The impossible question
Every year I get asked the same question? In which Round of the Draft should I target so and so? This is a completely impossible question to answer fairly. I could tell you what a Player’s Average Draft Position is. That would tell you which Round they usually get drafted in. I could tell you a Player’s Fantasy ceiling. Then compare it to last year’s numbers to see where that would have placed them overall. You could decide how long you are willing to wait before drafting them based on that.
The truth is that when to draft a particular Player is determined by the flow of your Draft. I recently had a friend ask me who they should draft 4th overall. What neither of us could have predicted is that Le’Veon Bell was still on the board when it was his turn to pick. Other people told him to grab Antonio Brown or Julio Jones. I told him to just grab the best Player available. There really wasn’t any other answer I could honestly give him. My most successful drafts have been when I was able to predict when specific Players were about to be drafted, and when runs on each position would occur. A lot of preparation goes into this. The first thing you need to know is the top three tiers of each position. In a 12 Team league the three Tiers are easy to identify. Tier 1 are Players that will likely go in the first four Rounds. Tier 2 are Players that will likely get picked between Rounds 5 and 9. Tier 3 includes every Player who is likely to get drafted from Round 10 till the end of your Draft. This will help you decide what to do when a run on a specific position happens. For example, lets say that you have determined that Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, and Drew Brees are the guaranteed first Tier Quarterbacks. You’ve decided to pass on taking a first Tier Quarterback, and target a second Tier Quarterback instead. Among the second Tier Quarterbacks you are interested in drafting are Matt Ryan, Marcus Mariota, Kirk Cousins, Jameis Winston, Russell Wilson, and Cam Newton. As your Draft unfolds, Aaron Rodgers, and Tom Brady get picked in the First Round. Somebody else believes that Matt Ryan will repeat his MVP Season, and picks him in the Second Round. Three Quarterbacks picked in the first two rounds can cause a panic. So in Round three, four more Managers pick Quarterbacks. Drew Brees, Cam Newton, Russell Wilson, and Ben Roethlisberger all get drafted. This only leaves three of your targeted Quarterbacks still available. So you should draft one immediately right?
Hell no!
Even in a twelve team league it doesn’t make much sense to pull the trigger now. Seven Managers already have their starting Quarterback. So you won’t have to worry about them drafting another Quarterback for quite a while. There’s only four other Managers that could potentially draft one of your targeted Quarterbacks before you. What you should be doing is figuring out two more Quarterbacks you would be Ok with drafting just in case. The real advantage you will be getting by waiting is determined by the Players you pick. While the opposing Managers are in a panic. You are able to draft Players that are worth more than the Round position you are drafting them in. So draft the best Player available!
By the time the draft is done, and every Manager is sizing up their competition. Get ready to hear things like, “wow your team is stacked”! Somebody might comment that “you’ve got a great group of Wide Receivers”! Trust me, people will think you got extremely lucky, or drafted behind an idiot. When they look through the Draft picks by Round they will realize that they passed on some of your key Players because you didn’t panic when they did. In a situation like the one I described. Other opportunities become available to you by exercising patience. If at least half the Managers in your league reach for a Quarterback. You could reach for a Player that would provide you with a positional advantage at some point as well. While your opponents are grabbing second tier Quarterbacks in Round three. You are free to abandon your plans to grab a Tier three Tight End, and instead take Gronkowski or Kelce in the fourth Round. Provided you picked the best Player available in the third Round. You should still match up well against the rest of your league.
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