less than 100%.  As a result he scored a career low 3 touchdowns instead of his usual double digit tally.  You would think that should have provided ample opportunity for Edelman to find pay dirt.  Well it didn’t.  In 16 games Edelman reached the end zone only three times.  That’s a problem for Fantasy owners.  Instead the Patriots gave the ball to their bruising Running Back Legarrette Blount.  Well Blount is now an Eagle.  I still believe that Edelman will be mostly ignored in the Red zone.

Take my advice and let somebody else reach for Julian Edelman.  He is at best a high end WR3.

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FANTASY

Sports Fanatics play Fantasy SF-4 Doug Baldwin

The Top 100 highlights

My second selection for the Top 100 highlight series from the 90-81 group is

Doug Baldwin

After clearly establishing himself as the number 1 Wide Receiver in Seattle in 2015.  Baldwin didn’t have the kind of season Fantasy owners were hoping for last year.  By no means was it an off year for Baldwin.  He still had a career best 94 receptions, and 1128 receiving yards.  So how was that a let down to his Fantasy Football owners?  What I failed to mention was that he scored half as many touchdowns as he did in 2015.  A decrease from 14 touchdowns to 7.  That’s 42 Fantasy points in most formats, for those of you that are keeping track.  Imagine a full roster of players that lost 42 points worth of touchdowns from the previous season.  Chances are you wouldn’t even be sniffing the playoffs.

Doug Baldwin’s lack of touchdown production wasn’t all his fault.  For most of the season Russell Wilson wasn’t playing at 100%.  After slowly increasing Wilson’s pass production year after year, and giving him the go ahead to throw the deep ball.  Seattle chose to reign him in a little last year to protect their franchise quarterback.  If it wasn’t for their lack of a quality running game.  Seattle would have probably dialed the passing game back even more.  So even though Wilson actually threw quite a lot of passes.  The majority of those were short to intermediate length routes.  That’s why Baldwin despite having a career year in receptions, didn’t find the end zone nearly as often.

Am I expecting a further decline this season?  No I am not.  The opposite actually.  This could very well be the year that Baldwin is considered among the elite Wide Receivers in the NFL.  What I am actually expecting is a mixture of his 2015 & 2016 seasons.  A stat line of something like 95 catches for 1100 yards, and 11 touchdowns is highly probable.  I believe that he could actually exceed those numbers.  It will depend on the production of recently acquired Running Back Eddy Lacy though.

Without question Doug Baldwin is a WR1.  I would draft him over Fantasy favourites like DeAndre Hopkins, T.Y. Hilton, and Demaryius Thomas.  With a healthy Russell Wilson back in the huddle.  Look for Doug Baldwin to find lots of room on the outside, and down field.  Another year in the Seattle Seahawks system has Jimmy Graham keeping defences honest so Baldwin won’t have to face too many double coverages.