Tag: Draft

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The Truth about Fantasy Football Drafts – Sports Fanatics Play Fantasy SF-46

The 50/50 Rule

If you have been playing Fantasy Football for a few years you’ve probably heard of the 50/50 rule.  Basically half the Players you draft won’t be on your roster by season’s end.  This isn’t necessarily a fact but you can bet that your final roster will look different if you plan on remaining competitive.  As an example I won my Fantasy Football league last year with three key Players on my Roster I didn’t draft.  I picked up Alvin Kamara, Jerick McKinnon, and Alex Collins during the Season.  On most teams in a 12 team league that Running Back trio would have been amazing.  Did I mention that I had drafted Leonard Fournette in the first Round last year as well!  Now you should also know that this is in a PPR Keeper League and my Keepers were Antonio Brown and Julio Jones.  How could I lose?  Well I did trade Julio Jones away midseason.  It would be impossible to draft a team that strong.  I just made the right trades and waiver wire picks when the opportunity arose.

This year’s draft has already been completed. You can see the condensed online draft with all of my selections on the Cobe Life YouTube channel.

Already my roster has gone through some significant changes.  I felt pretty good about landing Jerick McKinnon with my only pick in the first two Rounds.  That was until he went down with a torn ACL during San Francisco’s last practice of the preseason!  I took a flyer on Martavis Bryant because Oakland gave up a third Round pick to acquire him.  Well I guess Oakland is in the habit of giving away third Round picks because they cut him on final cut day.  In case you haven’t already figured it out, so did I.  I also drafted Dez Bryant, planning on stashing him on my Bench for up to 4 weeks with the hopes a decent team would sign him.  Unfortunately with the injury to McKinnon and my best Running Back on the bench being Mark Ingram (In case you weren’t aware Ingram begins the season on a four game suspension) I was forced to abandon my plan and drop Dez so I could pick up McKinnon’s potential back up Matt Brieda.  With my initial draft strategy in shambles I also decided to hedge my bets at Quarterback by replacing Martavis Bryant with Alex Smith.

So before the season has even begun I’ve already changed 3 of my players from a total of 15 on the roster.  What are the odds that I end up switching four more players over the course of the season?  Pretty damn good.

Safe floor vs High ceiling

There are many Fantasy Football pundits that will talk about the importance of choosing Players with a High ceiling.  Now there are a number of Players with exceptionally high ceilings that are guaranteed to score you a fair amount of points every week.  The more of those Players on your team the merrier.  But what about the Players with High ceilings and seriously low floors?    It’s great when your Flex Player gets you 15 points, but it isn’t much of a picnic when they get you 1.3 points.  This is where Safe Floor Players come in.  In order to understand what your mix of Players should be in your league you need to understand how many points are required to win on average each week.  In my PPR Keeper League it usually takes about 125 points to have a decent chance to win each week.  Your starting roster requirements are 1 Quarterback, 2 Running Backs, 2 Wide Receivers, 1 Tight End, 1 Flex (RB, WR, TE) 1 Kicker, and 1 Defence.  Breaking it down by position the average amount of points you are looking for are QB-20pts, RB-15pts, WR-15pts, TE-10pts, K-7pts, DEF-8pts.  So a totally average week would net you 120pts. So somebody on your roster needs to exceed their weekly average to help guarantee your victory.  Of course some of your players could under perform as well.  So what is the best way to prepare for the inevitable?  The answer is having two thirds of your starting roster as Safe Floor Players.  I would rather a Running Back or Wide Receiver that gets me 10 to 12 guaranteed points every week as my number 2 or Flex than a Player that gets me over 20 points once every four weeks, and less than 10 points the others.  Just cause they have a high ceiling doesn’t mean they are Fantasy gold.  The rest of your roster should be filled with High Ceiling hopefully Safe Floor Players.  A great example of a Safe Floor Player is the Number two Slot Receiver on any team with a decent offense in a PPR league.  They might not catch many touchdowns but they generally catch around 5 passes minimum every week for over 50 yards.  A good High ceiling Player to target is the deep threat Wide Receiver or Bell cow back on a High scoring team.

Don’t Stream just Target

People preach streaming Defenses, Kickers, and even Quarterbacks.  I won’t knock their choice because I’ve done it myself.  It can work provided you find yourself in the right situation to do it.  First of all you won’t have success streaming a particular position if two or more other Managers are streaming that position as well.  You don’t want to find yourself fighting to claim Ryan Tannehill off of waivers because he happens to be playing the New York Jets.  Secondly you need to temper your expectations.  Just because somebody is playing in a favourable match up doesn’t necessarily mean they will finish with a favourable result.  Especially if they aren’t a Top tier talent.  Thirdly it’s sometimes a lot more work thsn it’s worth.  While you are trying to decide which Defense to stream that week your opponent noticed that Carlos Hyde pulled a Hamstring during practice and quickly snatched Nick Chubb as a free agent.  There’s enough to think about during a Fantasy Football season.  Why give yourself more?

Some positions don’t matter

This is one of the most idiotic beliefs in Fantasy Football.  Don’t worry about which Kicker you draft because you can always pick one up in Free Agency.  That’s total horse shit!  Wait until you lose because your kicker on that high scoring offense finds himself in a heavy snowfall in November and finishes with 1 point, while your opponent was laughing his way into the winners column with New Orleans Kicker playing at home inside the Superdome.   Just wait on a Defense because they are too unpredictable from year to year.  Another totally daft statement.  You want to talk unpredictable?  Lets talk about starting Running Backs!  I won my league last year because a number of Top Running Backs got injured.  The Dalvin Cook injury made Jerick McKinnon a marquee starter. Mark Ingram wasn’t at 100% so Alvin Kamara progressed faster than anticipated.  The Top Team in my league on paper lost their considerable advantage when David Johnson injured his wrist in the first game of the season.  You would think that might be enough to scrap the entire season for that team.  Well she still made the Playoffs and won her division.  You know how she did it?  She did it by dominating on Defense.  That’s right!  Not only did she spend a mid Round pick on the Jacksonville Jaguars.  She also picked up the Minnesota Vikings when another Manager dropped them because he was streaming Defenses.  For the rest of tbe season she switched back and forth between the two Defenses depending on which one had the better match up and averaged WR2 numbers!  When did you draft your WR2?  I doubt if it was in the 10th Round!  While everyone else in the league was getting 6 to 10 points per week from their Defense, she was getting 11 to 15.  She drafted Carlos Hyde as her third Running Back because he was undoubtedly the number 1 in San Francisco (safe floor) and he was a serviceable replacement for David Johnson.  So what did that all add up to?  Fantasy Football victories!

Don’t listen to the “Experts”, just use common sense and you’ll do fine.

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The New look of Fantasy Football – Sports Fanatics Play Fantasy SF-44

How times have changed

If you have been playing Fantasy Football for the last decade then you have probably noticed a few changes.  Some of these changes can have a dramatic effect on how your Fantasy Football team performs from week to week.   Despite these changes, many Fantasy Football analysts refuse to adjust their strategies.  Well I can admit that I was resistant to change as well, and held steadfast for a couple of Seasons.  It took missing the Playoffs in my Keeper League for the first time in years to make me adjust my strategy.  The end result speaks for itself, I’m league Champion!  So what changes am I referring to?  In this article I’ll cover the three most important changes that you should be aware of.

Concussion Protocol

If you aren’t aware of how the NFL Concussion Protocol can effect the overall performance of your Fantasy Football team?   You need to pay close attention to this portion of the article.  For many years both the NFL and Players have misrepresented how often Players get concussed.  What was once considered a mild concussion that would have a Player miss a snap or two, can now cause them to miss the rest of a game.  I’ve already had this occur to key Players on my Fantasy teams in the first quarter of games.  Imagine what your chances of victory would be if your top Running Back was knocked out in the first quarter.  I remember when Players were considered tough if they got knocked out in the first half, and returned to play in the second half.  Nowadays those same Players would be considered foolhardy.  In reality those Players can no longer exist because the NFL Concussion Protocol has already removed them from the game, and quite likely the next game as well.  Something you should be aware of is that the more concussions a Player has had, the more likely that they will be susceptible to another.  Treat the brain like any other part of the human body that can sustain injury.  Some Fantasy Football Managers refuse to draft anyone that’s had an ACL injury.  I’m not one those but I do take injuries into consideration.  If two equally skilled Players are available to draft, and one of them has a history of injuries or concussions then I’ll draft the other Player.  The reality is that injuries are a part of the game.  Most injuries are manageable.  Players will play through minor injuries, and modern medicine has made recovery from major injuries relatively quick.  Concussion Protocol on the other hand is now governed by it’s own set of rules.  It’s because of this that you should be well aware.

Rookie Impact

Rookies have always had a place in Fantasy Football.  The temptation to draft a Rookie was always there, but more often than not didn’t pan out.  Every year the NFL media hype machine would latch on to a couple Rookies and have you believing that they were the second coming.  Very rarely did any of these Players reach their potential in their first Season.  Well like I said in the beginning, times have changed.   Rookies have become far more NFL ready over the last few years.  Especially positions that require more individual skill then scheme recognition.  Fantasy Football Managers shouldn’t be afraid to draft highly skilled Running Backs, or Quarterbacks.  Don’t make the mistake of underestimating the effect a top level rookie linebacker will immediately have on a Defense.  The coaching and Player development at the College level is at an all time high.  The only position that I remain wary of is Wide Receiver.  There are some complex timing routes in the NFL that can take more than a season to master.

Who’s Number 1?

I remember the days when NFL teams had a definitive number 1 Running Back, Wide Receiver, and Tight End.  Draft position was proportional to a Player’s ranking on their team’s depth chart.  Some Managers still approach their draft preparation with that archaic system in mind.  If that was you last Season then you probably missed out on Players like Adam Thielen, or Davante Adams.  If I asked 10 Fantasy Football Managers who they felt would finish with more fantasy points this Season between Diggs and Thielen, Thomas and Sanders, Ingram and Kamara, or Nelson and Cooper.  I bet no two Managers would give the same answers.  What this means to you is that Players that are second on their team’s depth chart could easily out perform top tier Players on other teams.  It’s also worth noting that having two Wide Receivers or Running Backs from the same team on your roster can make total sense.

 

Get with the times

There are a number of other things that have changed but I haven’t drafted yet so you will have to wait to find out.  If you take the three factors I’ve mentioned in this article into consideration this season you should be fine.  Good luck this Season, unless you are in a league against me of course. 😉

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2018 Fantasy Football Breakouts – Sports Fanatics play Fantasy SF-43

My Potential Breakouts

It’s July and the Fantasy Football Season is finally upon us. The usual off season shenanigans have led to a few suspensions. A few Players have announced that they are retiring. There’s always the talk about whether Tom Brady can keep up his high level of play for another year. Well I’m not interested in any of that. During the off season I’m only interested in figuring out one thing. Who are going to be the breakout players next season? Well I have selected eight players that should have the opportunity to put up some serious Fantasy Football numbers this year. I’ll begin with the Quarterback.

QUARTERBACK

Deshaun Watson
– If it wasn’t for the injury he sustained to his ACL in the first week of November last Season there’s no way he would be on this list. Deshaun Watson looked so good in the 7 games he played that I made a pretty big trade for him after week 5. He was on pace to eclipse 4000 yards and 40 touchdowns. I’ll take those numbers any day. Had he been healthy he could have finished the season with more fantasy points then Tom Brady. That’s all it will take for Deshaun Watson to have a breakout season. He just has to stay healthy. I’ll definitely be targeting him in drafts. There’s a good chance that a lot of Fantasy Football managers will be worried about picking a player coming back off a torn ACL. Well I’m not. Modern medicine has made the career ending ACL injury a thing of the past.

WIDE RECEIVERS

Josh Gordon
– I really struggled with whether I should include Josh Gordon in this list or not. In 2013 he put up amazing numbers. He had 87 receptions for 1646 yards with 9 of those being for touchdowns, and got selected to the Pro Bowl. So can a player who has demonstrated that kind of ability be considered as a potential 2018 breakout? The answer is yes. Josh Gordon finds himself in a rather unique situation after missing almost three Seasons due to suspensions for violating the NFL’s substance abuse policy multiple times. He finally returned to the field for the first time since 2014 at the end of last season. Although we didn’t get to see much of him. It was enough for me to recognize that although he’s been away from the game for awhile, his skills haven’t diminished. With an improved situation in Cleveland, and a much better Quarterback throwing him the ball. This could be the official return of Josh Gordon as a truly dominant Wide Receiver to the NFL. I would draft him as a high end number 2 with upside, or a low end number 1 if I went RB – RB to start the draft.

Will Fuller V
– You have already read how I feel about Deshaun Watson. Well I expect Will Fuller to be one of the major beneficiaries of that arm talent. Best of all there’s a very good chance that he will get overlooked by most people and fall in drafts. The main reason that might happen is because he isn’t the number 1 Wide Receiver on the Houston Texans. That honour belongs to what has to be considered one of the top 5 Wide Receivers in the league DeAndre Hopkins. Do I expect him to compete with DeAndre Hopkins for the top spot in Houston? Hell no! What I do expect to see him do is plenty of endzone celebrations. It took a few games for Will Fuller V and Deshaun Watson to get in sync last season but once they did they hooked up for 7 touchdowns in 4 games. SEVEN TOUCHDOWNS IN 4 GAMES! Sorry it just had to be said once more. That’s just ridiculous. Even if you count the first three games where their timing was off, that’s still an average of one touchdown per game. Across a full season that’s 16 touchdowns, or 96 fantasy points in standard leagues and 112 points in PPR before you calculate yardage. Sign me up for some of that. If I don’t draft Will Fuller V somewhere in the middle rounds of my draft I’ll hate myself a little. Trust me when I tell you that you had better be willing to do the same or suffer the consequences.

DeVante Parker
– Parker makes this list because for the first time in his career he should be the man in Miami. He has spent the last couple of seasons being overshadowed by one of my favourite PPR monsters Jarvis Landry. Although DeVante Parker is more of a true number 1 Wide Receiver, Landry was targeted so often in Miami that it didn’t leave much for anyone else to shine. Well Landry is in Cleveland now, and Miami appears to be ready to open up the offense a little more. The Player who should benefit the most is DeVante Parker. He could finish the season as a low end number 1, but you might be able to draft him as your number 2, or even number 3 he’s so under the radar.

Mike Williams
– I was a big Mike Williams fan in the 2017 draft, and when he got selected by the Chargers I figured he would have a good rookie season. Well a series of injuries prevented that from happening. I did see just enough to know that I was correct about his ability. Missing most of his rookie season could actually be a blessing in disguise. Wide Receiver is one of the most difficult positions to transition into the NFL with. They need to learn a whole new playbook. The catch windows are smaller. The Cornerbacks are smarter, faster, and bigger. They need to get in sync with a new quarterback. There are a lot of reasons why I generally don’t draft rookie Wide Receivers. Well Williams has had a full Season to study the playbook, and get a feel for the offense. I’m sure he’s spent a lot of time with Philip Rivers to get a sense of his timing. I just have a feeling that although Keenan Allen is Rivers’ number 1 target. It’s my belief that Williams will get a lot of targets in the endzone. Do yourself a favour and draft him.

JuJu Smith-Schuster
– This probably won’t come as much of a surprise to anyone. With a name like JuJu Smith-Schuster it’s hard to miss his highlight reel catches from last season. I’m not even sure the Pittsburgh Steelers knew what kind of a talent they had in JuJu until about midseason last year. That’s why I believe that although he had a great season last year, JuJu Smith-Schuster could have an even better one this year. His targets per game doubled in the second half of last season. Those kinds of target numbers should continue from Week 1 of this Season. I’m sure the Steelers have made some changes to their playbook to specifically target him more this season as well. It might require a bit of a reach in some drafts to get him but he might be worth it.

RUNNING BACKS

Dalvin Cook
– Dalvin Cook is another rookie who was on his way to having a great Fantasy Football Season when he got sidelined by injury. Like Deshaun Watson in suffered a torn ACL and only got to play in a few games. In those few games we got to see a Running Back that was strong through the line, elusive, and could catch out of the backfield. In the four games he played he went over 100 scrimmage yards twice while splitting time with Jerick McKinnon and Latavius Murray. Now McKinnon is gone, and although I do expect Latavius Murray to get some of the short yardage work. Dalvin Cook is sure to be the lead back in Minnesota. The addition of Kirk Cousins with his ability to throw the deep ball will only help create additional space at the line of scrimmage. I expect Dalvin Cook to have an exceptional season.

Derrick Henry
– I am a huge Derrick Henry fan. I have been since before he entered the league. He is an absolute monster of a Running Back. If you are a fan of Marshawn Lynch, then pay attention to Derrick Henry because he should be the next “beast mode” in the NFL. As a Tennessee Titan he was forced to take a back seat to DeMarco Murray. It’s only for that reason he hasn’t already established himself as a number I Running Back. This Season I expect the Tennessee Titans to finally utilize him as their lead back which will mean more touches, more opportunities, and more touchdowns. By midseason if he isn’t on your roster, you will be trying to figure out a way to trade for him. Don’t put yourself in that position. Just draft him when you have the chance.

Hopefully I’ve provided you with a little extra ammunition against the other Managers in your league.  Good luck this Season.

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All Mocked out – Sports Fanatics play Fantasy SF-41

I’ve had enough already!

One week left to the NFL draft and I’ve probably seen 30 mock drafts by now.  It’s actually more than 30 but eventually you just stop counting.  It’s bad enough that every online NFL News website has at least 3 mock drafts posted by now.  When you factor in that the NFL Network has a show that’s been running all month that’s dedicated to analyzing each and every analyst’s personal mock.  The subtle differences become lost, and essentially meaningless when you’ve heard so many reasons why Cleveland should take Josh Allen, or maybe Sam Darnold.  Maybe  Saquon Barkley is the right choice, or Josh Rosen looked really good at his pro day.  Definitely one of those guys should be the first player taken in the draft.  Unless you are in agreement with the analysts that believe Baker Mayfield is the sure thing.

Hopefully I wasn’t being too subtle

Who knows how many more mock drafts I will have the unfortunate opportunity to experience before the actual draft puts an end to it.  If you actually believe that any one of the mocks you’ve had the displeasure of seeing is right?  Well then I have a mint condition numbers matching frame off restoration 1952 Chevrolet Corvette for sale that you might be interested in.

Really!  No not really.

In case you aren’t an afficionado of classic American automobiles.  It might interest you to know that the first Chevrolet Corvette was unveiled in 1953.  There’s no such thing as a 1952 Chevrolet Corvette.  Just as there’s no such thing as a correct mock draft.  That’s why they are called MOCK drafts!

MOCK adjective : not authentic or real, but without the intention to deceive.

In layman’s terms it means some totally made up crap.  It’s purpose isn’t really to educate.  The primary purpose of a mock draft is to entertain.   If that truly is the case then I just have to say.  The majority of analysts are doing a pretty poor job.

Don’t focus on the Player.  Focus on the situation.

When you are making predictions that you admit aren’t authentic or real.   It wouldn’t hurt you to make predictions like Baker Mayfield third overall to the New York Jets.  Then extrapolate that his youthful exuberance, and competitive spirit will win him the starting job.  Teddy Bridgewater will be cut, but signed almost immediately when Sam Bradford gets injured in the preseason.  Bridgewater goes from being the third string Quarterback in New York to leading the Arizona Cardinals back to the playoffs.  Now that’s a mock draft pick that I would be interested in hearing about.  Unfortunately that’s not going to happen because the NFL analysts are afraid of making mock predictions that are too far from being possible.  The irony is that none of their mock drafts really are.

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We are the Champions – Sports Fanatics play Fantasy SF-37

Consistency wins

(Cobe Life has recently switched to a new Subscription service.  I strongly advise current Subscribers to resubmit their follow request)

In both of my featured Fantasy Football leagues the highest average scoring team in the League won the Championship.  All is right in the Fantasy universe.  If you have played Fantasy Football for a few years you will know that that isn’t always the case.  It’s Fantasy Football, so absolutely anything can happen.  What makes the right thing happening so special this Season is that my Grid Warriors team was the highest scoring team in the Gridiron Pros Fantasy Football League.  Which means I have retaken the Championship in my longest running Keeper league.  😁 I managed a fourth place finish in the other feature league.  I lost the semi-final to the eventual Champion Texas Proud.  Trust me when I tell you that it didn’t come as a surprise.  I predicted them to win it all Mid Season.

Top 6 Final standings

Gridiron Pros

True Fanatics

Coming out on top as the eventual Champion this Season was especially special.  There were an unprecedented amount of Star Player injuries, underperforming, and overperforming teams, and amazing rookie seasons.  Who would have predicted that the Jacksonville Jaguars would make the playoffs, and the Dallas Cowboys or Denver Broncos wouldn’t.  Some of the top performing Quarterbacks at the end of the Season were backups at the beginning.  Finishing first this year means you stayed one step ahead of it all.

Dawn of a new age

I hinted in my last Fantasy post that Fantasy Football has been dramatically changed.   For at least the last five Seasons the primary focus of Fantasy drafts have been about Running Backs.  Year after year it seemed like the number of quality Running Backs continuously diminished.  More teams adopted the Running Back by committee approach.  Utilizing two or three Running Backs each and every game.  Reducing the value of each back to fantasy irrelevance.  The NFL has slowly transitioned into a passing league.  Further limiting the value of Running Backs.  Their increased chance of injury coupled with the concussion protocol system means that most of the top Running Backs will miss at least a few games.  If you didn’t draft a quality RB early you were really hoping to get lucky with a backup, or fantasy relevant third down back.  Well next year things are going to be a lot different.  The recent crop of star rookie Running Backs, backups that excelled when given an opportunity, and teams that have switched to a Run heavy offence will dramatically change next Season’s draft.  Coming in to this Season there was only about 10 potential high value Running Backs.  In a 12 team League which I consider to be the most competitive that left very few to go around.  By the time you draft next summer things will be much different.  I can count on at least 20 high quality Running Backs being available in next Season’s draft, and that’s not including Rookies.  If Ezekiel Elliott, Leonard Fournette, and Kareem Hunt haven’t convinced you how important a Rookie Running Back can be to your team then you probably shouldn’t be playing Fantasy Football next Season.  There’s at least another 10 after the first 20 that will be fantasy relevant, and could help you win a Championship.  Gone are the days of the First Round Running Back pick, or you’re in trouble drafts.  With that many quality Running Backs available you can afford to wait until the third Round before you draft your first RB.  It is my belief that the NFL currently has more star power now at every skill position than it’s had in over a decade.  The only skill position that’s at all lacking is Tight End, and it’s the least important in Fantasy.  My Grid Warriors team won this Season with a combination of Charles Clay, Hunter Henry, Eric Ebron, and Austin Hooper.  That’s how unimportant it is.  Due to the wealth of talent there’s only one draft strategy that’s viable in my opinion next Season.

Take the best Player available!

Position picking will be far less important next year than in years previous.  Where I used to be concerned about drafting a Top 10 Running Back in either Round 1 or 2, it won’t matter now.  If you drafted a stud Wide Receiver in Round 3, and when your fourth Round pick comes around there’s another great WR.  Don’t even think twice about it, draft him.  I used to stack my bench with Running Backs in case my first or second rounder went down with an injury.  Trust me when I tell you that I won’t be doing it next year.  There are so many quality backups that I’ll pick one up off the waiver wire when I need one.  Managers would stress over when to draft a Top tier QB.  Well let me be the first to tell you that next Season should have you stress free.  There were so many great QB performances this year that picking one early doesn’t make sense at all.  Next Season should actually be better.  I guarantee that a number of Backup Quarterbacks that were given a chance to strut their stuff will be full time starters on another squad nest Season.  It was already leaning that way the last couple of Seasons.  So much so that I was able to draft Matthew Stafford in the 10th Round this Season as my primary Starter, and used both Tyrod Taylor as a backup early in the Season, and Blake Bortles later in the Season.  Blake Bortles was in my lineup for the Semi-final and Championship games by the way.  Blake Bortles!  As next Season draws closer I’ll go into far more depth about each position, and why drafting the best available is your only option for success.

So don’t forget to subscribe!

(Cobe Life has recently switched to a new Subscription service.  I strongly advise current Subscribers to resubmit their follow request)

 

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The Road to Victory – Sports Fanatics play Fantasy SF-33

You could win your Fantasy League if

… you drafted Adam Theilan as a backup Wide Receiver.  Adam Theilan has gone from a boom or bust secondary option to the undisputed number one Wide Receiver in Minnesota.  He has more Fantasy points than A.J. Green, Julio Jones, or Michael Thomas.  Guaranteed he was drafted at least 3 Rounds after any of those Players.  Whoever has them on their Roster got a ridiculous deal.

… you took a chance and drafted Leonard Fournette when the other Managers didn’t trust a Rookie to succeed in Jacksonville.  Fournette has been given every opportunity to succeed.  The Jaguars truly treat him the way a featured Back is meant to be treated.  Lots and lots of carries.  DeMarco Murray, Carlos Hyde, Marshawn Lynch, and Devonta Freeman were all being drafted ahead of him in a lot of Leagues.  He’s out paced them all.

… you have any two skill position Players from the New Orleans Saints on your squad.  It used to be that the Saints Wide Receivers, and Running Backs couldn’t be trusted week to week.  Drew Has a tendency to spread the wealth so to speak.  Well that isn’t the case this year.  Michael Thomas, Ted Ginn, Mark Ingram, and Alvin Kamara are having Fantasy relevant success each and every week.  Of Drew Brees is racking up the Fantasy points as well.  Even the Defence could potentially help you win a few games.

… you waited until the final Round of the draft, and picked up the Jacksonville Jaguars as your Defence.  Man did you score.  Expected to have a relevant Season.  I don’t think anyone, myself included expected the wrecking crew that the Jaguars have become.  Draft after draft I’ve seen Managers reach for the Broncos, Patriots, or Seahawks Defence.  Sure they all have potential.  None of them have the potential for the huge Fantasy games that the Jags have had.  10 Sacks in a single game was enough to make me a believer.

… you snatched Jerick McKinnon off the waiver wire, the second Dalvin Cook went down.  I’m beginning to believe that any Running Back could be a success in Minnesota.  Similar to how affective the Broncos zone blocking Offensive line was in 90s.  What makes McKinnon even more of a threat is his pass catching ability.  In the rare case that a Defensive line closes the Running lanes, McKinnon goes from sharing snaps with Murray to becoming the lead Back.

… you didn’t listen to all of the negative hype around Larry Fitzgerald’s age.  It’s almost like people thought last year was a fluke.  Fitzgerald is like a fine wine.  He only gets better with age.  Especially in PPR formats.  It’s no fluke that he’s about to have back to back 1000+ yard Seasons.  Fantasy is all about opportunity, and opportunity is all about targets.  Since the Arizona Cardinals moved Fitzgerald to the slot, his number of targets have gone nowhere but up.  He recently signed a one year extension to come back next year.  I won’t hesitate to draft him.

… you kept looking for the next breakout Player while others remained passive.  As a result you picked up Ju Ju Smith-Schuster.  What some may have seen as a flash in the pan has become one of the top targets on arguably the Leagues most potent Offence.  Even though the Steelers are yet to have a breakout high scoring game.  It isn’t for a lack of Fantasy scoring.  All it would take is some better Red zone execution, and the Steelers skill Players will take their Fantasy Managers to the Championship.

… your Quarterback is a second year Starter.  Carson Wentz, Jared Goff, and Dak Prescott have kept up with the Fantasy veterans. They might not have the Fantasy points ceilings of Tom Brady, Drew Brees, or Matt Ryan.  Chances are good that they didn’t cost you anywhere near as high a Draft pick as those well known names.  So provided you made a few smart picks in the early Rounds.  Your Fantasy roster should match up well with anyone of these signal callers as your QB.

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A Season of Injuries – Sports Fanatics play Fantasy SF-31

Somebody call the school nurse

This is beginning to become a serious problem.  Injury has always been a part of football.  Not a week passes without somebody taking a trip to the hospital.  The most susceptible to it are the guys who battle it out in the trenches.  The offensive and defensive linemen.  Losing a Left tackle to injury can have an adverse affect on the Fantasy production of a few Players, but it doesn’t create holes in your roster.  Just like the loss of a starting Middle Linebacker can have a positive affect on opposing Running Backs or Slot Receivers.  Of course it doesn’t affect your roster much, if at all.  This Season has seen a serious increase in the number of Fantasy relevant skill Players going down to injury.  It’s the worst I’ve seen as a Fantasy Football enthusiast.

Fallen Stars

Aaron Rodgers – Considered by many football analysts to be the best player in the NFL today.  The Green Bay Packers looked like a team that could potentially win their division.  Now with Aaron Rodgers lost to injury they could potentially finish last.  The loss of Aaron Rodgers is huge in Fantasy.  In order to have him on your roster.  You would have had to spend a high draft pick on him, while your opponents were snatching up the top Running Backs.  So you didn’t just lose your top QB, but missed on a high end RB as well.  In both of my featured Fantasy Leagues the Manager with Aaron Rodgers on their roster is essentially out of the running.

Deshaun Watson – Watson wasn’t expected to have the kind of immediate fantasy impact he had once he took over the starting job.  So in all likelihood he didn’t cost anyone a high draft pick.  Well except me of course.  I traded away a second round pick for next season to acquire him in my Keeper league.  It’s a major loss for Houston.  They looked like a team that finally had a chance to outscore opponents.  Watson was a great late Round pick, or smart waiver wire acquisition for most.  Unfortunately whatever you gave up to get him is probably worth a lot more now.

David Johnson – The consensus number one pick in Fantasy Football didn’t last long.  There’s still a slim chance he returns from injury to potentially make a difference in your Playoffs.  Really big emphasis on slim though.  In his absence his replacement has actually gained some Fantasy relevance.  If you took a flyer on Adrian Peterson, well lucky you.  For the Manager that drafted David Johnson first overall, well better luck next year.

Odell Beckham Jr – Easily one of the most exciting Wide Receivers in the league.  The loss of OBJ seriously hurts the New York Giants chances of making the playoffs, and whoever drafted him in your league as well.  Predicted to finish the Season as a top 3 Wide Receiver, OBJ definitely left a glaring hole on somebody’s roster.

Julian Edelman – Predicted by most to have another great year.  Especially after his great performance in last year’s Superbowl run.  Edelman didn’t get the opportunity to even play a single game in the regular season.  A huge blow to the defending Champion New England Patriots.  His injury happened late enough in preseason for his injury to start some Fantasy teams on the back foot as well.

Dalvin Cook – Going into this season there were four Rookie Running Backs of particular interest to Fantasy Managers.  Leonard Fournette, Christian McCaffrey, Joe Mixon, and Dalvin Cook.  The two with the most obvious opportunity we’re Fournette and Cook.  Fournette was obvious because the Jaguars spent the fourth overall pick on him.  Cook was obvious because the Vikings let Adrian Peterson go in the off season.  Both of them got off to great starts.  Unfortunately for Cook his season was cut short by injury.  Unfortunately for his Fantasy owners RB depth is getting increasingly shallow in the NFL.

Pierre Garcon – When Garcon went to San Francisco I couldn’t help but see huge PPR potential.  I don’t think I was alone in that.  As a mid to late Round pick Garcon was producing way above his draft position.  Of course all good things come to an end.  So Managers will have to settle for only one WR1 on their rosters.

Backups of backups

I’m actually stunned by some of the Players I’ve had to start, or play against in Fantasy this year.  Orleans Darkwa, Ju Ju Smith-Schuster, Marquise Lee, Cooper Kupp, and Jermaine Kearse have all been Fantasy relevant because of injuries to other players.  The waiver wire has been like prospecting for gold this season.  Every week there’s the potential for another breakout player because of an injury to a star player.  I usually pick up only one or two key Skill Players off waivers each Season.  This year I’m trying to land the next backup, soon to be starter every week.

It’s still Football

The last decade has seen a huge increase in the number of additional rules implemented to protect the safety of the Players.   The reality is that no matter how hard you try.  Football will always be a dangerous game.  Very few injuries ever happened as the result of vicious tackles.  The worst injuries happen by total accident.  Simply planting your foot wrong when trying to make a quick cut can result in a torn Achilles, or ACL.  Outside of being totally lucky, the only true path to victory is roster depth.  That applies to actual NFL teams, or your Fantasy team.

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Sports Fanatics play Fantasy SF-19 True Fanatics Draft analysis

Draft Recap

The draft took place at 9:00pm EST Monday August 28 on NFL Fantasy.  I manage the Cobe Life team.  With the third pick in the Draft, my Strategy going in was to Target Antonio Brown in the first, and then grab the best RB available in the second.  Like every Draft your plans can change in a flash.  Obviously my Strategy changed completely.

Round 1

My Pick: with Le’Veon Bell still available it became an automatic selection for me.  So much for targeting Antonio Brown in the first.

Biggest surprise: Aaron Rodgers going second overall surprised everyone.

Pick of the Round: it was more luck than wisdom but Le’Veon Bell third overall was a slight steal.

Round 2

My Pick: so my Strategy flipped from the best RB to the best WR.  Doug Baldwin was the best WR available in my opinion.  An argument could be made for Brandin Cooks, but he is unproven with Brady.  His role in the Patriots Offence is questionable as well due to the Edelman injury.  I prefer to pick sure things early, and you can be sure that Doug Baldwin will remain as Russell Wilson’s top target.

Biggest surprise: with the final pick in the second Round, Muh Feelins selected Marshawn Lynch.  Beast mode’s coming off a one year hiatus, and his final Season with Seattle was far from stellar.  Definitely a gamble to take him in the second Round.  Will it pay off?

Pick of the Round: with the 17th pick overall, Watch it Burn picked Jordy Nelson.  In my opinion Jordy Nelson is a first Round talent.  There are concerns about his age.  In a redraft league age isn’t that much of a consideration.  Nelson’s familiarity with the Green Bay Offence, and Aaron Rodgers is Fantasy gold.

Round 3

My Pick: with my Draft Strategy out the window.  I figured why not mix things up a bit, and do something I almost never do.  Draft a Top tier Quarterback early.  So I pulled the trigger on Tom Brady.  I figured with Le’Veon Bell already on my Roster.  The Brady/Bell combination would give me a matchup advantage over most of the league in the QB and RB positions.  As long as I drafted a decent lead Running Back next.

Biggest surprise: with the 35th pick overall Breton selected Joe Mixon. There is a lot of hype surrounding this year’s RB rookie class.  They are Rookies though.  Last I checked Jeremy Hill, and Giovanni Bernard are still on the Bengals roster.  Mixon will have every opportunity to be the number 1 Running Back, but what does that really mean?  How many touches a game will he get?  Is Bernard who’s proven himself to be a great pass catching Running Back going to be the go to guy on third downs?  What is Hill’s role?  Does he still get goal line work?  That’s just too many questions for Round 3.

Pick of the Round: with the 32nd pick overall to Watch it Burn.  Lamar Miller is a great selection at this point in the Draft.  Beginning his second Season as Houston’s lead Running Back.  Lamar Miller should have a breakout year.  With a new Quarterback leading the way I expect Miller to get a heavy workload.

Round 4

My Pick: after picking Tom Brady in the third Round, I knew my next pick was going to be a Running Back.  The two I was considering were Bilal Powell and Kareem Hunt.  I chose Bilal Powell because I see him as the New York Jets only offensive weapon.  He could potentially be their top Running Back, and top Receiving target.

Biggest surprise: with the 44th pick of the Round, Aegon Targaryen selected Matt Ryan.  Sure he is coming off an MVP Season.  That Season was unlike any other Season he has ever had, and The Falcons begin this Season with a new Offensive Coordinator.  If his numbers regress to his career averages.  Matt Ryan is projected as more of a mid to late Round selection.  At this point in the Draft he had better have another great Season.

Pick of the Round: with the 38th pick overall, Breton selected Demaryius Thomas.  There are concerns about the Quarterback situation in Denver.  If it wasn’t for that, Demaryius Thomas would probably get drafted in the second Round.  He’s just that good.  His second Season with Trevor Siemian at the helm can only help him increase his numbers from last year.  

Round 5

My Pick: this was the first pick I made that really had me thinking.  Kareem Hunt was still available.  Tyreek Hill was a tempting target as well.  Instead I went with what I hope will be a repeat of last year’s production with Larry Fitzgerald.  Fitz is still the number 1 target in Arizona.  Time is running out on the core group of Players to make a final playoff push.  The only reason Fitzgerald didn’t retire is because he believes that they can get there.  That’s the kind of motivation I want on my team.

Biggest surprise: three Tight Ends went in this Round.  It’s unusual to see 6 Tight Ends off the board by the end of Round 5.  I didn’t notice it happen, and paid the price later for missing it.

Pick of the Round:  with the 58th overall pick, Texas Proud selected Kareem Hunt.  I could have picked him twice by then but went with proven performers.  Still Kareem Hunt is in a great position to succeed as a result of Spencer Ware’s injury.  As long as he performs decently in the first few games of the Season.  Kareem Hunt will be the featured Running Back in Kansas City.  He actually has a better chance of being the lead Running Back for his team than other Rookies being drafted ahead of him like Dalvin Cook, and Joe Mixon.

Round 6

My Pick: I ended up picking Rob Kelley after the last TE I was targeting went off the Board the pick before mine.  Delanie Walker, Tyler Eifert, and Martellus Bennett went in this Round.  This is when I realized that there had been a run on Tight Ends.  Realizing that only low end Players were left I decided to continue to bolster my Running Back corps.

Biggest surprise: Obviously it was the continued run on Tight Ends.

Pick of the Round: with the 69th pick, Dez Pacitos selected Martellus Bennett.  The last of the quality Tight Ends with very little risk.  Even though this is actually a bit of a reach.  It was a very smart reach to make given the situation.

Round 7

My Pick: Stefon Diggs was just sitting at the Top of the available Players list for far too long.  I kept waiting to see who would take him.  When he was still there in the 7th Round I just had to take him.  I see him finishing the Season in the Top 30 at Wide Receiver.

Biggest surprise: with the 82nd pick, Texas Proud selected the Denver Broncos DST.  Somebody has to pick the first DST.  In the 7th Round is quite early though.  Even if it’s the best Defence in the league, on my favourite Team.  No I’m not bitter about it.  

Pick of the Round: with the 80th pick, Watch it Burn selected Cam Newton.  Only one Season removed from an MVP Season, and additional Offensive Weapons added through the Draft.  Cam Newton has a very high ceiling.  At this point in the Draft his potential is worth the gamble.

Round 8

My Pick: I continue to select overlooked number 1 Players at their position.  Pierre Garcon was a PPR machine in Washington. A team that was blessed with a wealth of targets.  In San Francisco his share of the targets will definitely increase.  Even on a Team that’s rebuilding, that’s a great situation.

Biggest surprise: that Broncos pick in the previous Round kicked off a panic run on DSTs.  The Chiefs, Seahawks, and Vikings were all selected during this Round.

Pick of the Round: with the 93rd pick Dez Pacitos selected Doug Martin.  Sure he’s beginning the Season under suspension.  When his suspension is over though, Doug Martin is unquestionably the number 1 Running Back in Tampa Bay.  A workhorse Running Back in the 8th Round?  Yes please!  He went one pick before I could draft him.

Round 9

My Pick: another Player at the top of his team’s depth chart at his position.  I missed out on Doug Martin.  I wasn’t going to miss out on Paul Perkins.

Biggest surprise: with the 101rst pick Aegon Targaryen selected Kenny Britt.  Not a lot of Fantasy Players have faith in Kenny Britt.  I actually believe that Britt and Coleman make for a decent one two punch in Cleveland.  This is definitely a reach for a Player that doesn’t get drafted in a lot of Fantasy drafts.

Pick of the Round: my selection of Paul Perkins with the 99th pick was an absolute steal. I’ve seen him go in the 7th Round in previous drafts.

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Round 10

My Pick: well I couldn’t wait any longer, and finally drafted my Tight End.  Hunter Henry has the most upside of the remaining TEs.  Sure Antonio Gates is still playing, but Henry is bound to see plenty of targets in the Chargers pass happy Offence.

Biggest surprise: the first pick of this Round was used by Geezer Domination to select Cooper Kupp.  There has been a lot of talk about Kupp’s potential breakout.  That was before the Rams traded for Sammy Watkins though.

Pick of the Round: with the 114th pick Raider in the North selected DeVante Parker.  I honestly believe that the recent addition of Jay Cutler makes Parker better.  Cutler loves to throw the deep ball and Parker is a burner.

Round 11

My Pick: I always carry two Quarterbacks on my roster in case of injuries.  Getting Andy Dalton this late in the Draft makes me feel like I made a mistake drafting Brady early.  I wouldn’t be surprised if Dalton finishes the Season in the Top 6 at his position.

Biggest surprise: Dez Pacitos drafted Thomas Rawls with the 124th pick.  I’m surprised Rawls lasted this long.  I’m not sure if Lacy is the man in Seattle yet.

Pick of the Round: Thomas Rawls

Round 12

My Pick: Marvin Jones.  It’s gamble time.  I expect the Lions to be in a lot of high scoring affairs.  Jones will get his share.

Biggest surprise: Watch it Burn selected C.J. Prosise.  An injury prone potentially third down Back, on a Team with a really good Scrambler at Quarterback who prefers to throw down field.

Pick of the Round: nobody really stands out in this Round.

Round 13

My Pick: Kevin White.  He is now the default number 1 Wide Receiver in Chicago.  In Round 13 that’s enough for me.

Biggest surprise: nothing really stands out.

Pick of the Round: with the 154th pick, Texas Proud selected Zay Jones.  With Sammy Watkins gone.  Buffalo is going to need the remaining Wide Receivers to step up.

Round 14

My Pick: Jacksonville Jaguars DST. Some great Players on this Squad.

Biggest surprise: nothing really.

Pick of the Round: with the 164th pick, Aegon Targaryen selected Chris Hogan.  Hogan has had success filling in for injured Players before.  With Edelman out for the Season.  Hogan will get opportunities.

Round 15

My Pick: Brandon McManus.  Got to love the thin air in Denver.

Biggest surprise: quite a few Tight Ends were drafted in the final Round.

Pick of the Round: the final pick of the draft went to Geezer Domination, and he selected the L.A. Rams DST.  Not bad, not bad at all.

Let me know what surprised you in this Draft.  Which Team won the Draft?

Continue reading “Sports Fanatics play Fantasy SF-19 True Fanatics Draft analysis”
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Sports Fanatics play Fantasy SF-17 Fluid Draft Strategy

The impossible question

Every year I get asked the same question?  In which Round of the Draft should I target so and so?  This is a completely impossible question to answer fairly.  I could tell you what a Player’s Average Draft Position is.  That would tell you which Round they usually get drafted in.  I could tell you a Player’s Fantasy ceiling.  Then compare it to last year’s numbers to see where that would have placed them overall.  You could decide how long you are willing to wait before drafting them based on that.

The truth is that when to draft a particular Player is determined by the flow of your Draft.  I recently had a friend ask me who they should draft 4th overall.  What neither of us could have predicted is that Le’Veon Bell was still on the board when it was his turn to pick.  Other people told him to grab Antonio Brown or Julio Jones.  I told him to just grab the best Player available.  There really wasn’t any other answer I could honestly give him.  My most successful drafts have been when I was able to predict when specific Players were about to be drafted, and when runs on each position would occur.   A lot of preparation goes into this.  The first thing you need to know is the top three tiers of each position.  In a 12 Team league the three Tiers are easy to identify.  Tier 1 are Players that will likely go in the first four Rounds.  Tier 2 are Players that will likely get picked between Rounds 5 and 9. Tier 3 includes every Player who is likely to get drafted from Round 10 till the end of your Draft.  This will help you decide what to do when a run on a specific position happens.  For example, lets say that you have determined that Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, and Drew Brees are the guaranteed first Tier Quarterbacks.  You’ve decided to pass on taking a first Tier Quarterback, and target a second Tier Quarterback instead.  Among the second Tier Quarterbacks you are interested in drafting are Matt Ryan, Marcus Mariota, Kirk Cousins, Jameis Winston, Russell Wilson, and Cam Newton.  As your Draft unfolds,  Aaron Rodgers, and Tom Brady get picked in the First Round.  Somebody else believes that Matt Ryan will repeat his MVP Season, and picks him in the Second Round.  Three Quarterbacks picked in the first two rounds can cause a panic.  So in Round three, four more Managers pick Quarterbacks.  Drew Brees, Cam Newton, Russell Wilson, and Ben Roethlisberger all get drafted.  This only leaves three of your targeted Quarterbacks still available.  So you should draft one immediately right?

Hell no!

Even in a twelve team league it doesn’t make much sense to pull the trigger now.  Seven Managers already have their starting Quarterback.  So you won’t have to worry about them drafting another Quarterback for quite a while.  There’s only four other Managers that could potentially draft one of your targeted Quarterbacks before you.  What you should be doing is figuring out two more Quarterbacks you would be Ok with drafting just in case.  The real advantage you will be getting by waiting is determined by the Players you pick.  While the opposing Managers are in a panic.  You are able to draft Players that are worth more than the Round position you are drafting them in.  So draft the best Player available!  

By the time the draft is done, and every Manager is sizing up their competition.  Get ready to hear things like, “wow your team is stacked”!  Somebody might comment that “you’ve got a great group of Wide Receivers”!  Trust me, people will think you got extremely lucky, or drafted behind an idiot.  When they look through the Draft picks by Round they will realize that they passed on some of your key Players because you didn’t panic when they did.  In a situation like the one I described.   Other opportunities become available to you by exercising patience.  If at least half the Managers in your league reach for a Quarterback.  You could reach for a Player that would provide you with a positional advantage at some point as well.  While your opponents are grabbing second tier Quarterbacks in Round three.  You are free to abandon your plans to grab a Tier three Tight End, and instead take Gronkowski or Kelce in the fourth Round.  Provided you picked the best Player available in the third Round.  You should still match up well against the rest of your league.

If you are interested in joining the True Fanatics League on nfl.com and joining in our weekly Fantasy league discussion.  Apply to be a Manager through our Contact us page.  Tell me why you would be a great addition to the league.  It’s free to join.  You just need to sign up for a VIP Subscription to Cobe Life.

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Sports Fanatics play Fantasy SF-15 Running Backs

Top 8 Running Backs

Most Seasons selecting the Top 8 Running Backs is easy.  This year, not so much.  The Running Back position has dramatically changed over the last decade.  For the most part the requirements they need to become a fantasy stud have remained the same.  A workhorse Back who gets 250+ touches. The ability to run & catch. A favourable offensive scheme.  Last but not least, durability.  Those requirements used to be commonplace.  That’s not the case any more.  Although there has been a resurgence of featured Backs in the NFL.  I’ll divide my Top eight Running Backs into two groups. The first group consists of my Top 4.

David Johnson

David Johnson is the real deal.  Strictly based on talent alone.  It’s hard to argue against him being the best.  Remove David Johnson from the equation, and I can’t even imagine what the Arizona Cardinals offence would look like.  He definitely fits the fantasy stud requirements.  He went over 2000 yards of total offence last year.  That includes 80 receptions.  That’s more than most Receivers!  In David Johnson you essentially get a Running Back, and a Wide Receiver with a single pick.  There’s only one other Running Back in the NFL that can offer you the same.

Le’Veon Bell

In a suspension shortened Season.  Le’Veon Bell had 261 carries, with another 75 receptions.  Had he played a full Season he would probably have eclipsed David Johnson’s combined total.  Where David Johnson is Arizona’s first, second, and third option on offence.  Le’Veon Bell is sharing the field with Antonio Brown, Martavis Bryant, and Eli Rogers on one of the leagues most potent offences.  Touchdowns can go to any one of those Players.  So predicting Bell’s Fantasy production from week to week is a gamble.

Ezekiel Elliot

Ezekiel Elliot had a ridiculous rookie Season.  322 carries for 1631 yards!  He only caught 32 receptions for another 363 yards, but who cares.  Oh yeah he reached pay dirt 16 times.  Did I say it was ridiculous?  Yeah I did.  So he isn’t built in the traditional fantasy stud Running Back mold.  So what!  His numbers resemble that of another Running Back that still managed to lead Fantasy teams to victory, Adrian Peterson.  When you can just grind out 1600+ yards on the ground, and get the ball across the goal line.  Trust me, that’s all you need.  The only thing that worries me is how long he can handle such a heavy workload?  We saw what it did to Adrian Peterson, and he qualifies as a superhuman in my books.  I’m willing to bet that Zeke can keep grinding out those yards for Dallas for at least a couple more Seasons.

LeSean McCoy

A few years back, if you were to ask me who my favourite Player in Fantasy Football is?   I would have answered LeSean McCoy.   I’ve been running a Keeper league for years.  For at least four of those years LeSean McCoy was one of my Keepers.  It took breakout Seasons from Antonio Brown, and Julio Jones plus the move to Buffalo to finally let him go.  I still wonder if I made the right decision.  McCoy is just special.  If he wasn’t a Buffalo Bill he’d challenge for top honors in the Running Back department.  His health is a bit of an issue also.  At 29 he has used up a lot of tread on those tires.  His Offensive Coordinators  recognized his talent, and were eager to use it.  Although his touches have decreased somewhat over the years.  It’s been because of injuries, not careful utilization of this star Running Back.

Now on to the other four Running Backs of my Top 8.  Any one of these Running Backs could finish in the Top 3 by Seasons end.  They all have the skill, and situation to succeed.

Devonta Freeman

It would probably come as a surprise to most.  Devonta Freeman is the NFL’s highest paid Running Back.  No way, you’ve got to be kidding right!  Well I’m not, and you know what?  He deserves it!  At only 25 years old his last two Seasons had 1500+ total yards, over 1000 of those rushing, and at least 13 touchdowns.  Keep in mind that those numbers are with Tevin Coleman on the roster getting touches, and touchdowns.  In other words Freeman doesn’t need to completely carry the load like the previous Running Backs on this list.  He’s on one of the most dynamic offences in the league, and fits the scheme perfectly.  Atlanta will be looking to get back to the Superbowl, and recognizing that Freeman is a key piece was the first step.  I wouldn’t worry about a decrease in performance because he got paid.  I actually expect Atlanta to use him more to get their moneys worth.

Melvin Gordon

Melvin Gordon finally showed the ability his high draft price demanded of him last year.  In fairness it was his first Season as the undisputed lead Back for the Chargers.  That might have been all he needed to free up his conscience, and just focus on the job at hand.  If the Chargers are going to get back to having some success in the AFC West.  They are going to need to be able to establish a good Running Game.  Philip Rivers has to face a murderers row of Pass Rushers in that Division.  In order to keep those Defences honest they will have to run the ball, a lot.  Sounds like a perfect situation for Gordon right.  Well it could be.  The Chargers just need to learn how to get out to a lead.  Otherwise Gordon’s opportunities could be limited.

DeMarco Murray

Another workhorse Back who gets the majority of the touches on the Offence.  The risk here is his health.  DeMarco Murray has a history of injuries.  He’s been relatively healthy the last few Seasons, but with such a heavy workload.  It feels like his next carry could be his last.  If he can avoid the injury bug, then Murray is in the perfect situation in Tennessee.  He is the key to the offence.  Whether it’s running through defenders, or catching balls out of the backfield.  Murray has transformed the Titans from an up and coming franchise to a real contender in their division.

Leonard Fournette

I hate doing this.  I hate including Rookies in my Top 8 lists.  Of course I did it last year, and that worked out.  So maybe this will become a habit.  First of all Fournette is a beast.  He had 300 carries in only 12 games in 2015.  He only played in 7 games in 2016 due to injury.  That’s probably a blessing in disguise for the Jacksonville Jaguars, because he will begin this Season fresh.  There has been a lot of speculation about how high his ceiling is on the struggling Jaguars.  Well those same Jaguars were struggling when Maurice Jones Drew was there, and his numbers were relevant.  If you are hoping for Ezekiel Elliot type numbers.  Just prepare to be disappointed.  I don’t expect Fournette to have to carry the Offence on his back.  I see him as more of a short yardage, and goal line Back.  He’ll also get plenty of first down opportunities to establish the run, and wear down Defences.  The addition of Fournette just makes the Jaguars’ Offence better.  They might finish the Season as a losing franchise, but it won’t be for a lack of scoring.  You can be sure that Fournette will get his fair share.