Category: FANTASY

I’ve been playing, and winning at Fantasy Sports since the very beginning.  Pay close attention to my analysis, and win big.

Categories
FANTASY Uncategorized

Sports Fanatics play Fantasy SF-19 True Fanatics Draft analysis

Draft Recap

The draft took place at 9:00pm EST Monday August 28 on NFL Fantasy.  I manage the Cobe Life team.  With the third pick in the Draft, my Strategy going in was to Target Antonio Brown in the first, and then grab the best RB available in the second.  Like every Draft your plans can change in a flash.  Obviously my Strategy changed completely.

Round 1

My Pick: with Le’Veon Bell still available it became an automatic selection for me.  So much for targeting Antonio Brown in the first.

Biggest surprise: Aaron Rodgers going second overall surprised everyone.

Pick of the Round: it was more luck than wisdom but Le’Veon Bell third overall was a slight steal.

Round 2

My Pick: so my Strategy flipped from the best RB to the best WR.  Doug Baldwin was the best WR available in my opinion.  An argument could be made for Brandin Cooks, but he is unproven with Brady.  His role in the Patriots Offence is questionable as well due to the Edelman injury.  I prefer to pick sure things early, and you can be sure that Doug Baldwin will remain as Russell Wilson’s top target.

Biggest surprise: with the final pick in the second Round, Muh Feelins selected Marshawn Lynch.  Beast mode’s coming off a one year hiatus, and his final Season with Seattle was far from stellar.  Definitely a gamble to take him in the second Round.  Will it pay off?

Pick of the Round: with the 17th pick overall, Watch it Burn picked Jordy Nelson.  In my opinion Jordy Nelson is a first Round talent.  There are concerns about his age.  In a redraft league age isn’t that much of a consideration.  Nelson’s familiarity with the Green Bay Offence, and Aaron Rodgers is Fantasy gold.

Round 3

My Pick: with my Draft Strategy out the window.  I figured why not mix things up a bit, and do something I almost never do.  Draft a Top tier Quarterback early.  So I pulled the trigger on Tom Brady.  I figured with Le’Veon Bell already on my Roster.  The Brady/Bell combination would give me a matchup advantage over most of the league in the QB and RB positions.  As long as I drafted a decent lead Running Back next.

Biggest surprise: with the 35th pick overall Breton selected Joe Mixon. There is a lot of hype surrounding this year’s RB rookie class.  They are Rookies though.  Last I checked Jeremy Hill, and Giovanni Bernard are still on the Bengals roster.  Mixon will have every opportunity to be the number 1 Running Back, but what does that really mean?  How many touches a game will he get?  Is Bernard who’s proven himself to be a great pass catching Running Back going to be the go to guy on third downs?  What is Hill’s role?  Does he still get goal line work?  That’s just too many questions for Round 3.

Pick of the Round: with the 32nd pick overall to Watch it Burn.  Lamar Miller is a great selection at this point in the Draft.  Beginning his second Season as Houston’s lead Running Back.  Lamar Miller should have a breakout year.  With a new Quarterback leading the way I expect Miller to get a heavy workload.

Round 4

My Pick: after picking Tom Brady in the third Round, I knew my next pick was going to be a Running Back.  The two I was considering were Bilal Powell and Kareem Hunt.  I chose Bilal Powell because I see him as the New York Jets only offensive weapon.  He could potentially be their top Running Back, and top Receiving target.

Biggest surprise: with the 44th pick of the Round, Aegon Targaryen selected Matt Ryan.  Sure he is coming off an MVP Season.  That Season was unlike any other Season he has ever had, and The Falcons begin this Season with a new Offensive Coordinator.  If his numbers regress to his career averages.  Matt Ryan is projected as more of a mid to late Round selection.  At this point in the Draft he had better have another great Season.

Pick of the Round: with the 38th pick overall, Breton selected Demaryius Thomas.  There are concerns about the Quarterback situation in Denver.  If it wasn’t for that, Demaryius Thomas would probably get drafted in the second Round.  He’s just that good.  His second Season with Trevor Siemian at the helm can only help him increase his numbers from last year.  

Round 5

My Pick: this was the first pick I made that really had me thinking.  Kareem Hunt was still available.  Tyreek Hill was a tempting target as well.  Instead I went with what I hope will be a repeat of last year’s production with Larry Fitzgerald.  Fitz is still the number 1 target in Arizona.  Time is running out on the core group of Players to make a final playoff push.  The only reason Fitzgerald didn’t retire is because he believes that they can get there.  That’s the kind of motivation I want on my team.

Biggest surprise: three Tight Ends went in this Round.  It’s unusual to see 6 Tight Ends off the board by the end of Round 5.  I didn’t notice it happen, and paid the price later for missing it.

Pick of the Round:  with the 58th overall pick, Texas Proud selected Kareem Hunt.  I could have picked him twice by then but went with proven performers.  Still Kareem Hunt is in a great position to succeed as a result of Spencer Ware’s injury.  As long as he performs decently in the first few games of the Season.  Kareem Hunt will be the featured Running Back in Kansas City.  He actually has a better chance of being the lead Running Back for his team than other Rookies being drafted ahead of him like Dalvin Cook, and Joe Mixon.

Round 6

My Pick: I ended up picking Rob Kelley after the last TE I was targeting went off the Board the pick before mine.  Delanie Walker, Tyler Eifert, and Martellus Bennett went in this Round.  This is when I realized that there had been a run on Tight Ends.  Realizing that only low end Players were left I decided to continue to bolster my Running Back corps.

Biggest surprise: Obviously it was the continued run on Tight Ends.

Pick of the Round: with the 69th pick, Dez Pacitos selected Martellus Bennett.  The last of the quality Tight Ends with very little risk.  Even though this is actually a bit of a reach.  It was a very smart reach to make given the situation.

Round 7

My Pick: Stefon Diggs was just sitting at the Top of the available Players list for far too long.  I kept waiting to see who would take him.  When he was still there in the 7th Round I just had to take him.  I see him finishing the Season in the Top 30 at Wide Receiver.

Biggest surprise: with the 82nd pick, Texas Proud selected the Denver Broncos DST.  Somebody has to pick the first DST.  In the 7th Round is quite early though.  Even if it’s the best Defence in the league, on my favourite Team.  No I’m not bitter about it.  

Pick of the Round: with the 80th pick, Watch it Burn selected Cam Newton.  Only one Season removed from an MVP Season, and additional Offensive Weapons added through the Draft.  Cam Newton has a very high ceiling.  At this point in the Draft his potential is worth the gamble.

Round 8

My Pick: I continue to select overlooked number 1 Players at their position.  Pierre Garcon was a PPR machine in Washington. A team that was blessed with a wealth of targets.  In San Francisco his share of the targets will definitely increase.  Even on a Team that’s rebuilding, that’s a great situation.

Biggest surprise: that Broncos pick in the previous Round kicked off a panic run on DSTs.  The Chiefs, Seahawks, and Vikings were all selected during this Round.

Pick of the Round: with the 93rd pick Dez Pacitos selected Doug Martin.  Sure he’s beginning the Season under suspension.  When his suspension is over though, Doug Martin is unquestionably the number 1 Running Back in Tampa Bay.  A workhorse Running Back in the 8th Round?  Yes please!  He went one pick before I could draft him.

Round 9

My Pick: another Player at the top of his team’s depth chart at his position.  I missed out on Doug Martin.  I wasn’t going to miss out on Paul Perkins.

Biggest surprise: with the 101rst pick Aegon Targaryen selected Kenny Britt.  Not a lot of Fantasy Players have faith in Kenny Britt.  I actually believe that Britt and Coleman make for a decent one two punch in Cleveland.  This is definitely a reach for a Player that doesn’t get drafted in a lot of Fantasy drafts.

Pick of the Round: my selection of Paul Perkins with the 99th pick was an absolute steal. I’ve seen him go in the 7th Round in previous drafts.

it

Round 10

My Pick: well I couldn’t wait any longer, and finally drafted my Tight End.  Hunter Henry has the most upside of the remaining TEs.  Sure Antonio Gates is still playing, but Henry is bound to see plenty of targets in the Chargers pass happy Offence.

Biggest surprise: the first pick of this Round was used by Geezer Domination to select Cooper Kupp.  There has been a lot of talk about Kupp’s potential breakout.  That was before the Rams traded for Sammy Watkins though.

Pick of the Round: with the 114th pick Raider in the North selected DeVante Parker.  I honestly believe that the recent addition of Jay Cutler makes Parker better.  Cutler loves to throw the deep ball and Parker is a burner.

Round 11

My Pick: I always carry two Quarterbacks on my roster in case of injuries.  Getting Andy Dalton this late in the Draft makes me feel like I made a mistake drafting Brady early.  I wouldn’t be surprised if Dalton finishes the Season in the Top 6 at his position.

Biggest surprise: Dez Pacitos drafted Thomas Rawls with the 124th pick.  I’m surprised Rawls lasted this long.  I’m not sure if Lacy is the man in Seattle yet.

Pick of the Round: Thomas Rawls

Round 12

My Pick: Marvin Jones.  It’s gamble time.  I expect the Lions to be in a lot of high scoring affairs.  Jones will get his share.

Biggest surprise: Watch it Burn selected C.J. Prosise.  An injury prone potentially third down Back, on a Team with a really good Scrambler at Quarterback who prefers to throw down field.

Pick of the Round: nobody really stands out in this Round.

Round 13

My Pick: Kevin White.  He is now the default number 1 Wide Receiver in Chicago.  In Round 13 that’s enough for me.

Biggest surprise: nothing really stands out.

Pick of the Round: with the 154th pick, Texas Proud selected Zay Jones.  With Sammy Watkins gone.  Buffalo is going to need the remaining Wide Receivers to step up.

Round 14

My Pick: Jacksonville Jaguars DST. Some great Players on this Squad.

Biggest surprise: nothing really.

Pick of the Round: with the 164th pick, Aegon Targaryen selected Chris Hogan.  Hogan has had success filling in for injured Players before.  With Edelman out for the Season.  Hogan will get opportunities.

Round 15

My Pick: Brandon McManus.  Got to love the thin air in Denver.

Biggest surprise: quite a few Tight Ends were drafted in the final Round.

Pick of the Round: the final pick of the draft went to Geezer Domination, and he selected the L.A. Rams DST.  Not bad, not bad at all.

Let me know what surprised you in this Draft.  Which Team won the Draft?

Continue reading “Sports Fanatics play Fantasy SF-19 True Fanatics Draft analysis”
Categories
FANTASY Uncategorized

Sports Fanatics play Fantasy SF-18 PlayLine

A new way to play.

Fantasy Fanatics like myself are always looking for a new way to play.  I was an early adopter of PPR.  I remember people telling me that it diminishes the significance of True Running Backs.  Well now it’s considered to be the standard.  FanDuel and DraftPros changed the way we bet on games.  Even ProLine got in on the act.  Well the next, and in my opinion the easiest form of Sports betting has come.  PlayLine has simplified Sports betting to something as simple as how many carries, yards, and touchdowns you think LeSean McCoy will get in his next game.  If you are the closest to his actual total amongst all the Competitors then you win.  It’s that simple!  Larger prize pools will probably include a larger number of NFL Players you will be required to predict.  Anyone with even the slightest understanding of the game could feasibly win.  You don’t need to understand point spreads, over/under, or positional matchups.  Salary cap?  Who really wants to crunch those numbers?  Well I do!  I’m the type of guy that factors in the weather report when picking my lineup, but that’s me.  PlayLine doesn’t pretend to be the most advanced Sports betting system.  There’s already enough of those available fighting for market share.  What PlayLine offers is the ability to make a few simple predictions in less than a minute to make the game you are about to watch just a little more interesting.

Bonus Time!

The PlayLine website and Application launched yesterday.  For a limited time they are offering a huge selection of Freeroll events to introduce their product.  Copy and Paste this link to sign up now and qualify for their million dollar bonus event.

www.playline.com/r/CobeLife

All you have to do is predict the total rushing yards, and number of carries for David Johnson, LeSean McCoy, and Le’Veon Bell.  If you get it bang on, consider yourself a million dollars richer.  Oh and by the way you can enter up to 50 times while spaces are available.  If you are wondering if I got my 50 entries in?  Damn right I did.  Why wouldn’t I?  Why wouldn’t you for that matter?  The number of entries are limited to a total of 5000.  Once the word gets out, I expect them to fill up fast.  So do yourself a favour and use the link I provided to get started.

Will it last?

Every new thing is always met with a tonne of excitement.  A new super bar opens downtown?  I’m there.  Skydome opening day?  Yeah I was there.  The first TFC Game?  You know I had tickets.  Do I still frequent that fantastic bar?  Maybe I would, but it closed years ago.  The Skydome is now called the Roger’s Centre, and it doesn’t really excite me to go there.  I can’t remember the last time I went to a TFC game.  Will I still be placing bets on PlayLine a year from now?  Well that’s going to depend on what unique betting opportunities they offer?  Predicting the number of receptions, receiving yards, and touchdowns Rob Gronkowski might finish a game with can get old really quick.  Especially if I lose to someone who has no clue, and beats me because Gronkowski got hurt in the first quarter.  When you study the Game of Football as much as I do.  Playing a game of educated guesses is less appealing.  Things become a little more enticing when you find out that Michael Bisping is a part owner, and some events could land you ringside with The Count at a UFC event.  It’s promotions like this one that will keep me coming back.  Will PlayLine be my go to betting website?  Probably not, but that doesn’t mean that it shouldn’t be yours.  One thing is for sure.  It will definitely make Game night at the bar with your friends even better.  Find a 5 person event on that nights Game and all of you grab a spot, and make your predictions.  Whichever one of you is closest wins the money.  Just be sure to pay your portion of the Bill before the game ends if you are winning.  If your friends are anything like mine.  You’ll probably get stuck with the check if you win.  In the meantime you might as well get your football fix on PS4.

Categories
FANTASY Uncategorized

Sports Fanatics play Fantasy SF-17 Fluid Draft Strategy

The impossible question

Every year I get asked the same question?  In which Round of the Draft should I target so and so?  This is a completely impossible question to answer fairly.  I could tell you what a Player’s Average Draft Position is.  That would tell you which Round they usually get drafted in.  I could tell you a Player’s Fantasy ceiling.  Then compare it to last year’s numbers to see where that would have placed them overall.  You could decide how long you are willing to wait before drafting them based on that.

The truth is that when to draft a particular Player is determined by the flow of your Draft.  I recently had a friend ask me who they should draft 4th overall.  What neither of us could have predicted is that Le’Veon Bell was still on the board when it was his turn to pick.  Other people told him to grab Antonio Brown or Julio Jones.  I told him to just grab the best Player available.  There really wasn’t any other answer I could honestly give him.  My most successful drafts have been when I was able to predict when specific Players were about to be drafted, and when runs on each position would occur.   A lot of preparation goes into this.  The first thing you need to know is the top three tiers of each position.  In a 12 Team league the three Tiers are easy to identify.  Tier 1 are Players that will likely go in the first four Rounds.  Tier 2 are Players that will likely get picked between Rounds 5 and 9. Tier 3 includes every Player who is likely to get drafted from Round 10 till the end of your Draft.  This will help you decide what to do when a run on a specific position happens.  For example, lets say that you have determined that Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, and Drew Brees are the guaranteed first Tier Quarterbacks.  You’ve decided to pass on taking a first Tier Quarterback, and target a second Tier Quarterback instead.  Among the second Tier Quarterbacks you are interested in drafting are Matt Ryan, Marcus Mariota, Kirk Cousins, Jameis Winston, Russell Wilson, and Cam Newton.  As your Draft unfolds,  Aaron Rodgers, and Tom Brady get picked in the First Round.  Somebody else believes that Matt Ryan will repeat his MVP Season, and picks him in the Second Round.  Three Quarterbacks picked in the first two rounds can cause a panic.  So in Round three, four more Managers pick Quarterbacks.  Drew Brees, Cam Newton, Russell Wilson, and Ben Roethlisberger all get drafted.  This only leaves three of your targeted Quarterbacks still available.  So you should draft one immediately right?

Hell no!

Even in a twelve team league it doesn’t make much sense to pull the trigger now.  Seven Managers already have their starting Quarterback.  So you won’t have to worry about them drafting another Quarterback for quite a while.  There’s only four other Managers that could potentially draft one of your targeted Quarterbacks before you.  What you should be doing is figuring out two more Quarterbacks you would be Ok with drafting just in case.  The real advantage you will be getting by waiting is determined by the Players you pick.  While the opposing Managers are in a panic.  You are able to draft Players that are worth more than the Round position you are drafting them in.  So draft the best Player available!  

By the time the draft is done, and every Manager is sizing up their competition.  Get ready to hear things like, “wow your team is stacked”!  Somebody might comment that “you’ve got a great group of Wide Receivers”!  Trust me, people will think you got extremely lucky, or drafted behind an idiot.  When they look through the Draft picks by Round they will realize that they passed on some of your key Players because you didn’t panic when they did.  In a situation like the one I described.   Other opportunities become available to you by exercising patience.  If at least half the Managers in your league reach for a Quarterback.  You could reach for a Player that would provide you with a positional advantage at some point as well.  While your opponents are grabbing second tier Quarterbacks in Round three.  You are free to abandon your plans to grab a Tier three Tight End, and instead take Gronkowski or Kelce in the fourth Round.  Provided you picked the best Player available in the third Round.  You should still match up well against the rest of your league.

If you are interested in joining the True Fanatics League on nfl.com and joining in our weekly Fantasy league discussion.  Apply to be a Manager through our Contact us page.  Tell me why you would be a great addition to the league.  It’s free to join.  You just need to sign up for a VIP Subscription to Cobe Life.

Categories
FANTASY Uncategorized

Sports Fanatics play Fantasy SF-16 Wide Receivers

Top 8 Wide Receivers

Things haven’t changed much over the last few years at Wide Receiver.  The usual suspects are still at the top.  Although a couple of Players that have taken the next step, or found themselves in Fantasy favourable positions have cracked my Top 8 for the first time.

Antonio Brown

Is Antonio Brown the best Wide Receiver in the NFL?  The simple answer is yes.  Not as physically gifted as the majority of other Wide Receivers on this list.  Antonio Brown makes up for his lack of size with impeccable route running, and impressive quickness.  His ability to create separation from defenders is second to none.  He also happens to be on one of the most explosive offences in the league.  It doesn’t hurt to have Ben Roethlisberger throwing him the ball.  Especially when the two of them are so in tune with one another, that you’d swear that they have a psychic connection.

Now this is where things can sometimes cause a problem.  Roethlisberger has been pretty banged up over the years.  When he isn’t playing at 100%, or at all.  Antonio Brown’s numbers will take a hit.  Because he isn’t a tall Wide Receiver, the Quarterback can’t just throw jump balls at him.  Quite a few passes require perfect timing in to space.  Roethlisberger has perfected that timing.  His Backup hasn’t.  All in all though Antonio Brown won’t disappoint.  No matter who ends up under center.

Odell Beckham Jr.

Young, brash, cocky, and talented.  He’s been criticized for being a bit of a hot head, but that hasn’t affected his overall numbers.  OBJ could become the best Receiver in Fantasy Football if he continues to refine his skills.  Highlight catches have been his specialty, but I believe a 1500 yard Season with 12 touchdowns is in the near future.

There has been some concern about his Touchdown numbers regressing.  The popular opinion is that the addition of Brandon Marshall will limit the number of looks OBJ will get in the Red zone.  Well in 2015 Eric Decker still managed to haul in 12 touchdowns with Brandon Marshall playing opposite him.  Eric Decker!  Brandon Marshall hauled in 14 touchdowns of his own that Season.  I’m sure all of you would consider OBJ to be a far more talented Receiver than Eric Decker.  What that Season proved is that it’s going to impossible to shift the Defence to either side of the field when OBJ and Brandon Marshall are on opposite sides.  One on one coverage will create opportunities OBJ hasn’t had before.

Julio Jones

Considered by most to be the most talented, and physically gifted Wide Receiver in the league.  I agree by the way.  Julio Jones is borderline unstoppable.  In my opinion he is the Randy Moss of this generation.  If it wasn’t for the Atlanta Falcons having so many Weapons on Offence.  Julio Jones could potentially break 2000 yards receiving in a single Season.

What boggles me, and many other Fantasy Managers is why Matt Ryan seems to forget he’s on the field in the Red zone.  Honestly Julio Jones should be catching double digit touchdowns every Season.  It’s only happened once.  I don’t know if Atlanta thinks they are being clever.  Maybe using Jones to draw coverages away from the intended Receiver.  Whatever the reason somebody needs to remind them that Julio Jones would probably score if you told the men covering him that he’s the intended receiver.  After his ridiculous catch in last year’s Superbowl I think the Falcons might look his way in the end zone more often.

Mike Evans

Every year Evans gets a little better.  He’s definitely Jameis Winston’s favourite target.  He’s physically imposing, and incredibly athletic.  Year after year he’s battled against double teams and won.  Well things are about to change.  The addition of DeSean Jackson will help stretch the field, and prevent safeties from doubling Evans.  This could be the year that Mike Evans finishes as the number one Wide Receiver in Fantasy.  Tampa Bay is in a perfect situation to establish themselves as the team to beat in NFC South.  Looking to build off a 9 Win 2016.  The Bucs will put the ball in Winston’s hands to get them to the playoffs.  I expect his trust in Evans will be showcased early and often.

Jordy Nelson

Life is good when you are Aaron Rodgers favourite target.  But there are so many targets in Green Bay?  I hear that said all the time.  Watch a Green Bay Packers game.  Pay special attention to third down plays, and Red zone plays.  Sometimes it seems like Jordy Nelson is the only Receiver on the field.  But he’s getting old, and suffered that torn ACL?  Did anyone notice him slowing down last year?  I sure as hell didn’t.  The 14 touchdowns he hauled in would prove otherwise as well.  Do yourself a favour, and draft Nelson with confidence.

A. J. Green

Take one look at A.J. Green, and it makes complete sense that he is such a successful Wide Receiver.  At six foot four inches tall, and two hundred ten pounds on a long lean frame he’s created to catch balls.  A.J. Green poses a serious problem for Defensive Backs.  If not for missing six games last season due to a hamstring tear.  A.J. Green would have undoubtedly kept his 1000+ yards per season streak alive.  Last season was A.J. Green’s first sub 1000 yards season.  His rapport with Quarterback Andy Dalton has been perfect from the very beginning.  They are truly one of the best Quarterback – Wide Receiver tandems in football.

This off season the Cincinnati Bengals added new offensive weapons John Ross, and Joe Mixon in the draft.  I don’t see A.J. Green losing many targets to either one of them.  Actually the addition of John Ross should stretch the field.  Safety’s will be forced to stay deep to prevent the big play potential of Ross.  Leaving Green with one on one coverage against Cornerbacks on the outside.  A battle that he’s proven time, and again that he can win.

Michael Thomas

Talk about a great Rookie Season.  92 Receptions for 1137 yards, and 9 touchdowns.  As a reward the New Orleans Saints let Brandin Cooks go, and made Thomas the number one Receiver.  What remains to be seen is whether Thomas can handle the increased pressure of being  number one.  I believe that he will handle it well.  With Drew Brees throwing him the ball in the Saints high scoring Offence.  The sky is the limit for Michael Thomas.

Doug Baldwin

This could very well be the year that Baldwin is considered among the elite Wide Receivers in the NFL.  What I am actually expecting is a mixture of his 2015 & 2016 seasons.  A stat line of something like 95 catches for 1100 yards, and 11 touchdowns is highly probable.  I believe that he could actually exceed those numbers.  It will depend on the production of recently acquired Running Back Eddy Lacy though.

Without question Doug Baldwin is a WR1.  I would draft him over Fantasy favourites like DeAndre Hopkins, T.Y. Hilton, and Demaryius Thomas.  With a healthy Russell Wilson back in the huddle.  Look for Doug Baldwin to find lots of room on the outside, and down field.  Another year in the Seattle Seahawks system has Jimmy Graham keeping defences honest so Baldwin won’t have to face too many double coverages.

 

Categories
FANTASY Uncategorized

Sports Fanatics play Fantasy SF-15 Running Backs

Top 8 Running Backs

Most Seasons selecting the Top 8 Running Backs is easy.  This year, not so much.  The Running Back position has dramatically changed over the last decade.  For the most part the requirements they need to become a fantasy stud have remained the same.  A workhorse Back who gets 250+ touches. The ability to run & catch. A favourable offensive scheme.  Last but not least, durability.  Those requirements used to be commonplace.  That’s not the case any more.  Although there has been a resurgence of featured Backs in the NFL.  I’ll divide my Top eight Running Backs into two groups. The first group consists of my Top 4.

David Johnson

David Johnson is the real deal.  Strictly based on talent alone.  It’s hard to argue against him being the best.  Remove David Johnson from the equation, and I can’t even imagine what the Arizona Cardinals offence would look like.  He definitely fits the fantasy stud requirements.  He went over 2000 yards of total offence last year.  That includes 80 receptions.  That’s more than most Receivers!  In David Johnson you essentially get a Running Back, and a Wide Receiver with a single pick.  There’s only one other Running Back in the NFL that can offer you the same.

Le’Veon Bell

In a suspension shortened Season.  Le’Veon Bell had 261 carries, with another 75 receptions.  Had he played a full Season he would probably have eclipsed David Johnson’s combined total.  Where David Johnson is Arizona’s first, second, and third option on offence.  Le’Veon Bell is sharing the field with Antonio Brown, Martavis Bryant, and Eli Rogers on one of the leagues most potent offences.  Touchdowns can go to any one of those Players.  So predicting Bell’s Fantasy production from week to week is a gamble.

Ezekiel Elliot

Ezekiel Elliot had a ridiculous rookie Season.  322 carries for 1631 yards!  He only caught 32 receptions for another 363 yards, but who cares.  Oh yeah he reached pay dirt 16 times.  Did I say it was ridiculous?  Yeah I did.  So he isn’t built in the traditional fantasy stud Running Back mold.  So what!  His numbers resemble that of another Running Back that still managed to lead Fantasy teams to victory, Adrian Peterson.  When you can just grind out 1600+ yards on the ground, and get the ball across the goal line.  Trust me, that’s all you need.  The only thing that worries me is how long he can handle such a heavy workload?  We saw what it did to Adrian Peterson, and he qualifies as a superhuman in my books.  I’m willing to bet that Zeke can keep grinding out those yards for Dallas for at least a couple more Seasons.

LeSean McCoy

A few years back, if you were to ask me who my favourite Player in Fantasy Football is?   I would have answered LeSean McCoy.   I’ve been running a Keeper league for years.  For at least four of those years LeSean McCoy was one of my Keepers.  It took breakout Seasons from Antonio Brown, and Julio Jones plus the move to Buffalo to finally let him go.  I still wonder if I made the right decision.  McCoy is just special.  If he wasn’t a Buffalo Bill he’d challenge for top honors in the Running Back department.  His health is a bit of an issue also.  At 29 he has used up a lot of tread on those tires.  His Offensive Coordinators  recognized his talent, and were eager to use it.  Although his touches have decreased somewhat over the years.  It’s been because of injuries, not careful utilization of this star Running Back.

Now on to the other four Running Backs of my Top 8.  Any one of these Running Backs could finish in the Top 3 by Seasons end.  They all have the skill, and situation to succeed.

Devonta Freeman

It would probably come as a surprise to most.  Devonta Freeman is the NFL’s highest paid Running Back.  No way, you’ve got to be kidding right!  Well I’m not, and you know what?  He deserves it!  At only 25 years old his last two Seasons had 1500+ total yards, over 1000 of those rushing, and at least 13 touchdowns.  Keep in mind that those numbers are with Tevin Coleman on the roster getting touches, and touchdowns.  In other words Freeman doesn’t need to completely carry the load like the previous Running Backs on this list.  He’s on one of the most dynamic offences in the league, and fits the scheme perfectly.  Atlanta will be looking to get back to the Superbowl, and recognizing that Freeman is a key piece was the first step.  I wouldn’t worry about a decrease in performance because he got paid.  I actually expect Atlanta to use him more to get their moneys worth.

Melvin Gordon

Melvin Gordon finally showed the ability his high draft price demanded of him last year.  In fairness it was his first Season as the undisputed lead Back for the Chargers.  That might have been all he needed to free up his conscience, and just focus on the job at hand.  If the Chargers are going to get back to having some success in the AFC West.  They are going to need to be able to establish a good Running Game.  Philip Rivers has to face a murderers row of Pass Rushers in that Division.  In order to keep those Defences honest they will have to run the ball, a lot.  Sounds like a perfect situation for Gordon right.  Well it could be.  The Chargers just need to learn how to get out to a lead.  Otherwise Gordon’s opportunities could be limited.

DeMarco Murray

Another workhorse Back who gets the majority of the touches on the Offence.  The risk here is his health.  DeMarco Murray has a history of injuries.  He’s been relatively healthy the last few Seasons, but with such a heavy workload.  It feels like his next carry could be his last.  If he can avoid the injury bug, then Murray is in the perfect situation in Tennessee.  He is the key to the offence.  Whether it’s running through defenders, or catching balls out of the backfield.  Murray has transformed the Titans from an up and coming franchise to a real contender in their division.

Leonard Fournette

I hate doing this.  I hate including Rookies in my Top 8 lists.  Of course I did it last year, and that worked out.  So maybe this will become a habit.  First of all Fournette is a beast.  He had 300 carries in only 12 games in 2015.  He only played in 7 games in 2016 due to injury.  That’s probably a blessing in disguise for the Jacksonville Jaguars, because he will begin this Season fresh.  There has been a lot of speculation about how high his ceiling is on the struggling Jaguars.  Well those same Jaguars were struggling when Maurice Jones Drew was there, and his numbers were relevant.  If you are hoping for Ezekiel Elliot type numbers.  Just prepare to be disappointed.  I don’t expect Fournette to have to carry the Offence on his back.  I see him as more of a short yardage, and goal line Back.  He’ll also get plenty of first down opportunities to establish the run, and wear down Defences.  The addition of Fournette just makes the Jaguars’ Offence better.  They might finish the Season as a losing franchise, but it won’t be for a lack of scoring.  You can be sure that Fournette will get his fair share.

 

Categories
FANTASY Uncategorized

Sports Fanatics play Fantasy SF-15 Injuries already!

Injuries with a Fantasy impact before the first game of Preseason.

If there’s one thing I truly hate.  It’s injuries to key Players before they’ve even played a snap.  It’s the beginning of August, and the first Preseason game is yet to be played.  I have already spent some time adjusting my draft board more than once.  Thankfully my Keeper league team has yet to be affected.  Can’t say the same for a couple of my Competitors though. 😁 These are the injuries that could seriously effect your Fantasy team.

Andrew Luck

There has been a lot of speculation about Andrew Luck as he prepares to return from off season shoulder surgery.   The one thing that is for sure is that the original time line was incorrectly optimistic.  As of right now, Andrew Luck’s return is totally unknown.  It could be before the final game of the Preseason, or it could be against Jacksonville in Week 7.  Not knowing when he will return is worse than knowing he won’t be available until Week 7.  As a Fantasy Manager you can make the necessary adjustments to your draft grades if you know.  What makes matters worse is that Luck is the key to the Colts offence.  If he misses any significant time then you will need to adjust your values for a number of Players.  Is T.Y. Hilton a Top 10 Wide Receiver if Andrew Luck isn’t throwing him the ball?  He isn’t to me.  Donte Moncrief, whom I consider a potential breakout Player.  He becomes a Player I wouldn’t even consider drafting unless he fell into the final Rounds of a draft.  Do you think Scott Tolzien can keep Defences honest enough to avoid having the box stacked against the run?  I sure as hell don’t.  Frank Gore is a great workhorse Back.  Asking him to produce against a stacked box is too much though.  Every one of these Players goes from being a Fantasy staple to a complete gamble.

Kenneth Dixon

So in this case we know what the final diagnosis is.  Kenneth Dixon is done for the Season.  Hopefully you aren’t in one of those ridiculous leagues that drafts in July, and picked Dixon.  If you are, well sorry about your luck.  If you are like the majority of us, and have yet to draft.  Then Dixon going down has opened up some interesting possibilities on the Fantasy front.  The Ravens weren’t going to have a bell cow Running Back.  With Dixon out for the Season two Running Backs are likely to see a greater number of touches.  Who benefits most will depend on the play calling.  I believe that Terrance West will gain the majority of touches in Dixon’s absence.  This year will be his opportunity to prove to the Ravens, and the rest of the league that he can be a lead Back.  Danny Woodhead’s value doesn’t change much.  He will still serve as a change of pace, or third down pass catching Running Back.  He will gain a few additional snaps, but not enough to really affect his draft position.  As always Woodhead comes with a lot of injury risk, and that will always push him deeper into drafts.

Will Fuller

A couple Seasons ago DeAndre Hopkins was a Top 5 Wide Receiver.  Last Season he was supposed to back it up with another great Season.  That never happened.  There was a couple of reasons for his decline.  The first was incredibly terrible Quarterback play.  The second reason was the immediate impact of the Houston Texans first Round pick out of Notre Dame Will Fuller.  It’s not like Fuller is challenging Hopkins for the number 1 Wide Receiver position.  He isn’t nearly as talented as DeAndre Hopkins.  What he is though is incredibly fast.  His ability to burn opposing Defences deep can come in handy in close games.  With one of the Top Defences in the league it only took one big play to win games.  Well Will Fuller busted his Collar Bone today.  Which means to Fantasy Managers that he won’t see the field until some time in October at the earliest.  What does this mean for the rest of the Fantasy roster in Houston?  One thing is for sure, DeAndre Hopkins goes back to being the only real threat at Wide Receiver.  C.J. Fiedorowicz will be counted on to handle an increased work load.  The real benefactor here though is Lamar Miller.  Houston’s best chance of winning close games is to control the clock, and run the ball.

These are just a few of the early injuries.  Pay close attention during Preseason, and adjust your draft boards accordingly.  Trust me the injury bug is far from done.

Categories
FANTASY Uncategorized

Sports Fanatics play Fantasy SF-14

Three Wide Receivers that could make or break your Draft.

What makes one Fantasy team more successful than another?  I can tell you that it isn’t decided by the Players you picked in the first three Rounds.   Excluding injury, Players picked in the first three Rounds will definitely perform.  The real difference between a good, or bad team is determined by your mid Round picks.  In a 12 Team league the Players picked between the fifth and tenth Rounds will ultimately determine how strong your Team will be.   In this Post I will discuss three Wide Receivers that should be drafted in the middle Rounds that could be the difference for your Team.

Donte Moncrief

In my opinion all it would take for Moncrief to have a breakout Season is for things to go right in Indianapolis for once.  Moncrief has yet to start a full Season with Luck at the helm.  When they have shared the field together it’s been Fantasy gold.  All appears to be right in Indianapolis at this time.  Andrew Luck appears to be in good shape,. Donte Moncrief also appears to be in great shape as well.  Considering the Indianapolis Colts pass heavy attack.  The fact that T. Y. Hilton will draw the Defence towards his side of the field. Donte Moncrief might finally find himself in that sweet spot he was drafted for.  It wouldn’t surprise me in the slightest if he finishes the Season with double digit touchdowns.  In fact I expect it.  This is the year for the Luck-Moncrief-Colts perfect storm to happen.

Martavis Bryant

Every time I see Martavis Bryant’s name I get a little upset.  The reason I get upset is because I’ve had Antonio Brown as one of my Keepers in my most competitive league.  2014 was the worst.  You wouldn’t even notice he was on the field during most Pittsburgh drives.  Then they would get within striking distance of the end zone.  A seven play drive would  include three passes to Antonio Brown for a total of 39 yards.  That’s 6.9 points in my league.  Martavis Bryant’s stat line during that same drive.  One catch for 18 yards, and a touchdown.  That’s 8.8 points in my league.  I wanted to strangle the guy.  It seemed like he was using a jar of stickum as well.  He just never seemed to drop a ball.  Especially in the end zone.  That’s why with Ben Roethlisberger back at the helm, and entering this Season healthy.  I believe that passing on Martavis Bryant is a mistake.  People will argue that Pittsburgh has too many mouths to feed.  I wouldn’t worry about that.  Bryant doesn’t worry about getting lots of looks in a game.  The only time Roethlisberger looks his way is in the Red zone.  That’s good enough for him, so it’s good enough for me as well.

Jamison Crowder

Jamison Crowder enters the all important third year with the Washington Redskins as their most veteran Receiver.  That’s right, Pierre Garcon, and DeSean Jackson left to sign with new Teams in the off season.  He will be competing for targets with Wide Receivers Josh Doctson, and Terrelle Pryor.  Doctson has only played two games in the NFL due to injury, and Pryor showed big play capability in Cleveland last year.  Kirk Cousins two most familiar targets to start the Season will be Jamison Crowder, and Jordan Reed.  Due to their comfort level, and familiarity with the offence. I would expect Crowder to get the Lion’s share of the short to intermediate route passes the first few games.  If he can build off the success he had last year in those first few games.  I would expect Cousins to treat him as his go-to option for the majority of the Season.  Over 2000 yards, and 7 touchdowns has left the stadium in Washington.  Somebody has to pick up the slack.  Obviously it won’t all go to Terrelle Pryor.  Sounds like the perfect situation for Jamison Crowder to break 1000 yards receiving with double digit touchdowns.

If you think I’m wrong, or living on cloud nine.  Let me know in the comments.  If you are interested in winning your league this year?

Take my Advice

Categories
FANTASY Uncategorized

Sports Fanatics play Fantasy SF-13 QB Draft

Drafting a Quarterback

Choosing when to draft a Quarterback is one of the most important decisions you will make.  The top Running Backs will be off the board within the first two rounds.  After they’re all gone second, and third tier Running Backs are plentiful.  Other than a handful of marquee Wide Receivers.  There are plenty of useful options at Wide Receiver that can be had all the way through your draft.  The Tight End position even simpler.  Outside of taking Gronkowski early.  The difference in quality between the majority of Tight Ends is insignificant.

Things are far different when comparing Quarterbacks.  The difference in fantasy production from tier to tier is far greater.  A top tier Quarterback can earn you an extra five to ten fantasy points over your opponent if they have a third tier Quarterback.  In a twelve team league at least a third of the teams will have a third tier Quarterback.  This is a disadvantage that you shouldn’t take lightly.

When preparing for your draft it’s important to pay attention to which teams are in your division.  Many leagues including mine automatically get you into the playoffs if you win your division.  My leagues are twelve teams with three divisions.  You play each team in your division twice.  Obviously how my team performs against my division rivals is extremely important.  So how do I make sure my team keeps pace?  I pay close attention to who my division rivals are picking during the draft.  This is especially true when deciding when to draft my Quarterback.  Lets say my plan going into the draft is to pick a Quarterback with big play potential like Eli Manning, or Carson Palmer.  Third tier Quarterbacks with an eighth Round value in my opinion.  This allows me to top load my team with Running Backs and Wide Receivers.  What happens if somebody in my division drafts Aaron Rodgers with their first pick?  Suddenly any Quarterback I pick is at a serious disadvantage against this division rival.  Of course I had previously decided not to waste an early Round pick on the best Quarterback in Fantasy.  I knew somebody was going to take him.  Unfortunately he landed in my division.  Still  I’m not too worried because I got A.J. Green with the 10th pick, and he will be better than any Wide Receiver that Manager drafts.  Fast forward to the third Round, and another Manager in my division picks Tom Brady.  It’s at this point that my original plan suddenly appears sorely insufficient.

Considering that I will have to play each Manager in my division twice.  I’m now faced with a twelve game regular season that includes a third of the season against two of the best Quarterbacks in Fantasy.  Selecting either one of my targeted Quarterbacks would leave me at a major positional disadvantage.  At this point I was forced to adjust my draft Strategy, and target a second tier Quarterback.  I quickly checked the board to see who was available.  I placed all of the second tier Quarterbacks in my queue.  Then I continued to follow my draft Strategy until only two was left.  When my next pick came around there was only one left so I snatched him up.

On a draft Application like nfl.com it’s always a good idea to fill your queue with potential picks.  This is especially true if you aren’t emotionally attached to any specific Player.  For me that means Quarterbacks, and Tight Ends tend to clog up my queue.  I won’t reach for a top tier Quarterback, or Gronkowski.  So who I get at either position just needs to be a competitive Fantasy Player.

To help you decide which Quarterbacks to target going into your draft.  I’ll quickly go over three categories of Quarterbacks I’ve identified.

Top tier Quarterbacks

Aaron Rodgers: honestly Aaron Rodgers could be in a category all by himself.  The most dominant Quarterback in Fantasy Football.  His situation in Green Bay is a Fantasy Manager’s wet dream.  He’s so important to the offence, and so successful.  Green Bay seems disinterested in finding a quality Running Back for him to hand off to.  He’s really the only Quarterback that could be drafted in the first Round.  If you want him on your team you had better be ready to pay up.

Drew Brees: a threat to break 5000 yards passing every single Season.  That about says it right there.  You are practically guaranteed at least 30 touchdowns.  It’s also a benefit to whoever drafts him that the New Orleans Saints Defence couldn’t stop the Toronto Argos from scoring.  Brees finds himself playing from behind all too often.  Getting the ball down field fast, and in to the end zone is a necessity.

Tom Brady: as long as he is healthy,  Tom Brady will continue to put up huge numbers.  As an added bonus the Patriots like to run up the score against weak opponents.  With teams like the Bills, and the Jets in their division.  You are practically guaranteed to get some huge Fantasy weeks out of Brady.

Andrew Luck: Andrew Luck can be considered a borderline top tier/second tier Quarterback.  There’s the concern surrounding his recent shoulder surgery.  There’s also the concern surrounding his offensive line.  If he comes back healthy?   There’s no guarantee that he will remain healthy for long.  If the Offensive line can prevent Luck from looking like he just went 10 rounds with Mike Tyson every game?  Then Andrew Luck could become the Top Quarterback in Fantasy Football.  He’s that good.

Second tier Quarterbacks

Marcus Mariota: he has had a lot of success in Fantasy Football already.  Considering that he hasn’t had top level receiving targets.  His Fantasy numbers are really based on his talent alone.  The Titans rewarded him with three new offensive targets in the Draft.  If even one of them pan out.  Expect Mariota to have a great Season.

Kirk Cousins: another great Season, and what does he get?  One more year under the franchise tag.  He could have accepted a contract that would have made him the second highest paid Quarterback.  Instead he chose to gamble on himself.  If he puts together another great Season.  He stands to become the highest paid Player in the league.  He could also end up at the helm of a true contender.  All of this is music to a Fantasy Manager’s ears.  He lost Pierre Garcon, and DeSean Jackson in the off season.  Honestly though with what is at stake for Cousins.  I’m not worried.

Jameis Winston: not only does he keep improving every year.  The Bucs did him a huge favour by signing DeSean Jackson in the off season.  Read my full Jameis Winston analysis on the Starting from Scratch post SF-7.

Derek Carr: a young talented Quarterback, on one of the most star packed teams.  Sounds like a great situation for success right.  What many people overlook is how a great Defence adds value to their Quarterback.  The more three and outs they get.  The more opportunities their Quarterback will have to earn you points.  Derek Carr will have a great Season.

The last category consists of a group of Quarterbacks that could surprise many people in Fantasy Football.  Matt Ryan’s ridiculous Season last year was an example.

Top 5 potential breakout Quarterbacks

Cam Newton: new offensive Weapons, only one Season removed from an MVP.

Eli Manning: addition of Brandon Marshall makes the Giants Wide Receiver tandem brutally difficult to defend.

Tyrod Taylor: always a threat on his feet, a healthy Sammy Watkins greatly increases his ceiling, needs to prove to the Bills that he’s their future.

Ben Roethlisberger: deep threat Martavis Bryant is back, will have Le’Veon Bell for a full Season.

Andy Dalton: the addition of Joe Mixon and John Ross, a healthy Tyler Eifert, needs to rebound from a statistically poor Season.

Hopefully this will help you put a plan in place to draft the best possible Quarterback.  Even if the unexpected happens in your draft.

Categories
FANTASY

Sports Fanatics play Fantasy SF-12 Le’Veon Bell

The Top 100 highlights

My final selection for the Top 100 highlight series from the 10-1 group is

Le’Veon Bell

Could he be the number 1 pick in your Fantasy draft?  A good case could be made for him to be exactly that.  Should he be the number 1 pick in your Fantasy draft though?  Well that’s something we will need to discuss.

Unless you are a emotionally attached to a particular Player.  The consensus top two picks in Fantasy are David Johnson, and Le’Veon Bell.  Most Fantasy analysts pick David Johnson as their number 1 pick.  And why shouldn’t they.  In his first full Season as the Cardinals Bell cow Back.  David Johnson ran for 1239 yards, caught another 879 yards, and reached the end zone 20 times.  Just ridiculous right!  Well actually it isn’t as ridiculous as it seems.  Consider what Le’Veon Bell achieved in a suspension shortened Season.  1268 yards rushing, with another 616 yards receiving, and 9 touchdowns.  Not too shabby is it?  Project his averages over a full 16 games, and compare again.  Le’Veon Bell’s numbers would have been 1691 yards rushing, with another 821 yards receiving, and 12 touchdowns.    Now the comparison doesn’t look so lopsided in Johnson’s favour does it.  What about the 8 additional touchdowns though right.  Obviously that still makes David Johnson the number 1 pick.  Well lets look at this mathematically.  8 more touchdowns is an additional 48 points in standard scoring formats.  Le’Veon Bell would have finished with an additional 392 yards of offence which is another 39.2 points in standard scoring formats.  If your league provides a bonus for breaking 100 yards rushing or receiving like many do, mine included.  Le’Veon Bell would have had at least 5 more 100 yard bonuses than Johnson.  My league awarded a 3 point bonus last Season.  That’s an additional 15 points.  Add it all up and Le’Veon Bell is your number 1 pick statistically.

Well there you have it.  Le’Veon Bell is your number 1 pick.  Lets hope you get one of the first three picks.  If you don’t get numero uno, then lets hope the other two Managers haven’t read my blog.  Ok hold on a second.  If Fantasy Football was just about the statistical advantage, then why bother playing?

It’s all the intangibles that make Fantasy Football so much fun.  It’s the qualitative advantages that eventually decide who wins, or loses.  For instance is DeAndre Hopkins a better Wide Receiver than Julian Edelman?  Damn right he is.  If you think he isn’t then you’re either a big Patriots fan, or the worst talent scout ever.  Ever!  Statistically though Edelman beat out Hopkins last Season.  Of course that’s what happens when Tom Brady is throwing you the ball instead of Brock Osweiler.  Brady is the qualitative advantage.  So when we look at Le’Veon Bell’s situation versus David Johnson’s.  Johnson has one major advantage over Bell.  It’s not the Quarterback because they both have true veterans feeding them the ball.  They are both on very competitive teams, so they should both get plenty of opportunities in the Red zone.  The difference is in their importance to each teams offensive success.  Remove David Johnson from the roster, and the Arizona Cardinals suddenly look like a losing franchise.  In the four games without Le’Veon Bell last Season, the Steelers went 3-1.  The reason for this is the plethora of offensive Weapons the Steelers are blessed with.  They don’t need to rely on Le’Veon Bell.  Without David Johnson the Arizona Cardinals only proven commodity is Larry Fitzgerald.  This is why you can pretty much guarantee that Johnson will put up a decent amount of Fantasy points every game.  You can’t say the same about Le’Veon Bell.  If Antonio Brown, Martavis Bryant, Eli Rogers, or any one else gets hot then Bell will be hardly used.  When the Steelers get out to a huge lead.  Which they tend to do a few times a Season.  They generally rest Bell, and give his back up a few touches.  That’s a very rare occurrence with David Johnson.  The Cardinals are a Defence first kind of team.  They prefer clock management to total blow outs.  Johnson is the man who winds the clock.  He doesn’t leave the game until the final whistle blows.

So Draft Johnson ahead of Bell then.

Honestly, they are both safe bets.  I’d be totally satisfied with either one.  If I had to pick one I’d go with Bell.  I have a feeling that the Steelers are going to be unstoppable on Offence this year.  As long as Big Ben stays healthy, and I believe he will.  The Steelers are going to score early, and often.  I believe Bell will get even more opportunities to score during the second, and third quarters.  I expect his touchdown numbers to improve.  I predict the opposite for Johnson.  Defences will begin to stack the box against him.  Forcing the aging Carson Palmer to beat them through the air.  Palmer’s interceptions have increased over the years.  I’m sure I’m not the only one who has noticed.  Taking David Johnson out of the equation is how you beat the Cardinals.  Johnson will be hard pressed to equal his touchdown numbers from last year.

Categories
FANTASY

Sports Fanatics play Fantasy SF-11 A.J. Green

The Top 100 highlights

My ninth selection from the Top 100 highlight series from the 20-11 group is

A.J. Green

Take one look at A.J. Green, and it makes complete sense that he is such a successful Wide Receiver.  At six foot four inches tall, and two hundred ten pounds on a long lean frame he’s created to catch balls.  A.J. Green poses a serious problem for Defensive Backs.  If not for missing six games last season due to a hamstring tear.  A.J. Green would have undoubtedly kept his 1000+ yards per season streak alive.  Last season was A.J. Green’s first sub 1000 yards season.  His rapport with Quarterback Andy Dalton has been perfect from the very beginning.  They are truly one of the best Quarterback – Wide Receiver tandems in football.

This off season the Cincinnati Bengals added new offensive weapons John Ross, and Joe Mixon in the draft.  I don’t see A.J. Green losing many targets to either one of them.  Actually the addition of John Ross should stretch the field.  Safety’s will be forced to stay deep to prevent the big play potential of Ross.  Leaving Green with one on one coverage against Cornerbacks on the outside.  A battle that he’s proven time, and again that he can win.

All that being said, what should you expect from him this year?

First of all, I don’t consider A.J. Green to be an injury risk.  The type of injuries he’s had in his career aren’t the kind that lead to repeat issues.  So what I expect from him will be based upon a sixteen game season.  My only concern with his potential production isn’t about him at all.  It’s actually a concern that I have about Andy Dalton.  To be fair, it isn’t with Dalton’s ability.  It’s really with the situation that he finds himself in.  Dalton isn’t a top tier Quarterback.  He’s definitely good enough to get the job done though.  At least if he’s provided with a favourable situation.  The problem with his situation this year is the offensive line.  Starting Tackles Whitworth, and Zeitler bolted for greener pastures in the off season.  Replacing them will be a couple of unproven Players with minimal NFL experience.  If they can’t keep Dalton upright, then A.J. Green’s numbers could suffer.  I suspect that there will be some growing pains.  While the Cincinnati Bengals work through it.  It wouldn’t surprise me if the Bengals switch to a run heavy offence.  Leaning on their trio of talented Running Backs Joe Mixon, Jeremy Hill, and Giovanni Bernard.

Sounds like A.J. Green is falling down my Draft board doesn’t it?  Well he isn’t actually.  My top five Wide Receivers in order from first to fifth are: Julio Jones, Antonio Brown, Odell Beckham Jr, Mike Evans, and A.J. Green.  I project him to get something around 1300 yards receiving, and 9 touchdowns.  If your league provides a bonus for going over 100 yards receiving in a game.  Then get ready to cash in on that bonus as well, if A.J. Green is on your roster.

What I’m trying to tell you is that A.J. Green is a truly great Wide Receiver.  When you are truly great.  Your situation doesn’t really effect you as much.  You just find a way to make plays.  Don’t over think this.  Draft A.J. Green with confidence.

A quick reminder for any new visitors to my blog.  Be sure to click on over to my VIP Subscription section in the menu.  For a limited time Subscriptions are free!  Monthly contests will begin at the end of summer.  All VIP members will be automatically entered.  You will be given notice of all upcoming contests, or events by email.  You will also receive a new post update each Friday.  Membership does indeed have it’s privileges my friends.