Drafting a Quarterback
Choosing when to draft a Quarterback is one of the most important decisions you will make. The top Running Backs will be off the board within the first two rounds. After they’re all gone second, and third tier Running Backs are plentiful. Other than a handful of marquee Wide Receivers. There are plenty of useful options at Wide Receiver that can be had all the way through your draft. The Tight End position even simpler. Outside of taking Gronkowski early. The difference in quality between the majority of Tight Ends is insignificant.
Things are far different when comparing Quarterbacks. The difference in fantasy production from tier to tier is far greater. A top tier Quarterback can earn you an extra five to ten fantasy points over your opponent if they have a third tier Quarterback. In a twelve team league at least a third of the teams will have a third tier Quarterback. This is a disadvantage that you shouldn’t take lightly.
When preparing for your draft it’s important to pay attention to which teams are in your division. Many leagues including mine automatically get you into the playoffs if you win your division. My leagues are twelve teams with three divisions. You play each team in your division twice. Obviously how my team performs against my division rivals is extremely important. So how do I make sure my team keeps pace? I pay close attention to who my division rivals are picking during the draft. This is especially true when deciding when to draft my Quarterback. Lets say my plan going into the draft is to pick a Quarterback with big play potential like Eli Manning, or Carson Palmer. Third tier Quarterbacks with an eighth Round value in my opinion. This allows me to top load my team with Running Backs and Wide Receivers. What happens if somebody in my division drafts Aaron Rodgers with their first pick? Suddenly any Quarterback I pick is at a serious disadvantage against this division rival. Of course I had previously decided not to waste an early Round pick on the best Quarterback in Fantasy. I knew somebody was going to take him. Unfortunately he landed in my division. Still I’m not too worried because I got A.J. Green with the 10th pick, and he will be better than any Wide Receiver that Manager drafts. Fast forward to the third Round, and another Manager in my division picks Tom Brady. It’s at this point that my original plan suddenly appears sorely insufficient.
Considering that I will have to play each Manager in my division twice. I’m now faced with a twelve game regular season that includes a third of the season against two of the best Quarterbacks in Fantasy. Selecting either one of my targeted Quarterbacks would leave me at a major positional disadvantage. At this point I was forced to adjust my draft Strategy, and target a second tier Quarterback. I quickly checked the board to see who was available. I placed all of the second tier Quarterbacks in my queue. Then I continued to follow my draft Strategy until only two was left. When my next pick came around there was only one left so I snatched him up.
On a draft Application like nfl.com it’s always a good idea to fill your queue with potential picks. This is especially true if you aren’t emotionally attached to any specific Player. For me that means Quarterbacks, and Tight Ends tend to clog up my queue. I won’t reach for a top tier Quarterback, or Gronkowski. So who I get at either position just needs to be a competitive Fantasy Player.
To help you decide which Quarterbacks to target going into your draft. I’ll quickly go over three categories of Quarterbacks I’ve identified.
Top tier Quarterbacks
Aaron Rodgers: honestly Aaron Rodgers could be in a category all by himself. The most dominant Quarterback in Fantasy Football. His situation in Green Bay is a Fantasy Manager’s wet dream. He’s so important to the offence, and so successful. Green Bay seems disinterested in finding a quality Running Back for him to hand off to. He’s really the only Quarterback that could be drafted in the first Round. If you want him on your team you had better be ready to pay up.
Drew Brees: a threat to break 5000 yards passing every single Season. That about says it right there. You are practically guaranteed at least 30 touchdowns. It’s also a benefit to whoever drafts him that the New Orleans Saints Defence couldn’t stop the Toronto Argos from scoring. Brees finds himself playing from behind all too often. Getting the ball down field fast, and in to the end zone is a necessity.
Tom Brady: as long as he is healthy, Tom Brady will continue to put up huge numbers. As an added bonus the Patriots like to run up the score against weak opponents. With teams like the Bills, and the Jets in their division. You are practically guaranteed to get some huge Fantasy weeks out of Brady.
Andrew Luck: Andrew Luck can be considered a borderline top tier/second tier Quarterback. There’s the concern surrounding his recent shoulder surgery. There’s also the concern surrounding his offensive line. If he comes back healthy? There’s no guarantee that he will remain healthy for long. If the Offensive line can prevent Luck from looking like he just went 10 rounds with Mike Tyson every game? Then Andrew Luck could become the Top Quarterback in Fantasy Football. He’s that good.
Second tier Quarterbacks
Marcus Mariota: he has had a lot of success in Fantasy Football already. Considering that he hasn’t had top level receiving targets. His Fantasy numbers are really based on his talent alone. The Titans rewarded him with three new offensive targets in the Draft. If even one of them pan out. Expect Mariota to have a great Season.
Kirk Cousins: another great Season, and what does he get? One more year under the franchise tag. He could have accepted a contract that would have made him the second highest paid Quarterback. Instead he chose to gamble on himself. If he puts together another great Season. He stands to become the highest paid Player in the league. He could also end up at the helm of a true contender. All of this is music to a Fantasy Manager’s ears. He lost Pierre Garcon, and DeSean Jackson in the off season. Honestly though with what is at stake for Cousins. I’m not worried.
Jameis Winston: not only does he keep improving every year. The Bucs did him a huge favour by signing DeSean Jackson in the off season. Read my full Jameis Winston analysis on the Starting from Scratch post SF-7.
Derek Carr: a young talented Quarterback, on one of the most star packed teams. Sounds like a great situation for success right. What many people overlook is how a great Defence adds value to their Quarterback. The more three and outs they get. The more opportunities their Quarterback will have to earn you points. Derek Carr will have a great Season.
The last category consists of a group of Quarterbacks that could surprise many people in Fantasy Football. Matt Ryan’s ridiculous Season last year was an example.
Top 5 potential breakout Quarterbacks
Cam Newton: new offensive Weapons, only one Season removed from an MVP.
Eli Manning: addition of Brandon Marshall makes the Giants Wide Receiver tandem brutally difficult to defend.
Tyrod Taylor: always a threat on his feet, a healthy Sammy Watkins greatly increases his ceiling, needs to prove to the Bills that he’s their future.
Ben Roethlisberger: deep threat Martavis Bryant is back, will have Le’Veon Bell for a full Season.
Andy Dalton: the addition of Joe Mixon and John Ross, a healthy Tyler Eifert, needs to rebound from a statistically poor Season.
Hopefully this will help you put a plan in place to draft the best possible Quarterback. Even if the unexpected happens in your draft.
