Tag: 2019 Fantasy football

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FANTASY

2019 FANTASY FOOTBALL STEALS

Every Season there are a few Players that get overlooked for any number of reasons. These are the Players that could prove to be the reason you make the playoffs. After completing a number of drafts it has become obvious to me who they are.

Josh Gordon

Everyone knows who Josh Gordon is. When he is playing at his top level he is one of the most talented Wide Receivers in the league. Of course there is the extensive list of off field issues which have led to multiple suspensions.

The league agreed to reinstate him in early August. This was late enough in the off season to limit the amount of chatter about his fantasy impact on the New England Patriots. Josh Gordon is the best WR1 Tom Brady has had the pleasure to throw to since Randy Moss. It took a few games for the Brady to Gordon connection to start working. Once they got their timing down though Josh Gordon became a serious weapon. With Gronk gone Brady needs a reliable endzone target and Gordon will be it. It wouldn’t surprise me if he finishes as a high WR2 in fantasy but he isn’t being drafted as such.

A.J. Green

Here is another Player slipping till later in drafts that could potentially take the right fantasy football team to the championship. A.J. Green has dealt with injuries the last couple of Seasons. He will begin this Season on the sidelines with an ankle injury. He is likely to miss the first 4 games of the Season. He is being drafted in some leagues like even when he returns he will perform like a Flex starter. When A.J. Green is on the field he is a WR1 in Fantasy Football. He is still one of the most difficult Players to defend in the NFL. If you find yourself in the Playoffs and are fortunate enough to be able to start A.J. Green in your Flex spot. Trust me when I tell you that your opponent will feel like things don’t look fair.

Aaron Jones

Will Aaron Jones gets the increased workload that everyone hopes he will get in the new Green Bay Packers Offense? If he does he could finish as a Top 5 Fantasy Football Running Back. With Ty Montgomery gone his number of touches should increase. What everyone in the Fantasy Football community seems to be afraid of is whether new coach Matt LaFleur will make him the featured back, or have him split carries with Jamaal Williams. Even if they do split carries, where Aaron Jones is going in drafts still makes him a high upside RB2 that you can get quite late. In two of the most competitive leagues I’m in I was able to draft him as my RB3. If he gives me RB2 production that’s a steal. If he becomes the featured RB and finishes the Season with RB1 numbers that’s a League winner!

Cooper Kupp

Classic case of Fantasy Football Managers being seriously afraid of Players coming back from injury. The days of torn ACLs ending careers is far gone. Modern medicine has made recovery times shorter, and allowed Players to return with the same ability they had before the injury.

Before Cooper Kupp tore his ACL he was averaging 5 catches for 70 yards and almost a touchdown per game. In PPR that’s 18pts/game. I’ll take that as my 7th Round pick where I got him in a draft last night. Brandin Cooks, and Robert Woods are going much earlier in drafts but don’t provide better upside. When I drafted Cooper Kupp last night I already had Julio Jones, and Tyler Lockett as my Starters. I picked up Dante Pettis, and Mike Williams later as backups. If Cooper picks up where he left off I’m laughing. If he doesn’t it won’t hurt me.

It’s about Value

I’ve said it again and again. Every Player is draftable for the right price. When a total bargain is staring you in the face don’t pass it up. It doesn’t matter what the so called “experts” say. When you find yourself in the League final send them a screenshot with a roster full of Players they told you to avoid.

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FANTASY

2019 FANTASY FOOTBALL DRAFT BARGAINS

Average Draft Positions are Flawed

Anyone that makes there picks based entirely upon Average Draft Position is practically guaranteed to lose. If you have played Fantasy Football for more than 1 season then you should already know that I am right. Then why is it that 90% of the “fantasy football experts” base their analysis on ADP? Then every one of you that tunes into their YouTube, Facebook, Instagram, or Website uses their findings to plan your draft around.

Last season Patrick Mahomes was the top QB but his ADP was around 100th overall. George Kittle finished the season as the number 2 TE but in most leagues he wasn’t being drafted until after the 10th round! In my most competitive league which has been running for over a decade, both Players went way before their Average Draft Position. The Managers have learned in that League that if you see something special in a Player, and you want him on your roster. You have to ignore that Player’s ADP because he could go 3 Rounds earlier easily.

If you really think about it, and look at how we arrive at Average Draft Positions. The Average Draft Position of each Player is determined by calculating where they have been drafted most often in a huge number of mock drafts. This immediately creates two problems. The first is that in every real draft there is 1 winner, and 11 losers in a 12 team league. Yet Average Draft Position is determined by all 12 participants. Obviously the majority of the selections were poor, or absolute crap. The second issue with Mock Drafts in particular is that they provide you with a ranking or grade at the end of it. That grade is based on the projections (educated guess) made by the creator of the software. Well if their educated guesses were correct you could simply win every draft by allowing your website of choice to Auto Draft for you. I think everyone knows that auto drafting rarely works out well.

What Average Draft Position has successfully done is create opportunities for savvy Managers to take advantage of Players who have been incorrectly projected by the software creators, and therefore drafted later by the legions of poor mock drafters.

Veteran Fantasy Gold

There are 4 players in this category that have the ability, situation, and opportunity to provide you with an advantage over your opponents. All 4 of them are going in the 8th Round of drafts or later, and in some cases aren’t even being drafted at all in some leagues.

Adrian Peterson

Undeniably one of the best to ever play the position, and despite his age still puts up fantasy relevant numbers. Last Season he had over 1000 rushing yards, another 200 yards through the air, and 8 total touchdowns. Those are RB2 numbers, and last season he wasn’t even drafted in most leagues. So much for ADP. Sure Derrius Guice is back, but you can’t expect Washington to just drop a full workload in his lap. Not to mention there’s no guarantee that Guice will remain healthy all season. My guess is that at worst Adrian Peterson splits carries with Guice this season. That would make him a viable flex starter, and a serviceable backup in case your roster gets diminished by injury. If Guice isn’t 100% then Adrian Peterson becomes an RB2 once again. It never hurts to have a couple of those on the roster.

Tom Brady

Brady has been going undrafted a lot this season, and that shouldn’t be the case. I’m not telling you to make him your stating QB. Draft him as a backup to begin the season, and he’s also a great spot starter against weaker teams. His numbers weren’t spectacular last season, but they weren’t bad either. Everyone keeps harping on about the loss of Gronk but I actually prefer his targets available to him this season. Edelman, N’Keal Harry, Josh Gordon, Demaryius Thomas, James White, and Sony Michel. If the majority of those players stay healthy, and out of trouble that’s ridiculous! Now given those names I know that’s a big IF. What are you really risking though if you select Brady in the late rounds of your draft. You know what the best part is? The Patriots have a history of running up the score against weaker teams. Teams like the Miami Dolphins, Buffalo Bills, and New York Jets. It’s no wonder they get to the playoffs with relative ease every single season.

Larry Fitzgerald & DeSean Jackson

I listed these 2 veterans together because they are in similar situations. Both of them are playing for a team they feel incredibly comfortable with. Both have the ability to completely take over a game when given the opportunity. Both have to adjust to an offense they weren’t in last season. The best part is that both are being overshadowed by other players on their team in drafts. Christian Kirk is being drafted way before Larry Fitzgerald in most drafts. I understand the upside with Christian Kirk but sometimes a high floor is what’s needed, and Fitzgerald gives you that. With a new QB, Offense, and Head Coach you might want to feed one of the most sure-handed receivers in history the ball. Just saying.

With Carson Wentz coming back from injury the Philadelphia Eagles will do whatever they can to keep him healthy. One such way is to keep Defenses honest. I expect a balanced attack between Run and Pass. The only way you can maintain that balance and win games is to have success at both. Last season that wasn’t the case so the Eagles addressed it in the off season. To improve their run game they brought in Jordan Howard, and drafted Miles Sanders. To prevent defenses from stacking the box they brought back DeSean Jackson. You want to limit the pressure on Wentz, and provide him with a deep target to take the top off defenses. There’s no better way than adding someone like DeSean Jackson. He will play a similar role for Wentz that Hill plays for Mahomes, and you saw how that worked out.

Opportunity is knocking

Two more players that find themselves in advantageous situations are Dede Westbrook, and Marquez Valdes-Scantling.

Dede Westbrook had a decent season in his second year with Jacksonville. He finished with 66 catches for 717 yards, and 5 touchdowns. Not bad numbers considering Blake Bortles was under center having a down season. About the only thing worse than Blake Bortles having a down season is Nathan Peterman having one. With the off season acquisition of superbowl MVP Nick Foles things are bound to improve. How much will they improve is the real question< and so far the majority of drafters out there don’t expect much. I would expect a 20% improvement at least, with far more opportunities in the red zone. It wouldn’t surprise me if he finished the season with around 900 yards and 8 touchdowns. His ceiling is significantly higher though. I’ll draft him with confidence.

Marquez Valdes-Scantling could very well be Aaron Rodgers number 2 target this season. That should be enough to peak your interest right there. He has looked unstoppable in the preseason. Granted it is the preseason but that’s a good indicator that he’s feeling completely confident entering the season. Aaron Rodgers also seems especially motivated this year. The entire NFC should be worried about that. If you can remember the break out seasons that Randall Cobb had as Aaron Rodgers number 2. Then you know what is possible for Marquez this season. 1000 yards and double digit touchdowns aren’t out of the question.

YOU CAN TRUST ADP IF YOU WANT – BUT IF YOU ARE SERIOUS ABOUT WINNING – I SUGGEST THAT YOU DON’T !!!

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Uncategorized

2019 NFL FANTASY FOOTBALL SLEEPERS

Players that could breakout in 2019

This list is in no particular order. These are just a few Players that I believe find themselves in a perfect situation to have a great Fantasy Season. Each one of these Players should outperform their Average Draft Position barring injury.

Andy Isabella

Arizona Cardinals – Wide Receiver

This selection goes against one of my basic rules in Fantasy Football. Stay away from Rookie Wide Receivers! In this particular case I don’t see the risk involved to be nearly as high. First of all the Arizona Cardinals will begin the Season with a new Head Coach, running an entirely new Offense, with a Rookie Quarterback. This negates any chance for preexisting Receiver preference. The Offense being run is essentially a College Football Air Raid Offense, which Andy Isabella should be more familiar with. This particular Offense relies on getting the ball out quick, and utilizes a lot of underneath routes where Andy Isabella truly shines. All of that adds up to what could be an amazing rookie season for Isabella.

Lamar Jackson

Baltimore Ravens – Quarterback

Despite only starting 8 games last Season, Lamar Jackson proved that he could be a valuable Fantasy Football Quarterback. What was most impressive about his performance, was that it appeared as though the playbook was limited to just a few set plays. A lot of what he accomplished was through pure athleticism! Now imagine what he can do with a full off season dedicated to helping him succeed as the starting Quarterback. With his mobility he could finish the Season as the Ravens’ number one rusher. You know that means Fantasy gold. I see him as a late Round bargain that could become your weekly starting Quarterback.

Mike Williams

LA Chargers – Wide Receiver

There’s no denying that Mike Williams has the size (6’4″ 220lbs) and big play ability (10 TDs in 2018) to dominate in the NFL. For some reason though I’ve seen quite a few drafts that have him going much later than you would expect. I have seen him fall into the 6th or 7th Round in 12 team leagues. On what should continue to be a high powered offense with Philip Rivers at the helm. Mike Williams should continue to have a lot of opportunity. Especially in the Red zone where Keenan Allen usually draws dounle coverage. It wouldn’t surprise me at all if Mike Williams finishes the Season with more Touchdowns than Keenan Allen, who is being drafted much earlier.

Courtland Sutton

Denver Broncos – Wide Receiver

If you have followed me long enough then you will know that I’m a Denver Broncos fan. So you might jump to the conclusion that my selection of Courtland Sutton is a touch biased. It isn’t and I’ll explain why. Courtland Sutton will be receiving passes from a proven Quarterback for the first time. I’m not a huge fan of Flacco but he is a veteran starter with a Superbowl ring. Courtland Sutton will begin the Season on top of the Denver Broncos depth chart. He began last Season as the third option. Unlike other Players that suddenly find themselves as the number one target in the off season, Courtland Sutton got a taste of what it’s like last Season, and performed well. The Denver Broncos are the only team in the AFC West that are seen as a Defensive powerhouse. I like the Chargers Defense for Fantasy but in reality they allow too many big plays. Courtland Sutton looks poised to have a breakout season.

Marlon Mack

Indianapolis Colts – Running Back

Marlon Mack appears to be on paper a slam dunk pick at Running Back. The Indianapolis Colts look like a lock to make the AFC Championship. Not only do they possess a high scoring Offense, but their young Defense is dominant as well. Marlon Mack had a lot of competition last Season, and proved he was the starter. He improved in every statistical category. The Colts should be playing with a lead in the majority of games. This could lead to an increased workload for Marlon Mack which means more fantasy points. If I can get Marlon Mack as my RB2 I’ll be thrilled.

Jared Cook

New Orleans Saints – Tight End

Quite a few Fantasy Football analysts would argue that last Season was Jared Cook’s breakout Season. 896 yards with 6 touchdowns for a Tight End is excellent. So far this Season Jared Cook is being drafted as though last Season was an anomaly. There is reason to believe that his numbers this year could be better. He leaves Oakland, and goes to New Orleans. That’s an upgrade. He will now be catching passes from Drew Brees instead of Derek Carr. That’s also an upgrade. He will be catching passes in the Superdome instead of Oakland-Alameda Coliseum. That’s definitely an upgrade. Jared Cook has the potential for a very high ceiling this Season.

Kirk Cousins

Minnesota Vikings – Quarterback

Kirk Cousins was on my list of potential breakout Players last Season. I targeted him in all of my drafts, and didn’t get him in a single one. Did he breakout? No not really, but he did have a good fantasy Season. He is now in a position to have a great Fantasy Season. With a full Season and off season of preparation he should know the Offense perfectly. He should be totally in sync with his two star Wide Receivers Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen. With Dalvin Cook back his completion percentage is guaranteed to improve, and it should yield some very easy passes for touchdowns as well. Vikings are also in win now mode so Cousins’ is expected to perform.

Let me know if there is another Player that needs to be added to this list in the comments.