Everyone is getting excited about the return of Brady and Belichick. Only this time they are on opposite sides. Tom Brady the leader of the Superbowl champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Bill Belichick the leader of the New England Patriots who failed to reach the playoffs.
Lets just look at my previous sentence for a second. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are defending Superbowl champions. In fact they have a chance to repeat with the exact same roster they had last season. That’s right they did the almost impossible feat of resigning everyone from their Superbowl winning team. The Patriots didn’t make the playoffs their first year without Tom Brady. In fact they didn’t even have a winning season. It’s also a problem when the individual on a football team that gets the most attention from the media is the coach. The true leader of a successful NFL team should be on the field playing.
The Buccaneers only loss was last week against the L.A. Rams. A team I picked to go to the Superbowl this season. The Patriots only win so far was against the N.Y. Jets. The Jets are arguably the worst team in the entire league. Does anyone actually believe this is going to be a competitive contest? I definitely don’t!
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have one of the best pass rushes in football. The Patriots have rookie quarterback Mac Jones starting against them. Take the over on 2.5 sacks for the Bucs on Sunday night.
Sure it might be interesting to see how Tom and Bill greet each other before the game. They are both professionals though so don’t expect anything disrespectful. When it actually comes to the game though. This should be an absolute blow out for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. It’s possible the game could be out of reach at halftime.
Something that gets missed by many Fantasy Analysts is Positional Priority when drafting.
Understanding Fantasy Football Positional Priority is key to ensuring the success of your Fantasy team later in the season. It can also be the most important factor that determines whether a Trade is worth it when the time comes.
In traditional PPR that includes 1 QB, 2 RBs, 2 or 3 WRs, 1 TE, 1 Kicker, 1 Defense, and 1 or 2 Flex positions that don’t allow QBs to be flexed.
The Positional Priority is as follows 1 – Running Back 2 – Wide Receiver 3 – Tight End 4 – Quarterback 5 – Defense 6 – Kicker
Running Backs are the most important position because they fill multiple spots on your starting roster, and have the highest floors of any position other than Quarterback. They are also one of the most often injured positions so having depth at Running Back is usually necessary. The top tier Running Backs have the greatest potential to have game breaking performances each week. Most NFL teams only have 1 or 2 Fantasy relevant Running Backs on their roster. That means that there aren’t that many to choose from. So be sure to draft yours early. Whenever you are having a hard time deciding which player to draft. If one of them is a Running Back, that’s the one to go with.
Wide Receivers are the second most important position because they also fill multiple spots on your roster. Unlike Running Backs though they don’t have as high of a floor. They aren’t injured as often because the league has rules in place to protect them. They can also have game breaking performances, but they can also have terrible weeks of little to no points. Most NFL teams have 3 or 4 Fantasy relevant Wide Receivers so there are plenty to go around. That being said it’s a good idea to draft 1 or 2 top target Wide Receivers for piece of mind.
Tight Ends are third but only if you are after one of the better Tight Ends. Most NFL teams only have 1 fantasy relevant Tight End. That’s fine though because you only need to Start 1. The difference between a Top tier Tight End and a lower tier is huge. It’s a greater jump in points than any other position. So if you miss on a top tier Tight End, or aren’t interested in drafting one. Then Quarterback is actually more important to you.
Quarterbacks are next on the list because you only need to start 1, and almost every NFL team has a fantasy relevant QB. The difference between a top tier QB and a second tier QB isn’t huge so you can afford to wait. QBs are susceptible to injury but there is almost always a decent option as a replacement on waivers.
Defense and Kickers end the list because they both take up a roster slot. Determining how successful a Defense or Kicker will be is very situational. That’s why so many Fantasy Managers stream them week to week.
To sum up just draft a Running Back early, and another one asap before you even consider drafting a TE or QB. If a top tier Wide Receiver falls to you go ahead and draft them. If the top Tight Ends have been drafted then don’t draft one until you have drafted at least 3 Running Backs, 3 Wide Receivers, and a Quarterback.
some Fantasy Football Analysts suggest you use ADP as your guide to determining Draft Value. Do yourself a favour and stop taking their advice!
there are another school of Fantasy Football Analysts that believe you should use their Top 200 ranking system. Then select your players based on the highest ranked player available and fill your roster positions. If your goal is to finish in the middle of the pack? Then by all means do that.
if you actually want to win then you need to be getting more VALUE with your draft picks than your opponents are. That’s it. It’s that simple! So how do you achieve that? Which position do you draft when? Are there specific Players you need to target?
the TIER VALUE DRAFT SYSTEM is extremely effective, and even more importantly easy. The real beauty of it is that it’s totally reactive. Essentially your opponents selections are setting you up to win your draft. The only choices you make are based upon positional preference. The system begins before the draft. You need to organize the players by their position (QB, RB, WR, TE) into Tiers. Tier 1 being the most valuable, Tier 2 the second most, Tier 3 the third, and so on. Some Positions will have more Tiers than others. Generally I include the very best Players at their position in Tier 1. Tier 2 includes Players that could score as many Fantasy points as the Tier 1 players but aren’t as certain. Tier 3 players have a high ceiling as well but come with some risk. Tier 4 and below are usually safe backups, Rookies, and total Wild Cards I might draft late. How many players are in each Tier is up to you. This season I have seen Fantasy Football Analysts have as few as 4 Top Tier Running Backs, or as many as 6. It doesn’t matter what they think. It only matters what you believe. Depending on where you pick in the first Round. That Top Tier of RBs could be important. In the TIER VALUE DRAFT SYSTEM you don’t want to be the first or even second person to draft a Tier 2 player when there are Tier 1 players available at another position. Lets say you have decided that there are 5 Tier 1 RBs in the draft. If you draft 6 then your first pick shouldn’t be an RB. Your choice should be the Player you believe will provide you with the greatest advantage at another position. Tight End is an attractive choice at this point. The Tier 1 Tight Ends scored an average of 8 points per game more than Tier 2 Tight Ends in 2020. That’s a greater advantage than QBs or WRs. Plus there are only 3 or 4 Tier 1 Tight Ends. So you would have a significant advantage over most of your league. In Round 2 you could probably still draft a Tier 2 RB. The same perceived VALUE at a lower price.
your goal is to fill your positions by paying less than your opponents, and to maximize your average points per game. In traditional PPR formats with 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, and 1 FLEX. You should rank the importance of the positions in this order. RB – TE (Tier 1 only) – WR – QB – TE ( Tier 2+)
so whenever possible you should aim to draft one of the last players available from each tier to fill out your roster. For example if there are only a few Tier 2 Running Backs left in your draft when your selection arrives. Grab one then. That way you have paid less for your Tier 2 RB than everyone who picked a Tier 2 RB ahead of you. The only time you pay more is when a higher Tier position you require to fill your roster is still available.
EXAMPLE OF TIER VALUE DRAFT SYSTEM
these are my current Quarterback Tiers for 2021.
Tier 1 Patrick Mahomes 2020 #5 Kyler Murray 2020 #2 Josh Allen 2020 #1 Dak Prescott 2020 Injury Lamar Jackson 2020 #9 *Aaron Rodgers 2020 #3
Obviously if you are able to draft one of the Tier 1 QBs for a decent value you should. Just remember that perception isn’t necessarily reality. Most people would assume that Patrick Mahomes was the Top QB last season but actually finished 5th overall in Fantasy points. Utilizing my Tier Value Draft System last Season. I drafted Kyler Murray in the 4th Round and finished with a higher scoring Fantasy Football QB than Patrick Mahomes who went in the 2nd Round of my draft. Any of the QBs in Tier 1 could finish as the best Quarterback in Fantasy Football this Season. Don’t pick favourites, pick VALUE!
It still isn’t a guarantee that Aaron Rodgers will play this Season. If you aren’t sure by the time of your Draft then avoid him.
Tier 2 (-4 points per game average) Tom Brady 2020 #7 Russell Wilson 2020 #6 Ryan Tannehill 2020 #8 Justin Herbert 2020 #8 Joe Burrow 2020 Injury *Deshaun Watson 2020 #4
If I miss out on a Tier 1 QB I make it a priority to draft a Tier 2. You should expect them to perform at a slightly lower rate than the Tier 1 Quarterbacks. Any of these QBs could potentially outperform a Tier 1 QB though, so these are great Value targets in a Draft. In most Fantasy Football drafts I usually land a Tier 2 QB as my starter. The reason for this is because the obvious Top QBs tend to go too early for my liking. Usually you are still able to draft a Tier 2 Quarterback at least 3 Rounds after the last Tier 1 Quarterback gets drafted. That means you have at least 4 Rounds of picks to make up an average of 4 points per game on the Teams that drafted a Tier 1. That could have happened in the second Round if your opponent drafted a QB in the first, and you landed a Top 10 Fantasy Running Back.
DeShaun Watson could end up sitting out in Houston, or he could get traded to a contender. Of course he has criminal charges to deal with as well. Best case scenario he ends up in Denver and is a total steal as a Tier 2 QB. Worst case scenario he doesn’t play at all.
Tier 3 (QBs with upside) Matt Ryan Matthew Stafford Daniel Jones Ryan Fitzpatrick Jameis Winston
Tier 3 has a number of Quarterbacks that could breakout in 2021. If you are a gambler, and lets be honest. If you love Fantasy Football you probably are. Then Tier 3 QBs are very tempting draft targets. They can be drafted relatively late in drafts after you have stocked up on quality RBs, WRs, and a Top Tier TE. I used to have a system I called the Dallas Clark Draft. Dallas Clark was the Travis Kelce equivalent back in the day. If I didn’t have a Top 5 pick in the draft. My first Round target was always Dallas Clark. Then I would draft best player available RB or WR until all of the Tier 1 and Tier 2 QBs were gone. Then I would target whichever Tier 3 QB was in the most favourable position. My team had an advantage at TE against my league, plus it was practically injury proof at RB and WR. In this group the NFC East QBs are the most interesting to me. It’s a weak division, and both QBs have great new targets to throw to.
Tier 4 (wildcards and safe floors) Trevor Lawrence Justin Fields Zach Wilson Derek Carr Ben Roethlisberger Baker Mayfield Tua Tagovailoa
If you have drafted a Tier 4 QB as your starter you might be in trouble. That doesn’t mean you should avoid them entirely though. I am a strong believer in drafting a backup QB. A lot of Fantasy Football analysts would disagree with me but they’re wrong. First of all there’s always a serious QB injury early in the season. Having a backup QB like Roethlisberger or Carr provides piece of mind. Even if your QB goes unscathed. Limiting what’s available off the waiver wire is strategic as well. You also won’t have to scramble during your Starter’s bye week. I have also spot started my Backup against really weak defenses to good effect. If you are really lucky your backup becomes your starter. That happened on quite a few winning teams in Lamar Jackson’s MVP season.
RECENT QUARTERBACK MOCK DRAFT POSITION AVERAGE FROM FANTASY FOOTBALL CALCULATOR WEBSITE
QB1 – Patrick Mahomes 22nd pick QB2 – Josh Allen 37th pick QB3 – Kyler Murray 44th pick QB4 – Lamar Jackson 51rst pick QB5 – Dak Prescott 58th pick QB6 – Justin Herbert 63rd pick QB7 – Aaron Rodgers 66th pick QB8 – Russell Wilson 70th pick QB9 – Tom Brady 79th pick QB10 – Matthew Stafford 88th pick QB11 – Jalen Hurts 97th pick QB12 – Ryan Tannehill 100th pick QB13 – Joe Burrow 107th pick QB14 – Matt Ryan 124th pick QB15 – Trevor Lawrence 128th pick QB16 – Deshaun Watson 130th pick QB17 – Baker Mayfield 140th pick QB20 – Ben Roethlisberger 169th pick QB21 – Justin Fields 179th pick QB22 – Ryan Fitzpatrick 191rst pick QB23 – Derek Carr 192nd pick QB25 – Tua Tagovailoa 198th pick QB26 – Jameis Winston 207th pick
personally I play in 12 team leagues with 15 or 16 Round drafts. So even in a 16 Round draft a number of the QBs I listed in my Tiers wouldn’t get drafted.
now examining the Tier 1 QBs from my list. The most expensive Quarterback this season is once again Patrick Mahomes. In a 12 Team league he is going at the end of the second Round. The best buys in Tier 1 are Dak Prescott and Lamar Jackson going in the fifth Round. I am ignoring Aaron Rodgers for now because of his uncertain situation. How much better would Patrick Mahomes need to be to justify picking him 3 Rounds earlier? Chances are he won’t perform significantly better enough. Using the Tier Value Draft System there’s a good chance that any Team that drafted in Round five had a chance at a Tier 1 QB. IT PAYS TO WAIT!
Always be aware of which teams picking ahead of you have filled roster positions. If the teams picking ahead of you have already drafted a QB then you should be good to land the next QB on your list.
looking at the Tier 2 Quarterbacks, Herbert went in the early 6th Round. That’s a heavy price to pay for a Tier 2 QB. The fact that 2 of my Tier 1 QBs went just one Round earlier increases how valuable those picks were. Both Ryan Tannehill and Joe Burrow fell to the 8th Round. I would say that’s a competitive price for a Tier 2 QB. You gain 3 Rounds of VALUE against the cheapest Tier 1 QBs, and an enormous 6 Rounds of VALUE against the Team that selected Patrick Mahomes in the second Round! Try to imagine how much better Patrick Mahomes would have to be than Tannehill or Burrow to justify the cost? 12 points per game maybe? Is that a realistic ask?
once again considering that Tannehill and Burrow went near the beginning and end of that Round. Any of the Teams involved in those drafts had a fair shot of waiting until the rest of the Tier got picked to select them. IT PAYS TO WAIT!
MAKE YOUR TIER LISTS SCRATCH OFF EACH PLAYER AS THEY GET SELECTED WHEN THERE ARE ONLY A FEW LEFT PICK ONE! WHEN A TIER EMPTIES – PICK YOUR FAVOURITE PLAYER FROM ANOTHER POSITION YOU REQUIRE AT A HIGHER TIER! WIN YOUR DRAFT
Corbert de Ronde Fantasy Football Expert Pro Sports Podcasters
Covid-19 has already affected the NFL in Free Agency. Some of the top players on the market have found themselves unsigned, or accepting less money because teams are unable to perform a physical. Quite a few players have signed short 1 or 2 year contracts with this Season in jeopardy. Players that have moved to a new organization won’t have nearly as much time to practice with their teammates, and learn a new offensive or defensive system. Teams with new coaches could find themselves completely lost.
NFL Draft
We now know that the NFL will have a virtual draft beginning as scheduled on April 23rd. Whenever established systems are changed problems can occur. Especially in cases like this one where the changes are precipitated by an emergency, and forced into implementation. Does that mean more picks won’t get in, or trades will become far more difficult to complete? We will to wait for the draft to find out.
What will the NFL Draft look like? Players obviously won’t be walking out on to a virtual stage, and giving Roger Goodell a hug. We won’t see whole families celebrate together when their relatives name gets called. How many front office executives will be in each team’s war room? The draft selections for each team could ultimately be decided by the fewest number of people ever. Instead of a group of people debating about their next pick. Their might be only a couple of key executives from each organization that decides this is our guy. If they get it right then they get all the credit. What if they get it wrong? It’s hard to pass the buck when there’s no one else to blame.
Preseason
What will become of preseason? Those of you that follow my social media accounts, and this blog know I follow Golf as well. Well the PGA has decided to reschedule some events beginning in August. At least that’s the current plan. Honestly that sounds a bit optimistic to me. The Covid-19 crisis is currently out of control in the United States of America. The number of infections per day is higher there than anywhere else. Assuming that things will be under control by August is optimistic to put it mildly. Keep in mind that’s golf. A game that can be played in small groups, and quite frankly without an audience. NFL football is an entirely different animal. The NFL is first and foremost a money making machine. Preseason does make them some money, but it’s more about assessing the condition, and skill of the Players. Teams can figure that out for themselves without playing preseason games. Owners would rather not risk their highest paid stars in games that essentially mean nothing anyways. For those reasons I don’t expect to see any preseason games being played this year.
Regular Season
When will the regular season begin? Will there be a full schedule of games played? Will fans be present for the games? These are all questions that are currently impossible to answer. As the beginning of the Regular Season approaches I will update you on what is most likely to happen. For now I will continue to post NFL news, predictions, and Fantasy Football advice on my social media accounts as though there will be NFL football. Lets all hope that those future posts are relevant, and this current crisis is quickly under control.
This game required overtime to finally decide the winner. In the end the Home team Houston Texans won. I picked the Texans to win, but with Will Fuller out I knew it could be close. Without Will Fuller the Texans aren’t able to attack down field. When they are unable to stretch the field the intermediate routes get taken away by the safeties. This forced the Texans to play a very conservative short pass offense. Their running game is mediocre so play action wasn’t much of an option either. They would have to grind it out to win.
The Buffalo Bills were the lucky recipients of one of the easiest schedules in the NFL this Season. In order to finish with a 10-6 regular season record. They only had to beat 1 team with a winning record. This was the biggest factor that contributed to my pick of the Houston Texans. Their inexperience against quality opponents had me thinking that costly mistakes would be made. If the Texans play like that next week they will get thumped.
New England Patriots vs Tennessee Titans
As soon as I saw this match up I knew what would happen. The Patriots were the recipient of the absolute easiest schedule in football. They were also coming off a loss to the Miami Dolphins! Vegas still had them as the favourite which was ridiculous. I predicted that Derrick Henry was going to run all over them, and he did. The Patriots Defense was so ineffective against the run, that the Titans continued to run the ball during the 2 minute offense at the end of the first half. Vrabel even used a Belichick trick, and took multiple delay of game penalties to burn the clock. The Patriots won’t have the benefit of such an easy schedule next Season. It remains to be seen if this was Tom Brady’s last game as a New England Patriot.
New Orleans Saints vs Minnesota Vikings
The Saints were my pick to win the Superbowl so obviously I got this one wrong. This was a game decided by mistakes. It required overtime to decide the winner, but in my opinion it was over before that. Most people, myself included probably expected the Minnesota Vikings to be the team that made the big mistakes. Kirk Cousins record in big games is far from exemplary. Drew Brees on the other hand generally plays his best on a big stage. Not in this game. Drew Brees made one of the ugliest fumbles I’ve seen in quite some time. Generally speaking a Quarterback shouldn’t fumble the ball when they are fully aware of where the pressure is coming from. With the New Orleans Saints in scoring position Drew Brees fumbled the ball, and that was pretty much the game.
Seattle Seahawks vs Philadelphia Eagles
I am a huge Seahawks fan so that factored into my pick of them to win a little bit. Really though it was the injury depleted Eagles that gave me confidence. I didn’t expect Carson Wentz to get knocked out of the game at the end of the first quarter though. That pretty much spelled the end of them. Honestly if Carson Wentz had come back after half time I think the Seahawks would have lost. Josh McCown couldn’t convert two fourth down attempts. I’m certain Carson Wentz would have converted at least one. The real standout in this game was rookie DK Metcalf. He finished with 7 receptions for 160 yards, and a touchdown. Not bad for a Wide Receiver that every team passed on.
All in all it was a great Wild Card Weekend. The real games begin next week.
As you all know, I am a huge fan of the NFL. Football is easily the greatest spectator sport. Whether you are watching it on television, or live at the stadium. It is an amazing experience.
As a dedicated fan of a couple teams. Part of what makes football so special is the parity created by the Salary Cap, and NFL draft. Even if your team finishes last in a Season. It might only take a couple of Seasons to be back in the Playoffs if you have a smart General Manager. Some teams have suffered due to poor management, or just a poor situation that prevents them from improving. Fortunately for me my two favourite teams have always been relevant.
Generally each Season there are about four teams that lack the necessary talent to compete. This happens for a number of reasons. Some teams are in a rebuilding phase with a number of rookie Players at key positions. Some teams suffer due to injuries to key players. Some teams have issues adjusting to a new coaches scheme. Whatever it might be the reason is obvious and understood by both the fans, and the rest of the league.
This Season there are much more than the usual three or four teams that can’t cut it. In no particular order they are the New York Jets, Cincinnati Bengals, Miami Dolphins, Cleveland Browns, Washington Redskins, Denver Broncos, Arizona Cardinals, Atlanta Falcons, New York Giants, and Chicago Bears. That’s right 10 teams in the NFL are basically irrelevant. Keep in mind that there are only 32 teams in the entire league. So what has happened this Season?
A few of the 10 teams were expected to be bad. The Miami Dolphins, Cincinnati Bengals, and Washington Redskins began the Season with very little expectations for success. The Arizona Cardinals started the Season with a new Head Coach, and Rookie Quarterback so they are doing about as well as can be expected. I think everyone expected Daniel Jones to take over from Eli Manning at some point, so the New York Giants are rebuilding as well. That makes 5 teams everyone can accept are uncompetitive. What about the other 5? The Cleveland Browns were supposed to finally compete. The addition of Odell Beckham Jr., to an already strong receiving corps. Nick Chubb at Running Back, and of course cocky Baker Mayfield at Quarterback. People were picking the to win their division. Not anymore! I honestly feel bad for the Browns fans. This was finally going to be their time to shine. The New York Jets looked like they might actually challenge the Patriots with the off season addition of Le’Veon Bell, and CJ Mosley. Well that’s not happening. The Denver Broncos thought they could resurrect Joe Flacco’s career. To be honest as a Broncos fan I didn’t think it was possible. Turns out I was right. The Atlanta Falcons look like a solid team on paper. Too bad for them this game isn’t played on paper, because on the field they have been horrible. The Chicago Bears were 12-4 last season, and won their division. To be fair I felt their record was a bit deceiving last season. They won a few games through incredibly strong Defensive play. The NFL has done all it can to limit Defenses. You can’t expect a team to continue to get by on great Defense alone. The Chicago Offense is garbage. Watch any of their games and I am sure you’ll agree. In today’s NFL that isn’t a recipe for success. Defensive coaches should take notice.
What can be done?
First of all bet against any of the 10 teams I mentioned above, unless they are playing against each other. Strike while the iron is hot. Another side effect of such lopsided divisions is the reduced number of games worth watching. I have never skipped watching this many NFL games before. Maybe if we all ignore the truly horrendous mismatches the NFL will take notice. Nobody wants to say it but for at least a decade the NY Jets, Miami Dolphins, and Buffalo Bills have been tanking it. Why, because they don’t want to invest in players while Belichick and Brady are in their division. It’s not coincidental that both the Buffalo Bills and New York Jets are developing their Quarterbacks of the future now. Most people would predict that Brady is maybe two years from retirement. In fact one more Superbowl could be enough for him to call it quits. When he leaves the division is there for the taking. They are finally beginning to build a team that would stand a chance. The Collective Bargaining Agreement is coming to an end. Hopefully the league will address some of the current issues, and make changes that will prevent non competitive seasons like this in the future.
If you follow me on my various Social Media channels?
YouTube – Cobe Life
Instagram – Cobesports
Twitter – Cobeness
Then you will know what my Fantasy Football philosophies are. I use a Tier based Fantasy draft value selection process. I place additional importance on Running Backs over every other position. I prefer to draft a Quarterback in the middle Rounds, and then draft a QB with upside late. I usually wait as long as possible to draft a tier two Tight End. I stock up on Players in high powered Offenses. I will draft a Defense in a weak Division over a highly ranked Defense that’s in a tough Division.
MY EXPERT LEAGUE TEAM
The Gridiron Pros League has been running for over a decade. It is a 12 Team PPR Experts League that allows you to Keep two Players to carry over into the next Season. There is no cost to your Keeper selections so it makes sense to keep whichever two Players you believe are the most valuable. All touchdowns earn the Player 6 points whether it’s a Run, Catch, or Pass.
Quarterbacks get 1pt/30yrds, -1pt/sack, -2pt/interception. There is a 5pt bonus for throwing for over 400yrds.
Rushing is scored at 1pt/10yrds. There is a 5pt bonus for rushing for over 100yrds, and an additional 5pts if they break 200yrds.
Receiving is scored at 1pt/10yrds. There is a 5pt bonus for receiving for over 100yrds, and an additional 2pts if they break 200yrds.
With that in mind here is my current roster to begin Week 5.
QB Carson Wentz – acquired via trade for Aaron Jones I drafted in the 3rd Round (gained 2020 3rd)
QB Josh Allen – Drafted
QB Baker Mayfield – Free Agent
RB Alvin Kamara – Keeper
RB Mark Ingram – Keeper
RB Chris Carson – Drafted
RB Ronald Jones – Waivers
WR Robert Woods – Drafted
WR Alshon Jeffrey – Drafted
WR Courtland Sutton – Drafted
WR DeSean Jackson – Drafted
WR A.J. Green – Drafted
TE Evan Engram – Drafted
TE Chris Herndon – Free Agent
DST L.A. Chargers – Drafted
K Eddy Pineiro – Free Agent
THINGS OF NOTE
I told my Followers to Trade Jarvis Landry, Frank Gore, or Aaron Jones at the beginning of this week. What did I do in my single most important league? I TRADED AARON JONES! Proving once again that I practice what I preach.
Usually I wait on a Tight End, and draft one of the last Tier 2 Players available. In this particular draft I ranked Evan Engram as a tier 1 Tight End. The other 3 Tier 1 Tight Ends went off the board fast. Allowing me to Draft Engram at a considerable value so I did.
The only reason I currently have three Quarterbacks is because Baker was a Free Agent. He showed some promise in his last game. I can see what he does this Week and decide what to do with him. I had space on my bench so why not.
My Wide Receivers are thin due to injury. If DeSean Jackson, or A.J. Green aren’t back soon? I will be forced to see what’s available on waivers, or make a trade. I specifically picked up Chris Herndon in Free Agency as potential Trade bait later.
THERE ARE A NUMBER OF NOTABLE ABSENCES ON MY ROSTER. THINGS THAT OTHER ANALYSTS WILL TELL YOU THAT YOU CAN’T GO WITHOUT.
David Montgomery was being aggressively hyped by quite a few Fantasy Football analysts. I could have drafted him but I didn’t. The reason was simple. The hype made his price too high. You know who I got instead? Chris Carson in the fourth Round. David Montgomery’s ADP in 2019 was in the middle of the 3rd Round. Tell me which Running Back you would rather have goung into Week 5?
I don’t have a Top Tier Wide Receiver! The variance in Fantasy points from week to week with Wide Receivers is far greater than Running Backs. It’s not because they have a greater breakout potential either. Running Backs and Wide Receivers have about the same odds to breakout. The variance comes from the significantly lower floor Wide Receivers have the potential of hitting. Starting Running Backs always get touches. Touches are what create opportunities. Wide Receivers will have games with little to no touches. No touches means no opportunities. So I don’t see the need to draft high value Wide Receivers. Instead I load up on Wide Receivers in high powered Offenses. In this case the Philadelphia Eagles, and Los Angeles Rams. I also added number 1 Receivers on bad teams that I could draft really cheap. Those would be Courtland Sutton, and A.J. Green. Teams playing from behind have to throw the ball, and in those cases their number 1 Wide Receiver usually gets touches.
If you want honest Fantasy Football advice designed to help you actually win then…
So Week 1 of the 2019 NFL Season is in the books. There are a lot of questions left without definitive answers, but we do know a few things.
Here is a list of what we know.
THE AFC EAST IS A JOKE
The New England Patriots will once again continue to have the easiest path to the Superbowl. The Miami Dolphins aren’t just bad. They are definitely the worst team in the entire NFL. Watching the Baltimore Ravens steamroll them to a 59-10 win reminded me of watching the Harlem Globetrotters toy with the Washington Generals as a kid. It didn’t seem fair. The only reason the Buffalo Bills get to begin the Season with a win is because they didn’t play quite as bad as the New York Jets. There was talk of Josh Rosen working on his accuracy during the Off season. It sure didn’t look like it to me. The Jets lost 17-16 after having a 16 point lead. That should about tell you how well organized that team is. Unless the Patriots are feeling charitable that’s 6 wins in the bag. Add their win against Pittsburgh and they are already 7-0 on the Season. Sounds like a pretty easy road to the Superbowl.
PATRICK MAHOMES IS STILL MVP
Mahomes continued from right where he left off. Took him less than two minutes to throw his first TD of the Season. His top playmaker Tyreek Hill got hurt early in the game, and it didn’t even slow him down a little. Instead he helped Sammy Watkins have the best game of his career. It wouldn’t surprise me if the AFC comes down to Brady vs Mahomes again.
RUNNING BACKS AREN’T OBSOLETE
The NFL has done everything possible to make it a passing league. Dalvin Cook, Austin Ekeler, Christian McCaffery, Derrick Henry, and Chris Carson proved that a strong running game can still compete. McCaffery and Cook accounted for the majority of their team’s offense. You can make it almost impossible to hit a Quarterback, increase the catch window to four times the size it used to be, make it illegal to tackle Wide Receivers if they can’t see you, and only allow Quarterbacks to be tackled between the shoulders and thighs provided they still have the ball – aren’t in the process of passing – and you don’t land on top of them with your full weight. You still can’t deny the strength of gaining 4 yards at a time while the clock keeps running.
ROOKIE COACHES ARE CLUELESS
Kliff Kingsbury’s Air Raid Offense looked completely out of sorts. It took a Matt Patricia decision to play prevent Defense and stop pressuring Kyler Murray to let them execute. Matt Patricia isn’t a Rookie Head Coach but he might as well be. Freddie Kitchens coaching in his first Season opener looked like a total nube. Absolutely poor play calling, as well as an inability to keep his team under control resulted in two Player ejections. The majority of veteran coaches that switched teams failed to win as well.
THE FOUR TEAMS TO BEAT
There were two teams in the AFC, and two teams in the NFC that appeared to be significantly ahead of the rest. In the AFC it was the Kansas City Chiefs, and the New England Patriots. In the NFC we were treated to what could be the game of the year when we got to watch the top two teams go head to head on Monday night. The New Orleans Saints, and the Houston Texans looked amazing.
THE SECRET TO WINNING AT DAILY FANTASY FOOTBALL IS TO PLAY AS MANY PLAYERS AS YOU CAN AGAINST MIAMI.
Every Season there are a few Players that get overlooked for any number of reasons. These are the Players that could prove to be the reason you make the playoffs. After completing a number of drafts it has become obvious to me who they are.
Josh Gordon
Everyone knows who Josh Gordon is. When he is playing at his top level he is one of the most talented Wide Receivers in the league. Of course there is the extensive list of off field issues which have led to multiple suspensions.
The league agreed to reinstate him in early August. This was late enough in the off season to limit the amount of chatter about his fantasy impact on the New England Patriots. Josh Gordon is the best WR1 Tom Brady has had the pleasure to throw to since Randy Moss. It took a few games for the Brady to Gordon connection to start working. Once they got their timing down though Josh Gordon became a serious weapon. With Gronk gone Brady needs a reliable endzone target and Gordon will be it. It wouldn’t surprise me if he finishes as a high WR2 in fantasy but he isn’t being drafted as such.
A.J. Green
Here is another Player slipping till later in drafts that could potentially take the right fantasy football team to the championship. A.J. Green has dealt with injuries the last couple of Seasons. He will begin this Season on the sidelines with an ankle injury. He is likely to miss the first 4 games of the Season. He is being drafted in some leagues like even when he returns he will perform like a Flex starter. When A.J. Green is on the field he is a WR1 in Fantasy Football. He is still one of the most difficult Players to defend in the NFL. If you find yourself in the Playoffs and are fortunate enough to be able to start A.J. Green in your Flex spot. Trust me when I tell you that your opponent will feel like things don’t look fair.
Aaron Jones
Will Aaron Jones gets the increased workload that everyone hopes he will get in the new Green Bay Packers Offense? If he does he could finish as a Top 5 Fantasy Football Running Back. With Ty Montgomery gone his number of touches should increase. What everyone in the Fantasy Football community seems to be afraid of is whether new coach Matt LaFleur will make him the featured back, or have him split carries with Jamaal Williams. Even if they do split carries, where Aaron Jones is going in drafts still makes him a high upside RB2 that you can get quite late. In two of the most competitive leagues I’m in I was able to draft him as my RB3. If he gives me RB2 production that’s a steal. If he becomes the featured RB and finishes the Season with RB1 numbers that’s a League winner!
Cooper Kupp
Classic case of Fantasy Football Managers being seriously afraid of Players coming back from injury. The days of torn ACLs ending careers is far gone. Modern medicine has made recovery times shorter, and allowed Players to return with the same ability they had before the injury.
Before Cooper Kupp tore his ACL he was averaging 5 catches for 70 yards and almost a touchdown per game. In PPR that’s 18pts/game. I’ll take that as my 7th Round pick where I got him in a draft last night. Brandin Cooks, and Robert Woods are going much earlier in drafts but don’t provide better upside. When I drafted Cooper Kupp last night I already had Julio Jones, and Tyler Lockett as my Starters. I picked up Dante Pettis, and Mike Williams later as backups. If Cooper picks up where he left off I’m laughing. If he doesn’t it won’t hurt me.
It’s about Value
I’ve said it again and again. Every Player is draftable for the right price. When a total bargain is staring you in the face don’t pass it up. It doesn’t matter what the so called “experts” say. When you find yourself in the League final send them a screenshot with a roster full of Players they told you to avoid.
Anyone that makes there picks based entirely upon Average Draft Position is practically guaranteed to lose. If you have played Fantasy Football for more than 1 season then you should already know that I am right. Then why is it that 90% of the “fantasy football experts” base their analysis on ADP? Then every one of you that tunes into their YouTube, Facebook, Instagram, or Website uses their findings to plan your draft around.
Last season Patrick Mahomes was the top QB but his ADP was around 100th overall. George Kittle finished the season as the number 2 TE but in most leagues he wasn’t being drafted until after the 10th round! In my most competitive league which has been running for over a decade, both Players went way before their Average Draft Position. The Managers have learned in that League that if you see something special in a Player, and you want him on your roster. You have to ignore that Player’s ADP because he could go 3 Rounds earlier easily.
If you really think about it, and look at how we arrive at Average Draft Positions. The Average Draft Position of each Player is determined by calculating where they have been drafted most often in a huge number of mock drafts. This immediately creates two problems. The first is that in every real draft there is 1 winner, and 11 losers in a 12 team league. Yet Average Draft Position is determined by all 12 participants. Obviously the majority of the selections were poor, or absolute crap. The second issue with Mock Drafts in particular is that they provide you with a ranking or grade at the end of it. That grade is based on the projections (educated guess) made by the creator of the software. Well if their educated guesses were correct you could simply win every draft by allowing your website of choice to Auto Draft for you. I think everyone knows that auto drafting rarely works out well.
What Average Draft Position has successfully done is create opportunities for savvy Managers to take advantage of Players who have been incorrectly projected by the software creators, and therefore drafted later by the legions of poor mock drafters.
Veteran Fantasy Gold
There are 4 players in this category that have the ability, situation, and opportunity to provide you with an advantage over your opponents. All 4 of them are going in the 8th Round of drafts or later, and in some cases aren’t even being drafted at all in some leagues.
Adrian Peterson
Undeniably one of the best to ever play the position, and despite his age still puts up fantasy relevant numbers. Last Season he had over 1000 rushing yards, another 200 yards through the air, and 8 total touchdowns. Those are RB2 numbers, and last season he wasn’t even drafted in most leagues. So much for ADP. Sure Derrius Guice is back, but you can’t expect Washington to just drop a full workload in his lap. Not to mention there’s no guarantee that Guice will remain healthy all season. My guess is that at worst Adrian Peterson splits carries with Guice this season. That would make him a viable flex starter, and a serviceable backup in case your roster gets diminished by injury. If Guice isn’t 100% then Adrian Peterson becomes an RB2 once again. It never hurts to have a couple of those on the roster.
Tom Brady
Brady has been going undrafted a lot this season, and that shouldn’t be the case. I’m not telling you to make him your stating QB. Draft him as a backup to begin the season, and he’s also a great spot starter against weaker teams. His numbers weren’t spectacular last season, but they weren’t bad either. Everyone keeps harping on about the loss of Gronk but I actually prefer his targets available to him this season. Edelman, N’Keal Harry, Josh Gordon, Demaryius Thomas, James White, and Sony Michel. If the majority of those players stay healthy, and out of trouble that’s ridiculous! Now given those names I know that’s a big IF. What are you really risking though if you select Brady in the late rounds of your draft. You know what the best part is? The Patriots have a history of running up the score against weaker teams. Teams like the Miami Dolphins, Buffalo Bills, and New York Jets. It’s no wonder they get to the playoffs with relative ease every single season.
Larry Fitzgerald & DeSean Jackson
I listed these 2 veterans together because they are in similar situations. Both of them are playing for a team they feel incredibly comfortable with. Both have the ability to completely take over a game when given the opportunity. Both have to adjust to an offense they weren’t in last season. The best part is that both are being overshadowed by other players on their team in drafts. Christian Kirk is being drafted way before Larry Fitzgerald in most drafts. I understand the upside with Christian Kirk but sometimes a high floor is what’s needed, and Fitzgerald gives you that. With a new QB, Offense, and Head Coach you might want to feed one of the most sure-handed receivers in history the ball. Just saying.
With Carson Wentz coming back from injury the Philadelphia Eagles will do whatever they can to keep him healthy. One such way is to keep Defenses honest. I expect a balanced attack between Run and Pass. The only way you can maintain that balance and win games is to have success at both. Last season that wasn’t the case so the Eagles addressed it in the off season. To improve their run game they brought in Jordan Howard, and drafted Miles Sanders. To prevent defenses from stacking the box they brought back DeSean Jackson. You want to limit the pressure on Wentz, and provide him with a deep target to take the top off defenses. There’s no better way than adding someone like DeSean Jackson. He will play a similar role for Wentz that Hill plays for Mahomes, and you saw how that worked out.
Opportunity is knocking
Two more players that find themselves in advantageous situations are Dede Westbrook, and Marquez Valdes-Scantling.
Dede Westbrook had a decent season in his second year with Jacksonville. He finished with 66 catches for 717 yards, and 5 touchdowns. Not bad numbers considering Blake Bortles was under center having a down season. About the only thing worse than Blake Bortles having a down season is Nathan Peterman having one. With the off season acquisition of superbowl MVP Nick Foles things are bound to improve. How much will they improve is the real question< and so far the majority of drafters out there don’t expect much. I would expect a 20% improvement at least, with far more opportunities in the red zone. It wouldn’t surprise me if he finished the season with around 900 yards and 8 touchdowns. His ceiling is significantly higher though. I’ll draft him with confidence.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling could very well be Aaron Rodgers number 2 target this season. That should be enough to peak your interest right there. He has looked unstoppable in the preseason. Granted it is the preseason but that’s a good indicator that he’s feeling completely confident entering the season. Aaron Rodgers also seems especially motivated this year. The entire NFC should be worried about that. If you can remember the break out seasons that Randall Cobb had as Aaron Rodgers number 2. Then you know what is possible for Marquez this season. 1000 yards and double digit touchdowns aren’t out of the question.
YOU CAN TRUST ADP IF YOU WANT – BUT IF YOU ARE SERIOUS ABOUT WINNING – I SUGGEST THAT YOU DON’T !!!
