Draft Capital
Every Fantasy Sports website, or Fantasy Football analyst prepares for each Season by making a list. Some like myself make many lists, but they all have the same purpose. The goal is to arrange each and every fantasy relevant Player from the most valuable to the least. Then we presume to decipher where the optimum position to draft them is. Now maybe you choose to rely on our analysis or you don’t. Most likely you take what the most popular websites decide, and then make slight adjustments due to personal bias. However you choose to make your draft board. Each Player you end up selecting has a perceived value attached to the Round you selected them in. So what happens when you are setting your line up for the week, and the Running Back you selected in the first Round is facing the Top Run Defense in the league?
That Gut Feeling
How often should we trust our Gut when it comes to Fantasy Football? To arrive at a suitable answer I’ll use both a top level Running Back from last season, and a top level Wide Receiver.
Todd Gurley – Last Season Todd Gurley finished as the Top Player in Fantasy football. In the PPR league I run he finished the Season with a little over 400 fantasy points. He averaged a little over 25 fantasy points per game. Of course that’s what he averaged. There was that game against the Seattle Seahawks Legion of Boom defense where he only gained 50 yards, lost a fumble, and didn’t score a touchdown. He finished that game with 6 points.
So obviously you need to pay close attention to what your Gut tells you right? I’ll get back to that question in a moment. First lets take a look at the Wide Receiver from last year.
Julio Jones – For the past few Seasons Julio Jones has continually been drafted as a top 3 Wide Receiver. Last season was a bit of a down year for him but he still averaged a little over 16 points per game. Of course there was that game against the Minnesota Vikings where he had top cornerback Xavier Rhodes shut him down to the tune of 2 catches for 24 yards and no touchdowns. 4.4 measly Fantasy points for the game. So once again your Gut might have been right. So obviously you should listen to your gut right!
Actually you shouldn’t
What I left out of my analysis of both Players is when they went on to have huge Fantasy games against top defenses. Sure on occasion your best Players that cost you early Round picks will have bad games. The reason you picked them so early is because more often than not they have good games. Even when they are faced off against top defenses. It helps to understand floor and ceiling probabilities as well. A top tier Wide Receiver is always going to get targeted with a few passes, and have a reasonable opportunity to receive a touchdown. The third Wide Receiver on the depth chart can play an entire game and not even get one ball thrown their way. I don’t care who is covering each receiver. The opportunity is still greater with the top tier pick.
There are exceptions
I actually had Julio Jones on my Fantasy team for a portion of last season. If you are wondering if there were any games that I chose to sit him. Well the answer would be yes. Sounds like I’m going against my own advice right. Well before you label me as a hypocrite. You need to know a little bit about my roster. I was fortunate enough to have 3 excellent Wide Receivers on my roster. In order of their value from first to last they were Antonio Brown, Julio Jones, and Jarvis Landry. I started Antonio Brown for every game. My league requires two Wide Receivers to start so sometimes I would sit Julio Jones to start Jarvis Landry I drafted 2 Rounds after him. The starting lineup also has a flex position so sometimes I started all three. The point I’m trying to make is if you have another option that’s almost as good as your primary choice in a far more favourable match up? Then choosing to follow your Gut makes total sense. Your second option will have a far safer floor, with only a slightly lower ceiling.
Good Luck in Week 1
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