Month: August 2019

Categories
FANTASY

2019 FANTASY FOOTBALL STEALS

Every Season there are a few Players that get overlooked for any number of reasons. These are the Players that could prove to be the reason you make the playoffs. After completing a number of drafts it has become obvious to me who they are.

Josh Gordon

Everyone knows who Josh Gordon is. When he is playing at his top level he is one of the most talented Wide Receivers in the league. Of course there is the extensive list of off field issues which have led to multiple suspensions.

The league agreed to reinstate him in early August. This was late enough in the off season to limit the amount of chatter about his fantasy impact on the New England Patriots. Josh Gordon is the best WR1 Tom Brady has had the pleasure to throw to since Randy Moss. It took a few games for the Brady to Gordon connection to start working. Once they got their timing down though Josh Gordon became a serious weapon. With Gronk gone Brady needs a reliable endzone target and Gordon will be it. It wouldn’t surprise me if he finishes as a high WR2 in fantasy but he isn’t being drafted as such.

A.J. Green

Here is another Player slipping till later in drafts that could potentially take the right fantasy football team to the championship. A.J. Green has dealt with injuries the last couple of Seasons. He will begin this Season on the sidelines with an ankle injury. He is likely to miss the first 4 games of the Season. He is being drafted in some leagues like even when he returns he will perform like a Flex starter. When A.J. Green is on the field he is a WR1 in Fantasy Football. He is still one of the most difficult Players to defend in the NFL. If you find yourself in the Playoffs and are fortunate enough to be able to start A.J. Green in your Flex spot. Trust me when I tell you that your opponent will feel like things don’t look fair.

Aaron Jones

Will Aaron Jones gets the increased workload that everyone hopes he will get in the new Green Bay Packers Offense? If he does he could finish as a Top 5 Fantasy Football Running Back. With Ty Montgomery gone his number of touches should increase. What everyone in the Fantasy Football community seems to be afraid of is whether new coach Matt LaFleur will make him the featured back, or have him split carries with Jamaal Williams. Even if they do split carries, where Aaron Jones is going in drafts still makes him a high upside RB2 that you can get quite late. In two of the most competitive leagues I’m in I was able to draft him as my RB3. If he gives me RB2 production that’s a steal. If he becomes the featured RB and finishes the Season with RB1 numbers that’s a League winner!

Cooper Kupp

Classic case of Fantasy Football Managers being seriously afraid of Players coming back from injury. The days of torn ACLs ending careers is far gone. Modern medicine has made recovery times shorter, and allowed Players to return with the same ability they had before the injury.

Before Cooper Kupp tore his ACL he was averaging 5 catches for 70 yards and almost a touchdown per game. In PPR that’s 18pts/game. I’ll take that as my 7th Round pick where I got him in a draft last night. Brandin Cooks, and Robert Woods are going much earlier in drafts but don’t provide better upside. When I drafted Cooper Kupp last night I already had Julio Jones, and Tyler Lockett as my Starters. I picked up Dante Pettis, and Mike Williams later as backups. If Cooper picks up where he left off I’m laughing. If he doesn’t it won’t hurt me.

It’s about Value

I’ve said it again and again. Every Player is draftable for the right price. When a total bargain is staring you in the face don’t pass it up. It doesn’t matter what the so called “experts” say. When you find yourself in the League final send them a screenshot with a roster full of Players they told you to avoid.

Categories
FANTASY

2019 FANTASY FOOTBALL DRAFT BARGAINS

Average Draft Positions are Flawed

Anyone that makes there picks based entirely upon Average Draft Position is practically guaranteed to lose. If you have played Fantasy Football for more than 1 season then you should already know that I am right. Then why is it that 90% of the “fantasy football experts” base their analysis on ADP? Then every one of you that tunes into their YouTube, Facebook, Instagram, or Website uses their findings to plan your draft around.

Last season Patrick Mahomes was the top QB but his ADP was around 100th overall. George Kittle finished the season as the number 2 TE but in most leagues he wasn’t being drafted until after the 10th round! In my most competitive league which has been running for over a decade, both Players went way before their Average Draft Position. The Managers have learned in that League that if you see something special in a Player, and you want him on your roster. You have to ignore that Player’s ADP because he could go 3 Rounds earlier easily.

If you really think about it, and look at how we arrive at Average Draft Positions. The Average Draft Position of each Player is determined by calculating where they have been drafted most often in a huge number of mock drafts. This immediately creates two problems. The first is that in every real draft there is 1 winner, and 11 losers in a 12 team league. Yet Average Draft Position is determined by all 12 participants. Obviously the majority of the selections were poor, or absolute crap. The second issue with Mock Drafts in particular is that they provide you with a ranking or grade at the end of it. That grade is based on the projections (educated guess) made by the creator of the software. Well if their educated guesses were correct you could simply win every draft by allowing your website of choice to Auto Draft for you. I think everyone knows that auto drafting rarely works out well.

What Average Draft Position has successfully done is create opportunities for savvy Managers to take advantage of Players who have been incorrectly projected by the software creators, and therefore drafted later by the legions of poor mock drafters.

Veteran Fantasy Gold

There are 4 players in this category that have the ability, situation, and opportunity to provide you with an advantage over your opponents. All 4 of them are going in the 8th Round of drafts or later, and in some cases aren’t even being drafted at all in some leagues.

Adrian Peterson

Undeniably one of the best to ever play the position, and despite his age still puts up fantasy relevant numbers. Last Season he had over 1000 rushing yards, another 200 yards through the air, and 8 total touchdowns. Those are RB2 numbers, and last season he wasn’t even drafted in most leagues. So much for ADP. Sure Derrius Guice is back, but you can’t expect Washington to just drop a full workload in his lap. Not to mention there’s no guarantee that Guice will remain healthy all season. My guess is that at worst Adrian Peterson splits carries with Guice this season. That would make him a viable flex starter, and a serviceable backup in case your roster gets diminished by injury. If Guice isn’t 100% then Adrian Peterson becomes an RB2 once again. It never hurts to have a couple of those on the roster.

Tom Brady

Brady has been going undrafted a lot this season, and that shouldn’t be the case. I’m not telling you to make him your stating QB. Draft him as a backup to begin the season, and he’s also a great spot starter against weaker teams. His numbers weren’t spectacular last season, but they weren’t bad either. Everyone keeps harping on about the loss of Gronk but I actually prefer his targets available to him this season. Edelman, N’Keal Harry, Josh Gordon, Demaryius Thomas, James White, and Sony Michel. If the majority of those players stay healthy, and out of trouble that’s ridiculous! Now given those names I know that’s a big IF. What are you really risking though if you select Brady in the late rounds of your draft. You know what the best part is? The Patriots have a history of running up the score against weaker teams. Teams like the Miami Dolphins, Buffalo Bills, and New York Jets. It’s no wonder they get to the playoffs with relative ease every single season.

Larry Fitzgerald & DeSean Jackson

I listed these 2 veterans together because they are in similar situations. Both of them are playing for a team they feel incredibly comfortable with. Both have the ability to completely take over a game when given the opportunity. Both have to adjust to an offense they weren’t in last season. The best part is that both are being overshadowed by other players on their team in drafts. Christian Kirk is being drafted way before Larry Fitzgerald in most drafts. I understand the upside with Christian Kirk but sometimes a high floor is what’s needed, and Fitzgerald gives you that. With a new QB, Offense, and Head Coach you might want to feed one of the most sure-handed receivers in history the ball. Just saying.

With Carson Wentz coming back from injury the Philadelphia Eagles will do whatever they can to keep him healthy. One such way is to keep Defenses honest. I expect a balanced attack between Run and Pass. The only way you can maintain that balance and win games is to have success at both. Last season that wasn’t the case so the Eagles addressed it in the off season. To improve their run game they brought in Jordan Howard, and drafted Miles Sanders. To prevent defenses from stacking the box they brought back DeSean Jackson. You want to limit the pressure on Wentz, and provide him with a deep target to take the top off defenses. There’s no better way than adding someone like DeSean Jackson. He will play a similar role for Wentz that Hill plays for Mahomes, and you saw how that worked out.

Opportunity is knocking

Two more players that find themselves in advantageous situations are Dede Westbrook, and Marquez Valdes-Scantling.

Dede Westbrook had a decent season in his second year with Jacksonville. He finished with 66 catches for 717 yards, and 5 touchdowns. Not bad numbers considering Blake Bortles was under center having a down season. About the only thing worse than Blake Bortles having a down season is Nathan Peterman having one. With the off season acquisition of superbowl MVP Nick Foles things are bound to improve. How much will they improve is the real question< and so far the majority of drafters out there don’t expect much. I would expect a 20% improvement at least, with far more opportunities in the red zone. It wouldn’t surprise me if he finished the season with around 900 yards and 8 touchdowns. His ceiling is significantly higher though. I’ll draft him with confidence.

Marquez Valdes-Scantling could very well be Aaron Rodgers number 2 target this season. That should be enough to peak your interest right there. He has looked unstoppable in the preseason. Granted it is the preseason but that’s a good indicator that he’s feeling completely confident entering the season. Aaron Rodgers also seems especially motivated this year. The entire NFC should be worried about that. If you can remember the break out seasons that Randall Cobb had as Aaron Rodgers number 2. Then you know what is possible for Marquez this season. 1000 yards and double digit touchdowns aren’t out of the question.

YOU CAN TRUST ADP IF YOU WANT – BUT IF YOU ARE SERIOUS ABOUT WINNING – I SUGGEST THAT YOU DON’T !!!

Categories
GOLF

CAN YOU PLAY TOO MUCH GOLF?

Yes and No

Golfing has obviously become a large part of what I do. Whether it’s researching new equipment, new technology, keeping up with the PGA & LPGA, practicing, or playing. Every day I’m doing something golf related. When it comes to playing, I play a lot. Sounds like heaven to some of you I’m sure. Well over the last couple of years I’ve realized something. It is possible to play too much golf. I’ve personally experienced what it can do, and seen the affects of too much golf on others.

There needs to be a Balance

Before I get into the explanation of things, this really only applies to people who are serious about improving at golf. If your goal is just to go out with friends and have fun? Then playing as much as possible if you enjoy it is fine. Now if you are more like me, and are serious about improving your game then there needs to be a balance.

The balance that I’m referring to is between the amount you play, and the amount you practice. There are a number of ways to improve your game, but the most effective means is through practice. Don’t get me wrong, playing does help you improve as well. For the most part though improving while playing requires success. Hitting a great Bunker shot is a perfect example. Generally speaking the majority of golfers take a little extra time to prepare for a bunker shot. You make sure your stance is perfect, and you aren’t allowed to ground your club so you take extra time to insure your setup is right. Then when you are sure everything is perfect you take your shot. When it works you know exactly why. What happens when things don’t work out on the course? You have done everything you believed you were supposed to do, and the end result is a total failure. Do you elect to do things differently the next time? Of course not! You convince yourself that maybe your timing was a little off, or you were a tad too close to the ball, or you lifted your head just before impact, or any number of excuses. The reality is that unless you get really lucky, you probably won’t fix the issue before the end of the Round. You know where you could have fixed it though? You could have fixed it out on the Range, or at your favourite practice area.

Where failure is fine

It doesn’t really bother me all that much when I hit a terrible shot during practice. It’s not going to affect my handicap. It isn’t that embarrassing. It provides me with a sense of what not to do. The last two Rounds of golf I played I was slicing quite a few of my drives. This is nothing new for me, but earlier in the season I had almost completely fixed my slice. Unfortunately after the first Round of golf I wasn’t able to get out to the Practice Range. I knew at the beginning of the second Round of golf that I was probably going to struggle with my driver, and struggle I did. I hit about 7 drives that Round, and not one of them found the fairway. You know why they didn’t? They didn’t because nobody wants to try something totally different during a Round. I’d rather miss the fairway by 5 yards, than completely shank my drive to the middle of nowhere, or even worse hit it 5 yards total by almost whiffing. If I was at the Range I would just try different setups, and swings until I figured out what was working. Then once I hit a few consecutively good shots I could go play my next Round with confidence.

Confidence is key

You have probably heard me say that confidence is the most important thing in golf so many times that you’re sick of it. Well it is! When people ask me how far I hit my Driver I give them two answers. I hit it around 250 yards at the Range, and around 220 yards on the course. Why two answers you ask? It’s simple. At the Range there’s nothing to worry about except how far you hit it, so you swing freely. Out on the course there’s hazards, rough, your score, strangers watching, and the understanding that if you hit a bad shot that you can’t just hit another one. So when I’m out on the course I generally don’t swing as hard, and that goes for most beginners. In fact I generally hit every club in my bag about 5 to 10 yards shorter out on the course.

So what’s the right amount?

Play as much as you would like, provided you practice at least half as often as you play. If something is off with your game then practice more often until you get it right. That way you won’t develop bad habits that are hard to break. Personally I try to practice more than I play, but with the Canadian golf season being so short it’s difficult at times. There are plenty of ways to make practice fun, so find what works for you and stick to it.