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Sports Fanatics play Fantasy SF-15 Injuries already!

Injuries with a Fantasy impact before the first game of Preseason.

If there’s one thing I truly hate.  It’s injuries to key Players before they’ve even played a snap.  It’s the beginning of August, and the first Preseason game is yet to be played.  I have already spent some time adjusting my draft board more than once.  Thankfully my Keeper league team has yet to be affected.  Can’t say the same for a couple of my Competitors though. 😁 These are the injuries that could seriously effect your Fantasy team.

Andrew Luck

There has been a lot of speculation about Andrew Luck as he prepares to return from off season shoulder surgery.   The one thing that is for sure is that the original time line was incorrectly optimistic.  As of right now, Andrew Luck’s return is totally unknown.  It could be before the final game of the Preseason, or it could be against Jacksonville in Week 7.  Not knowing when he will return is worse than knowing he won’t be available until Week 7.  As a Fantasy Manager you can make the necessary adjustments to your draft grades if you know.  What makes matters worse is that Luck is the key to the Colts offence.  If he misses any significant time then you will need to adjust your values for a number of Players.  Is T.Y. Hilton a Top 10 Wide Receiver if Andrew Luck isn’t throwing him the ball?  He isn’t to me.  Donte Moncrief, whom I consider a potential breakout Player.  He becomes a Player I wouldn’t even consider drafting unless he fell into the final Rounds of a draft.  Do you think Scott Tolzien can keep Defences honest enough to avoid having the box stacked against the run?  I sure as hell don’t.  Frank Gore is a great workhorse Back.  Asking him to produce against a stacked box is too much though.  Every one of these Players goes from being a Fantasy staple to a complete gamble.

Kenneth Dixon

So in this case we know what the final diagnosis is.  Kenneth Dixon is done for the Season.  Hopefully you aren’t in one of those ridiculous leagues that drafts in July, and picked Dixon.  If you are, well sorry about your luck.  If you are like the majority of us, and have yet to draft.  Then Dixon going down has opened up some interesting possibilities on the Fantasy front.  The Ravens weren’t going to have a bell cow Running Back.  With Dixon out for the Season two Running Backs are likely to see a greater number of touches.  Who benefits most will depend on the play calling.  I believe that Terrance West will gain the majority of touches in Dixon’s absence.  This year will be his opportunity to prove to the Ravens, and the rest of the league that he can be a lead Back.  Danny Woodhead’s value doesn’t change much.  He will still serve as a change of pace, or third down pass catching Running Back.  He will gain a few additional snaps, but not enough to really affect his draft position.  As always Woodhead comes with a lot of injury risk, and that will always push him deeper into drafts.

Will Fuller

A couple Seasons ago DeAndre Hopkins was a Top 5 Wide Receiver.  Last Season he was supposed to back it up with another great Season.  That never happened.  There was a couple of reasons for his decline.  The first was incredibly terrible Quarterback play.  The second reason was the immediate impact of the Houston Texans first Round pick out of Notre Dame Will Fuller.  It’s not like Fuller is challenging Hopkins for the number 1 Wide Receiver position.  He isn’t nearly as talented as DeAndre Hopkins.  What he is though is incredibly fast.  His ability to burn opposing Defences deep can come in handy in close games.  With one of the Top Defences in the league it only took one big play to win games.  Well Will Fuller busted his Collar Bone today.  Which means to Fantasy Managers that he won’t see the field until some time in October at the earliest.  What does this mean for the rest of the Fantasy roster in Houston?  One thing is for sure, DeAndre Hopkins goes back to being the only real threat at Wide Receiver.  C.J. Fiedorowicz will be counted on to handle an increased work load.  The real benefactor here though is Lamar Miller.  Houston’s best chance of winning close games is to control the clock, and run the ball.

These are just a few of the early injuries.  Pay close attention during Preseason, and adjust your draft boards accordingly.  Trust me the injury bug is far from done.

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Sports Fanatics play Fantasy SF-12 Le’Veon Bell

The Top 100 highlights

My final selection for the Top 100 highlight series from the 10-1 group is

Le’Veon Bell

Could he be the number 1 pick in your Fantasy draft?  A good case could be made for him to be exactly that.  Should he be the number 1 pick in your Fantasy draft though?  Well that’s something we will need to discuss.

Unless you are a emotionally attached to a particular Player.  The consensus top two picks in Fantasy are David Johnson, and Le’Veon Bell.  Most Fantasy analysts pick David Johnson as their number 1 pick.  And why shouldn’t they.  In his first full Season as the Cardinals Bell cow Back.  David Johnson ran for 1239 yards, caught another 879 yards, and reached the end zone 20 times.  Just ridiculous right!  Well actually it isn’t as ridiculous as it seems.  Consider what Le’Veon Bell achieved in a suspension shortened Season.  1268 yards rushing, with another 616 yards receiving, and 9 touchdowns.  Not too shabby is it?  Project his averages over a full 16 games, and compare again.  Le’Veon Bell’s numbers would have been 1691 yards rushing, with another 821 yards receiving, and 12 touchdowns.    Now the comparison doesn’t look so lopsided in Johnson’s favour does it.  What about the 8 additional touchdowns though right.  Obviously that still makes David Johnson the number 1 pick.  Well lets look at this mathematically.  8 more touchdowns is an additional 48 points in standard scoring formats.  Le’Veon Bell would have finished with an additional 392 yards of offence which is another 39.2 points in standard scoring formats.  If your league provides a bonus for breaking 100 yards rushing or receiving like many do, mine included.  Le’Veon Bell would have had at least 5 more 100 yard bonuses than Johnson.  My league awarded a 3 point bonus last Season.  That’s an additional 15 points.  Add it all up and Le’Veon Bell is your number 1 pick statistically.

Well there you have it.  Le’Veon Bell is your number 1 pick.  Lets hope you get one of the first three picks.  If you don’t get numero uno, then lets hope the other two Managers haven’t read my blog.  Ok hold on a second.  If Fantasy Football was just about the statistical advantage, then why bother playing?

It’s all the intangibles that make Fantasy Football so much fun.  It’s the qualitative advantages that eventually decide who wins, or loses.  For instance is DeAndre Hopkins a better Wide Receiver than Julian Edelman?  Damn right he is.  If you think he isn’t then you’re either a big Patriots fan, or the worst talent scout ever.  Ever!  Statistically though Edelman beat out Hopkins last Season.  Of course that’s what happens when Tom Brady is throwing you the ball instead of Brock Osweiler.  Brady is the qualitative advantage.  So when we look at Le’Veon Bell’s situation versus David Johnson’s.  Johnson has one major advantage over Bell.  It’s not the Quarterback because they both have true veterans feeding them the ball.  They are both on very competitive teams, so they should both get plenty of opportunities in the Red zone.  The difference is in their importance to each teams offensive success.  Remove David Johnson from the roster, and the Arizona Cardinals suddenly look like a losing franchise.  In the four games without Le’Veon Bell last Season, the Steelers went 3-1.  The reason for this is the plethora of offensive Weapons the Steelers are blessed with.  They don’t need to rely on Le’Veon Bell.  Without David Johnson the Arizona Cardinals only proven commodity is Larry Fitzgerald.  This is why you can pretty much guarantee that Johnson will put up a decent amount of Fantasy points every game.  You can’t say the same about Le’Veon Bell.  If Antonio Brown, Martavis Bryant, Eli Rogers, or any one else gets hot then Bell will be hardly used.  When the Steelers get out to a huge lead.  Which they tend to do a few times a Season.  They generally rest Bell, and give his back up a few touches.  That’s a very rare occurrence with David Johnson.  The Cardinals are a Defence first kind of team.  They prefer clock management to total blow outs.  Johnson is the man who winds the clock.  He doesn’t leave the game until the final whistle blows.

So Draft Johnson ahead of Bell then.

Honestly, they are both safe bets.  I’d be totally satisfied with either one.  If I had to pick one I’d go with Bell.  I have a feeling that the Steelers are going to be unstoppable on Offence this year.  As long as Big Ben stays healthy, and I believe he will.  The Steelers are going to score early, and often.  I believe Bell will get even more opportunities to score during the second, and third quarters.  I expect his touchdown numbers to improve.  I predict the opposite for Johnson.  Defences will begin to stack the box against him.  Forcing the aging Carson Palmer to beat them through the air.  Palmer’s interceptions have increased over the years.  I’m sure I’m not the only one who has noticed.  Taking David Johnson out of the equation is how you beat the Cardinals.  Johnson will be hard pressed to equal his touchdown numbers from last year.

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Sports Fanatics play Fantasy SF-11 A.J. Green

The Top 100 highlights

My ninth selection from the Top 100 highlight series from the 20-11 group is

A.J. Green

Take one look at A.J. Green, and it makes complete sense that he is such a successful Wide Receiver.  At six foot four inches tall, and two hundred ten pounds on a long lean frame he’s created to catch balls.  A.J. Green poses a serious problem for Defensive Backs.  If not for missing six games last season due to a hamstring tear.  A.J. Green would have undoubtedly kept his 1000+ yards per season streak alive.  Last season was A.J. Green’s first sub 1000 yards season.  His rapport with Quarterback Andy Dalton has been perfect from the very beginning.  They are truly one of the best Quarterback – Wide Receiver tandems in football.

This off season the Cincinnati Bengals added new offensive weapons John Ross, and Joe Mixon in the draft.  I don’t see A.J. Green losing many targets to either one of them.  Actually the addition of John Ross should stretch the field.  Safety’s will be forced to stay deep to prevent the big play potential of Ross.  Leaving Green with one on one coverage against Cornerbacks on the outside.  A battle that he’s proven time, and again that he can win.

All that being said, what should you expect from him this year?

First of all, I don’t consider A.J. Green to be an injury risk.  The type of injuries he’s had in his career aren’t the kind that lead to repeat issues.  So what I expect from him will be based upon a sixteen game season.  My only concern with his potential production isn’t about him at all.  It’s actually a concern that I have about Andy Dalton.  To be fair, it isn’t with Dalton’s ability.  It’s really with the situation that he finds himself in.  Dalton isn’t a top tier Quarterback.  He’s definitely good enough to get the job done though.  At least if he’s provided with a favourable situation.  The problem with his situation this year is the offensive line.  Starting Tackles Whitworth, and Zeitler bolted for greener pastures in the off season.  Replacing them will be a couple of unproven Players with minimal NFL experience.  If they can’t keep Dalton upright, then A.J. Green’s numbers could suffer.  I suspect that there will be some growing pains.  While the Cincinnati Bengals work through it.  It wouldn’t surprise me if the Bengals switch to a run heavy offence.  Leaning on their trio of talented Running Backs Joe Mixon, Jeremy Hill, and Giovanni Bernard.

Sounds like A.J. Green is falling down my Draft board doesn’t it?  Well he isn’t actually.  My top five Wide Receivers in order from first to fifth are: Julio Jones, Antonio Brown, Odell Beckham Jr, Mike Evans, and A.J. Green.  I project him to get something around 1300 yards receiving, and 9 touchdowns.  If your league provides a bonus for going over 100 yards receiving in a game.  Then get ready to cash in on that bonus as well, if A.J. Green is on your roster.

What I’m trying to tell you is that A.J. Green is a truly great Wide Receiver.  When you are truly great.  Your situation doesn’t really effect you as much.  You just find a way to make plays.  Don’t over think this.  Draft A.J. Green with confidence.

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Sports Fanatics play Fantasy SF-10 Rob Gronkowski

The Top 100 highlights

My eighth selection for the Top 100 highlight series from the 30-21 group is

Rob Gronkowski

Is Rob Gronkowski the most skilled Tight End in the NFL?  If you didn’t answer yes, then find another sport to follow.  You don’t really know football.  In fact Rob Gronkowski might be the most dominant Tight End to ever play the game.  If you take away the two seasons that he played eight games or less.  Gronkowski has scored double digit touchdowns in every season.  At his current average of 9.7 touchdowns per season.  Gronkowski is on pace to break the total number of touchdowns by a Tight End in the NFL in the next five years.  He would be 31 by that time.  Keep in mind that Tony Gonzalez set the current record at the ripe old age of 37.  If Gronkowski plays football until he turns 37.  He will probably set a touchdown record that might never be beaten.  Now I’m sure that many of you are factoring Brady’s affect on his production.  The truth is that Gronkowski actually makes Tom Brady better, as opposed to the other way around.  When you compare the Patriots record with or without Gronkowski in the lineup.  The Patriots with Gronkowski win an average of two more games per season.  Brady’s passer rating is in the low 80s without Gronkowski.  With Gronkowski in the lineup Brady’s passer rating shoots up by 20 points to over 100.  That’s how much of an effect Gronkowski has on a Defence.

Hopefully all of the doubters, and haters have fallen in line by now.  Gronkowski is the greatest Tight End in football.  Now should you draft him?  Let me ask you a quick question first.  Imagine that you are at the Race Track.  The same five horses are going to run the same five consecutive races.   You have to put all of your money on one horse for all five races.  Each horse has a particular advantage.  I’ll go over each horse with you.

Horse 1 is fast, has great stamina, and is in great shape.

Horse 2 is the fastest horse in the field, is extremely powerful, but has weak knees.

Horse 3 is a young Colt, is quick and lean, but lacks a final burst of speed.

Horse 4 is an untamed mustang with incredible bursts of speed, but occasionally loses stride, and fails to finish.

Horse 5 is strong, in perfect health, has middle of the pack speed, but has won when faster horses have faltered.

Which horse do you place your money on?  If you selected Horse 2 or 4 then Rob Gronkowski is for you.  Even though he is the top Tight End in the NFL.  Drafting Gronkowski means accepting a fair amount of risk.  Gronkowski has had something like ten surgeries.  He is an obvious injury risk every time he takes the field. Having Ron Gronkowski on your roster means you spent a first, second or third round pick on him.  At that price it makes watching him take a hit on Sunday difficult.  I can’t go through an entire season just praying that he doesn’t get injured again.  If you draft him and he plays at least fourteen games.  You will have a significant position advantage against your entire league.  It’s just not a gamble I’m willing to make in the first three rounds.  If I’m on the clock late in the third Round and Gronkowski is still on the board.  Well at that point the gamble is worth it.  Let Gronkowski slide that far, and I’ll make you pay for it.  Do I expect Gronkowski to play sixteen games this season?  Honestly I don’t.  I think he will play enough to help take someone’s team to the playoffs.  Winning the league because of Gronkowski is highly unlikely though.  If you draft Gronkowski this year.  Pay very close attention to his injury status each week.  Pay close attention to how many snaps he gets each game.  The Patriots might start him even if he’s hurt to confuse Defences.  The last thing you should do, and this is a must.  Draft a second Tight End in the late rounds with some upside as a backup.  Someone like Tyler Eifert, or Charles Clay should be available.  Just in case Gronkowski gets seriously injured again.

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Sports Fanatics play Fantasy SF-9 DeMarco Murray

The Top 100 highlights

My seventh selection for the Top 100 highlight series from the 40-31 group is

DeMarco Murray

DeMarco Murray’s first year as a Tennessee Titan was definitely a success.  Almost 1300 yards rushing, and 12 touchdowns proved he was a smart acquisition.  Approaching thirty years of age, there are some health concerns.  The Tennessee Titans picked up Derrick Henry in the second round of the 2016 draft as insurance.  Fortunately for Murray, Henry wasn’t really needed last season.  DeMarco Murray has only played a full sixteen game Season twice in his career.  One of those was last season.  Did I mention that Derrick Henry is an absolute beast?  He could be the feature Running Back on quite a few teams.  Instead he gets very few opportunities as DeMarco’s backup.  How long that remains the case is anyone’s guess.

For the time being DeMarco Murray is the key component to the Titan’s offence.  I would expect him to get at least 275 carries, and another 50 catches out of the backfield.  Provided he stays healthy.  Do I expect his production to improve in his second season as a Tennessee Titan?

No I do not.

As I have already mentioned, Murray has only played a full sixteen games twice.  He’s actually been relatively healthy the last three seasons.  I’m just playing the odds.  If the Titans want to keep Murray healthy for the entire season.  That might require them to limit his touches, and give Derrick Henry a larger workload in his second season.  Keep in mind that the Titans begin their Season against some bruising Defences.  Some of the hardest hitters in the league are in those first five games.  It’s so intimidating that I will be targeting Derrick Henry late in every one of my drafts this year.  I also have a feeling that Marcus Mariota will be asked to throw more this year.  The Titans drafted two Wide Receivers (Corey Davis & Taywan Taylor) and a Tight End (Jonnu Smith) in the first three rounds of this year’s draft.  You don’t draft offensive Players that high to have them ride the bench.  Another indication that the Tennessee Titans don’t want to force DeMarco Murray to have to carry the load.  Now if he stays healthy he will finish as a Top 10 Running Back.  That’s a really big if.  Be very careful about when you draft DeMarco Murray.  I’d draft Jordan Howard, Melvin Gordon, or Devonta Freeman before him.  All three of those Running Backs come with serious concerns as well.  I just have a bad feeling about DeMarco Murray.  It’s not that I think he’ll suffer a Season ending injury.  I’m just worried that he will get hurt.  Just enough to give Derrick Henry a real chance to show his potential.  I’m sure Henry is just itching for the opportunity.  It might only take a game or two of evidence before the Running Back situation in Tennessee becomes a time share.

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Sports Fanatics play Fantasy SF-8 Cam Newton

The Top 100 highlights

My sixth selection for the Top 100 highlight series from the 50-41 group is

Cam Newton

Last year Cam Newton made a lot of Fantasy Managers happy for missing their chance to draft him.  He made Fantasy Football analysts like me look like geniuses for telling you to take a pass on him.  He flat out lost Fantasy Managers that drafted him any chance of winning their Fantasy league.  He followed up his MVP year with what most people would consider a relatively poor season.  24 touchdowns with 14 interceptions is poor by any standard.  Matt Stafford wiped the floor with him in Fantasy last year.  You could probably have drafted Stafford 6 rounds after Newton in last year’s draft.

There’s no disputing Cam Newton’s skill, and athletic ability.  Last season he was far from being the Superman he claims to be though.  After watching Von Miller toss him around in Superbowl 50.  I expected a bit of a Superbowl hangover.  I warned people that drafting him based on his MVP year stats was a mistake.  I predicted 4000 total yards, with 29 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions.  In other words I actually thought he would have a better year than he ended up with.  Most people thought my predictions were somewhat harsh.  In the end I was being generous.

So where does it leave us this season?

First of all there won’t be anyone except the most die hard Panthers fan eagerly waiting to draft Cam Newton in the first or second round.  Realistically there are at least seven Quarterbacks that will probably get drafted before Cam Newton.  Should you be the Fantasy Manager that picks him as the eighth QB off the board?

Damn right you should!

Carolina is about to steal a page out of the New England Patriots playbook.  Carolina is looking to become an up tempo offence.  Tom Brady, and Cam Newton have something in common.  They are both ineffective when they get hit.  It disrupts their timing, and effects their decision making process on future throws in the game.  New England successfully minimized this weakness by creating an offence full of quick slants, quick outs, swing passes to the Running Backs, and a balanced Attack.  With the talents of Kelvin Behjamin, Devin Funchess, Johnathan Stewart, Greg Olsen, and Rookies Christian McCaffrey and Curtis Samuel on the roster.  The Carolina Panthers have the necessary pieces to create a quick strike offence.  Cam Newton is by no means guaranteed to thrive in a system that suits Tom Brady.  Then again he adds an additional dimension that Tom Brady won’t ever have.  Cam Newton has proven that he is a formidable threat in the running game.  Now don’t expect him to run for 10 touchdowns in a season again.  That’s probably never going to happen.  Keeping Cam Newton healthy is just too important to the Carolina Panthers to provide him with enough opportunities to find the end zone that many times.  Another 5 rushing touchdowns isn’t out of the question though.  Do you know how many times Tom Brady has rushed for 5 touchdowns in a season?  The answer is never.  Carolina used to rely on it’s Defence to grind out victories against their division rivals.  Those days are over.  They face some of the highest scoring Offences in their division.  If they want to win the NFC South they will need to score a lot of points.  Whether they are able to become an offensive force begins and ends with Cam Newton.  I expect his touchdown numbers to improve over last year.  I expect his passing yards to be much closer to his 2015 total.  Add another season of at least 300 yards rushing, and you have the makings of a top ten Quarterback.

If I am projecting him to just squeak his way into the top 10.  Then why am I encouraging you to draft him as the eighth Quarterback off the board?  Why not wait to try and draft an undervalued QB that’s overlooked later?  It’s all about his potential.  Don’t forget he’s only one season removed from being the MVP.  Cam Newton’s ceiling is ridiculously high.  He is the NFL’s Superman when he wants to be.

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Sports Fanatics play Fantasy SF-7 Jameis Winston

Top 100 highlights

My fifth selection for the Top 100 highlight series from the 60-51 group is

Jameis Winston

Since entering the league Winston has managed to post back to back 4000 passing yard seasons.  His Fantasy numbers last season were better than Brady’s.  Keep in mind that Brady played four fewer games before you get too excited.  One category he definitely exceeded Brady in was total number of interceptions unfortunately.  Jameis Winston threw 18 interceptions last season.  When you compare that to only two for Brady, it’s obviously a problem.  If your Fantasy league penalizes Quarterbacks the usual -2 points for an interception.  Then Jameis Winston flushed an additional 32 points more than Brady down the drain.

Should that be enough to keep you from drafting Jameis Winston?

It’s obvious that the Tampa Bay Buccaneers believe in there number one overall draft pick.  All they’ve done is surround him with talented offensive targets.  Any quarterback in the league would be happy to have the group of skill Players at Winston’s disposal.  Cameron Brate, and O.J. Howard to create mismatches across the middle.  A true WR1 in Mike Evans that most people including me would consider a top 5 Wide Receiver in Fantasy football.  Now you can add DeSean Jackson to the mix. He now provides Jameis Winston with the deep threat he was lacking.  Do I see another 4000 yard season in Jameis Winston’s future?  You don’t need a crystal ball to figure out that the answer is yes.

The Bucs weren’t able to effectively stretch Defences last year.  As a result of that Jameis Winston was forced to throw in to some really tight windows.  It’s no wonder he racked up 18 interceptions.  With the addition of DeSean Jackson Defences won’t be able to simply clog up the first 15 yards beyond the line of scrimmage.  The Tight Ends will have more room across the middle, and Evans shouldn’t face as many double coverages.  The real benefactor here is Jameis Winston.  He won’t be forced to place every throw just perfect, or make as many risky throws.

Now is Jameis Winston a top tier Fantasy QB you should target in your draft?  Well that’s going to depend on what type of QB you are after, and which round you intend to draft them?  If the Quarterback position is something you place a great deal of importance in.  Then grabbing Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, Tom Brady, or Andrew Luck early makes sense.  If you would prefer to wait until later in the draft to pick up a consistent trustworthy signal caller.  Then grab Russell Wilson, Kirk Cousins, or Philip Rivers to play it safe.  Now if you’re like me.  You’ll want a Quarterback on your roster that has the potential to have Boom or bust weeks.   You can probably hold off for a bit and pull the trigger a little later to get Jameis Winston, Cam Newton, or Tyrod Taylor.  Each of these Quarterbacks have the ability to take over a game, and put up huge Fantasy numbers on any given week.  They also have the occasional flop.  Hopefully you are able to draft them late enough that their flop weeks are offset by the amazing Running Backs, and Wide Receivers you drafted earlier.

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Sports Fanatics play Fantasy SF-5 Julian Edelman

The top 100 highlights

My third selection for the Top 100 highlight series from the 80-71 group is

Julian Edelman

Edelman reaped the benefits of being Tom Brady’s favourite target last season.  He had a career best 1106 receiving yards.  This was from hauling in his second highest amount of total receptions in a season with 98.

What’s clearly evident is that Tom Brady has complete trust in Julian Edelman.   All the proof you need is to think back to last season’s Superbowl.  Remember that miracle catch Edelman made to keep the comeback alive.  Not an easy catch to forget is it?  If you haven’t forgotten, then obviously Brady hasn’t.  You can bet your ass the other Fantasy Managers in your league haven’t forgotten it either.  There is definitely going to be a lot of interest in Edelman at this year’s Fantasy draft.  Julian Edelman will probably get drafted a round or two earlier then his statistically projected draft position.  Should you make the reach, and grab him before somebody else does?

I definitely won’t!

Things really aren’t looking good for Julian Edelman’s potential output in 2017.  If you are hoping for a repeat of last year’s numbers, or even better.  Well keep hoping.  Hope real hard because there are a number of things that need to occur in order for that to happen.  The Patriots made a big move in the off season to sign former New Orleans Saints wide receiver Brandin Cooks.  Cooks is 8 years younger than Edelman, has the potential to reach the end zone every time he touches the ball, and has a similar skill set.  Who actually ends up as Brady’s favourite target in the end is anyone’s guess.  There in lies the problem.  Even if Edelman remains as Brady’s favourite target.  Cooks is still going to get a fair number of looks which means less opportunity for Edelman.  Another thing to consider is how many games a banged up, but altogether healthier Gronkowski will play this year.  Gronkowski played only 8 games last year at less than 100%.  As a result he scored a career low 3 touchdowns instead of his usual double digit tally.  You would think that should have provided ample opportunity for Edelman to find pay dirt.  Well it didn’t.  In 16 games Edelman reached the end zone only three times.  That’s a problem for Fantasy owners.  Instead the Patriots gave the ball to their bruising Running Back Legarrette Blount.  Well Blount is now an Eagle.  I still believe that Edelman will be mostly ignored in the Red zone.

Take my advice and let somebody else reach for Julian Edelman.  He is at best a high end WR3.

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Sports Fanatics play Fantasy SF-4 Doug Baldwin

The Top 100 highlights

My second selection for the Top 100 highlight series from the 90-81 group is

Doug Baldwin

After clearly establishing himself as the number 1 Wide Receiver in Seattle in 2015.  Baldwin didn’t have the kind of season Fantasy owners were hoping for last year.  By no means was it an off year for Baldwin.  He still had a career best 94 receptions, and 1128 receiving yards.  So how was that a let down to his Fantasy Football owners?  What I failed to mention was that he scored half as many touchdowns as he did in 2015.  A decrease from 14 touchdowns to 7.  That’s 42 Fantasy points in most formats, for those of you that are keeping track.  Imagine a full roster of players that lost 42 points worth of touchdowns from the previous season.  Chances are you wouldn’t even be sniffing the playoffs.

Doug Baldwin’s lack of touchdown production wasn’t all his fault.  For most of the season Russell Wilson wasn’t playing at 100%.  After slowly increasing Wilson’s pass production year after year, and giving him the go ahead to throw the deep ball.  Seattle chose to reign him in a little last year to protect their franchise quarterback.  If it wasn’t for their lack of a quality running game.  Seattle would have probably dialed the passing game back even more.  So even though Wilson actually threw quite a lot of passes.  The majority of those were short to intermediate length routes.  That’s why Baldwin despite having a career year in receptions, didn’t find the end zone nearly as often.

Am I expecting a further decline this season?  No I am not.  The opposite actually.  This could very well be the year that Baldwin is considered among the elite Wide Receivers in the NFL.  What I am actually expecting is a mixture of his 2015 & 2016 seasons.  A stat line of something like 95 catches for 1100 yards, and 11 touchdowns is highly probable.  I believe that he could actually exceed those numbers.  It will depend on the production of recently acquired Running Back Eddy Lacy though.

Without question Doug Baldwin is a WR1.  I would draft him over Fantasy favourites like DeAndre Hopkins, T.Y. Hilton, and Demaryius Thomas.  With a healthy Russell Wilson back in the huddle.  Look for Doug Baldwin to find lots of room on the outside, and down field.  Another year in the Seattle Seahawks system has Jimmy Graham keeping defences honest so Baldwin won’t have to face too many double coverages.

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The top 100 Fantasy highlights

This is my first entry of the Top 100 Fantasy takeaways.  Each entry will include a single Player selected from each group of 10.  Beginning with my first selection from the 100-91 group.

Adrian Peterson

This will be his first season representing a team other then the Minnesota Vikings.  At 32 years of age it seems like a strange time to be adjusting to a new system.  A Sean Payton New Orleans system which has traditionally been a drop back and throw first game.  Doesn’t sound like somewhere All Day Peterson could thrive does it.  Now wait a minute.  We are talking about Adrian Peterson here.  The same guy that came back after what should have been a Career ending injury for anyone.  Then just imposed his will to the tune of 1700+ all purpose yards with 11 touchdowns.  Considering his average draft position that year, he probably single handedly carried his owners to their Fantasy league playoffs.  Doubt this guy, and it could mean your Downfall.

Well you know what, I’m going to doubt him this year.  Unless he sets himself apart during the preseason, I’m taking a hard pass on Peterson.  It’s not that I don’t believe in his ability.  On the contrary, I believe Adrian Peterson is still a powerful Running Back that deserves respect.  What I don’t believe in is his situation.  Sean Payton is still one of the most brilliant offensive minds in Football.  He has had great success with a number of Running Backs.  The issue is that the majority of these Running Backs succeeded because they were great pass catching Backs.  Darren Sproles, Pierre Thomas, and Mark Ingram were all successful in part to their pass catching ability.  Adrian Peterson is not a pass catching Back.  You are seriously delusional if you think otherwise.  The next issue is that Mark Ingram is still there, and has proven that he can be the lead back.  10 touchdowns last season (a 7-9 Season)  illustrates the point. They also drafted Alvin Kamara in the third round.  Have you seen the tape on this guy.  He’s just too talented to not be utilized by Sean Payton.  Another word of caution about Payton.  He really likes to spread the ball around.  Even if Adrian Peterson ends up as the number 1 Running Back on the depth chart.  There’s no guarantee that he will receive more than 15 touches a game.  For a Running Back that traditionally gets stronger as the game goes on the more touches he gets.  That’s something that you should worry about.  Then there is the question of age.  Most Running Backs begin breaking down at the age of 30.  As I mentioned before, Adrian Peterson is by no means like most Backs.  Still a few injuries have caused concern, and if The Saints find themselves in the hunt for a playoff spot by mid Season.  I wouldn’t be surprised if they further limit his touches in order to keep him fresh for the playoffs.  Great if you are a New Orleans Saints fan.  Terrible if you are relying on him to help you in your Fantasy league.  The last issue, and by no means the least is the Saints brutally horrible Defence.  Last year, and the year before that, and the year before that they couldn’t stop anyone from scoring.  They were so bad in fact, that I’d play bench players over my starters if they were playing against the Saints.  When playing from behind the clock becomes your enemy.  The last thing you want to do is run the ball.  Unless the Saints get their Defence figured out.  Drew Brees will probably finish in the Top 3 in passing yards, and first in attempts again.  Not a great situation for Adrian Peterson.

So am I telling you to totally avoid Adrian Peterson?  No I’m not.  Draft him as your RB3 if you want.  You can start him in a pinch, or as your flex if he has a favourable matchup.  Will I draft him as my RB3?  Probably not.  I’d rather try my luck on a young pass catching Back.  Of course I play PPR (point per reception) leagues so Adrian Peterson’s value is further diminished.

Tomorrow I will highlight another Player from the Top 100 in the 90-81 group.