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The numbers don’t lie, or do they?
New England Patriots vs Philadelphia Eagles
If you were to strictly judge these two teams based on their total potential. The Philadelphia Eagles would win Superbowl 52 rather easily. The Patriots only surpass them in two categories, and one of them is debatable. Obviously Tom Brady is the superior Quarterback so the Pats have the edge there.
Advantage – Patriots
Rob Gronkowski would be considered a better Tight End than Zach Ertz by most. Although the actual numbers aren’t much different. They both caught 8 touchdowns during the regular season. Although Gronk has more receiving yards, Ertz has more receptions. I would argue that they are actually even when you evaluate them on paper. Still to keep things from falling into too much of a grey area. I will give the edge to the Patriots at Tight End.
Advantage – Patriots
Now here’s where things begin to get a little one sided. I’m going to begin at the line of attack and work outwards.
When comparing the two Offensive lines the average fan might assume that the group protecting Brady would be the stronger group. Well you would be wrong. One of the reasons why Nick Foles can step in and have immediate success is the strength of the Eagles offensive line. The Patriots have a very good offensive line as well, and are especially good at protecting their franchise Quarterback. They just aren’t as good at all aspects of the game.
Advantage – Eagles
When comparing the two Defensive lines it becomes far more obvious which team is better. Even the casual fan can see the dominance of the Eagles defensive line. They are numero uno against the run. In comparison the New England Patriots are ranked 31rst overall against the run. Sure they have shown an improvement in their last few games. The stats are a bit skewed though because they were playing from behind against teams that were content trying to run out the clock. When you really analyze the numbers though. There’s no team better than the Philadelphia Eagles at controlling the line of scrimmage.
Advantage – Eagles
When comparing the Linebacker units the official depth charts don’t really tell the full story. Injuries have reduced the overall strength of the Eagles group, and recent acquisition James Harrison has been utilized more than his third string ranking would suggest. If you look at which players are actually performing on the field. The unit that will be making more individual plays should be the New England Patriots. Sorry Steelers fans.
Advantage – Patriots
The Running Back comparison was a lot closer before the Eagles signed Jay Ajayi. Used correctly, and Ajayi could end up being the difference in this game. The Patriots are well aware of what LeGarrette Blount can do in short yardage or goal line situations. If it wasn’t for the amount of attention defences focus on Tom Brady. Their group of Running Backs wouldn’t have the space they require to get meaningful yards. There isn’t a top quality Running Back among them.
Advantage – Eagles
When comparing the cornerback units the first thing that stands out is the two former Bills Players that have made an immediate impact. Stephon Gilmore and Ronald Darby are a couple of ball hawks that can make plays. They both have capable corners opposite them. Based upon individual talent the edge would go to the Patriots. Although things aren’t so cut and dry when you analyze the schemes they usually employ. I’ll get to that later.
Advantage – Patriots
Testing those cornerbacks will be two of the more underrated Wide Receiver groups in football. Both of these teams place a premium on spreading the ball around, and utilize their Tight Ends, and Running Backs in the passing game more than most. As a result the actual reception, yards, and touchdown numbers for their Wide Receivers are relatively low. That’s not to say that they don’t play an important role though. Brandin Cooks might be the most talented Wide Receiver on the field on Sunday, but his fellow Patriots Wide Receivers leave a lot to be desired. The Eagles have a great group of Wide Receivers that would be a huge advantage in this category if Tom Brady didn’t make the Patriots WRs perform better than expected.
Advantage – Eagles
When comparing the Safety units it’s difficult to ignore scheme, but I will. If you are only looking at the statistics. Especially big play statistics both for, and against. The Eagles safeties led by Malcolm Jenkins is marginally better. I’m not saying that the New England Patriots are outclassed, because they aren’t. The stats are more a result of the complete Defence as a whole.
Advantage – Eagles
On paper vs on the field
So by my calculations the overall Advantage goes to the Eagles by a score of 5 to 4. That’s really that much of an advantage right? Especially when you could argue that Tom Brady should be worth an additional point. Thus making the two teams even. Well here’s why I believe that the Eagles should be seen as strong favourites to win Superbowl 52. The Eagles should control the line of scrimmage throughout the game. By doing so their superior Running Backs should be more productive than the Patriots group. This will force the Patriots to play a pass heavy offence. Having Tom Brady under center makes this an appealing option except when you factor in the Eagles Defensive scheme. The Eagles play a lot of Nickel defense allowing their Safeties to effectively become free Safeties. Brady makes a living off of reading defences, but when there are more zone defenders than receiving options it becomes a gamble. I expect the turnover advantage will be in the Philadelphia Eagles favour, and turnovers lead to Superbowl Championships.
I expect the Philadelphia Eagles to be leading at half-time like many of the Patriots opponents have. Unlike many of those opponents though, I expect the Philadelphia Eagles Offence to keep the pressure on so their Defence doesn’t have to try and win the game on their own.
Advantage – Philadelphia Eagles
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