The Top 100 highlights
My final selection for the Top 100 highlight series from the 10-1 group is
Le’Veon Bell
Could he be the number 1 pick in your Fantasy draft? A good case could be made for him to be exactly that. Should he be the number 1 pick in your Fantasy draft though? Well that’s something we will need to discuss.
Unless you are a emotionally attached to a particular Player. The consensus top two picks in Fantasy are David Johnson, and Le’Veon Bell. Most Fantasy analysts pick David Johnson as their number 1 pick. And why shouldn’t they. In his first full Season as the Cardinals Bell cow Back. David Johnson ran for 1239 yards, caught another 879 yards, and reached the end zone 20 times. Just ridiculous right! Well actually it isn’t as ridiculous as it seems. Consider what Le’Veon Bell achieved in a suspension shortened Season. 1268 yards rushing, with another 616 yards receiving, and 9 touchdowns. Not too shabby is it? Project his averages over a full 16 games, and compare again. Le’Veon Bell’s numbers would have been 1691 yards rushing, with another 821 yards receiving, and 12 touchdowns. Now the comparison doesn’t look so lopsided in Johnson’s favour does it. What about the 8 additional touchdowns though right. Obviously that still makes David Johnson the number 1 pick. Well lets look at this mathematically. 8 more touchdowns is an additional 48 points in standard scoring formats. Le’Veon Bell would have finished with an additional 392 yards of offence which is another 39.2 points in standard scoring formats. If your league provides a bonus for breaking 100 yards rushing or receiving like many do, mine included. Le’Veon Bell would have had at least 5 more 100 yard bonuses than Johnson. My league awarded a 3 point bonus last Season. That’s an additional 15 points. Add it all up and Le’Veon Bell is your number 1 pick statistically.
Well there you have it. Le’Veon Bell is your number 1 pick. Lets hope you get one of the first three picks. If you don’t get numero uno, then lets hope the other two Managers haven’t read my blog. Ok hold on a second. If Fantasy Football was just about the statistical advantage, then why bother playing?
It’s all the intangibles that make Fantasy Football so much fun. It’s the qualitative advantages that eventually decide who wins, or loses. For instance is DeAndre Hopkins a better Wide Receiver than Julian Edelman? Damn right he is. If you think he isn’t then you’re either a big Patriots fan, or the worst talent scout ever. Ever! Statistically though Edelman beat out Hopkins last Season. Of course that’s what happens when Tom Brady is throwing you the ball instead of Brock Osweiler. Brady is the qualitative advantage. So when we look at Le’Veon Bell’s situation versus David Johnson’s. Johnson has one major advantage over Bell. It’s not the Quarterback because they both have true veterans feeding them the ball. They are both on very competitive teams, so they should both get plenty of opportunities in the Red zone. The difference is in their importance to each teams offensive success. Remove David Johnson from the roster, and the Arizona Cardinals suddenly look like a losing franchise. In the four games without Le’Veon Bell last Season, the Steelers went 3-1. The reason for this is the plethora of offensive Weapons the Steelers are blessed with. They don’t need to rely on Le’Veon Bell. Without David Johnson the Arizona Cardinals only proven commodity is Larry Fitzgerald. This is why you can pretty much guarantee that Johnson will put up a decent amount of Fantasy points every game. You can’t say the same about Le’Veon Bell. If Antonio Brown, Martavis Bryant, Eli Rogers, or any one else gets hot then Bell will be hardly used. When the Steelers get out to a huge lead. Which they tend to do a few times a Season. They generally rest Bell, and give his back up a few touches. That’s a very rare occurrence with David Johnson. The Cardinals are a Defence first kind of team. They prefer clock management to total blow outs. Johnson is the man who winds the clock. He doesn’t leave the game until the final whistle blows.
So Draft Johnson ahead of Bell then.
Honestly, they are both safe bets. I’d be totally satisfied with either one. If I had to pick one I’d go with Bell. I have a feeling that the Steelers are going to be unstoppable on Offence this year. As long as Big Ben stays healthy, and I believe he will. The Steelers are going to score early, and often. I believe Bell will get even more opportunities to score during the second, and third quarters. I expect his touchdown numbers to improve. I predict the opposite for Johnson. Defences will begin to stack the box against him. Forcing the aging Carson Palmer to beat them through the air. Palmer’s interceptions have increased over the years. I’m sure I’m not the only one who has noticed. Taking David Johnson out of the equation is how you beat the Cardinals. Johnson will be hard pressed to equal his touchdown numbers from last year.
